The GM thread

[Bellhorn04]

There is zero chance DD deals Betts. So if the Sox stay under the same leadership, he’s staying. If the GM changes, then Betts is a goner

 

The rumors have the Sox listening to offers. We'll see.

[notin]

I’ve played around with http://www.baseballtradevalues.com. The main issue is Betts trade value on that site is likely to drop at season’s end. Of course, the value of many of the other players will drop as well. But let’s pretend all drop equally and these deals make sense. Which do you prefer?

 

1. To San Diego for Hunter Renfroe and AA RHP Luis Patino?

2. To LAD for Julio Urias, Will Smith and Andrew Toles?

3. To Atlanta for AA CF Drew Water and AA RHSP Kyle Wright?

4. To CWS for Reynaldo Lopez and AA 2b Nick Madrigal?

 

I like 1 and 4...

[jacksonianmarch]

The rumors have the Sox listening to offers. We'll see.

 

The question is, who is actually listening?

[Slasher9]

They all get raises in arbitration unless they settle beforehand.

 

The only way Bradley takes less money is if Scott Boras advises him to do so, which is significantly less likely than a pig getting his pilot’s license. And Bradley didn’t hire Boras to reject his advice...

 

And there was a time no player ever took the QO. If he goes to arbitration his salary will go down for 2020 (pending a hot streak that gets him to .750). Boras will try and lockdown final year at same salary as 2019. If we are resetting we will need it to be lower. There’s a chance.....

[notin]

And there was a time no player ever took the QO. If he goes to arbitration his salary will go down for 2020 (pending a hot streak that gets him to .750). Boras will try and lockdown final year at same salary as 2019. If we are resetting we will need it to be lower. There’s a chance.....

 

I doubt it’s lower. JBJ isn’t the first player to go into an arbitration year after having a worse season.

 

The bottom line for the Sox is, if he doesn’t accept their offer, they have to offer arbitration to even see if it will be lower. Given the history, can they risk it?

[notin]

The question is, who is actually listening?

 

Safe bet plenty of teams have interest in a former MVP capable of putting them over the top. Pick any team that makes the postseason this year and doesn’t win (except the Yankees) and they’ll have interest in Betts.

 

To me the only question is, will Dombrowski’s asking price reflect that it’s only for one year of Betts? Or will he want a package that normally gets you 3 or 4 years of a 27yo former MVP?

[jacksonianmarch]

You miss my point. I’m asking if it’s Henry or DD doing the listening

[notin]

You miss my point. I’m asking if it’s Henry or DD doing the listening

 

Hopefully both. But I doubt anything happens anyway...

[notin]

And there was a time no player ever took the QO. If he goes to arbitration his salary will go down for 2020 (pending a hot streak that gets him to .750). Boras will try and lockdown final year at same salary as 2019. If we are resetting we will need it to be lower. There’s a chance.....

 

FWIW, this is JBJ’s fourth arbitration year. His OPS has dropped every year. He has also gotten raises every year....

[jacksonianmarch]

The team I call up is the Mets. They’re all in for next year with Thor and Stroman being FAs. They’ll be willing to sell out especially with their GM

[notin]

The team I call up is the Mets. They’re all in for next year with Thor and Stroman being FAs. They’ll be willing to sell out especially with their GM

 

The Mets or the Dodgers, whose window closes a little more with every ache and pain Kershaw feels.

 

I think the Mets really lack the SP to give p, whereas the Dodgers might be willing to part with Urias, especially if they don’t win this year, and much more likely if they lose in the WS for the third year in a row.

 

Also I think Syndergaard is FA after 2021, not 2020...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

So let's pass on Wheeler, and sign W.Smith instead. Smith is the Red Sox closer next year, with Workman and Hernandez as the 8th inning guys, and Taylor and Brasier/Barnes as the 7th inning guys. The Red Sox can trade Bradley Jr. for a reliever, strengthening the Red Sox bullpen (and bullpen depth) even more. M.Walden is another arm.

 

Arguably, that takes care of the bullpen, but the Red Sox still have a giant hole in the rotation. In-house options would include B.Johnson (who can never stay healthy), Velazquez (who sucks), and S.Wright (can't count on him). In other words, the in-house options are pretty lousy. I'm not sure what the Red Sox plan to do with T.Houck. Could the Red Sox put together a prospect package led by Dalbec and Mata OR Chavis and Mata for a really good cost-controlled starter? I would hate to trade Mata, but if I can acquire quality SP who is ready now and cost-controlled I would be willing to give him up. Of course, I would first try to acquire an SP via trade by offering up Dalbec or Chavis. I would only add Mata to the deal if the SP I get back warrants it.

Edited August 10, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

The team I call up is the Mets. They’re all in for next year with Thor and Stroman being FAs. They’ll be willing to sell out especially with their GM

 

This one does work out with today’s values:

 

Dodgers get: Mookie Betts

Pirates get: Catcher Will Smith, 2b Jeter Downs, Darwinzon Hernandez

Red Sox get: Julio Urias, Felipe Vazquez

Edited August 10, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

So let's pass on Wheeler, and sign W.Smith instead. Smith is the Red Sox closer next year, with Workman and Hernandez as the 8th inning guys, and Taylor and Brasier/Barnes as the 7th inning guys. The Red Sox can trade Bradley Jr. for a reliever, strengthening the Red Sox bullpen (and bullpen depth) even more. M.Walden is another arm.

 

Arguably, that takes care of the bullpen, but the Red Sox still have a giant hole in the rotation. In-house options would include B.Johnson (who can never stay healthy), Velazquez (who sucks), and S.Wright (can't count on him). In other words, the in-house options are pretty lousy. I'm not sure what the Red Sox plan to do with T.Houck. Could the Red Sox put together a prospect package led by Dalbec and Mata OR Chavis and Mata for a really good cost-controlled starter? I would hate to trade Mata, but if I can acquire quality SP who is ready now and cost-controlled I would be willing to give him up. Of course, I would first try to acquire an SP via trade by offering up Dalbec or Chavis. I would only add Mata to the deal if the SP I get back warrants it.

 

You seem to be answering your own questions by seeing that it is impossible to fill all our big needs and stay under the max line. We'll always have a big gaping hole somewhere. We could entirely empty our farm in trades(not what I want), spend to $1 under the max line and still not be the faves.

 

It's time to punt.

[moonslav59]

That may be the question here but I'm not as certain as some are that it's the question in DD's mind.

 

DD may very well be thinking that losing both JBJ & Mookie in a two year period (IOW, destroying what may be the best defensive OF in baseball) may be being penny wise and pound foolish. I see the Sox paying JBJ's arbitration raise and waiting another year until the situation with Mookie is resolved before making any decisions on JBJ.

 

So, you don't see a reset in the next two winters?

 

Will we go over the second line or the max line?

[moonslav59]

FWIW, this is JBJ’s fourth arbitration year. His OPS has dropped every year. He has also gotten raises every year....

 

4th year arbs are almost guaranteed a raise.

 

He'll get $10M. My question is about the tradability of that contract.

[OH FOY]

Agree 100%.

 

Although one of the best fan-proposed non-rumors I would think about pulling the trigger on is Hunter Renfroe and Luis Patino from the Padres...

 

Disagree, the longer you wait for a Positional Player, the worse the returns or not what should be expected. Pitcher different. Especially Rental.

Edited August 10, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

4th year arbs are almost guaranteed a raise.

 

He'll get $10M. My question is about the tradability of that contract.

 

If his previous raises are any guide, he will be in the $11-12mill range....

[moonslav59]

If his previous raises are any guide, he will be in the $11-12mill range....

 

I think he'll get $10 to 10.5M.

 

I'm beginning to think the non tender choice is more likely than offering arb. (I'm not quite there yet, since teams did ask about JBJ last winter.)

[oldtimer]

I think he'll get $10 to 10.5M.

 

I'm beginning to think the non tender choice is more likely than offering arb. (I'm not quite there yet, since teams did ask about JBJ last winter.)

 

Hard to believe another team would pay him 10.5 Mil and also trade a piece.

[moonslav59]

Hard to believe another team would pay him 10.5 Mil and also trade a piece.

 

Word was that some wanted him last year at $9M, but we did not like what they offered.

 

True, he's a year older and has one less year of control, but I'm still thinking at least 1 GM would take a 1 year risk.

 

I'm not expecting an elite prospect in return, but anything decent might help our farm (or pen).

[S5Dewey]

So, you don't see a reset in the next two winters?

 

Will we go over the second line or the max line?

 

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand.

 

I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash.

 

The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now.

 

In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position.

 

Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020.

 

To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season.

[moonslav59]

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand. -S5Dewey

 

I hope you don't think I am part of a group that minimizes the value of defense, especially up the middle and in Fenway's RF. As you may know, JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since he was called up. I love great defense, but I also recognize there are many excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and some are less expensive and maybe even more steady on offense. I've also never wavered from my position that we should pay Betts top dollar on a long term contract. One reason for that is his great defense in a park that demands top defense.

 

I'm looking at the budget. I'm looking at JBJ's age and slightly declining defensive skills. I'm looking at his continued offensive peaks and extended valleys. But, mostly I'm looking at his projected arb cost and our frightenly high budget going forward. I think we need to reset within the next 2 years, in order to rebuild more quickly and to promote a better extended future for our budget and competitiveness. I'm thinking JBJ has to go to have any chance at resetting AND at keeping Betts (or replacing Betts with a high-priced FA).

 

I'd love to keep both. Maybe we can not offer JBJ arb, but still sign him (for less). I certainly want to keep Betts and have suggested a 10 year offer, which is probably more than anyone here would give him.

 

I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash.

 

I don't think we reset this winter either, but I think that's a mistake. I'm not for "trashing" this team. I want to reset, so WE CAN KEEP BETTS. I want to keep the core in place, reset next year, spend big for 2021, including a Betts extension, and with a reset budget, we can spend large for 2-3 more years. With a decent draft pick this year and next, maybe we can build the farm up better than we did when we won the division 3 years in a row and had draft penalties and reduced international pool monies.

 

The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now.

 

I'm hopefulm Workman continues pitching well, but he's a FA after next year. It may be hard keeping JBJ, Betts and role guys like Workman. I'm hopeful our starters can rebound next year, but at their ages, I don't think we can count on it. I'm hopeful Barnes rebounds. I'd like to see us extend or re-sign Betts plus sign a top closer for 2021.

 

A one year reset and rebuild might just work.

 

In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position.

 

Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020.

 

To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season.

 

I want to keep the core, too, but I want to be good for a long time, and I don't think spending our way out of every problem is a sustainable philosophy. Henry seems to be hinting at that realization recently.

 

I agree that the Sox will go over the second tax line next year but not the max. We will not come close to winning. We will choose to reset after 2020 and lose JBJ and Betts.

 

I don't see how we can get a great closer, keep JBJ and fill some other needs enough to be a top 4 or 5 contender next year. Even a closer this year would not have been enough.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand.

 

I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash.

 

Excellent post. I think it is ludicrous that some people are even debating this. I'm pretty confident that the Red Sox are not.

 

The economics didn't just appear out of thin air. The Red Sox saw this coming and continued to sign Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Sale. They are not entering a rebuilding phase now.

 

Dewey, what do you think of the idea of signing W.Smith in the offseason? He would be the Red Sox new closer. Smith is generally effective and young enough. According to the math, the Red Sox could sign him and still remain under the 237 million mark. Once the Red Sox sign Smith, the rest of the bullpen falls in line with guys like Workman, Taylor, and Hernandez behind him. I would think that the odds are pretty good that either Barnes or Brasier has a solid comeback year next season, we know the nature of relief pitching and the up-and-down cycles on a yearly basis.

[notin]

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand.

 

I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash.

 

The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now.

 

In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position.

 

Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020.

 

To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season.

 

I don’t see it.

 

The Sox have roughly $130mill committed to 7 players next year. Plus several arbitration cases besides Bradley that include Betts, Benintendi, Barnes, and ERod, none of whom are getting non-tendered and who could all add up to about $50-60mill. That puts the Sox at potentially $190mill for 11 players. Add in benefits and it’s $205mill with 29 salaries left to account for. Wright will be non-tendered. Possibly Hembree as well. And Bradley is possiblity, especially if JD Martinez doesn’t opt out this year (which would be unwise).

 

I don’t think Betts goes anywhere, which might also be unwise. But it’s not like once Bradley is non-tendered, he’s necessarily gone. He might be brought back for less. And if he isn’t, the Sox are not going to lay with just two outfielders. Those pitchers who love his defense might find Juan Legares or Cameron Maybin equally lovable for a budget conscious team...

[S5Dewey]

I hope you don't think I am part of a group that minimizes the value of defense, especially up the middle and in Fenway's RF. As you may know, JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since he was called up. I love great defense, but I also recognize there are many excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and some are less expensive and maybe even more steady on offense. I've also never wavered from my position that we should pay Betts top dollar on a long term contract. One reason for that is his great defense in a park that demands top defense.

 

I've known all along that you and I are on board with JBJ and what he brings to 'up the middle' defense. I also agree that he may not be the best CF'er in baseball (although some of those guys who've made a career out of baseball might disagree with that). However, there's a very real possibility that if JBJ isn't a part of the team in 2020 we may not only not have JBJ, we might also not have any of those guys who are as good as he is. The fact that those guys are out there doesn't automatically make them a part of the Red Sox.

 

I'm looking at the budget. I'm looking at JBJ's age and slightly declining defensive skills. I'm looking at his continued offensive peaks and extended valleys. But, mostly I'm looking at his projected arb cost and our frightenly high budget going forward. I think we need to reset within the next 2 years, in order to rebuild more quickly and to promote a better extended future for our budget and competitiveness. I'm thinking JBJ has to go to have any chance at resetting AND at keeping Betts (or replacing Betts with a high-priced FA).

 

I know I keep saying this but I sometimes feel like nobody is listening: If JBJ is non-tendered there is a real chance that we will be without both JBJ and Mookie in 2021... and no guarantee that the players who replace them will be nearly as good as either of them. And since I'm no rocket scientist I'm thinking that DD may be thinking the same way.

 

I'd love to keep both. Maybe we can not offer JBJ arb, but still sign him (for less). I certainly want to keep Betts and have suggested a 10 year offer, which is probably more than anyone here would give him.

 

I'm with you on that. I'd give him a 10 year offer tomorrow, and I'd also buy out Devers arb years and extend him, but I'm not sure we could afford to do all of that.

 

I don't think we reset this winter either, but I think that's a mistake. I'm not for "trashing" this team. I want to reset, so WE CAN KEEP BETTS. I want to keep the core in place, reset next year, spend big for 2021, including a Betts extension, and with a reset budget, we can spend large for 2-3 more years. With a decent draft pick this year and next, maybe we can build the farm up better than we did when we won the division 3 years in a row and had draft penalties and reduced international pool monies.

 

See, I don't think not resetting this year is a mistake at all. Teams like this don't come along every few years. We have the core we need. All we need is for the pitching staff to come through like they have in the past and we can reasonably expect (at least two of) them to do. As I see it we have one more year of that window we've been talking about and we should make the best of it.

 

I'm hopeful Workman continues pitching well, but he's a FA after next year. It may be hard keeping JBJ, Betts and role guys like Workman. I'm hopeful our starters can rebound next year, but at their ages, I don't think we can count on it. I'm hopeful Barnes rebounds. I'd like to see us extend or re-sign Betts plus sign a top closer for 2021. A one year reset and rebuild might just work.

I do agree that sooner or later there's going to be a piper to be paid but IMO the time to do it is 2021, not 2020. When that times comes there are going to be some very difficult decisions to be made regarding players like Devers, Sale, Bogaerts, and JBJ and/or Mookie but right now that window is open and there's a warm breeze flowing through it. Just like "Don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. It might rain tomorrow", I'd say 'Don't botch a chance to win another ring in 2020 in fear of the cost in 2021. Some team may be unbeatable in 2021'.

 

I want to keep the core, too, but I want to be good for a long time, and I don't think spending our way out of every problem is a sustainable philosophy. Henry seems to be hinting at that realization recently.

Even a closer this year would not have been enough.

 

You know that saying you 'want the Sox to be good for a long time... ...is not a sustainable philosophy', is a contradiction, don't you? I don't just want them to be good. I want them to be REAL good. I watched them have 'good' years having that philosopy for 81 years. I've tried the "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" and now I've found that I prefer being the bride even if it means having years like 2014 & 2015. That's the frustrating thing about 2019 for me. This team is not only not going to win their division, they're not bad enough to profit from it!

Edited August 11, 2019 by S5Dewey

[S5Dewey]

Dewey, what do you think of the idea of signing W.Smith in the offseason? He would be the Red Sox new closer. Smith is generally effective and young enough. According to the math, the Red Sox could sign him and still remain under the 237 million mark. Once the Red Sox sign Smith, the rest of the bullpen falls in line with guys like Workman, Taylor, and Hernandez behind him. I would think that the odds are pretty good that either Barnes or Brasier has a solid comeback year next season, we know the nature of relief pitching and the up-and-down cycles on a yearly basis.

 

I don't know what kind of a salary Smith would command, or if we could even afford him. I try to defer to Mr.Moon on topics of salary since he's the one here who has his finger on the payroll.

I'm now conflicted on the topic of having a lights-out closer. Remember, if we had Kimbrel this year (and his salary) he'd have spent far too much time on the bench wishing we had a lead going into the 9th. Our problem hasn't been that we don't have a closer. Our problem is that those guys in the bullpen have blown too many games before the 9th inning. And yes, Kimmie, I also think that much of that MIGHT be due to the fact that our starters can only go five innings. Or maybe it is that those guys in the pen just plain suck.

Based on what I've seen this year I'd rather have Brandon Workman and his salary as the closer as opposed to Craig Kimbrel and his salary.

[S5Dewey]

I don’t see it.

 

The Sox have roughly $130mill committed to 7 players next year. Plus several arbitration cases besides Bradley that include Betts, Benintendi, Barnes, and ERod, none of whom are getting non-tendered and who could all add up to about $50-60mill. That puts the Sox at potentially $190mill for 11 players. Add in benefits and it’s $205mill with 29 salaries left to account for. Wright will be non-tendered. Possibly Hembree as well. And Bradley is possiblity, especially if JD Martinez doesn’t opt out this year (which would be unwise).

 

I don’t think Betts goes anywhere, which might also be unwise. But it’s not like once Bradley is non-tendered, he’s necessarily gone. He might be brought back for less. And if he isn’t, the Sox are not going to lay with just two outfielders. Those pitchers who love his defense might find Juan Legares or Cameron Maybin equally lovable for a budget conscious team...

 

Aw, c'mon. When you say that "it’s not like once Bradley is non-tendered, he’s necessarily gone. He might be brought back for less", you're just grasping at straws. This was the same attitude we took with Jon Lester, remember? "Let's let him go and then re-sign him in the off season" - and how did THAT work out???

 

Are you prepared to guarantee that Legares or Maybin are available to play for the Sox? It's easy to pick these names out of Baseball Reference or the like but getting them to Boston is another story.

 

The problem is that we don't have the luxury of waiting to see what Mookie is going to do before we decide about JBJ. I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that Mookie is leaving so I'm thinking about what the team looks like without him. What I see is an adequate RF'er (a/k/a somebody else's average CF'er with some pop) with his defensive inadequacies made up for by JBJ's range. I think we're in agreement that JBJ's range might be underrated because Mookie makes plays on balls in the gap that most RF'ers wouldn't get to.

 

And OTOH, if I'm wrong and Mookie stays it could make parting with JBJ's salary and defense more palatable in the future.

[notin]

Aw, c'mon. When you say that "it’s not like once Bradley is non-tendered, he’s necessarily gone. He might be brought back for less", you're just grasping at straws. This was the same attitude we took with Jon Lester, remember? "Let's let him go and then re-sign him in the off season" - and how did THAT work out???

 

No. Not like Lester, who was offered obviously less as one of the top free agents available. Like it or not, I doubt many teams view Bradley as a bargain at $12mill. And it’s hardly “grasping at straws.” Players who get non-tendered re-sign with their former team every year. Last year, Mike Fiers, Matt Bush, Caleb Joseph, Adrian Sampson, and a few others all re-signed with the team that declined to tender them a contract.

 

Are you prepared to guarantee that Legares or Maybin are available to play for the Sox? It's easy to pick these names out of Baseball Reference or the like but getting them to Boston is another story.

 

Legares sand Maybin are both free agents (assuming the Mets decline Legares option) and neither are going to command a lot of money. If offered a starting chance in Boston, there’s a good chance the Sox could get one or an equal. And there are others.

 

And while I can’t the two names I mentioned as examples, I can guarantee that DD won’t non-tender Bradley and then leave the position unmanned.

 

 

The problem is that we don't have the luxury of waiting to see what Mookie is going to do before we decide about JBJ. I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that Mookie is leaving so I'm thinking about what the team looks like without him. What I see is an adequate RF'er (a/k/a somebody else's average CF'er with some pop) with his defensive inadequacies made up for by JBJ's range. I think we're in agreement that JBJ's range might be underrated because Mookie makes plays on balls in the gap that most RF'ers wouldn't get to.[/QUote]

 

I think just moving the last year of Mookie might be the right move. I have very little confidence in his re-signing. But I can see why he wouldn’t be and I think DD keeps Betts. I think the budget works against Bradley - who DD tried to move last off-season for financial reasons - and the Sox might be in the market for a new CF. I would prefer a defensive player but DD might take note that he can get by with less defense and more pop (which is something he likes to do).

 

And OTOH, if I'm wrong and Mookie stays it could make parting with JBJ's salary and defense more palatable in the future.

 

I think the Sox make every effort to keep Betts and there are a few contract casualties along the way, which is why it might be unwise...

[oldtimer]

I read a number of these responses in the thread that fans think that this team, which was great last year and saw a significant downturn this year will somehow regain their form in 2020 provided JH adds still more dollars to the already bloated budget. I don't see our pitching staff (starters and BP) as improving with age and perhaps we replace a starter and relief pitcher and we can be competitive again. I don't believe it and would prefer a course of action I suggested before.

 

Keep the young core players. That would include Mookie provide he can be signed for a contract in keeping with his value to the team. This is a team and also a business. If Mookie won't accept that kind of offer and goes for a longer contract for more dollars (some team may offer that), then we should not stand in his way but also we should extract the best deal in that process.

 

I would not resign players who are unlikely to help us going forward in 2021 and beyond. That includes Porcello, Cashner, Moreland, Nunez (gone now anyway), Pearce, and possibly Holt. Many of those players are getting older and won't be around when we strengthen in 2021.

 

Since JBJ got a special mention, I would also try to trade him as his value to the team is primarily defensive and at 10 Mil (projected) I think he is more expensive than what we can get at that position. We may even have an up and comer in Duran that can do it. JBJ has been, continues to be and will be in future, a very streaky hitter whose appears to be worse this year.

 

We may have to face the loss of JDM. He is having a solid year and may try to opt out. It seems like he is getting well rewarded as primarily a DH but what do I know about the pay these guys are getting paid. His status is beyond our control.

 

I'm ambivalent about Leon. He is a good enough defensive catcher and gets paid a small enough not to worry about, but I would keep my eyes open for a replacement.

 

The BP also needs a partial overhaul in 2020. Maybe the value of who we get versus who we lose would counterbalance, with the exception of a closer.

 

In summary, I would like to keep this team at least competitive in 2020 but believe it will be the right time to start rebuilding while we wait for the termination of contracts like Pedroia, perhaps Price and others aging performers. I also believe DD is not the right person to start the restructure of the team, including our farm system. He utilized our resources to the fullest to make us competitive and to get us a WS. Now we have to rebuild our resources and get our spending back in line and I doubt he has the nature to achieve that.