The GM thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now sox fans, the 2019 season looks to be slipping away due to the pitching staff. While the starting rotation has entirely s*** the bed in a surprising fashion, the pen was expected to be the dumpster fire they are. With all the financial and arbitration obligations expiring or renewing, the Sox are starting at a small pile of cash with which to upgrade. I know a lot of Sox fans are advocating a full scale tear down, but this is the GM thread and your Gm isn’t that kind of guy. You’re gonna know the FO’s direction based on who remains at the helm. If DD is your GM, you’re pushing your chips to the middle of the table and looking to win in 2020. If DD rides off into the sunset, then you’re rebuilding.

 

If the Sox keep DD, my assumption is that JBJ is either dealt or non-tendered and with all the expiring contracts and arb renewals, the Sox will have something like $25-30 mil or so to play with before hitting the final threshold. My bet is he signs Keuchel or a player of his ilk (mid rotation innings eater) to replace Porcello for half that AAV (about $15 mil) and then uses the $10-$15 mil left to acquire 1-2 back end pen options. I highly doubt he spends anything on the lineup. Hernandez will take 2b. Chavis will take 1b. He will try to extend Betts, although I doubt heavily he entertains dealing him if they cannot come to an agreement. Not his style.

 

If the Sox find a new GM, JBJ is definitely jettisoned. I bet Betts is dealt for a haul. I would also expect ERod to be dealt for a haul. He’s got only one extra year of control than Betts and guys with two years of control bring back far more than true rentals. The Sox would dangle Price, as he’s been really good for two years running (albeit not for many innings) and throw in about half his remaining contract in cash to get someone of value. They’d hope to rehab Sale because he’s not worth much right now with his huge contract starting and teams having no idea who he is. Same goes for Eovaldi. The Sox would build around Devers, Xander, Beni, and Chavis.

[OH FOY]

Also I would do 2 things now, I would move Dalbec to 1st at Pawtucket, he'll never beat out Devers. 2nd I would say screw it I would make Hernandez my closer. I want to see him now. Eovaldi back to Rotation. They will help out next year, that's the important thing. If not, at least you'll know he's not the Closer we need.

[notin]

Also I would do 2 things now, I would move Dalbec to 1st at Pawtucket, he'll never beat out Devers. 2nd I would say screw it I would make Hernandez my closer. I want to see him now. Eovaldi back to Rotation. They will help out next year, that's the important thing. If not, at least you'll know he's not the Closer we need.

 

I think the Eovaldi/closer thing was largely because Eovaldi couldn’t handle a starter workload and it was never meant to be a permanent solution.

 

The Sox don’t need to determine if Hernandez can be a closer. They need to determine if he can throw strikes. If he keeps walking hitters, he’s more problem than solution...

[OH FOY]

What people don't know is up to 2018, he was not a walk machine. He threw strikes. That tells me he is capable of throwing strikes consistently, but he might have changed something recently. He's only 22 years old, sort of expect, a little inconsistency. But what you can take away is the strong arm, that can walk the bases full, then strike out next 3.

He does not give up HRS, that always good trait for a Closer.

Got nothing to lose at this point, unless their is another Play-off spot I'm not aware of.

[Kimmi]

The GM and Cora are not going to be fired before the 2020 season.

 

Dombrowski is not going to do a fire sale, and the Sox are not going to do a complete rebuild. They may get rid of a couple of guys, like JBJ, but they will make moves to keep this team competitive for next year. We will still have most pieces in place.

[notin]

The GM and Cora are not going to be fired before the 2020 season.

 

Dombrowski is not going to do a fire sale, and the Sox are not going to do a complete rebuild. They may get rid of a couple of guys, like JBJ, but they will make moves to keep this team competitive for next year. We will still have most pieces in place.

 

I have very little expectations for change in 2020.

 

I expect minimal roster turnover (not that overhauls are needed). I expect minimal coaching changes. I even think there’s a good chance the “new” 1b is Mitch Moreland.

 

And I absolutely don’t expect any bullpen acquisitions.

 

I believe it’s time to non-tender Bradley (unless a trade can be worked out prior). I think it might actually be necessary to trade Betts, but that depends on a lot of financial stuff of which I have only cursory knowledge.

 

I also expect neither of those things to happen.

 

I’m not expecting change in 2020. Not in players. Not in staff. And not in the standings...

[Bellhorn04]

I have very little expectations for change in 2020.

 

I expect minimal roster turnover (not that overhauls are needed). I expect minimal coaching changes. I even think there’s a good chance the “new” 1b is Mitch Moreland.

 

And I absolutely don’t expect any bullpen acquisitions.

 

I believe it’s time to non-tender Bradley (unless a trade can be worked out prior). I think it might actually be necessary to trade Betts, but that depends on a lot of financial stuff of which I have only cursory knowledge.

 

I also expect neither of those things to happen.

 

I’m not expecting change in 2020. Not in players. Not in staff. And not in the standings...

 

The change will probably come when you least expect it.

[FredLynn]

The GM and Cora are not going to be fired before the 2020 season.

 

Dombrowski is not going to do a fire sale, and the Sox are not going to do a complete rebuild. They may get rid of a couple of guys, like JBJ, but they will make moves to keep this team competitive for next year. We will still have most pieces in place.

 

I agree. Sale, Price, and Porcello all had bad years, but there is still plenty left in their tanks. They will probably all have bounceback years. All of them were well off their career norms in ERA: Sale: 4.68/3.04; Price: 3.86/3.28; Porcello: 5.74/4.35. While I do not expect all of them to reach their career norms I think they will do better than this year. Add to that a hopefully healthy Eovaldi and the ERod of 2019 and I think we can reasonably expect a much better year from our starters in 2020. The offense isn't going to be a problem. I can see DD constructing a bullpen that is much better by possibly trading away some of the offensive pieces we have. We probably have one more year before a rebuild is necessary. As for the GM and Cora: I give them one more year. If the Sox fail to make the playoffs in 2020 I would fire both of them.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have very little expectations for change in 2020.

 

I expect minimal roster turnover (not that overhauls are needed). I expect minimal coaching changes. I even think there’s a good chance the “new” 1b is Mitch Moreland.

 

And I absolutely don’t expect any bullpen acquisitions.

 

I believe it’s time to non-tender Bradley (unless a trade can be worked out prior). I think it might actually be necessary to trade Betts, but that depends on a lot of financial stuff of which I have only cursory knowledge.

 

I also expect neither of those things to happen.

 

I’m not expecting change in 2020. Not in players. Not in staff. And not in the standings...

 

I actually hope DD pushes his chips into the middle. I hope he spends. I hope he trades. I hope he props 2020 up to the best of his might. The more he spends, the more he deals, the deeper the cliff will be

[bosoxmal]

DD works for John Henry, amd

 

Porcello is down to pitch Monday!!! I were manager he would be on the 10 day s*** list.

[notin]

I actually hope DD pushes his chips into the middle. I hope he spends. I hope he trades. I hope he props 2020 up to the best of his might. The more he spends, the more he deals, the deeper the cliff will be

 

Sure in your Wet Pinstripe Dreams. But it’s possible the spending and deals bring the cliff in.

 

Remember the Yankee farm was pretty bland before dealing two relief pitchers. The Sox can do better by dealing one MVP...

[bosoxmal]

DD has to take charge. But he isn't. Pitchers are not covering first, and behind the plate. Good hitters are not running out ground balls.

 

PORCELLO is down to pitch Monday's game!! Really? Talk about an endorsement!

 

"Nice guys finish last", Cora.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sure in your Wet Pinstripe Dreams. But it’s possible the spending and deals bring the cliff in.

 

Remember the Yankee farm was pretty bland before dealing two relief pitchers. The Sox can do better by dealing one MVP...

 

Bland? Judge, Sanchez, Andujar, Severino. Bland?

Edited August 4, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[Kimmi]

I have very little expectations for change in 2020.

 

I expect minimal roster turnover (not that overhauls are needed). I expect minimal coaching changes. I even think there’s a good chance the “new” 1b is Mitch Moreland.

 

And I absolutely don’t expect any bullpen acquisitions.

 

I believe it’s time to non-tender Bradley (unless a trade can be worked out prior). I think it might actually be necessary to trade Betts, but that depends on a lot of financial stuff of which I have only cursory knowledge.

 

I also expect neither of those things to happen.

 

I’m not expecting change in 2020. Not in players. Not in staff. And not in the standings...

 

I don't expect a whole lot of change to players or staff. I bet Dombrowski makes some bullpen acquisitions. LOL I just hope he doesn't overreact to this year and make a mistake with a large contract.

 

I have never felt like we should offer Betts a humongous contract, but I wouldn't trade him before the deadline, and only then if we have no shot.

[Kimmi]

I agree. Sale, Price, and Porcello all had bad years, but there is still plenty left in their tanks. They will probably all have bounceback years. All of them were well off their career norms in ERA: Sale: 4.68/3.04; Price: 3.86/3.28; Porcello: 5.74/4.35. While I do not expect all of them to reach their career norms I think they will do better than this year. Add to that a hopefully healthy Eovaldi and the ERod of 2019 and I think we can reasonably expect a much better year from our starters in 2020. The offense isn't going to be a problem. I can see DD constructing a bullpen that is much better by possibly trading away some of the offensive pieces we have. We probably have one more year before a rebuild is necessary. As for the GM and Cora: I give them one more year. If the Sox fail to make the playoffs in 2020 I would fire both of them.

 

I more or less agree with everything here. Porcello likely won't be back, but I do expect our starting staff to do a much better job than what they've done so far this year.

[moonslav59]

I more or less agree with everything here. Porcello likely won't be back, but I do expect our starting staff to do a much better job than what they've done so far this year.

 

They cannot do much worse.

 

I'm not sure we can expect Price to be the same or better. He's already been babied to the extreme.

 

Sale is a huge wild card. He could be a Cy Young winner next year or more of the 2019 Sale.

 

ERod has been very steady for 2 years, now. He's in his prime, so I think we can expect the same from him.

 

Eovaldi may be a bigger wild card than Sale. I think he'll be in the rotation, but I would count on 24 starts, let alone 32.

 

Who is the 5th starter? I doubt we spend large on one. My guess is we give DHern, Johnson & Velazquez the job.

 

I'm not all that optimistic about our 2020 rotation, and I'm still thinking the Sale signing was a good one.

 

IMO, we should keep our core talent that is under team control through 2021 or 2022 and sell off the rest this winter or next deadline.

[dgalehouse]

I more or less agree with everything here. Porcello likely won't be back, but I do expect our starting staff to do a much better job than what they've done so far this year.

 

There is nothing that they have shown this year that makes me feel that they will be better next year . Maybe a year older and wiser . But hope springs eternal .

[moonslav59]

There is nothing that they have shown this year that makes me feel that they will be better next year . Maybe a year older and wiser . But hope springs eternal .

 

I don't see one starter that I expect will be better.

[notin]

I don't see one starter that I expect will be better.

 

Eovaldi?

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi?

 

I'm hopeful Sale and Eovaldi will improve- possibly by a great amount, but I do not "expect" it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale needs to embrace Father Time to be good. Yes, he can K a bunch of people, but his inconsistent velocity means far more balls hit into the seats. It took CC 3 years to eventually embrace it and become a "crafty lefty".

[moonslav59]

Sale needs to embrace Father Time to be good. Yes, he can K a bunch of people, but his inconsistent velocity means far more balls hit into the seats. It took CC 3 years to eventually embrace it and become a "crafty lefty".

 

He seems to have the "fire & desire" to continue being highly competitive. He's shown hints of being a great pitcher a few times this year, including an 11 game stretch of 2.24 ERA. In those 11 games (72.1 IP) he K'd 116 batters and walked just 16. Opps had just a .540 OPS against. That's like 9 Sandy Leons!

 

I'm hopeful it won't take years for him to get back to greatness. I have no idea how long it will take.

[jacksonianmarch]

He seems to have the "fire & desire" to continue being highly competitive. He's shown hints of being a great pitcher a few times this year, including an 11 game stretch of 2.24 ERA. In those 11 games (72.1 IP) he K'd 116 batters and walked just 16. Opps had just a .540 OPS against. That's like 9 Sandy Leons!

 

I'm hopeful it won't take years for him to get back to greatness. I have no idea how long it will take.

 

It will take him mastering his command of his fastball and adding a cutter/2 seamer. A guy like CC was a 95mph fastball, 85mph slider, 85 mph change guy. When the FB dropped to 90, the secondary pitches didn't lose their velocity and the difference wasn't there. So he slowed down the breaking ball and the change. He added a cutter and a 2 seamer. He varied the break on the slider to create a curve and slider with the same release point. He went from a 3 pitch pitcher to a 6 pitch pitcher. He went from being hammered to giving up the lowest exit velo in the game for a season. He also learned to throw all of his pitches to all 4 corners of the zone. He learned how to take hitters out of the zone with finesse and not power. It took years. Sale has to make that transition and refine his command

[moonslav59]

It will take him mastering his command of his fastball and adding a cutter/2 seamer. A guy like CC was a 95mph fastball, 85mph slider, 85 mph change guy. When the FB dropped to 90, the secondary pitches didn't lose their velocity and the difference wasn't there. So he slowed down the breaking ball and the change. He added a cutter and a 2 seamer. He varied the break on the slider to create a curve and slider with the same release point. He went from a 3 pitch pitcher to a 6 pitch pitcher. He went from being hammered to giving up the lowest exit velo in the game for a season. He also learned to throw all of his pitches to all 4 corners of the zone. He learned how to take hitters out of the zone with finesse and not power. It took years. Sale has to make that transition and refine his command

 

Do you discount his 11 game stretch this year as luck or what?

[jacksonianmarch]

Do you discount his 11 game stretch this year as luck or what?

 

No, transitioning pitchers are going to have stretches where they are great, but then they'll have stretches where they're terrible

[moonslav59]

No, transitioning pitchers are going to have stretches where they are great, but then they'll have stretches where they're terrible

 

I looked at each of CC's 3 transitioning seasons, and the best 11 game sample sizes I found were:

 

2013: 3.48 (game 2-12)

 

2014: 5.28 (only started 8 games)

 

2015: 3.84 (game 19-29)

 

It looks like Sale's transition year 1 is already ahead of any of CC's 3 years.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I looked at each of CC's 3 transitioning seasons, and the best 11 game sample sizes I found were:

 

2013: 3.48 (game 2-12)

 

2014: 5.28 (only started 8 games)

 

2015: 3.84 (game 19-29)

 

It looks like Sale's transition year 1 is already ahead of any of CC's 3 years.

 

 

Sale still has the heat sometimes.

[moonslav59]

Sale still has the heat sometimes.

 

Yes. I don't think the make-over has to be as extreme as others.

 

A while back, I posted a list of the top SP'ers by WAR since 2003. Almost every pitcher had a down year or two, most around 30-32, but all except Felix bounced back pretty quickly to have a few good seasons afterwards. The 3 years it took CC was an exception to the trend.

 

I think Sale may be back to a high level by next year, but I realize that may be wishful thinking.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes. I don't think the make-over has to be as extreme as others.

 

A while back, I posted a list of the top SP'ers by WAR since 2003. Almost every pitcher had a down year or two, most around 30-32, but all except Felix bounced back pretty quickly to have a few good seasons afterwards. The 3 years it took CC was an exception to the trend.

 

I think Sale may be back to a high level by next year, but I realize that may be wishful thinking.

 

His OPSa when he's throwing 95+ is under .600. His OPSa when throwing under 95 is over 1.000. It's pretty apparent it's a velocity issue

[moonslav59]

His OPSa when he's throwing 95+ is under .600. His OPSa when throwing under 95 is over 1.000. It's pretty apparent it's a velocity issue

 

We're not sure he's done throwing 95-96.

 

Good point, though.