The GM thread

[Carpin]

So, there goes the "he never got a real chance" argument.

 

He got his fair chance, the only knock on his development was that he was rushed to the ML, we'll never know if this affected in the long term

[harmony]

He got his fair chance, the only knock on his development was that he was rushed to the ML, we'll never know if this affected in the long term

Blake Swihart, who made his MLB debut in 2015 at age 23 years and 29 days, faced stiff competition in Arizona from catcher Carson Kelly, who made his MLB debut in 2016 at age 22 years and 53 days.

 

Kelly received more seasoning in the minors with 622 games to the 439 minor league games Swihart has played.

[moonslav59]

He got his fair chance, the only knock on his development was that he was rushed to the ML, we'll never know if this affected in the long term

 

Maybe your only knock, but several others knocked and knocked about him not getting an extended chance or two or three after the call up.

 

We shouldn't forget that he did go back to the minors after being rushed to the majors quickly, and never proved himself worthy there either.

 

2016:

122 PAs at AAA .655 OPS

2017:

38 PAs Gulf RK league .575

212 PAs at AAA .539 OPS

 

Overall, he was .639 in 543 PAs at AAA, and hitting was his "strength."

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Swihart is the cautionary tale of rushing a player and also selling high. Look at Swihart's career in the minors. Yes, hitting was supposed to be his strength. But when was his bat a strength? In 2013, he slashed .298/.366/.428. That's good. In 2014, he played 92 games in AA and slashed .300/.353/.487. That's pretty good too. He was awful in his AAA cameo that year at 22 yrs old. Starts 2015 with a strange .311/.363/.351 line with a startling .383 BABIP. The guy all of a sudden lost all his power and is now hitting an unsustainable .311 by a long shot. Het gets pushed to the bigs as the catchers died on the active roster and held his own, but again showed a startling loss of power slashing .274/.319/.392. He is showing an alarming loss of patience with a skyrocketing K rate with a ridiculous .359BABIP. Instead of determining he belonged in the minors, the organization anointed him as the second coming of Varitek and forced him into the bigs in 2016. His receiving skills forced a push out of position and his move to LF was met with disastrous consequences due to an injury that effectively halted his progression and left him a "what if" around these parts. The warning signs were there. Why did he lose his power? Is it mechanical? Is there an injury? Is it mental? Then, to compensate for the lost power, he is now chasing more and his walk rates fall and his K rates rise. It's standard for a rookie to doubt himself. Instead of sending him down and allowing for the player to declare when he was ready, the sox tried to fit a round peg in a square hole in the majors and irreparably harmed his progression. He needs another 2 years in the minors. Being brought up prematurely screwed that up as it added him to the 40 man and started his control clock. Forcing him to the OF ruined him for good as it halted his progression

[jacksonianmarch]

There is one Betts trade (I am sure more than 1) that might benefit both teams and potentially help the sox jumpstart their pitching. The Mets have an enigmatic starter on their roster in Steven Matz. He is under control for two more seasons and has been injury prone and in the dog house in NY. The Mets also have Brandon Nimmo who has been injured but useful when healthy. He is under control for three more years. I wonder if it behooves the sox to deal for Nimmo and Matz if they try to win next year. I think the sox could target Nimmo in a Betts trade regardless. Maybe the sox ask for their #1 pitching prospect instead of Matz

[moonslav59]

Swihart is the cautionary tale of rushing a player and also selling high. Look at Swihart's career in the minors. Yes, hitting was supposed to be his strength. But when was his bat a strength? In 2013, he slashed .298/.366/.428. That's good. In 2014, he played 92 games in AA and slashed .300/.353/.487. That's pretty good too. He was awful in his AAA cameo that year at 22 yrs old. Starts 2015 with a strange .311/.363/.351 line with a startling .383 BABIP. The guy all of a sudden lost all his power and is now hitting an unsustainable .311 by a long shot. Het gets pushed to the bigs as the catchers died on the active roster and held his own, but again showed a startling loss of power slashing .274/.319/.392. He is showing an alarming loss of patience with a skyrocketing K rate with a ridiculous .359BABIP. Instead of determining he belonged in the minors, the organization anointed him as the second coming of Varitek and forced him into the bigs in 2016. His receiving skills forced a push out of position and his move to LF was met with disastrous consequences due to an injury that effectively halted his progression and left him a "what if" around these parts. The warning signs were there. Why did he lose his power? Is it mechanical? Is there an injury? Is it mental? Then, to compensate for the lost power, he is now chasing more and his walk rates fall and his K rates rise. It's standard for a rookie to doubt himself. Instead of sending him down and allowing for the player to declare when he was ready, the sox tried to fit a round peg in a square hole in the majors and irreparably harmed his progression. He needs another 2 years in the minors. Being brought up prematurely screwed that up as it added him to the 40 man and started his control clock. Forcing him to the OF ruined him for good as it halted his progression

 

I disagree with a lot of this.

 

He was not anointed the next VTek. Vaz was recovering from an injury the following year and took the job from Swihart very early that year.

 

"Forcing" him to the OF did not ruin him. He should have been DFA'd back then. Giving him a chance as an OF'er was an extra chance.

 

Nobody thwarted Swihart's growth but himself. He got way more chances than he deserved not less.

 

[moonslav59]

There is one Betts trade (I am sure more than 1) that might benefit both teams and potentially help the sox jumpstart their pitching. The Mets have an enigmatic starter on their roster in Steven Matz. He is under control for two more seasons and has been injury prone and in the dog house in NY. The Mets also have Brandon Nimmo who has been injured but useful when healthy. He is under control for three more years. I wonder if it behooves the sox to deal for Nimmo and Matz if they try to win next year. I think the sox could target Nimmo in a Betts trade regardless. Maybe the sox ask for their #1 pitching prospect instead of Matz

 

You said we should trade ERod, because he has only 2 years of control.

 

Now, you want to trade our only big chip for an injury riddled pitcher with 2 years of team control. Nimmo does not make up the difference.

 

We can get better from somebody.

[jacksonianmarch]

You said we should trade ERod, because he has only 2 years of control.

 

Now, you want to trade our only big chip for an injury riddled pitcher with 2 years of team control. Nimmo does not make up the difference.

 

We can get better from somebody.

 

I am more talking about a deal that gets you big leaguers, ie one that allows you to try and compete for next year. I do think the Mets are going to be in on Betts, and pretty strongly. Their GM is running a fantasy team and Betts would fit, team building be damned! Also, if the sox' best deal is to gain years of control of another major leaguer, they can always flip that big leaguer for a prospect if they wish to deepen the farm.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you really wanted to install a replacement for Betts and deepen the farm, you could ask for Matt Allan and Nimmo. Nimmo gives you a RFer for the next 3 years and one who was very good last year and you get a top 15 draft prospect from the 2019 draft

[moonslav59]

I am more talking about a deal that gets you big leaguers, ie one that allows you to try and compete for next year. I do think the Mets are going to be in on Betts, and pretty strongly. Their GM is running a fantasy team and Betts would fit, team building be damned! Also, if the sox' best deal is to gain years of control of another major leaguer, they can always flip that big leaguer for a prospect if they wish to deepen the farm.

 

So, if we made this trade, we shouldn't trade ERod?

 

The rebuild is complete in one deal, and we're competitive again?

[jacksonianmarch]

So, if we made this trade, we shouldn't trade ERod?

 

The rebuild is complete in one deal, and we're competitive again?

 

No, I am sorry, maybe I am not representing myself correctly.

 

If DD stays on and decided to give it another run, but deems the Betts situation futile, a deal for Matz and Nimmo could help the club in 2020. If he decides to deal Betts, get 3 years of control of a good OF in Nimmo and a pitcher with promise in Matz. That would be with the intent to compete in 2020.

 

If DD decides to get a reasonable replacement for Betts but also needs to fatten his farm, getting Allan instead of Matz is probably the better call. Nimmo gives you a few years of a big league OFer. Maybe he only keeps Nimmo enough to prove he is healthy and deals him at the deadline in 2020.

 

Obviously, if DD is gone and the sox go into full rebuild, a deal for Nimmo makes less sense. But dealing 1 yr of a superstar for 3 yrs of an all star caliber OFer plus some much needed prospects for the farm isn't the worst thing for a team looking to the future

[moonslav59]

If you really wanted to install a replacement for Betts and deepen the farm, you could ask for Matt Allan and Nimmo. Nimmo gives you a RFer for the next 3 years and one who was very good last year and you get a top 15 draft prospect from the 2019 draft

 

I still think we can do better.

 

Matz is a no brainer no.

 

Nimmo does not do much for me.

 

I might listen, if they offer 2 yrs of Conforto and 3 yrs of Seth Lugo for Betts, Barnes and Johnson.

 

[moonslav59]

No, I am sorry, maybe I am not representing myself correctly.

 

If DD stays on and decided to give it another run, but deems the Betts situation futile, a deal for Matz and Nimmo could help the club in 2020. If he decides to deal Betts, get 3 years of control of a good OF in Nimmo and a pitcher with promise in Matz. That would be with the intent to compete in 2020.

 

If DD decides to get a reasonable replacement for Betts but also needs to fatten his farm, getting Allan instead of Matz is probably the better call. Nimmo gives you a few years of a big league OFer. Maybe he only keeps Nimmo enough to prove he is healthy and deals him at the deadline in 2020.

 

Obviously, if DD is gone and the sox go into full rebuild, a deal for Nimmo makes less sense. But dealing 1 yr of a superstar for 3 yrs of an all star caliber OFer plus some much needed prospects for the farm isn't the worst thing for a team looking to the future

 

That is much clearer.

 

Thanks.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still think we can do better.

 

Matz is a no brainer no.

 

Nimmo does not do much for me.

 

I might listen, if they offer 2 yrs of Conforto and 3 yrs of Seth Lugo for Betts, Barnes and Johnson.

 

 

Nimmo had a higher WAR last year than Conforto has ever had in his career. Conforto is an abysmal OFer.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, if I am dealing a superstar, I would demand to get top end minor league talent, like multiple top 100 to top 50 prospects. Most teams hold onto those guys because their value is immense if they hit. You can have better luck prying good to all star level big league talents from teams with less than the standard 6+ years of control a prospect would have. That is why I am focusing on Nimmo. He is coming off an injury plagued season and has only 3 years of control left. But he's proven to be a near 5 WAR player when healthy and if you can get him plus good prospects, you can achieve production today plus depth for tomorrow. If intent on a complete teardown, Nimmo can be dealt if he returns to his 2018 level of play

[MADSTORK]

Call Billy

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Dealing Betts for Matz and Nimmo. LOL. There are just no words for such nonsense. . . .

 

If the Red Sox are prepared to make that deal, they might as well give up and rebuild, and trade Betts to a team that can sign him long term and get some prospects for him. The Mets are not signing Betts long term and so they are not a realistic trade partner. The White Sox, for example, have that Machado money available and could be a fit. There are only a few teams in MLB that would make Betts a long term offer.

 

But the Red Sox aren't trading Betts unless they are overwhelmed with an offer, which is unlikely. They have the resources and willingness to sign him long term. The Red Sox aren't a schizophrenic organization--they didn't sign Sale, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi so that they could tear it down several months later. Based on what they have done in the recent past, I would expect Henry to continue spending big money on this team. The Red Sox only need to stay below the 237 m mark and they can do that even after signing a free agent like Wheeler OR W.Smith. I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry goes over the 237 m mark sometime over the few seasons, but probably not next year.

Edited August 13, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

We could trade Betts this winter, sign a few 1 year deals to keep us respectable and still reset the tax, then go all out in 2021, which may include signing Betts.

 

If we trade him after game 1, there's no QO to worry about.

[Bellhorn04]

Dealing Betts for Matz and Nimmo. LOL. There are just no words for such nonsense. . . .

 

If the Red Sox are prepared to make that deal, they might as well give up and rebuild, and trade Betts to a team that can sign him long term and get some prospects for him.

 

The problem is, Betts may not be interested in signing an extension no matter who they trade him to.

[oldtimer]

Dealing Betts for Matz and Nimmo. LOL. There are just no words for such nonsense. . . .

 

If the Red Sox are prepared to make that deal, they might as well give up and rebuild, and trade Betts to a team that can sign him long term and get some prospects for him. The Mets are not signing Betts long term and so they are not a realistic trade partner. The White Sox, for example, have that Machado money available and could be a fit. There are only a few teams in MLB that would make Betts a long term offer.

 

But the Red Sox aren't trading Betts unless they are overwhelmed with an offer, which is unlikely. They have the resources and willingness to sign him long term. The Red Sox aren't a schizophrenic organization--they didn't sign Sale, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi so that they could tear it down a year later. Based on what they have done in the recent past, I would expect Henry to continue spending big money on this team. The Red Sox only need to stay below the 237 m and they can do that even after signing a free agent like Wheeler OR W.Smith. I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry doesn't go over the 237 m mark sometime over the few seasons, but probably not next year.

 

I would be surprised if DD isn't gone for next season and we don't do a full reset. The question about Betts is probably in his corner. The Sox are probably agreeable to a fair value contract. If they sense Betts will only go to the highest bidder, I think he will be gone and we will shoot to get the best value in any trade. There is still a question about JDM who without a whole lot of fanfare is having a good season. If he opts out of essentially $24 Mil for 2 years, then good luck as that pay is on the high side for a DH. I would trade Barnes and save on his contract also.

[OH FOY]

We could trade Betts this winter, sign a few 1 year deals to keep us respectable and still reset the tax, then go all out in 2021, which may include signing Betts.

 

If we trade him after game 1, there's no QO to worry about.

 

Going all out for 2021, you must be talking about Pitching right? 2 years older of Sale and Price and a barren Farm in Pitching, as far as Game changers. You want to do it all over again? Pay big bucks for Pitchers.

Edited August 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Slasher9]

The problem is, Betts may not be interested in signing an extension no matter who they trade him to.

 

which is exactly what i am counting on. trade him for prospects now. sign him back after 1 season. he is 100% going to FA.

[Carpin]

which is exactly what i am counting on. trade him for prospects now. sign him back after 1 season. he is 100% going to FA.

 

This would be the best route for you guys, but his price tag will limit the number of teams who can afford him, unless the Sox include some serious money on the deal, they won't get a big haul for him

[Bellhorn04]

This would be the best route for you guys, but his price tag will limit the number of teams who can afford him, unless the Sox include some serious money on the deal, they won't get a big haul for him

 

I'm really not sure if we get more for Mookie trading him now or at the deadline.

 

Birds ended up trading Machado at the deadline.

[OH FOY]

The best asset have this Off-Season is Christian Vazquez. Cheap had a good year, important position, everything that gets value back. You have to give up something to get something back.

[notin]

The best asset have this Off-Season is Christian Vazquez. Cheap had a good year, important position, everything that gets value back. You have to give up something to get something back.

 

Also he’s also the only thing keeping Sandy Leon and Juan Centeno from splitting starting catching duties...

[jacksonianmarch]

Dealing Betts for Matz and Nimmo. LOL. There are just no words for such nonsense. . . .

 

If the Red Sox are prepared to make that deal, they might as well give up and rebuild, and trade Betts to a team that can sign him long term and get some prospects for him. The Mets are not signing Betts long term and so they are not a realistic trade partner. The White Sox, for example, have that Machado money available and could be a fit. There are only a few teams in MLB that would make Betts a long term offer.

 

But the Red Sox aren't trading Betts unless they are overwhelmed with an offer, which is unlikely. They have the resources and willingness to sign him long term. The Red Sox aren't a schizophrenic organization--they didn't sign Sale, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi so that they could tear it down several months later. Based on what they have done in the recent past, I would expect Henry to continue spending big money on this team. The Red Sox only need to stay below the 237 m mark and they can do that even after signing a free agent like Wheeler OR W.Smith. I also wouldn't be shocked if Henry goes over the 237 m mark sometime over the few seasons, but probably not next year.

 

A couple things. The sox were able to reset in 2017. They have been over the mark in 18 and 19. Going over in 2020 means a 50% surcharge on overages. I understand the logic to reset. I also understand the logic to avoid the top spot. But if the sox are $39.5 mil over the cap and don't have the draft pick penalty, they will still have to pay $19.75 mil on the 50% plus the overages for the second tax line. That's crazy

 

Henry is not going to pump money into a dead team. The sox aren't on the cusp of making the playoffs. They're 9 games out in the L column of a playoff spot and 18 back of the Yankees for the division on August 13! Add in the perceived need to pare payroll and I doubt the sox are staring at a return to glory any time soon. I may be wrong, but Henry does have his limits

 

Also, a Nimmo and Matz deal isn't that crazy when you consider Betts is only going for one season. Add in the fact that he is enamored with the open market and the idea he is signed before hitting FA is fallacy. Nobody is trading for Betts out of a thought they are going to get him for more than one year. They aren't getting a discount. They aren't beating teams to the punch. The only saving grace is a comp pick, but if they are over the threshold in 2020, their comp pick will be a 4th rounder and hardly worthy of anything.

Edited August 13, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[notin]

The best asset have this Off-Season is Christian Vazquez. Cheap had a good year, important position, everything that gets value back. You have to give up something to get something back.

 

If I want a catcher this offseason, I’m calling the Dodgers, who defensive whiz Austin Barnes, rookie Will Smith, and MLB-ready stud prospect Keibert Ruiz. And only one home plate to defend...

[jacksonianmarch]

The best asset have this Off-Season is Christian Vazquez. Cheap had a good year, important position, everything that gets value back. You have to give up something to get something back.

 

I said this in my earlier post and got flayed! It is true. Vazquez has never proven to hit like this. Is this a career year or what to expect? If I am the sox, I deal him. 3 years of control of a good defensive and a blossoming offensive producer could be worth a gold mine

[Carpin]

If I want a catcher this offseason, I’m calling the Dodgers, who defensive whiz Austin Barnes, rookie Will Smith, and MLB-ready stud prospect Keibert Ruiz. And only one home plate to defend...

 

The Dodgers are not a good match for Vazquez or Betts; in the OF they have Bellinger, Pollock & Taylor, with Pederson and Verdugo as backups, unless you get Pollock back, there's no deal there. In the catcher position it's even worse, they have right now Barnes & Martin, for next year either Smith (promoted last month) and Ruiz, who are top 100 prospects, will be ready to step up, my guess is they let go one of the veterans and insert one of them and the 2nd stays in the minors just in case.