The GM thread

[moonslav59]

Yeah I don’t think they can go buy another starter. I do agree they non-tender Bradley and let everyone who’s a free agent walk without a QO. (Except maybe Brock Holt.)

 

I don’t think they sign any free agent except possibly someone on a bounce back deal. Candidates include Hector Rondon,Scooter Gennett, Jedd Gyorko, Juan Lagares, Homer Bailey...

 

You don't think we could arb JBJ and trade him without paying any salary?

[moonslav59]

No, it doesn't. The math works out.

 

What do people think of a platoon of Ockimey/Travis for 1b next year, with Ockimey facing righties (2019 AAA numbers against righties: 233 AB, 18 HR, .249 AVG, .390 OBP, .935 OPS); Travis facing lefties?

 

EDIT: just checked again, I'm at around 200 million with P.Wheeler signed. Maybe 210 is more like it, but that gives the Red Sox a lot of room to add a reliever, a really good reliever. The Red Sox just need to avoid the 237 million mark.

 

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players) + $33M for Betts extension= $167M

 

Arbs: (est)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $33M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $11M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $211M +$15M player benefits= $226M ($216M without JBJ)

 

How much are you paying Wheeler?

What about the pen?

How much do we pay for a CF'er?

 

As for a Ockimey-Travis platoon, why not Dalbec?

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Are you forgetting the $15+M player benefit payment?

 

I'm not sure what this is.

 

I overlooked Pedroia's contract. Can the Red Sox get out of that contract, like have Pedroia retire and then the Red Sox hire him to a front office position, paying him big bucks but it won't count toward the luxury tax?

 

Wheeler: I'm estimating between 15-20 million per year. According to your numbers, it sounds like they could sign Wheeler but then the Red Sox would have absolutely no money for the bullpen.

 

Like 1b, I'm going with a minimum salary in CF, perhaps Duran if he continues to produce throughout the month of August.

 

There has to be a way to sign an SP like Wheeler and shave off a little money somewhere to bring in a bullpen arm.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

As for a Ockimey-Travis platoon, why not Dalbec?

 

His value is tied to his defense. Since the Red Sox don't need a 3b, Dalbec will have more value for another team that has an opening at 3b. I see Dalbec as a trade chip for a cost-controlled player--maybe a 1b, maybe a CF or LF, maybe a relief pitcher.

[notin]

You don't think we could arb JBJ and trade him without paying any salary?

 

No. His $10mill plus salary and one year of control combined with a sub-.700 OPS and 0.3fWAR is a pretty untradable combination.

 

Not to mention, the Sox will have a need in CF and might want to re-sign Bradley. Trading him does kill that option leaving CF for who? Rusney Castillo? Jarren Duran?

[notin]

 

What do people think of a platoon of Ockimey/Travis for 1b next year, with Ockimey facing righties (2019 AAA numbers against righties: 233 AB, 18 HR, .249 AVG, .390 OBP, .935 OPS); Travis facing lefties.

 

 

Least productive platoon ever?

[S5Dewey]

I don't suppose anyone heard O'B, Eck and Remy talking about JBJ during the game last night. They seem to think that WAR is overrated when it pertains to JBJ due to some significant flaws in the calculation. O'B mentioned that in consecutive years Ellsbury went from the CF with one of the worst WAR's in baseball to being at the top of the list the next year and that in itself should bring the calculation into question.

 

But.. what do these guys know? All they've done is have baseball be their lives forever. That can't possibly compare with a person who's studied numbers for all of their adult life... can it?

[jacksonianmarch]

FsB, you’re not getting out of Pedroia’s contract. Not gonna happen. The player benefit for every team is around $15 mil and is counted into the lux tax calculation

[notin]

I overlooked Pedroia's contract. Can the Red Sox get out of that contract, like have Pedroia retire and then the Red Sox hire him to a front office position, paying him big bucks but it won't count toward the luxury tax?

 

Wheeler: I'm estimating between 15-20 million per year. According to your numbers, it sounds like they could sign Wheeler but then the Red Sox would have absolutely no money for the bullpen.

 

Like 1b, I'm going with a minimum salary in CF, perhaps Duran if he continues to produce throughout the month of August.

 

There has to be a way to sign an SP like Wheeler and shave off a little money somewhere to bring in a bullpen arm.

 

For the 10,000th time - no the Sox cannot get out of Pedroia’s contract. The CBA specifically prohibits moves designed to deliberately evade the luxury tax calculation. The Sox are just going to have to learn to find 40 baseball players whose combined salary is a mere $215million. Such the handicap...

[jacksonianmarch]

Not 40. They're gonna need to find 16 players who can combine for less than $40 mil if they jettison Bradley, Betts and JDM while letting all other FAs walk if you're thinking a reset

[moonslav59]

His value is tied to his defense. Since the Red Sox don't need a 3b, Dalbec will have more value for another team that has an opening at 3b. I see Dalbec as a trade chip for a cost-controlled player--maybe a 1b, maybe a CF or LF, maybe a relief pitcher.

 

Dalbec is better, offensively, than Ockimey.

 

His defense could transfer to 1B, too.

 

We need low cost players who can play 1B. I'd rather go into ST'ing with 3 choices not 2.

[moonslav59]

Not 40. They're gonna need to find 16 players who can combine for less than $40 mil if they jettison Bradley, Betts and JDM while letting all other FAs walk if you're thinking a reset

 

The budget is based on the 40, but 15 will be making minor league contracts.

 

We do not need to shed Betts, JBJ & JD to reset. 1 or 2 would do.

[kenmeister]

Dalbec is better, offensively, than Ockimey.

 

His defense could transfer to 1B, too.

 

We need low cost players who can play 1B. I'd rather go into ST'ing with 3 choices not 2.

 

Isn't Sam Travis being groomed for 1B?

[Slasher9]

I don't suppose anyone heard O'B, Eck and Remy talking about JBJ during the game last night. They seem to think that WAR is overrated when it pertains to JBJ due to some significant flaws in the calculation. O'B mentioned that in consecutive years Ellsbury went from the CF with one of the worst WAR's in baseball to being at the top of the list the next year and that in itself should bring the calculation into question.

 

But.. what do these guys know? All they've done is have baseball be their lives forever. That can't possibly compare with a person who's studied numbers for all of their adult life... can it?

 

what do they know? only 1 of the 3 is an actual HoF player. stat masterson has a Yale degree!!!! certainly he knows more about baseball then an actual Hall of Famer?

[notin]

I don't suppose anyone heard O'B, Eck and Remy talking about JBJ during the game last night. They seem to think that WAR is overrated when it pertains to JBJ due to some significant flaws in the calculation. O'B mentioned that in consecutive years Ellsbury went from the CF with one of the worst WAR's in baseball to being at the top of the list the next year and that in itself should bring the calculation into question.

 

But.. what do these guys know? All they've done is have baseball be their lives forever. That can't possibly compare with a person who's studied numbers for all of their adult life... can it?

 

 

 

Since I’m not going to say something you want to hear, I doubt you’ll listen. But the argument that WAR is flawed because one player went from having a really good score to a really bad score is just flat out stupid. That’s like saying batting average is flawed because a player can have a good BA one year and a bad one the next. I mean, did he suddenly become a worse hitter?

[Slasher9]

Since I’m not going to say something you want to hear, I doubt you’ll listen. But the argument that WAR is flawed because one player went from having a really good score to a really bad score is just flat out stupid. That’s like saying batting average is flawed because a player can have a good BA one year and a bad one the next. I mean, did he suddenly become a worse hitter?

 

so you disagree with a HoF pitcher and a Red Sox HoF 2bman?

then again you also dont believe players "try harder" in big situations like playoffs and such so i would guess you and actual MLB players wouldnt agree on much.

[notin]

so you disagree with a HoF pitcher and a Red Sox HoF 2bman?

then again you also dont believe players "try harder" in big situations like playoffs and such so i would guess you and actual MLB players wouldnt agree on much.

 

I absolutely disagree with that logic for refuting WAR.

 

And I believe they try as hard as they can almost all the time and baseball is their comfort zone. But I’m sure Remy agrees with you that most players dog it during the regular season...

[Kimmi]

Conversely, the Yankees didn't add any starting pitching at the deadline, which everyone was convinced they were going to do, but there were no adverse effects.

 

Hate to say it but the doofus has been having a pretty good year - so far.

 

The Yankees were in a different situation than we were. If the Sox had a 10 game lead on the division, I don't think that not adding anyone at the deadline would seem as disheartening. Again, it might not have anything to do with anything, just throwing it out there.

 

Also, I'm not sure I can give the doofus that much credit. LOL

[Kimmi]

I don't suppose anyone heard O'B, Eck and Remy talking about JBJ during the game last night. They seem to think that WAR is overrated when it pertains to JBJ due to some significant flaws in the calculation. O'B mentioned that in consecutive years Ellsbury went from the CF with one of the worst WAR's in baseball to being at the top of the list the next year and that in itself should bring the calculation into question.

 

But.. what do these guys know? All they've done is have baseball be their lives forever. That can't possibly compare with a person who's studied numbers for all of their adult life... can it?

 

These are the guys who also believes a fast ball rises. Just sayin'.

[Kimmi]

what do they know? only 1 of the 3 is an actual HoF player. stat masterson has a Yale degree!!!! certainly he knows more about baseball then an actual Hall of Famer?

 

You have broken my heart.

[notin]

The Yankees were in a different situation than we were. If the Sox had a 10 game lead on the division, I don't think that not adding anyone at the deadline would seem as disheartening. Again, it might not have anything to do with anything, just throwing it out there.

 

Also, I'm not sure I can give the doofus that much credit. LOL

 

Like it or not, Cashman has been good at finding contributing players other teams didn’t even want, like Hicks, Voit, Urshela, and Maybin.

 

Being 10 games up did give him some leeway for failing to get a SP. Although I think his failure to trade Garcia and Flovial for Stroman will haunt him now and in the future...

[Kimmi]

so you disagree with a HoF pitcher and a Red Sox HoF 2bman?

then again you also dont believe players "try harder" in big situations like playoffs and such so i would guess you and actual MLB players wouldnt agree on much.

 

These guys are also very much old school. They don't like analytics because they go against much of what they believe, which is okay.

 

Change is slow. How long did it take managers to stop sac bunting so often? How long has it taken for managers to get away from the slappy, bat handler low OBP batter in the #2 hole to finally putting one of their best hitters in that spot. Just a few short years ago, a manager would have been crucified for batting Trout in the #2 hole. Today, it's very widely accepted.

[Kimmi]

Like it or not, Cashman has been good at finding contributing players other teams didn’t even want, like Hicks, Voit, Urshela, and Maybin.

 

Being 10 games up did give him some leeway for failing to get a SP. Although I think his failure to trade Garcia and Flovial for Stroman will haunt him now and in the future...

 

I have always thought Cashman is a very good GM. I felt like he was strong armed by father Steinbrenner and Levine into making moves that he wouldn't have made on his own, but now he is finally allowed more power in his decisions.

 

I hate to say it, but I like what Cashman has done with his team recently. Very Theo-esque.

[Slasher9]

These are the guys who also believes a fast ball rises. Just sayin'.

 

i think it does with these new seamless baseballs?

[Slasher9]

You have broken my heart.

 

[Slasher9]

These guys are also very much old school. They don't like analytics because they go against much of what they believe, which is okay.

 

Change is slow. How long did it take managers to stop sac bunting so often? How long has it taken for managers to get away from the slappy, bat handler low OBP batter in the #2 hole to finally putting one of their best hitters in that spot. Just a few short years ago, a manager would have been crucified for batting Trout in the #2 hole. Today, it's very widely accepted.

 

Fair. but i still have a huge issue with dWar.

[OH FOY]

Wait till Play-off on the Yanks, you need Pitching, Houston, and Dodgers have better Pitching. And they can hit with the Yanks.

[notin]

i think it does with these new seamless baseballs?

 

It doesn't. That's not how gravity works. Even bullets drop slightly due to gravity when coming out of a gun.

 

A pitcher might throw the pitch with a slight upper trajectory, but that's not the same thing...

[notin]

Fair. but i still have a huge issue with dWar.

 

dWAR isn't perfect, but because talented players don't score well isn't a flaw.

 

If you look at the base stats for Bradley, he just isn't as involved defensively. He's second in all of MLB in innings in CF, but he's seen fewer plays than several other CFs. And his OOZ plays are middle of the pack. If you don't make as many plays, you don't score as well. Just like if you don't get as many ABs, you don't get as many hits. But that doesn't mean you're a bad hitter...

[Kimmi]

Fair. but i still have a huge issue with dWar.

 

One thing to keep in mind with defensive stats is that it takes a very large sample to somewhat stabilize, like 3 years worth of data.

 

When you look at a player's dWAR for this season, it would be like judging a player based on just one or two months of hitting stats.