The GM thread

[Bellhorn04]

One thing to keep in mind with defensive stats is that it takes a very large sample to somewhat stabilize, like 3 years worth of data.

 

When you look at a player's dWAR for this season, it would be like judging a player based on just one or two months of hitting stats.

 

If the stat folks could produce an event log for the defensive ratings it might resolve a lot of these arguments.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair. but i still have a huge issue with dWar.

 

OTOH those Inside Edge numbers you quoted for Beni were very interesting, weren't they? At first I thought there had to be something wrong but I checked them out and I was a bit shocked.

[Slasher9]

OTOH those Inside Edge numbers you quoted for Beni were very interesting, weren't they? At first I thought there had to be something wrong but I checked them out and I was a bit shocked.

 

Inside Edge > dWar

[notin]

Inside Edge > dWar

 

Certainly a worthwhile discussion.

 

I think both are overall superior to Eye Test...

[Bellhorn04]

Inside Edge shows that JBJ has a vastly reduced number of routine plays this year for whatever reason.

[notin]

Inside Edge shows that JBJ has a vastly reduced number of routine plays this year for whatever reason.

 

As I've been saying for a while now, his lower defensive metrics seem to be more about him not being as involved defensively (i.e. not as many balls hit to CF as other teams). I also think being flanked by Betts is a factor. But I wouldn't say this is a flaw in the metrics. Like all stats, they measure what a player has done, not what he is capable of doing.

 

The argument put forth by the NESN booth ignores this...

[Bellhorn04]

As I've been saying for a while now, his lower defensive metrics seem to be more about him not being as involved defensively (i.e. not as many balls hit to CF as other teams). I also think being flanked by Betts is a factor. But I wouldn't say this is a flaw in the metrics. Like all stats, they measure what a player has done, not what he is capable of doing.

 

The argument put forth by the NESN booth ignores this...

 

I believe you have been spot on correct about this.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The free agent class won't be loaded with relievers. Chapman will be out there (he will opt out), but I would expect the Yankees to resign him.

 

I think the Red Sox should spend big on one free agent--a starting pitcher, and then find relievers through the trade market. Again, Dalbec would be a great piece to bring back a quality reliever. Signing Wheeler would bring the Red Sox close to that 237 mark, but not over

 

Will Smith is a free agent. If the Red Sox sign him, they wouldn't have the money for a starter like Wheeler; the Red Sox would need to shop on the next tier down on the starter free agent market.

 

Let's say Dalbec brings back a quality cost-controlled reliever. The Red Sox would still have Workman. Hernandez could develop into an elite bullpen arm. That's three quality relievers. Maybe Braiser and/or Barnes have better seasons in 2020 (so far so good for Brasier in AAA).

 

Of course, none of this works if C.Sale and Eavoldi don't have better years. But a starting staff of Sale, Eavoldi, Rodriguez, Wheeler, and Price could be very good. And it goes without saying that the Red Sox will have one of the best offenses in baseball next year.

 

Lineup:

Betts RF

Benintendi LF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3b

Martinez DH

Chavis 2b

Vazquez C

Ockimey/Travis 1b

Duran CF

Edited August 9, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think any of us know what approach the Sox are going to take this offseason.

 

Shaughnessy thinks Dombrowski is a goner. If he's right, what does that mean in terms of the next team-building philosophy?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

2020 Tax Salary Budget:

$Millions

31.0 Price

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (assuming option)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedey

4.5 Vaz

Total:$134M (7 players) + $33M for Betts extension= $167M

 

Arbs: (est)

10 JBJ (4 of 4)

9 ERod (3 of 4)

4 Beni (1 of 3)

3 Workman (3 of 3)

3 Barnes (2 of 3)

2 Hembree (2 of 3)

1 Wright (3 of 3)

1 Hernandez (1 of 3)

Total $33M (9 players)

 

Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster)

Total: $11M

 

40 man roster with no FA signings: $211M +$15M player benefits= $226M ($216M without JBJ)

 

How much are you paying Wheeler?

What about the pen?

How much do we pay for a CF'er?

 

As for a Ockimey-Travis platoon, why not Dalbec?

 

 

It is also worth noting that you have 33 m for Betts, but if the Red Sox don't resign him in the offseason, we are looking at paying him maybe 25 m next year? Moreover, the Red Sox could get creative with a Betts extension--that is, they could follow the B.Harper example: make Betts a Red Sox for life, but sign him for about 25 m per year. Harper signed that kind of contract.

 

In any event, the Red Sox don't need to worry about resigning Betts in the offseason--they can just resign him when he reaches free agency. At that point, only a few teams will be bidding on him anyway. The Yankees won't be involved and the Dodgers have been avoiding giving out long term lucrative contracts. Who else will bid on Mookie? The Mets won't. The Phillies won't. The Padres won't. The Rays won't. The Marlins won't. The Angels won't. The Cubs won't. The Royals won't. Sure, a few teams will pop up and make aggressive offers but the Red Sox can deal with that.

Edited August 9, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Inside Edge shows that JBJ has a vastly reduced number of routine plays this year for whatever reason.

 

Sox pitchers have a higher K rate than 2018 (10.0 to 9.6).

 

Their IF fly Balls are up: 9.9% to 11.8%

 

Less hard hit balls: 34.5% to 31.3%

 

Slightly less hit to the center of the field: 34.4%-33.3%

 

On EDGE:

Balls with a 40-90% catch expectancy have dropped to CF: 20 to 7. Granted, the season is not over, but the pace is almost half of 2018- giving JBJ less chances to shine.

[moonslav59]

It is also worth noting that you have 33 m for Betts, but if the Red Sox don't resign him in the offseason, we are looking at paying him maybe 25 m next year? Moreover, the Red Sox could get creative with a Betts extension--that is, they could follow the B.Harper example: make Betts a Red Sox for life, but sign him for about 25 m per year. Harper signed that kind of contract.

 

Okay, but in the plan I responded to, you had us extending Betts. Yes, that can wait until after 2020, but signing Wheeler and some pen pieces would put us over the max line, even if we dumped JBJ. That is my point.

[moonslav59]

In any event, the Red Sox don't need to worry about resigning Betts in the offseason--they can just resign him when he reaches free agency. At that point, only a few teams will be bidding on him anyway. The Yankees won't be involved and the Dodgers have been avoiding giving out long term lucrative contracts. Who else will bid on Mookie? The Mets won't. The Phillies won't. The Padres won't. The Rays won't. The Marlins won't. The Angels won't. The Cubs won't. The Royals won't. Sure, a few teams will pop up and make aggressive offers but the Red Sox can deal with that.

 

If teams paid Harper and Machado mega bucks for many years, someone will pay Betts, despite being a little older.

[notin]

If teams paid Harper and Machado mega bucks for many years, someone will pay Betts, despite being a little older.

 

I would expect Betts’ next contract to be roughly equal to Arenado’s extension..

[jacksonianmarch]

I would expect Betts’ next contract to be roughly equal to Arenado’s extension..

 

I think you are onto something here. 8 yrs $260 mil $32+ mil AAV

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Okay, but in the plan I responded to, you had us extending Betts. Yes, that can wait until after 2020, but signing Wheeler and some pen pieces would put us over the max line, even if we dumped JBJ. That is my point.

 

No it wouldn't. You only lose 10 spots in the draft if you spend over 237 m. The Red Sox could sign Wheeler, pay Betts 25 m next year, and would be about 10 million under 237. Again, they won't have a lot of money left over to sign a relief pitcher but they can address the bullpen through trades. The relief free agent market is kind of weak anyway and I don't want to pay W.Smith over 10 m, which is probably what he will get.

[Slasher9]

if they ax DD and bring in a new GM.....wonder if he/she would have the balls to trade Mookie this offseason? it would be the smartest move if Commander Data is demanding a Tax Reset.

[jacksonianmarch]

if they ax DD and bring in a new GM.....wonder if he/she would have the balls to trade Mookie this offseason? it would be the smartest move if Commander Data is demanding a Tax Reset.

 

That nickname is awesome.

[Kimmi]

If the stat folks could produce an event log for the defensive ratings it might resolve a lot of these arguments.

 

True. That day is likely coming eventually.

[Kimmi]

Inside Edge > dWar

 

So, we are okay with the way the plays are tracked for Inside Edge, but not for UZR or DRS?

[Carpin]

if they ax DD and bring in a new GM.....wonder if he/she would have the balls to trade Mookie this offseason? it would be the smartest move if Commander Data is demanding a Tax Reset.

 

It's already in the rumors, check this out

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2849098-mookie-betts-trade-rumors-execs-believe-red-sox-will-listen-to-offers-in-2020

[Kimmi]

I don't think any of us know what approach the Sox are going to take this offseason.

 

Shaughnessy thinks Dombrowski is a goner. If he's right, what does that mean in terms of the next team-building philosophy?

 

There is speculation that Betts is going to be shopped around in the off season, which many posters now seem to be on board with now. Last year, it was the majority opinion that Betts must be re-signed at any cost.

 

How quickly opinions change. LOL

 

If Dombrowski is a goner, I hope the team brings in a Theo protege.

[Kimmi]

I would expect Betts’ next contract to be roughly equal to Arenado’s extension..

 

I would not do it.

[Bellhorn04]

if they ax DD and bring in a new GM.....wonder if he/she would have the balls to trade Mookie this offseason? it would be the smartest move if Commander Data is demanding a Tax Reset.

 

I don't think Sox fans should expect a big haul of top prospects by trading Mookie this offseason.

 

Because the team that acquires him will also have to pick up a tab of $27 million or so for one season of control.

[MADSTORK]

GM candidate?

There is another Billy in Oakland not named Beane. Henry should start there!

[moonslav59]

I don't think Sox fans should expect a big haul of top prospects by trading Mookie this offseason.

 

Because the team that acquires him will also have to pick up a tab of $27 million or so for one season of control.

 

He's more than worth that, and the one year "risk" might be more appealing to some GM than a longer term deal.

 

Not many teams have to worry about paying a tax on that $27M like we do.

[moonslav59]

There is speculation that Betts is going to be shopped around in the off season, which many posters now seem to be on board with now. Last year, it was the majority opinion that Betts must be re-signed at any cost.

 

How quickly opinions change. LOL

 

If Dombrowski is a goner, I hope the team brings in a Theo protege.

 

I still want Betts extended and would pay top dollar. I'm also okay with the idea that if we do not think we can extend or re-sign him, we should try to trade him.

 

I'm also okay with trading him and then re-signing him.

 

I'm not sure my opinion has changed at all.

 

[moonslav59]

No it wouldn't. You only lose 10 spots in the draft if you spend over 237 m. The Red Sox could sign Wheeler, pay Betts 25 m next year, and would be about 10 million under 237. Again, they won't have a lot of money left over to sign a relief pitcher but they can address the bullpen through trades. The relief free agent market is kind of weak anyway and I don't want to pay W.Smith over 10 m, which is probably what he will get.

 

We have nobody to trade for decent RP'ers, and we probably need better than "decent."

 

We'd have to trade prospects and likely would also draft 10 picks lower.

 

Look, I doubt the Sox go with my suggestion. I doubt they try to reset after this season.

 

I also doubt they go over the max line next year or trade prospects, because they will want to build up the farm and future not make it bleaker.

 

If anything this season has shown me is that we need to recognize the priority should be shifting towards the extended future and away from the win now philosophy. It's very hard to juggle both with the budget and current farm make-up.

[moonslav59]

I would expect Betts’ next contract to be roughly equal to Arenado’s extension..

 

One reason I want to reset after this season is that doing it after 2021 all but assures we say bye-bye to Betts at $32M x 8.

[moonslav59]

More on Betts:

 

Will Red Sox listen to offers for Mookie Betts?

WWW.MLB.COM

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Could 2019 be Mookie Betts' final year in a Red Sox uniform? It's becoming increasingly possible, with multiple rival executives telling MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi that they expect the Red Sox to listen to offers for the '18 American League MVP this offseason. Betts will be one year away from