The GM thread

[moonslav59]

System or not, bottom line is identifying talent...

 

True, but how has Theo done under the same, new system with better draft picks and no budget penalties since joining the Cubs?

[dgalehouse]

True, but how has Theo done under the same, new system with better draft picks and no budget penalties since joining the Cubs?

 

Theo won a championship with the Cubs , ending a 71 year curse . Currently in first place in the N.L. Central .

[moonslav59]

Theo won a championship with the Cubs , ending a 71 year curse . Currently in first place in the N.L. Central .

 

I'm talking about building the farm under the new rules. How is the Cubs farm system? How has Theo drafted with low picks? How has he done on international signings?

 

It's a good comp, because the Cubs have won a lot and spend a lot.

Edited August 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Wouldn't that include the extension for Bogaerts?

 

No. He was not a free agent...

[jad]

I think the point is not to sign the best players demanding six year contracts...

 

Well, that could be an argument I suppose (and it's certainly the policy for some teams with limited payroll). But any plan based on "not signing the best players" (since many of the best players do in fact want those long-term deals) is probably not going to win four championships every 15 years or so.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm talking about building the farm under the new rules. How is the Cubs farm system? How has Theo drafted with low picks? How has he done on international signings?

 

It's a good comp, because the Cubs have won a lot and spend a lot.

 

The Cubs won a lot then traded a lot. You have to remember, this was a 108 year curse that they broke. Breaking that curse was worth the build up. Theo took over a bereft franchise that needed a total house cleaning. He rebuilt them then won a title with them. The two trades that I bet he regrets now but not at the time are the Quintana deal and the Chapman deal. Other than that, he developed well and even drafted well. Nico Hoerner is a top prospect even after being drafted pretty late. But he is gonna run into a similar issue when Bryant comes to pay.

[moonslav59]

The Cubs won a lot then traded a lot. You have to remember, this was a 108 year curse that they broke. Breaking that curse was worth the build up. Theo took over a bereft franchise that needed a total house cleaning. He rebuilt them then won a title with them. The two trades that I bet he regrets now but not at the time are the Quintana deal and the Chapman deal. Other than that, he developed well and even drafted well. Nico Hoerner is a top prospect even after being drafted pretty late. But he is gonna run into a similar issue when Bryant comes to pay.

 

Again, my point was not about Theo doing a bad job with the Cubs.

 

It was about how difficult it is for any GM to build up the farm while winning every year and spending heavily every year.

 

It's not easy for any GM to find multiple top prospects while drafting later than 25 every year and having limited international bonus pools.

 

Do the Cubs have a top 15 farm system?

 

People were praising Theo for building the Sox farm system up while winning, so I pointed out how the system was different then. Theo got a ton of comp picks while with the Sox. He also drafted some good prospects who had signability issues with teams who drafted ahead of him. He had an unlimited international FA budget.

 

Times have changed for Theo, too.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Cubs farm is #29 at midseason. They are a ways ahead of the sox, but they're behind everyone else. They have one great prospect and otherwise lost their depth. My initial comments on the cubs this year were incorrect.

[jung]

The point is Henry will only hire a Pres of Baseball Ops he knows. He might hire from within but it would surprise me if he did.

 

Henry knows Theo. Frankly I don't think it will be Theo because while Henry knows Theo, Theo knows him!

[moonslav59]

Cubs farm is #29 at midseason. They are a ways ahead of the sox, but they're behind everyone else. They have one great prospect and otherwise lost their depth. My initial comments on the cubs this year were incorrect.

 

Thank you for clarifying.

 

The Cubs are an example of how even a GM known for being able to find fine young talent just cannot do it under the current system. At least it is very hard.

 

The winning teams that have a strong farm, either traded some top talent for prospects over recent years or sucked for a while not too long ago.

 

[jung]

I really only have one question relative to the future or current Pres of Baseball Ops. How do they deal with Mookie Betts.

 

Either they are going to hold onto Mookie for his 2020 season and gamble that they can make a 2020 run which seems more difficult to fathom the deeper we get into 2019 thanks to the pitching problems and most specifically the rotation or they trade Mookie before the 2020 season begins. They can make Mookie an offer. Its worth the effort but he won't accept it. They can't possibly be nuts enough to give Mookie the kind of money he is going to be seeking.

 

If its trade him, are the Sox going to let a lame duck Pres of baseball ops handle the Mookie trade? They would have to be out of their minds to do that. Yet, extending DD in order to resolve that problem seems equally absurd.

[moonslav59]

I really only have one question relative to the future or current Pres of Baseball Ops. How do they deal with Mookie Betts.

 

Either they are going to hold onto Mookie for his 2020 season and gamble that they can make a 2020 run which seems more difficult to fathom the deeper we get into 2019 thanks to the pitching problems and most specifically the rotation or they trade Mookie before the 2020 season begins. They can make Mookie an offer. Its worth the effort but he won't accept it. They can't possibly be nuts enough to give Mookie the kind of money he is going to be seeking.

 

If its trade him, are the Sox going to let a lame duck Pres of baseball ops handle the Mookie trade? They would have to be out of their minds to do that. Yet, extending DD in order to resolve that problem seems equally absurd.

 

All we have to do is offer Betts more or the same as the highest bidder. There is no guarantee he "gets what he's asking for." Several big named FAs have not gotten close to what the wanted in recent years. Some didn't even get signed until mid season.

 

Betts will get a big payday. I'm pretty sure we give him a highly competitive offer.

 

I share your concern about not trading him and possibly losing him to free agency with nothing to show for it, but it's not like if we lose out on a $30M per year bid for Betts, we'll walk away from the FA market with nothing.

 

I'm okay with looking to trade him AND then try to re-sign him later, but I'm not sure that is a highly probable event.

[Bellhorn04]

All we have to do is offer Betts more or the same as the highest bidder. There is no guarantee he "gets what he's asking for." Several big named FAs have not gotten close to what the wanted in recent years. Some didn't even get signed until mid season.

 

Based on the Harper and Machado contract overpays, Mookie has little to worry about.

 

Position player, so less risk than a pitcher - check.

Charisma factor - check.

No known injury issues - check.

 

If Mookie gets to free agency I think we're probably out.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thank you for clarifying.

 

The Cubs are an example of how even a GM known for being able to find fine young talent just cannot do it under the current system. At least it is very hard.

 

The winning teams that have a strong farm, either traded some top talent for prospects over recent years or sucked for a while not too long ago.

 

 

The last bastion of team building that is about to be turned into a weird draft is the IFA process. Yes, they limited the money, but a lot of these guys stick with the club that tried to develop them. The Yanks have been heavily involved in the IFA arena for decades and the signings of Sanchez, Severino, and Andujar certainly help develop while we were still picking in the back half of the draft. The IFA process is said to be turned into a draft, but not a 30-1 reverse standings order. The plan would be to pick by division with a reverse order of standings then rotate year for year. So 2020 could go ALE, ALC, ALW, NLE, NLC, NLW and in that model, the Yanks would pick 5th in that draft. Then the following year, the ALE drops to last in that order and the ALC drafts first. Weird

[jung]

Based on the Harper and Machado contract overpays, Mookie has little to worry about.

 

Position player, so less risk than a pitcher - check.

Charisma factor - check.

No known injury issues - check.

 

If Mookie gets to free agency I think we're probably out.

 

Agreed and given his agent and the sort of sentiment around this situation, anything less than what Mookie can get as a free agent is not likely to cut it as an offer from the Sox though I still think the Sox should make the effort. However, I simply do not think an offer they will or even should make will prevent Mookie from going the FA route.

 

There are other MLB teams that will make Mookie not just the center of their marketing effort but the entirety of their marketing effort. The Sox are not going to see that kind of value in Mookie. The Sox have so much marketing bull crap going on all the time that Mookie would only ever be the center of that effort at best and maybe not even that! That alone probably adds anywhere from $3M to $5M per to any offer any other team will make for Mookie over a similar number of contract years.

[Bellhorn04]

What might make the most sense with Mookie is trading him at the July 2020 deadline, unless we're in contention for the division (ha ha).

[moonslav59]

Based on the Harper and Machado contract overpays, Mookie has little to worry about.

 

Position player, so less risk than a pitcher - check.

Charisma factor - check.

No known injury issues - check.

 

If Mookie gets to free agency I think we're probably out.

 

I never said Mookie would not get a big payday- just that he won't get what he's asking for.

 

We should make him a fair offer, and probably trade him, if he says no.

 

Then offer him a similar offer, when he's a FA.

 

[notin]

Based on the Harper and Machado contract overpays, Mookie has little to worry about.

 

Position player, so less risk than a pitcher - check.

Charisma factor - check.

No known injury issues - check.

 

If Mookie gets to free agency I think we're probably out.

 

 

You left out the biggest factor - under 30...

[notin]

What might make the most sense with Mookie is trading him at the July 2020 deadline, unless we're in contention for the division (ha ha).

 

What makes the most sense is dealing him this off-season. Better return and increases likelihood of a reset, which makes bringing Mookie back easier...

[jacksonianmarch]

What makes the most sense is dealing him this off-season. Better return and increases likelihood of a reset, which makes bringing Mookie back easier...

 

If you reset, you're not bringing back Mookie. Why would you allocate $30 mil AAV to a player when you'll be stuck in cap hell with $77 mil AAV attached to 3 underachieving pitchers and a lineup still full of guys making money (or cadaver knee Pedi). It makes no sense for Mookie to join a rebuild either. If the sox reset, then they're going through a rebuild. You don't have the prospects to step in and keep the team afloat should you jettison talent. Let's put it this way. Let's say the sox deal off JDM and Betts while also non-tendering JBJ, Hembree, Leon and Wright. Your 2020 allocations are as follows

 

Sale- $29 mil

Price- $31 mil

Eovaldi- $17 mil

Pedroia- $13 mil

Bogaerts- $20 mil

Vasquez- $4 mil

 

Medicals- $15 mil

 

Arb players

E-Rod- $10 mil

Beni- $5 mil

Workman- $5 mil

Barnes- $3 mil

 

That's 10 players, 9 of which will be on the 25 man roster. Factor in 16 players at $9 mil (league min around $550K) as well and you have a total cost of $161 mil. It gets you under the cap, but that team royally sucks. Toronto would be better. If the sox add no further big league talent, though, 2021 looks worse! The same contracts are in play but ERod going into his final year of arb (ie FA price), Beni goes to his second year of arb (likely 8 figures) and Devers sees his first arb season. If he hits in 2020 like he has this year, he's gonna challenge Mookie's $10 mil first year of arb number. Just on arb contracts alone, you likely see a $20 mil jump. Dealing Betts then re-signing him gives you still a bad team, and one that gets you right up to that first threshold. If the sox rebuild, they rebuild. Betts will be gone. You need to come to grips with that

[Kimmi]

There is nothing that they have shown this year that makes me feel that they will be better next year . Maybe a year older and wiser . But hope springs eternal .

 

I don't see one starter that I expect will be better.

 

Better than they were in their primes? No.

 

But better than this year? Definitely they can be.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi

 

You are taking the optimistic view, but nothing points in the direction of the rotation improving in performance going forward. I hope Sale can at least come part way back to his dominance of the past. I don't see Cashner, Porcello or Price doing the job for us going forwad. Price will be with us in 2020.

 

I am optimistic, but I'm also a stats person. I think peripheral stats give a better picture of the true performance level of a pitcher over stats like ERA. They are also better indicators of future performance than ERA is.

 

Sale, Price, and even Porcello to a lesser degree, are due for some positive regression. So yes, I am optimistic about their future performance.

 

As far as Cashner goes, I posted when he was first signed that he was outperforming his peripherals and that we should not be surprised to see him return to his norms.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, the team played a nasty little joke on the front office.

 

And then the FO did not add any players before the deadline. They didn't sell, but they also didn't buy, even for a bit player.

 

I do have to wonder what kind of impact this had on the players.

[Bellhorn04]

And then the FO did not add any players before the deadline. They didn't sell, but they also didn't buy, even for a bit player.

 

I do have to wonder what kind of impact this had on the players.

 

They did add Cashner.

[Nick]

If you reset, you're not bringing back Mookie. Why would you allocate $30 mil AAV to a player when you'll be stuck in cap hell with $77 mil AAV attached to 3 underachieving pitchers and a lineup still full of guys making money (or cadaver knee Pedi). It makes no sense for Mookie to join a rebuild either. If the sox reset, then they're going through a rebuild. You don't have the prospects to step in and keep the team afloat should you jettison talent. Let's put it this way. Let's say the sox deal off JDM and Betts while also non-tendering JBJ, Hembree, Leon and Wright. Your 2020 allocations are as follows

 

Sale- $29 mil

Price- $31 mil

Eovaldi- $17 mil

Pedroia- $13 mil

Bogaerts- $20 mil

Vasquez- $4 mil

 

Medicals- $15 mil

 

Arb players

E-Rod- $10 mil

Beni- $5 mil

Workman- $5 mil

Barnes- $3 mil

 

That's 10 players, 9 of which will be on the 25 man roster. Factor in 16 players at $9 mil (league min around $550K) as well and you have a total cost of $161 mil. It gets you under the cap, but that team royally sucks. Toronto would be better. If the sox add no further big league talent, though, 2021 looks worse! The same contracts are in play but ERod going into his final year of arb (ie FA price), Beni goes to his second year of arb (likely 8 figures) and Devers sees his first arb season. If he hits in 2020 like he has this year, he's gonna challenge Mookie's $10 mil first year of arb number. Just on arb contracts alone, you likely see a $20 mil jump. Dealing Betts then re-signing him gives you still a bad team, and one that gets you right up to that first threshold. If the sox rebuild, they rebuild. Betts will be gone. You need to come to grips with that

 

So Red Sox will be no good forever?

[Kimmi]

They did add Cashner.

 

Yes, I know. I am talking about adding a reliever (or two) in the last few days before the deadline. I think that virtually everyone was expecting that Dombrowski would add some bullpen depth. Cora even stated that he would be very surprised if they did not.

 

Typically, when a GM makes a deadline move, the consensus is that the FO is sending the message to the players that they believe in the team.

 

Does not adding anybody send the opposite message? I don't know. I'm not saying that this is the reason the team lost 8 in a row and 9 out of 10, just speculating.

 

Everything went so well for them last year. This team has not responded well to adversity at all.

[Kimmi]

So Red Sox will be no good forever?

 

Just Jacko being Jacko.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I know. I am talking about adding a reliever (or two) in the last few days before the deadline. I think that virtually everyone was expecting that Dombrowski would add some bullpen depth. Cora even stated that he would be very surprised if they did not.

 

Typically, when a GM makes a deadline move, the consensus is that the FO is sending the message to the players that they believe in the team.

 

Does not adding anybody send the opposite message? I don't know. I'm not saying that this is the reason the team lost 8 in a row and 9 out of 10, just speculating.

 

Everything went so well for them last year. This team has not responded well to adversity at all.

 

Conversely, the Yankees didn't add any starting pitching at the deadline, which everyone was convinced they were going to do, but there were no adverse effects.

 

Hate to say it but the doofus has been having a pretty good year - so far.

[OH FOY]

What might make the most sense with Mookie is trading him at the July 2020 deadline, unless we're in contention for the division (ha ha).

 

Give me your vision on what he might bring back? Please.

[Bellhorn04]

Give me your vision on what he might bring back? Please.

 

Unfortunately that's not my strength.

 

Have to dig up some comps from the past, for starters.

 

Machado brought back 5 prospects last year. As to their quality I can't say.

Edited August 8, 2019 by Bellhorn04