A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[dgalehouse]

Huh? There are plenty of what I would call average fans here, as there were on the old BDC site and other forums.

 

What you're saying is equivalent to saying the average person doesn't use social media.

That is a ridiculous analogy . How many Red Sox fans are there ? How many of them post on TalkSox ? What percentage ? Saying that there are some average fans on here does not in any way mean that the average fan posts on here or any other Sox forum . The vast , vast majority do not . That is not even debatable .

[moonslav59]

It is my belief that the average baseball fan is not into the ever growing , advanced metric alphabet soup of stats . When they look at pitchers , they look at wins , losses , ERA , saves , blown saves and strikeouts . When they look at hitters , they look at batting average , home runs , doubles , RBIs , runs scored and stolen bases . For those who enjoy the analytics , fine . Enjoy it . But I don't see it gaining widespread popularity any time soon .

 

I think OBP and OPS have moved up into the list of the "average fan" interests.

[dgalehouse]

Summing up what I think is true : Fans that post on baseball forums are much more likely to be into the advanced metrics . The average fan , who does not post on forums , is more likely to favor the traditional stats . If you disagree with that , it's okay . No problem .

[moonslav59]

Summing up what I think is true : Fans that post on baseball forums are much more likely to be into the advanced metrics . The average fan , who does not post on forums , is more likely to favor the traditional stats . If you disagree with that , it's okay . No problem .

 

I would think you are probably right. The more "into it" a fan is, like the ones that might post on these forums, is more likely to be into more stats and metrics, but I do think a lot of casual and traditional fans are interested and understanding of more stats and metrics than we might believe.

 

[notin]

Summing up what I think is true : Fans that post on baseball forums are much more likely to be into the advanced metrics . The average fan , who does not post on forums , is more likely to favor the traditional stats . If you disagree with that , it's okay . No problem .

 

But then what’s the extent of involvement for an “average fan?”

 

Do they attend games? Buy season tickets? Watch every game on TV? Subscribe to Baseball Digest? Read baseball websites like MLBTR, Fangraphs, etc.? Play fantasy baseball?

 

Or are we just talking about a guy who knocks back in a recliner with a couple beers and takes in a game because “Shark Fishing With The Stars” is on hiatus?

[jung]

I would think you are probably right. The more "into it" a fan is, like the ones that might post on these forums, is more likely to be into more stats and metrics, but I do think a lot of casual and traditional fans are interested and understanding of more stats and metrics than we might believe.

 

 

Tell Manfred that. He just blew the whole stat interest right out the window with his stupid meddling with the baseball. What are the stat masters going to do next, create OPS+RS for OPS+ including a factor for the rocket ship baseball? Good luck with that. You would have already had to change it three times just between 2016 and now.

 

The favorite pastime of valuing players has been career numbers versus current season numbers and current season numbers vs recent season numbers. That is shot now. Write a letter to the league office if you don't like it. But if you don't acknowledge it, you have your head in the sand.

[Bellhorn04]

Tell Manfred that. He just blew the whole stat interest right out the window with his stupid meddling with the baseball. What are the stat masters going to do next, create OPS+RS for OPS+ including a factor for the rocket ship baseball? Good luck with that. You would have already had to change it three times just between 2016 and now.

 

OPS+ does account for the rocket ship as much as it's possible, because it compares to what other players are doing that year.

[jung]

OPS+ does account for the rocket ship as much as it's possible, because it compares to what other players are doing that year.

 

OPS+ adjusts for park and league. That hardly gets it done. The rocket ship is a wholly independent element from park and league and Manfred has already changed it twice from the 2016 rocket ship. You are bastardizing your own stat to just claim "its covered". In fact, you cannot even calculate by how much you should factor it, But if you are going to fairly look at player seasonal stats and compare them to same player career and other season and then compare that player to other players using the same elements, you are done now unless somebody comes up with a real means to factor the rocket ship.

 

You can use OPS+ to compare players in a specific season now and that is about it. In fact, OPS is out the window for that matter.

[Bellhorn04]

OPS+ adjusts for park and league. That hardly gets it done. The rocket ship is a wholly independent element from park and league and Manfred has already changed it twice from the 2016 rocket ship. You are bastardizing your own stat to just claim "its covered". In fact, you cannot even calculate by how much you should factor it, But if you are going to fairly look at player seasonal stats and compare them to same player career and other season and then compare that player to other players using the same elements, you are done now unless somebody comes up with a real means to factor the rocket ship.

 

You can use OPS+ to compare players in a specific season now and that is about it. In fact, OPS is out the window for that matter.

 

Average MLB OPS is .755 this year. It was .728 last year. It's an increase of 3.7%. Very significant, but it doesn't mean everything is out the window.

 

It was .750 in 2017, in fact.

Edited July 27, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

OPS+ adjusts for park and league. That hardly gets it done. The rocket ship is a wholly independent element from park and league and Manfred has already changed it twice from the 2016 rocket ship. You are bastardizing your own stat to just claim "its covered". In fact, you cannot even calculate by how much you should factor it, But if you are going to fairly look at player seasonal stats and compare them to same player career and other season and then compare that player to other players using the same elements, you are done now unless somebody comes up with a real means to factor the rocket ship.

 

You can use OPS+ to compare players in a specific season now and that is about it. In fact, OPS is out the window for that matter.

 

Adjusting for park does take the Manfred Missile into account.

 

If the OPS in, say, Fenway for all hitters was .750, and this year it’s .850, you get a higher league average OPS aka an OPS+ of 0.

 

For example, last year Bogaerts had an OPS+ of 134 with an OPS of .883. This year Betts has an OPS+ of 135 with an OPS of .906. In 2009, or the year 6 BM (Before Manfred), Jason Bay had an OPS+ of 134 with an OPS of .921. The baseline moves...

[dgalehouse]

But then what’s the extent of involvement for an “average fan?”

 

Do they attend games? Buy season tickets? Watch every game on TV? Subscribe to Baseball Digest? Read baseball websites like MLBTR, Fangraphs, etc.? Play fantasy baseball?

 

Or are we just talking about a guy who knocks back in a recliner with a couple beers and takes in a game because “Shark Fishing With The Stars” is on hiatus?

 

Well , yeah . But only after reading the latest from Jeff Passan and discussing it with his pals down at Joe's Pub .

[jung]

Adjusting for park does take the Manfred Missile into account.

 

If the OPS in, say, Fenway for all hitters was .750, and this year it’s .850, you get a higher league average OPS aka an OPS+ of 0.

 

For example, last year Bogaerts had an OPS+ of 134 with an OPS of .883. This year Betts has an OPS+ of 135 with an OPS of .906. In 2009, or the year 6 BM (Before Manfred), Jason Bay had an OPS+ of 134 with an OPS of .921. The baseline moves...

 

Its called Weighted Factoring. Not to be taken seriously outside of one weighted factor per statistic. OPS+ is already over the line. Two weighted factors, park and league. Now you want to claim that the rocket ship is in there. Claim it if you want to but you are already past statistical merit in factoring for park and league as that is two weighted factors. All you end up with is a stew.

 

Have a venture capitalist visit your company with intentions to buy it and show him statistics with multiple weighted factors in them and he will be out the door faster than you can hail him a cab. It is in fact virtually the entire reason why even with all of the data crunching available today, a company "book" or annual report still includes a maddening number of separate line items because its money we are talking about and its the only way to present statistical data of merit.

 

You want to have fun with numbers....be my guest. But if the team I root for is making player personnel decisions and trade decisions based on statistics that employ multiple weighted factors in a given statistical measure and I will ask for a new front office, one that can see the forest and the trees.

 

On top of that you are trying to derive a weighted factor from a statistic that is already being weighted. The only way to do it would be to have a factor specific to the baseball itself. then you can develop a stat that employs that weighted factor. Even then you are kidding yourself if you think you can add it to a statistic that is already using two weighted factors. All you will have done is blended them into a mishmash of unreliable data added to what is already unreliable data as OPS+ already employs two weighted factors. Again, if you want to have fun with numbers, be my guest.But until Manfred admits what he is doing and provides you with the year by year weighting for the baseball, you are out of luck. You don't know more about the player in question using multiple weighted factor statistics. If anything, you know less.

Edited July 27, 2019 by jung

[Bellhorn04]

Its called Weighted Factoring. Not to be taken seriously outside of one weighted factor per statistic. OPS+ is already over the line. Two weighted factors, park and league. Now you want to claim that the rocket ship is in there. Claim it if you want to but you are already past statistical merit in factoring for park and league as that is two weighted factors. All you end up with is a stew.

 

Have a venture capitalist visit your company with intentions to buy it and show him statistics with multiple weighted factors in them and he will be out the door faster than you can hail him a cab. It is in fact virtually the entire reason why even with all of the data crunching available today, a company "book" or annual report still includes a maddening number of separate line items because its money we are talking about and its the only way to present statistical data of merit.

 

You want to have fun with numbers....be my guest. But if the team I root for is making player personnel decisions and trade decisions based on statistics that employ multiple weighted factors in a given statistical measure and I will ask for a new front office, one that can see the forest and the trees.

 

On top of that you are trying to derive a weighted factor from a statistic that is already being weighted. The only way to do it would be to have a factor specific to the baseball itself. then you can develop a stat that employs that weighted factor. Even then you are kidding yourself if you think you can add it to a statistic that is already using two weighted factors. All you will have done is blended them into a mishmash of unreliable data added to what is already unreliable data as OPS+ already employs two weighted factors. Again, if you want to have fun with numbers, be my guest.But until Manfred admits what he is doing and provides you with the year by year weighting for the baseball, you are out of luck. You don't know more about the player in question using multiple weighted factor statistics. If anything, you know less.

 

You're actually making things too complicated.

 

It's not that hard to compare offensive numbers in the Year of the Missile with numbers of other years and come up with a reasonable discounting factor, if your intent is to keep it simple.

[OH FOY]

Don't like OPS sorry. Just work a little.

[notin]

Its called Weighted Factoring. Not to be taken seriously outside of one weighted factor per statistic. OPS+ is already over the line. Two weighted factors, park and league. Now you want to claim that the rocket ship is in there. Claim it if you want to but you are already past statistical merit in factoring for park and league as that is two weighted factors. All you end up with is a stew.

 

Have a venture capitalist visit your company with intentions to buy it and show him statistics with multiple weighted factors in them and he will be out the door faster than you can hail him a cab. It is in fact virtually the entire reason why even with all of the data crunching available today, a company "book" or annual report still includes a maddening number of separate line items because its money we are talking about and its the only way to present statistical data of merit.

 

You want to have fun with numbers....be my guest. But if the team I root for is making player personnel decisions and trade decisions based on statistics that employ multiple weighted factors in a given statistical measure and I will ask for a new front office, one that can see the forest and the trees.

 

On top of that you are trying to derive a weighted factor from a statistic that is already being weighted. The only way to do it would be to have a factor specific to the baseball itself. then you can develop a stat that employs that weighted factor. Even then you are kidding yourself if you think you can add it to a statistic that is already using two weighted factors. All you will have done is blended them into a mishmash of unreliable data added to what is already unreliable data as OPS+ already employs two weighted factors. Again, if you want to have fun with numbers, be my guest.But until Manfred admits what he is doing and provides you with the year by year weighting for the baseball, you are out of luck. You don't know more about the player in question using multiple weighted factor statistics. If anything, you know less.

 

It’s really not two weighted factors, as “park” is a subset of “league”. You're trying to over complicate it.

 

A baseline is determined for the AL parks. If the baseball is a factor, the baseline will rise. The only factor going into it is OPS in a variety of locations...

[cp176]

i clearly do not hang out with the "right fans". Now before you misunderstand me, i absolutely appreciate the great love of all metrics that many who post here have. I think that it is wonderful, just not my thing and I do consider myself a very good fan of the game. To take it one step further, no one and I mean no one that I know when having a conversation about the red sox or baseball in general has ever referred to anything that could even remotely be considered an advanced metric. I enjoy all of you folks who have such love for them and i do appreciate their significance but I truly do not think that fans that I know anyway discuss athletics in this way. And although I respect the knowledge base of anyone who has learned not only the terminology of metrics but also how they can be used, I do not think that gaining that knowledge makes anyone anything particularly special.

[moonslav59]

8 down to the Yanks.

 

4 down to the Guardians for the 1st WC slot.

 

0.5 up on TBR & OAK on the 2nd slot.

 

Sweep the Skanks and call it a nice weekend!

[YastrzemskI]

8 down to the Yanks.

 

4 down to the Guardians for the 1st WC slot.

 

0.5 up on TBR & OAK on the 2nd slot.

 

Sweep the Skanks and call it a nice weekend!

 

Sale on the hill tomorrow. Hopefully he uses this opportunity to sweep the Skanks as motivation.. goes out there and executes his pitches. How about a dominant performance.. a low scoring 3-2 or 4-1 win.. call it a series. I want to see Sale dominate. It’s time.

[oldtimer]

8 down to the Yanks.

 

4 down to the Guardians for the 1st WC slot.

 

0.5 up on TBR & OAK on the 2nd slot.

 

Sweep the Skanks and call it a nice weekend!

 

I enjoy reading the Yankee site after the three beatings we have given them. Not panicing yet, but they realize they have a serious issue with pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

We have a serious issue with our starting pitching. The issue right now is that all of them are off. By the POs, we are gonna need at least one starter from outside this 25 man, maybe two. I have faith that Tanaka and Paxton have it figured out because they’re actually good major league pitchers. I don’t have faith in Coronary Cripple or JA Bleh. Severino coming back and German pitching decent give me hope that one of them can take a spot, but expecting both to is fools gold. We need one more guy, and preferably one we can throw in front or at the 2 spot in a rotation

[moonslav59]

We have a serious issue with our starting pitching. The issue right now is that all of them are off. By the POs, we are gonna need at least one starter from outside this 25 man, maybe two. I have faith that Tanaka and Paxton have it figured out because they’re actually good major league pitchers. I don’t have faith in Coronary Cripple or JA Bleh. Severino coming back and German pitching decent give me hope that one of them can take a spot, but expecting both to is fools gold. We need one more guy, and preferably one we can throw in front or at the 2 spot in a rotation

 

I tried to warn you last March.

 

[dannycater]

EROD has been the Sox ace, and if Sale could just be Sale, this team will take off. Rock the Cashner is gonna be big too.

[moonslav59]

EROD has been the Sox ace, and if Sale could just be Sale, this team will take off. Rock the Cashner is gonna be big too.

 

Price should be mentioned, too.

 

As bad as our starters have done this year, as a whole, they look to be in a much better position than the Yanks rotation, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I just posted this rather incredible split on the Yankees thread:

 

Yankee staff ERA - home 3.35

Yankee staff ERA - road 5.56

[dannycater]

Agreed on Price, and what's interesting about Porcello is as bad as he's been, he still has a 2-game above .500 record. Not that it matters, but always better to be winning.

[moonslav59]

Agreed on Price, and what's interesting about Porcello is as bad as he's been, he still has a 2-game above .500 record. Not that it matters, but always better to be winning.

 

Plus, we are 13-8 in his 21 starts!

 

Evidence that W-L's are not always good indicators of a pitcher's performance level.

[Nick]

Plus, we are 13-8 in his 21 starts!

 

Evidence that W-L's are not always good indicators of a pitcher's performance level.

 

Offense has carried the Yankees this year. Yankees just doesn't seem a lock to win the World Series. Pitching matters in playoffs and they are struggling. We've been there but our guys are coming around.

 

I think about our Yankee fans on this board....I hope they are not out on the ledge.

[Bellhorn04]

Offense has carried the Yankees this year. Yankees just doesn't seem a lock to win the World Series. Pitching matters in playoffs and they are struggling. We've been there but our guys are coming around.

 

I think about our Yankee fans on this board....I hope they are not out on the ledge.

 

The Yankee fans on this board are relatively level-headed. But on the NYYFans forum I visit, they have been ripping Hal, Cashman, and Larry Rothschild (Pajama Larry LOL) for the state of the starting pitching.

[dgalehouse]

We have a serious issue with our starting pitching. The issue right now is that all of them are off. By the POs, we are gonna need at least one starter from outside this 25 man, maybe two. I have faith that Tanaka and Paxton have it figured out because they’re actually good major league pitchers. I don’t have faith in Coronary Cripple or JA Bleh. Severino coming back and German pitching decent give me hope that one of them can take a spot, but expecting both to is fools gold. We need one more guy, and preferably one we can throw in front or at the 2 spot in a rotation

 

" Serious issue " is an understatement . The Yank's starting rotation is a shell - shocked mess . Tonight is poor Domingo's turn to get shellacked . I am thinking he is a nervous wreck this afternoon.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks are going to acquire a SP'er of merit, but I doubt that will be enough to make them a top rotation team.