A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

LOL.

 

Not sure what the point you are making. His velocity is still down, whether I have a reason or not.

 

I said "last April," meaning 2018 April. Sale's 2019 June-July velocity is about the same as (or less than) April 2018- which is significantly lower than his norm. Try to follow along.

 

 

When someone posts something worth poking holes in, I'll do it. Just because I have no better theory doesn't mean I can't point out your falsities or speculative meanderings.

 

The point that Sale is not pitching well over the last 3-5 starts is a separate issue from restgate, except that it makes me wonder why he seems weak now, when all the rest and pampering should have made him stronger at this point in the season.

 

You can cling to his May and claim he is pitching near his norm, but just about everyone else have major concerns about his effectiveness.

 

Here are the charts, again:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

And when you don't have a point, I will point that out. His velocity last April was higher than his velocity this April due to lack of ramping up. His uptick to 99-100 last year was the result of a mechanical adjustment and that was well above his norm. It was probably not sustainable over a full season resulting in is arm problems late last year. Edited July 10, 2019 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

And when you don't have a point, I will point that out.

 

Sounds pointless but carry on....

[a700hitter]

Sounds pointless but carry on....

Also it should be pointed out that his velocity last April was higher than his velocity this April due to lack of ramping up. His uptick to 99-100 last year was the result of a mechanical adjustment and that was well above his norm. It was probably not sustainable over a full season resulting in is arm problems late last year. His velocity last April wasn't that far off his norms.

[moonslav59]

Also it should be pointed out that his velocity last April was higher than his velocity this April due to lack of ramping up. His uptick to 99-100 last year was the result of a mechanical adjustment and that was well above his norm. It was probably not sustainable over a full season resulting in is arm problems late last year. His velocity last April wasn't that far off his norms.

 

From his previous April norms? Maybe "near," but still lower.

 

His 2018 April velocity was much lower than his norm and slightly lower than his previous April norms.

 

You keep acting like I'm doubting his velocity was low in April or than the extra rest was a reason for this. Nothing is farther than the truth.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2013&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

My point was that Sale's 2019 post April velocity is close to his velocity of April 2018 NOT the rest of 2018 or his norms from previous seasons. I'd have expected better with all the rest. He had one freakish game this year, where his velocity spiked, and it was his 4th start of the year (still in April). The rest of his season has been fully below norms.

[a700hitter]

From his previous April norms? Maybe "near," but still lower.

 

His 2018 April velocity was much lower than his norm and slightly lower than his previous April norms.

 

You keep acting like I'm doubting his velocity was low in April or than the extra rest was a reason for this. Nothing is farther than the truth.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2013&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

My point was that Sale's 2019 post April velocity is close to his velocity of April 2018 NOT the rest of 2018 or his norms from previous seasons. I'd have expected better with all the rest. He had one freakish game this year, where his velocity spiked, and it was his 4th start of the year (still in April). The rest of his season has been fully below norms.

I wouldn’t count on seeing the sustained 99-100 from him anytime soon. I think he could make the same adjustment as he did last season, but I think that led to his shoulder issue. He can be dominating at 94/95, but the stretch last season before then All Star break was other worldly and it wasn’t his norm either. In any even, I am not worried about him unless he gets hurt. He has been fine since May1st. But for lack of support, bad defense and a crappy bullpen his won -loss record would be the reverse of what it is.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t count on seeing the sustained 99-100 from him anytime soon. I think he could make the same adjustment as he did last season, but I think that led to his shoulder issue. He can be dominating at 94/95, but the stretch last season before then All Star break was other worldly and it wasn’t his norm either. In any even, I am not worried about him unless he gets hurt. He has been fine since May1st. But for lack of support, bad defense and a crappy bullpen his won -loss record would be the reverse of what it is.

 

True. I agree on the probable cause of his shoulder issues. I'm not talking about that freakish stretch as his "norm".

 

We can beat the May 1st date to death, but he was fine from May 1st to May 30th (5 GS)

2.23 ERA

 

He has NOT been fine since, and the sample size is larger than the May one. He's been okay but far from his "norm" after May 24th.

3.83 ERA in 7 GS'd and 5.96 his last 4 starts.

 

As for the bad W-L record, yes run support has been exceedingly low. To see our 5th starters combine for a winning record & us having a 6-12 record in Sale starts baffles my mind. That being said, he's only had 3 games where he clearly deserved to win.

 

4/2 lost 1-0

5/14 lost 5-4 (7 IP 2 ER)

6/10 lost 4-3 (7 IP 0 ER & 1 Run)

 

Realistically, we should/could be 9-9 in his starts.

 

[S5Dewey]

 

Your thoughts are welcome.

 

How much would you be willing to sacrifice for 2020 to try to make a run in 2019? If in some fantasy world DD were able to trade Chavis, Marco, Beni & a couple of our "best" MiL players for a real #3 pitcher and a closer.. would you do it?

[Slasher9]

How much would you be willing to sacrifice for 2020 to try to make a run in 2019? If in some fantasy world DD were able to trade Chavis, Marco, Beni & a couple of our "best" MiL players for a real #3 pitcher and a closer.. would you do it?

 

If we were 3 or 4 games back in the division, I would. Not this many back. We are looking at a 1 game playin game and I wouldn’t mortgage that much for a #3.

[jacksonianmarch]

How much would you be willing to sacrifice for 2020 to try to make a run in 2019? If in some fantasy world DD were able to trade Chavis, Marco, Beni & a couple of our "best" MiL players for a real #3 pitcher and a closer.. would you do it?

 

2020 is even further down the ladder than 2019. The window for being an elite team is closing.

[moonslav59]

How much would you be willing to sacrifice for 2020 to try to make a run in 2019? If in some fantasy world DD were able to trade Chavis, Marco, Beni & a couple of our "best" MiL players for a real #3 pitcher and a closer.. would you do it?

 

I'm thinking DD and Henry do not want the "cliff" to be last place finishes, so they will not sacrifice too much of 2020 or beyond to improve our odds this year.

 

DD may try to find a similar deal as the 2018 Eovaldi deal in hopes or repeating the magic withou giving up too much.

[S5Dewey]

I'm thinking DD and Henry do not want the "cliff" to be last place finishes, so they will not sacrifice too much of 2020 or beyond to improve our odds this year.

 

DD may try to find a similar deal as the 2018 Eovaldi deal in hopes or repeating the magic withou giving up too much.

 

I agree, and when I look at the 2019 team combined with JH's checkbook I believe that the "cliff" team's W/L record will look much like the 2019 team's W/L record.

[moonslav59]

I agree, and when I look at the 2019 team combined with JH's checkbook I believe that the "cliff" team's W/L record will look much like the 2019 team's W/L record.

 

If we try to totally reset, we will have a step down, but if not, I agree, we should be hanging around the WC level.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm thinking DD and Henry do not want the "cliff" to be last place finishes, so they will not sacrifice too much of 2020 or beyond to improve our odds this year.

 

DD may try to find a similar deal as the 2018 Eovaldi deal in hopes or repeating the magic withou giving up too much.

 

The problem in baseball is mediocrity. Mediocre teams take a LONG time to rebuild. The Sox retooled after the 2004 season, made the POs in 2005, missed out in 2006, but had a surge in 2007 because their farm was loaded. They stayed relevant until 2011 when the team died in September. They finished in last in 2012 then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013 with the core of the 2007 team largely intact (Pedey, Papi, Lester) and big time help from the farm (Xander) during the POs. Their 2014-2015 teams were duds, but their strong farm system and enviable cap space allowed them to deal for studs or sign them and won the division 3 years in a row and a title last year. They’re not entirely heading for a major downturn in 2019, but they’re clearly not as good as the record setting team last year. The problems with this squad and the main reason for the cliff are two fold. The Sox have a TON of money tied up in this team. Each time the Sox reloaded and won a title, they could spend. Well, you’ve got Pedey, Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Bogaerts locked up at $111 mil annually for the next 3 seasons. That’s halfway to the second limit on 4 players, one of which will never play again, another who is a 34 yr old 5.5 inning pitcher, another is a flailing ace, and the last cannot stay healthy. The kids around this core are either expensive (Betts) or heading there and your farm is as thin as it has ever been. Staying in the race and flailing the team is a great way to deepen the cliff. The paid guys get old, the farm continues to get depleted in a quest to hold on and your checkbook reaches its limit.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, you’ve got Pedey, Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Bogaerts locked up at $111 mil annually for the next 3 seasons. That’s halfway to the second limit on 4 players, one of which will never play again, another who is a 34 yr old 5.5 inning pitcher, another is a flailing ace, and the last cannot stay healthy.

 

I think you mean 5 players, one of which will never play again.

[jung]

The mistake DD made was in not cleaning house after the 2018 run. You keep the core of the team, your young stars unless somebody makes you an offer you can't refuse in which case, anybody can go. Yet DD decided he had to validate moves by reinvesting in the same pieces:

- Pearce, a total waste

- Nate, fine to sign but not at $17M per. If you wanted him, find a way without overspending for him. Certainly don't pay $17M for him and then throw up your hands and call him your Closer. DD has lost the script here.

- Sale, should not have extended him into a proven history of fading EVERY SINGLE SEASON. Now we own him till 2024 at almost $29M per....BRILLIANT! I don't care that he could pass a physical. Wear has never been considered an injury. So passing a physical simply does not give you the whole story. Wear is considered an injury when tissue starts visibly shredding and bone starts visibly crumbling. THEN ITS AN INJURY. Yet pitchers do nothing but wear and since none of them throw with their legs any longer while all trying to throw a ball through a brick wall, they wear away faster now.

 

Offing Kelly and Kimbrel was OK. But doing nothing to replace them was like WHAT? What are you doing DD. Are you saying that they were so useless that they did not need to be replaced? Is that what you are saying? What the f*** was that? We didn't need to replace them but boy we sure needed that platoon 1st baseman. Get serious!

Edited July 11, 2019 by jung

[jacksonianmarch]

This is the DD history, though. Deal off the unknown for the known. He did it for the 97 Marlins bringing in Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, etc and won a title. Management forced a rebuild, which was probably the best thing for the club as the rebuild was integral in their 2003 title. But DD didn’t stick around for the entire process.

 

DD took over a Tigers team that had lost at least 90 a season for 5+ seasons. They very nearly broke the Mets record for losses as well. But that stretch allowed them to draft high and they got good bang for their buck. They made a major trade with the Marlins and got themselves a HOF 1b. They had a HOF starter (Verlander) that came up during the WS run in 06. DD dealt from his surplus, but didn’t go for broke and added all stars to the roster. Their team was good but faded due to injury for 2 seasons before he really went for broke. Along the way, he picked up scherzer in a 3 team deal. He picked up Greene in a 3 team deal. DD was dealing young talent for young talent and it worked. But the long success thinned his farm, then he made the ill fated deal to get Price, spent an enormous amount on Prince Fielder and his team got old suddenly. Now the tigers are staring at an enormous rebuild with all 3 of their CY winning pitchers on other clubs and the extension of Cabrera looking like the worst contract in history. This is your future. DD goes for broke and he did that. He decimated your farm, stuck you with an enormous bill and has left you with an underachieving squad. But flags fly forever

[jung]

If DD makes a move to extend Porcello the top of my head will explode!

[Bellhorn04]

DD was dealing young talent for young talent and it worked. But the long success thinned his farm, then he made the ill fated deal to get Price, spent an enormous amount on Prince Fielder and his team got old suddenly.

 

There was nothing 'ill fated' about DD's trade for Price or subsequent trade of Price to the Jays.

[Bellhorn04]

If DD makes a move to extend Porcello the top of my head will explode!

 

I think the top of your head is about to explode anyway, but you don't have to worry about that being the cause.

[notin]

There was nothing 'ill fated' about DD's trade for Price or subsequent trade of Price to the Jays.

 

He did give up Willy Adames, but then Adames was only 18 at the time and a lot could have happened. But I don’t think losing Disabled Drew Smyly hurt Detroit. In fact, I think Smyly might have actually gotten injured in the deal somehow...

[Hitch]

When there are enough of them that are baseball fans or actually for MLB''s sake give a rats behind about MLB wake me up.

 

As a group, they just don't care and frankly, I don't blame them.

 

My kids friends are hockey fans, basketball fans, AMERICAN FOOTBALL fans, football fans. They will ooh-and -ahh over HR's when they glance sideways at video screen and see one. They make no effort to watch games, much less understand the game at a level that would allow them to know what the heck is actually going on out there or end up with any genuine interest in it. They make no effort to even determine when a game might be available to watch. Its wallpaper to them.

 

Again with 5x the viewership of the 18-49 year old demographic tied up in the 65+ year old demographic and none of the MLB's crap having moved the needle at all, what happens to MLB when my generation starts dying off. We don't have that far to go before we start pushing up daisies. Viewership is generally down across the board. Attendance is down in all likelihood because game attendance has transitioned from sports entertainment to general entertainment and there are plenty of ways to spend general entertainment dollars.

 

Again, I disagree. They were haemorrhaging fans before they started changing things up. The need to speed up changes within the game was driven by the fact that younger kids were/are not taking to the game in the same sort of numbers and they were losing numbers in general.

 

They are trying to make a new kind of baseball that attracts the new generation of sport watchers. Without them, the sport will die (hyperbole) eventually. The new generation is always the sports lifeblood.

 

I dislike a lot of what they are doing as well, but as I read from someone else in here recently, unfortunately you'd better get used to it. This is just the start. Adapt or die.

[kenmeister]

 

Eovaldi to closer: demote Walden to AAA.

 

 

Why does Walden go down but Taylor & Brewer stay?

[notin]

Why does Walden go down but Taylor & Brewer stay?

 

1. Walden’s Magic Carpet Ride appears to be coming to a stop. And he does have one option left.

2. Taylor is the only lefty in the bullpen and has been pitching better.

3. Brewer has actually gotten better as well. But demotion isn’t out of the realm of possibility for him at some point.

[moonslav59]

...then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013...

 

Urban myth.

 

Some had better years than 2012 and 2014, but very few had "career years."

[moonslav59]

The problem in baseball is mediocrity. Mediocre teams take a LONG time to rebuild. The Sox retooled after the 2004 season, made the POs in 2005, missed out in 2006, but had a surge in 2007 because their farm was loaded. They stayed relevant until 2011 when the team died in September. They finished in last in 2012 then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013 with the core of the 2007 team largely intact (Pedey, Papi, Lester) and big time help from the farm (Xander) during the POs. Their 2014-2015 teams were duds, but their strong farm system and enviable cap space allowed them to deal for studs or sign them and won the division 3 years in a row and a title last year. They’re not entirely heading for a major downturn in 2019, but they’re clearly not as good as the record setting team last year. The problems with this squad and the main reason for the cliff are two fold. The Sox have a TON of money tied up in this team. Each time the Sox reloaded and won a title, they could spend. Well, you’ve got Pedey, Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Bogaerts locked up at $111 mil annually for the next 3 seasons. That’s halfway to the second limit on 4 players, one of which will never play again, another who is a 34 yr old 5.5 inning pitcher, another is a flailing ace, and the last cannot stay healthy. The kids around this core are either expensive (Betts) or heading there and your farm is as thin as it has ever been. Staying in the race and flailing the team is a great way to deepen the cliff. The paid guys get old, the farm continues to get depleted in a quest to hold on and your checkbook reaches its limit.

 

I was talking about 2019. We may only need to find a guy like the 2018 Eovaldi (for Beeks) to make a strong run this year. While I admit we got a bit lucky with Nate's playoff performance, we may not have to empty the farm to get much better at the deadline.

 

I have been one to recognize the trouble we will be in starting in 2020 or 2021, even if we are spending up to the second limit each of those years. No convincing needed here.

[jung]

Again, I disagree. They were haemorrhaging fans before they started changing things up. The need to speed up changes within the game was driven by the fact that younger kids were/are not taking to the game in the same sort of numbers and they were losing numbers in general.

 

They are trying to make a new kind of baseball that attracts the new generation of sport watchers. Without them, the sport will die (hyperbole) eventually. The new generation is always the sports lifeblood.

 

I dislike a lot of what they are doing as well, but as I read from someone else in here recently, unfortunately you'd better get used to it. This is just the start. Adapt or die.

 

They are still hemorrhaging fans. Wait till you see the bloodletting when my generation starts dying off in earnest. My generation is the only thing buoying the whole enterprise at this point as baseball entertainment. Now there are still fans showing up at Fenway for the Fenway Carnival. Not sure that has much to do with baseball AND even THAT is down.

Edited July 11, 2019 by jung

[moonslav59]

This is the DD history, though. Deal off the unknown for the known. He did it for the 97 Marlins bringing in Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, etc and won a title. Management forced a rebuild, which was probably the best thing for the club as the rebuild was integral in their 2003 title. But DD didn’t stick around for the entire process.

 

DD took over a Tigers team that had lost at least 90 a season for 5+ seasons. They very nearly broke the Mets record for losses as well. But that stretch allowed them to draft high and they got good bang for their buck. They made a major trade with the Marlins and got themselves a HOF 1b. They had a HOF starter (Verlander) that came up during the WS run in 06. DD dealt from his surplus, but didn’t go for broke and added all stars to the roster. Their team was good but faded due to injury for 2 seasons before he really went for broke. Along the way, he picked up scherzer in a 3 team deal. He picked up Greene in a 3 team deal. DD was dealing young talent for young talent and it worked. But the long success thinned his farm, then he made the ill fated deal to get Price, spent an enormous amount on Prince Fielder and his team got old suddenly. Now the tigers are staring at an enormous rebuild with all 3 of their CY winning pitchers on other clubs and the extension of Cabrera looking like the worst contract in history. This is your future. DD goes for broke and he did that. He decimated your farm, stuck you with an enormous bill and has left you with an underachieving squad. But flags fly forever

 

We don't have a "MIggy contract". We still have some solid, low-cost players like Devers, Beni, ERod & maybe Chavis. Many feel we underpaid Bogey & Sale. Many of our big contracts are up in 1-3 years. It's not quite as bad as Detroit or Fla, but there are certainly big financial and farm system issues to deal with that have near impossible ways to fix in today's systems.

 

I agree with your mediocrity position. Never getting any top draft picks by having a real "cliff" year or two makes it almost impossible to ever rebuild the farm to decency, let alone one of the best like we had back in the early to mid 2000's and the Betts-Bogey-Bradley era.

 

On the bright side, does it really look like major losses, based on how these guys are doing this year and the fact that we are still in the playoff race, to lose:

 

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Nunez

Holt

Thornburg

 

I'm not so sure 2020is the year we suffer greatly.

 

We may even end up trading JBJ and bringing in a low-cost, defensive CF'er that hits a consistent .690-.720 and hardly miss a beat. (Maybe?)

 

We may see Pedey retire and save us some bucks, but that is unlikely.

 

If JD leaves, we can reset, but we won't be true contenders without him, and we won't be a last place team either and be able to draft the next Beni with the 7th pick.

 

Only Sale and Bogey are under contract until 2023. Only Eovaldi, Price and Vaz until 2022. We have the flexibility to totally reset and be bad for one year, if we want. I guess Sale could become our "Miggy," but I still have faith.

 

I have no faith our farm can be rebuilt to top 10 or even 15 without a firesale at some point in the next 2 years. If we match that up with a one time budget reset and one "bad year" we may be able to get back to the top in a short time. It will take at least a couple big decisions by Henry & DD.

[moonslav59]

They are still hemorrhaging fans. Wait till you see the bloodletting when my generation starts dying off in earnest. My generation is the only thing buoying the whole enterprise at this point as baseball entertainment. Now there are still fans showing up at Fenway for the Fenway Carnival. Not sure that has much to do with baseball AND even THAT is down.

 

There is a chance a 2 hour 15 minute, highly offensive game can capture kids hearts. I think that is the gamble we are headed towards.

[jung]

There is a chance a 2 hour 15 minute, highly offensive game can capture kids hearts. I think that is the gamble we are headed towards.

 

Based on WHAT!!!! All the evidence is that MLB has been and still is headed EXACTLY the other way. None of the crap they have tried to shorten games has worked either and initiating policy and practices that has created more HR's and more K's goes in EXACTLY the opposite direction.

 

Average length for games over the entire 2018 season was 3:05.58. Average length for the first half of 2019 or approximately 90 games was 3:00.11. Do we really think games will get shorter down the stretch or do we think they will get longer down the stretch/ I have little hope that the approximate 4 minute dif between 2018 and 2019 will hold up over the second half and it rose to 3:05 for the 2017 season.

 

As for whether MLB will actually be able to initiate a pitch clock ......I would say that there is going to be a battle there.

 

Give pitchers back a reasonable baseball, which means Manfred will have to admit that they know the ball is juiced and that they have juiced it more each year for at least 3 of the last 4 years and you might then have less of a battle over a pitch clock.

[Bellhorn04]

Based on WHAT!!!! All the evidence is that MLB has been and still is headed EXACTLY the other way. None of the crap they have tried to shorten games has worked either and initiating policy and practices that has created more HR's and more K's goes in EXACTLY the opposite direction.

 

Average length for games over the entire 2018 season was 3:05.58. Average length for the first half of 2019 or approximately 90 games was 3:00.11. Do we really think games will get shorter down the stretch or do we think they will get longer down the stretch/ I have little hope that the approximate 4 minute dif between 2018 and 2019 will hold up over the second half and it rose to 3:05 for the 2017 season.

 

As for whether MLB will actually be able to initiate a pitch clock ......I would say that there is going to be a battle there.

 

Give pitchers back a reasonable baseball, which means Manfred will have to admit that they know the ball is juiced and that they have juiced it more each year for at least 3 of the last 4 years and you might then have less of a battle over a pitch clock.

 

I think the ball will be different next year. The 'juiced ball' has become a significant and embarrassing news item for MLB.

 

Next year we will also see the 3 batter minimum for pitchers.

 

Don't give up hope, jung.