A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Its not that it didn't happen. Its just that Bellhorn "has no recollection of that event".

 

That's nonsense, Fred. I'm as aware of Restgate as anyone here. I used the term a lot. We also used the term Leongate (thanks Slash).

 

I'm here just about every day talking about these things.

 

I'm not disputing the facts that the Red Sox dictated a lightened spring workload for Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi.

 

What I'm questioning is the alleged purpose of that lightened workload and the magnitude of it.

[notin]

How bad is SOX pitching? Cora couldn't find it within himself to pick even one SOX pitcher for the all-star game.

 

1. He really shouldn’t play favorites anyway

 

2. He probably likes giving them days off, something he hasn’t had a chance to do since Spring Training.

 

3. Which one should honestly feel slighted?

[OH FOY]

They will get the workload now. 34 games in 36 days.

[Slasher9]

1. He really shouldn’t play favorites anyway

 

2. He probably likes giving them days off, something he hasn’t had a chance to do since Spring Training.

 

3. Which one should honestly feel slighted?

 

4. He wanted to win the game

[Bellhorn04]

Links:

 

https://nesn.com/2019/01/red-sox-reportedly-will-be-cautious-with-pitchers-in-spring-training/

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2019/04/02/red-sox-spring-training-plan-starting-pitchers-backfired/

 

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/02/23/mastrodonato-red-sox-spring-training-prompts-new-questions-for-2019/

 

This next link discusses holding back Sale in specific:

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2019/02/16/red-sox-pitchers-spring-training/

 

https://985thesportshub.com/2019/03/06/red-sox-starting-pitchers-cleared-for-spring-debuts/

 

But it didn't happen.

 

Thanks. Here's an excerpt from one of the articles you linked.

 

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

March 6, 2019

Red Sox starting pitchers cleared for spring debuts

By Matt McCarthy, 985TheSportsHub.com

Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello are all set to make their spring training debuts in the coming week as the Red Sox cautiously work to get their top four starting pitchers ready for the regular season.

The Red Sox have avoided using their starters in Grapefruit League action up until this point in an attempt to manage their workload. The decision came after the team used Price, Eovaldi, and Porcello heavily in both the rotation and the bullpen last October. Sale, meanwhile, is coming off a shoulder problem that limited him at the end of last season.

 

The word 'caution' in various forms appeared in several of the articles.

 

My main takeaway from the articles is that the team was very concerned about the impact of the postseason run and the fact that the starters also pitched those high-stress innings out of the pen.

 

I don't see it as some brilliant new-fangled scheme to have these guys peak later in the season. I see it primarily as an attempt to preserve their health.

[jung]

I suspect that Sale might be the only guy they were trying to get deeper into the season because his late season fads are becoming legendary now. As for the rest of them, Nate has been down, Price has been down and BJ, their backup has been down. Not sure that favoring the Starters because of late season 2018 stress has worked out if that was the rational either.

 

Certainly would agree that using Starters in relief roles when they still had starts to make in the post season should have and likely has had some consequences. However all that says is that if you think you have a window provided by the contractual control you have over your young stars, using your starters that way may likely win you a WS run (don't think the Sox would have won in 2018 without doing that). However thinking you are going back to back playing Manfred-ball and using your starters that way is likely more than optimistic.....Its Alice in Wonderland optimistic. Better off pulling a Bill Belechick and making some hard choices before the season starts if you really want to try to go back to back. Seems to me the front office avoided all of those. All they did was can two of the guys from the pen apparently acknowledging that there 2018 pen was not strong enough....then did nothing to even replace them.

[Kimmi]

We didn't make it up here. It was their strategy and it has been discussed during broadcasts etc. Let's not act like it didn't happen or that it was so insignificant that it wouldn't make a difference one way or the other - early or late in the season. It was designed to have an effect later in the season. To deny that they changed the throwing program in any significant manner during ST is just making up s*** as U.N. used to say. People need to stop making up s*** on this issue.

 

The spring training innings alone would likely not make a difference, but those saved innings, along with innings saved throughout the first 4 or 5 months of the season should make a difference on how strong the pitchers are in September and October.

 

The verdict is still out for this season.

[Kimmi]

And you are a really ill informed baseball fan.

 

Bell is one of the best and most knowledgeable posters here.

[Kimmi]

4. He wanted to win the game

 

Ouch.

[notin]

Bell is one of the best and most knowledgeable posters here.

 

Also one of the most Canadian...

[illinoisredsox]

1. He really shouldn’t play favorites anyway

 

2. He probably likes giving them days off, something he hasn’t had a chance to do since Spring Training.

 

3. Which one should honestly feel slighted?

 

Exactly. Price is the only one who even merited some consideration, and his case isn't a real strong one.

[OH FOY]

Just this weekend Sox have to get the lead out, Dodgers play bad on the road, but they are still the Dodgers, and they are getting Seager back.

Yanks play Toronto, Rays play the Orioles.

[jacksonianmarch]

The spring training innings alone would likely not make a difference, but those saved innings, along with innings saved throughout the first 4 or 5 months of the season should make a difference on how strong the pitchers are in September and October.

 

The verdict is still out for this season.

 

Here’s where the ST change cost them. The Sox come out getting waxed. Instead of the pitchers gradually working up their stuff as they would in ST, they are now panicking to get up to speed sooner resulting in lost mechanics and conditioning. Preparation is what sets apart the professionals and amateurs. The Sox thought they could take an amateur approach and beat professional teams. That arrogance was soundly demolished

[harmony]

Here’s where the ST change cost them. The Sox come out getting waxed. Instead of the pitchers gradually working up their stuff as they would in ST, they are now panicking to get up to speed sooner resulting in lost mechanics and conditioning. Preparation is what sets apart the professionals and amateurs. The Sox thought they could take an amateur approach and beat professional teams. That arrogance was soundly demolished

The Red Sox opened the season by going 2-6 in Seattle and Oakland after last year's 108-win club had posted a 3-4 record in Seattle (in June) and Oakland (in late April).

 

The waxing was not that far out of the ordinary.

[a700hitter]

That's nonsense, Fred. I'm as aware of Restgate as anyone here. I used the term a lot. We also used the term Leongate (thanks Slash).

 

I'm here just about every day talking about these things.

 

I'm not disputing the facts that the Red Sox dictated a lightened spring workload for Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi.

 

What I'm questioning is the alleged purpose of that lightened workload and the magnitude of it.

Their throwing program in the spring was delayed. That is not a disputed fact. Sale did not get up on a mound throwing to batters until at least a couple of weeks after ST started. I don’t think he made his first game appearance for until week 3. This set back the process of building arm-strength.

[moonslav59]

Everybody's arm strength should have been built up by now, yet we are still seeing inconsistency, reduced velocity, pampering and ineffectiveness from our top starters (some only one or two from my list of words).

 

June 6 to Present (last 29 games)

 

6.54 Porcedllo (6 GS/ 32 IP)

4.55 C Sale (5 GS /30 IP)

4.21 E Rod (6 GS/ 36 IP)

3.99 Price (6 GS/ 29 IP)

 

If these 4 don't start pitching like they are capable of and were expected to do, then no realistic amount of trades will help us get over the hump.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

I was one of the first to mention the apparent lack of focus and preparation in spring training . Very few agreed with me at the time . Now , almost all agree that things should have been done differently in the spring. However , we can't use that as an excuse forever. It should not make a difference now . It is time for these guys to step up and produce the way we expected they would. No excuses .

[jacksonianmarch]

Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. They throw, run, long toss, bullpen, run, then pitch again. You screw up their habits or put them on the hill in games that count before they are ready and they will be out of synch. The entire rotation is out of synch and they haven't been able to come up for breath. The ASG may help or the extra tumult thrown in there could be another jolt to the system

[kenmeister]

Everybody's arm strength should have been built up by now, yet we are still seeing inconsistency, reduced velocity, pampering and ineffectiveness from our top starters (some only one or two from my list of words).

 

June 6 to Present (last 29 games)

 

6.54 Porcedllo (6 GS/ 32 IP)

4.55 C Sale (5 GS /30 IP)

4.21 E Rod (6 GS/ 36 IP)

3.99 Price (6 GS/ 29 IP)

 

If these 4 don't start pitching like they are capable of and were expected to do, then no realistic amount of trades will help us get over the hump.

 

 

 

I was hoping Eovaldi's electric stuff would push the others. This year is just a disappointment, and I don't see it turning around substantially.

[moonslav59]

I was hoping Eovaldi's electric stuff would push the others. This year is just a disappointment, and I don't see it turning around substantially.

 

I disagree. All of our big 4 starters have been good to excellent for most of the time over the last 2-3 years (or longer). I don't see it as being unreasonable to expect these guys to return to their recent 2-3 year norm over the remainder of the season.

 

There was a sign they were coming around in May, and I'm hopeful the last 29 game sample size is just a slump about to end.

[a700hitter]

Cycle

Everybody's arm strength should have been built up by now, yet we are still seeing inconsistency, reduced velocity, pampering and ineffectiveness from our top starters (some only one or two from my list of words).

 

June 6 to Present (last 29 games)

 

6.54 Porcedllo (6 GS/ 32 IP)

4.55 C Sale (5 GS /30 IP)

4.21 E Rod (6 GS/ 36 IP)

3.99 Price (6 GS/ 29 IP)

 

If these 4 don't start pitching like they are capable of and were expected to do, then no realistic amount of trades will help us get over the hump.

 

 

There velocity was markedly lower (most notably Sale) when they broke camp. They weren’t prepared for the season to start.

[kenmeister]

I disagree. All of our big 4 starters have been good to excellent for most of the time over the last 2-3 years (or longer). I don't see it as being unreasonable to expect these guys to return to their recent 2-3 year norm over the remainder of the season.

 

There was a sign they were coming around in May, and I'm hopeful the last 29 game sample size is just a slump about to end.

 

(Obviously) I hope you're right. At least most of the bats have returned! But I do think Chris Sale has some sort of injury he's pitching through, and the fact that it didn't get better through last offseason worries me.

[jung]

Pitchers wear out. It just happens. Nobody has ever considered "wear" an injury until wear turns into actual broken and shattered bone or tissue.

 

I don't think pitchers throw as much with their legs as they used to and that is wearing out arms faster especially given how young they start throwing hard now without using their legs.

 

At one point in time, the Mets, THE METS probably had more Starters throwing with their legs than there is today in the entirety of a league of MLB.

 

Ryan was scary to watch throw. The force you could literally see in his pitching motion up from his calves and through that big rear end of his was enough to scare the living daylights out of normal people. You would seriously question the sanity of a batter to stand in against that.

 

How long did Ryan pitch? How hard did he throw?

 

I see very very few pitchers today that throw from their shoelaces. They all sling the baseball, trying to throw 98 and then we all wonder why they break down. Nobody cares whether they throw in a manner that would allow them longevity any longer. They are expendable commodities. Funny because those that are at the top of the league pitching stats (such as they are) are getting paid millions of $$ and they are STILL in the overall treated like expendable commodities.

 

See turning Eovaldi into a $17M Closer with no earthly idea if his arm will stand up to that for a very relevant example.

[moonslav59]

Cycle There velocity was markedly lower (most notably Sale) when they broke camp. They weren’t prepared for the season to start.

 

Now that Sale is warmed up, his velocity is as low as it was last April. He's not back to his velocity norm or even close.

 

He is inconsistent and being pampered.

[oldtimer]

Pitchers wear out. It just happens. Nobody has ever considered "wear" an injury until wear turns into actual broken and shattered bone or tissue.

 

I don't think pitchers throw as much with their legs as they used to and that is wearing out arms faster especially given how young they start throwing hard now without using their legs.

 

At one point in time, the Mets, THE METS probably had more Starters throwing with their legs than there is today in the entirety of a league of MLB.

 

Ryan was scary to watch throw. The force you could literally see in his pitching motion up from his calves and through that big rear end of his was enough to scare the living daylights out of normal people. You would seriously question the sanity of a batter to stand in against that.

 

How long did Ryan pitch? How hard did he throw?

 

I see very very few pitchers today that throw from their shoelaces. They all sling the baseball, trying to throw 98 and then we all wonder why they break down. Nobody cares whether they throw in a manner that would allow them longevity any longer. They are expendable commodities. Funny because those that are at the top of the league pitching stats (such as they are) are getting paid millions of $$ and they are STILL in the overall treated like expendable commodities.

 

See turning Eovaldi into a $17M Closer with no earthly idea if his arm will stand up to that for a very relevant example.

 

Nolan came up and was young and wild and didn't accumulate a lot of innings until he was 21. Then he had a fairly low number of innings for a few years. Perhaps that is the secret of longevity, not pitching many innings until reaching 24 or 25. His wildness along with his high velocity fastball, which was not common in those days, were a powerful combination. I read that he was up around 100 mph and once hit 105 mph. His leg action probably had something to do with the consistent high velocity. I believe he holds the record for no hitters with 7.

[illinoisredsox]

Nolan came up and was young and wild and didn't accumulate a lot of innings until he was 21. Then he had a fairly low number of innings for a few years. Perhaps that is the secret of longevity, not pitching many innings until reaching 24 or 25. His wildness along with his high velocity fastball, which was not common in those days, were a powerful combination. I read that he was up around 100 mph and once hit 105 mph. His leg action probably had something to do with the consistent high velocity. I believe he holds the record for no hitters with 7.

 

Ryan was a freak of nature.

 

Yes, he could throw 100+. WHEN HE WANTED TO. But he didn't try to throw every pitch that hard. That's the difference between today's "pitchers" and the guys from years ago.

 

I recall a game against the Red Sox where he threw something like 230 pitches over 13 innings (in the same game, Luis Tiant was a complete game loser in a 15 inning Angel win).

[FredLynn]

That's nonsense, Fred. I'm as aware of Restgate as anyone here. I used the term a lot. We also used the term Leongate (thanks Slash).

 

I'm here just about every day talking about these things.

 

I'm not disputing the facts that the Red Sox dictated a lightened spring workload for Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi.

 

What I'm questioning is the alleged purpose of that lightened workload and the magnitude of it.

 

It was sarcasm Bellhorn...did you see the emoji at the end of my post?

[a700hitter]

F

Now that Sale is warmed up, his velocity is as low as it was last April. He's not back to his velocity norm or even close.

 

He is inconsistent and being pampered.

He was 89-91 in some of those April games. Still not sure what point that you are trying to make — that the slow ramp up was not a factor and that Sale sucks or is injured? What is your point? Oh, I forgot. Your point is to be contrary and poke holes in my posts. What a pointless existence.

[moonslav59]

Now that the Thornburg issue has been solved, here's a look at our roster construction choices to be made. First, let's look at the rosters (25 and 40 man) before any trade or acquisitions are made.

 

Current 25 Man Roster (Red= has options remaining)

13 Pitchers

SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello & Velazquez

RP: Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Wright, Brewer, Walden

2 Catchers

Vaz & Leon

1 First base

Chavis

2 Second base

Holt & Hernandez

1 Short stop

Bogaerts

2 Third base

Devers & Nunez

1 LF

Benintendi

1 CF

Bradley

1 RF

Betts

1 DH

Martinez

 

60 Day IL:

SP: Eovaldi (due back soon)

2B: Pedroia (may never play again)

 

10 Day IL:

SP/RP: Johnson

1B: Moreland & Pearce

 

Others on the 40 Man Roster that have or may play this season:

SP: Weber, Reyes

RP: Poyner, Lakins, Shawaryn, DHernandez, J Smith, Kelley

1B: Travis, Curletta

IF/OF: Lin

 

We do not really have a 40 man roster crunch, as we'd barely notice losing Curletta, Kelley, D Reyes and maybe even Weber, Shawaryn or Smith.

 

Here's my view of what we do when these players come off the IL:

 

Eovaldi to closer: demote Walden to AAA.

 

Moreland to 1B (Chavis to 2B): trade or DFA Nunez (likely will demote Marco)

 

Johnson to 5th starter: demote Velazquez to AAA.

 

Pearce to 1B/DH: trade or DFA Pearce or Nunez (or demote Hernandez or Taylor/Brewer by going with 12 pitchers)

 

Personally, if everyone was healthy, I'd trade Pearce and Nunez along with whatever cash was needed for basically nothing. I'd keep Marco, Holt, Chavis & Moreland as right-side IF'ers.

 

This would be the "healthy" 25 Man Roster

 

Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, Johnson

Eovaldi, Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Brewer, Taylor

Vazquez & Leon

Moreland & Chavis

Holt & Hernandez

Bogaerts

Devers

Benintendi

Bradley

Betts

Martinez

 

Gone: Pearce & Nunez- maybe keep 1, if we want to go with 12 pitchers (Taylor or Brewer to AAA)

 

Now, to trade possibilities:

 

Most likely, we will trade for a pitcher. It looks like SP'er is the first priority, unless Eovaldi struggles with his health or performance as the closer. Taylor or Brewer would likely be demoted to make room. Without Nunez on the roster, I doubt we'd demote Hernandez.

 

Maybe the best idea would be to try and include Johnson in any trade for a SP'er, since he is out of options and would squeeze the pen out of a better pitcher. If we trade for a RP'er, we may look to trade a current pen piece to make room- not that demoting Taylor or Brewer would be the end of the world.

 

Your thoughts are welcome.

[moonslav59]

FHe was 89-91 in some of those April games. Still not sure what point that you are trying to make — that the slow ramp up was not a factor and that Sale sucks or is injured? What is your point? Oh, I forgot. Your point is to be contrary and poke holes in my posts. What a pointless existence.

 

LOL.

 

Not sure what the point you are making. His velocity is still down, whether I have a reason or not.

 

I said "last April," meaning 2018 April. Sale's 2019 June-July velocity is about the same as (or less than) April 2018- which is significantly lower than his norm. Try to follow along.

 

 

When someone posts something worth poking holes in, I'll do it. Just because I have no better theory doesn't mean I can't point out your falsities or speculative meanderings.

 

The point that Sale is not pitching well over the last 3-5 starts is a separate issue from restgate, except that it makes me wonder why he seems weak now, when all the rest and pampering should have made him stronger at this point in the season.

 

You can cling to his May and claim he is pitching near his norm, but just about everyone else have major concerns about his effectiveness.

 

Here are the charts, again:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=