A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

It is a productive out in any inning.

That run was meaningless. It is why there is defensive indifference late in games, because that runners run would be meaningless ... except for his personal stat sheet.

[moonslav59]

i stated it in earlier posts. Obviously, it didn’t take into account tonight’s performance.

 

This has been his norm, and not just in early April.

 

In 5 of his previous 8 starts before tonight:

 

Runs Allowed/IP

3/5.1

4/6.0

4/6.0

4/5.0

5/6.0

 

(Tonight 5/5.2)

 

This is the norm for

 

Freakin' Chris Sale!

 

[vegasbob]

I like Steve Pearce, sorry he's hurting. He was my vote for MVP in WS last year over Price. Got HUGE hits, to help Sox win it. Games 4+5 7 RBI's, to seal the deal.

In that WS Pearce got 5, 2 out RBI's. That's the Clutch we miss.

 

Keep living in 2018. It will make you feel better

[a700hitter]

This has been his norm, and not just in early April.

 

In 5 of his previous 8 starts before tonight:

 

Runs Allowed/IP

3/5.1

4/6.0

4/6.0

4/5.0

5/6.0

 

(Tonight 5/5.2)

 

This is the norm for

 

Freakin' Chris Sale!

 

May 38 IP 2.82 ERA

June 33 IP 2.73 ERA

1 start thus far in July 5 2/3 IP 7.94 ERA

Career ERA 2.95

 

I will wait to see how the rest of July and the season to play out. Barring arm trouble, I think he will be right around his career norms. And I will keep Beni too.

[OH FOY]

Last year we went 31-7 in games between Toronto and Baltimore, .815 winning % at this point we are 12-7 against them. *Rechecked, were 12-8 against them. Edited July 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Sale with Velasquez as his Catcher this year, 31 innings, 23 ER's, 9 HRS. Sale with Leon, 76 innings, 25 ER's, 7 HRS.

Huge difference in strikeouts too.

76 innings 122 K's with Leon.

31 innings 31 K's with Velasquez.

Tells me big difference how each call a game with Sale.

This has been included with last nights game.

Edited July 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[oldtimer]

Sale with Velasquez as his Catcher this year, 31 innings, 23 ER's, 9 HRS. Sale with Leon, 76 innings, 25 ER's, 7 HRS.

 

So, you would rather have Leon catching? Of course you give up one of our best hitters when you do that. Perhaps Sale is just not performing as well this year.

[devildavid]

That run was meaningless. It is why there is defensive indifference late in games, because that runners run would be meaningless ... except for his personal stat sheet.

 

No runs are meaningless until the last out is made.

[devildavid]

May 38 IP 2.82 ERA

June 33 IP 2.73 ERA

1 start thus far in July 5 2/3 IP 7.94 ERA

Career ERA 2.95

 

I will wait to see how the rest of July and the season to play out. Barring arm trouble, I think he will be right around his career norms. And I will keep Beni too.

 

ERA is a flawed stat and does not reveal that Sale is not pitching to his own standards or that expected by his manager.

[OH FOY]

So, you would rather have Leon catching? Of course you give up one of our best hitters when you do that. Perhaps Sale is just not performing as well this year.

 

Unreal.2.96 era for what 7.00 era , I think I would. Yes, I would rather prevent runs more. Lot of runs.

Wonder why Earl Weaver always said "only thing that matters on the Diamond, is that little lump of dirt in the middle".

Pitching is everything, you must not be that old, if you don't remember the great 78 team and all their hitting. Yanks beat them because of the Pitching, in the long run.

Edited July 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

No runs are meaningless until the last out is made.

 

The play under discussion, the sacrifice fly by the Jays in the 9th, was demonstrably a negative outcome for the Jays.

 

Here's a case where stat geekery actually provides proof. If you look at the game log, you will see that the Red Sox Win Probability went from 99% to 100% after that play.

[devildavid]

The play under discussion, the sacrifice fly by the Jays in the 9th, was demonstrably a negative outcome for the Jays.

 

Here's a case where stat geekery actually provides proof. If you look at the game log, you will see that the Red Sox Win Probability went from 99% to 100% after that play.

 

The game isn't over until the last out is made. There is nothing wrong with congratulating hitters for any type of success in any game situation. That is what started this little discussion. I have no problem with players high fiving over any good results for a hitter or baserunner or run scored. Until the last out is made there is not a 100% chance of winning.

[jung]

Sale with Velasquez as his Catcher this year, 31 innings, 23 ER's, 9 HRS. Sale with Leon, 76 innings, 25 ER's, 7 HRS.

Huge difference in strikeouts too.

76 innings 122 K's with Leon.

31 innings 31 K's with Velasquez.

Tells me big difference how each call a game with Sale.

This has been included with last nights game.

 

Frankly last night was on Sale. I offered last night that Vaz could not possibly call for that many FB's unilaterally. The only possible way for Vaz to call for that many was via dugout discussion with Sale himself. He could not throw his Slider last night and Sale without his Slider is dog-meat. You simply cannot throw that many FB's and telegraph that you are going to continue to do so. Won't work.

 

Once the jig was up, they tried to mix more Sliders which simply created more walks, more hit batsman, more of all the wrong stuff. Then the coup d grace, Cora had to bring Sale back out and try to get him through the 6th inning with the usual 2019 result. By-by ballgame.

[Bellhorn04]

The game isn't over until the last out is made. There is nothing wrong with congratulating hitters for any type of success in any game situation. That is what started this little discussion. I have no problem with players high fiving over any good results for a hitter or baserunner or run scored. Until the last out is made there is not a 100% chance of winning.

 

Let's just be clear that it wasn't a successful play and shouldn't be celebrated.

 

Sometimes in the dugout you see players receive some congratulations because they hit the ball well but it just missed going out or they got robbed by the defense. I think that's more like what you might call support or encouragement which teammates are supposed to provide each other. A 'you'll get 'em next time' type of thing.

[devildavid]

Let's just be clear that it wasn't a successful play and shouldn't be celebrated.

 

Sometimes in the dugout you see players receive some congratulations because they hit the ball well but it just missed going out or they got robbed by the defense. I think that's more like what you might call support or encouragement which teammates are supposed to provide each other. A 'you'll get 'em next time' type of thing.

 

So knocking in a run is not a successful play?

[Bellhorn04]

So knocking in a run is not a successful play?

 

In that situation, knocking in a run at the expense of an out is unsuccessful in terms of the most important thing-the outcome of the game. The Win Probability clearly shows this.

[jacksonianmarch]

When facing a 9th inning deficit, outs are paramount unless you can sacrifice an out for the tying run. If he drove in the tying run with an out, then it’s successful. If you can move the tying run into scoring position with an out, then it’s successful. If it doesn’t do either of those two things, then it’s not a successful out, even if it drives a run home

[notin]

The bottom line is, dgalehouse was questioning why the high fives after a ninth inning out. I think the answer is simple: they’re having fun.

 

It’s a game. If you played baseball for a career, win or lose, wouldn’t you be ecstatic about your job? And be thrilled to play every day?

[illinoisredsox]

The bottom line is, dgalehouse was questioning why the high fives after a ninth inning out. I think the answer is simple: they’re having fun.

 

It’s a game. If you played baseball for a career, win or lose, wouldn’t you be ecstatic about your job? And be thrilled to play every day?

 

 

The reality is the games are the easy part. It’s the other less glamorous 5-6 hours every day that the fans don’t think about. Physical therapy, film study, working on technique, extra fielding practice to improve. Travel. For the borderline player, always looking over your shoulder for the next phenom. Not to mention the constant media scrutiny on virtually everything you do.

 

Just like any job, it’s a grind. A well paid grind, but still a grind.

[jacksonianmarch]

The reality is the games are the easy part. It’s the other less glamorous 5-6 hours every day that the fans don’t think about. Physical therapy, film study, working on technique, extra fielding practice to improve. Travel. For the borderline player, always looking over your shoulder for the next phenom. Not to mention the constant media scrutiny on virtually everything you do.

 

Just like any job, it’s a grind. A well paid grind, but still a grind.

 

Most professional baseball teams have a 3 hour rule, meaning you arrive 3 hours before game time. Most of the great ones arrive 4 or 5 hours early and do their study while they're getting their bodies worked on

[Kimmi]

So, you would rather have Leon catching? Of course you give up one of our best hitters when you do that. Perhaps Sale is just not performing as well this year.

 

You hate to give up a much better bat to have Leon catching, but the difference in performance between Sale pitching to Leon versus Sale pitching to Vazquez is pretty significant. Same with Porcello.

 

The question becomes whether the team is better off with Vaz's offense or Leon's defense. I would go with the latter.

 

That said, Vazquez is not to be blamed for Sale's performances. Sale, being the ace that he supposedly is, should be able to pitch well to any catcher. It's not like Vaz is a defensive slouch.

[Kimmi]

The play under discussion, the sacrifice fly by the Jays in the 9th, was demonstrably a negative outcome for the Jays.

 

Here's a case where stat geekery actually provides proof. If you look at the game log, you will see that the Red Sox Win Probability went from 99% to 100% after that play.

 

^^Stat geek.

[Kimmi]

The game isn't over until the last out is made. There is nothing wrong with congratulating hitters for any type of success in any game situation. That is what started this little discussion. I have no problem with players high fiving over any good results for a hitter or baserunner or run scored. Until the last out is made there is not a 100% chance of winning.

 

I agree with you on the high fiving. There is nothing wrong with showing your teammates a little support and encouragement.

[moonslav59]

You hate to give up a much better bat to have Leon catching, but the difference in performance between Sale pitching to Leon versus Sale pitching to Vazquez is pretty significant. Same with Porcello.

 

The question becomes whether the team is better off with Vaz's offense or Leon's defense. I would go with the latter.

 

That said, Vazquez is not to be blamed for Sale's performances. Sale, being the ace that he supposedly is, should be able to pitch well to any catcher. It's not like Vaz is a defensive slouch.

 

The disparity between Leon and Vaz is actually greater with Price than Porcello, but for some reason, Vaz has become Price's only catcher. It's working, this year, so I'm not complaining.

 

Career CERA:

 

Sale

2.53 Leon

4.61 Vaz

(Vaz would have to go 3 for 4 every game to make up for 2+ runs)

 

Price

2.75 Leon (0.00 in 2019 but only 6 IP)

4.16 Vaz (3.59 in 2019- 73 IP)

5.73 Swihart

 

Porcello

4.06 Leon

4.70 Vaz

4.93 Swihart

 

ERod

4.15 Leon

4.28 Vaz

4.44 Swihart

 

Some differentials are wider than others, but all show Leon gets better results than Vaz.

 

An ERA differential of 1-2 runs would take an enormous offensive differential to outweigh that many runs per game. Vaz is doing great on offense, but I doubt a .250-.300 OPS differential equates to 1-2 runs per game.

 

 

Edited July 4, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Aces get preference. The Braves had Maddux throw only to Eddy Perez when Javy Lopez was hitting the piss out of the ball. Pettitte threw to Girardi over Posada early on. If Sale goes into Cora's office and says, Leon is my catcher, then Leon will be catching. As a former pitcher (current if you consider the old man league I am in), confidence in the catcher can be the difference between a hanger and a K, a ball or a strike. I have played with guys who were unbelievable behind the dish and guys who were fat slobs. The confidence in knowing you can bounce a ball and your catcher has your back is very, very empowering. It allows you not to have to feel like you need to be perfect. I also have to wonder if some of it is game calling. Sale notoriously does not shake off his catcher. He doesn't call the game, the catcher does. Leon likely does a better job.

[moonslav59]

Aces get preference. The Braves had Maddux throw only to Eddy Perez when Javy Lopez was hitting the piss out of the ball. Pettitte threw to Girardi over Posada early on. If Sale goes into Cora's office and says, Leon is my catcher, then Leon will be catching. As a former pitcher (current if you consider the old man league I am in), confidence in the catcher can be the difference between a hanger and a K, a ball or a strike. I have played with guys who were unbelievable behind the dish and guys who were fat slobs. The confidence in knowing you can bounce a ball and your catcher has your back is very, very empowering. It allows you not to have to feel like you need to be perfect. I also have to wonder if some of it is game calling. Sale notoriously does not shake off his catcher. He doesn't call the game, the catcher does. Leon likely does a better job.

 

Excellent post. Makin' it real.

 

I appreciate it.

[Bellhorn04]

I predict Leon will catch Sale next time out.

[moonslav59]

I predict Leon will catch Sale next time out.

 

...as he should every game he is able to do it.

[dgalehouse]

If that's what it takes to make Sale succeed , then let Leon catch him . Every catcher needs a day off anyway . But that's it . Just Sale . Vasquez has to catch the others . You don't want to lose his offense too often . And the DH spot is pretty much taken .

[Slasher9]

I predict Leon will catch Sale next time out.

 

The fact that he didn’t in yesterday’s game certainly qualifies as WTF...