A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

You constantly conflate the fact that I think our pen has done better than our starters, so far this year with the idea that I think they will continue to do better or have done better recently. (By the way, using you twisted logic, our pen has done better over twice as long of a sample size than our starters.)

 

I have done no such thing. You have conflated the starter/reliever issue. Until last night, we were just debating that merits of the starters performance and how to measure it. We went in circles on that argument ad nauseam. Then last night you tell me that relievers have been part of the argument and the merits of the performance of relievers versus starters has been the topic of our debate. It has not. Any conflation of those topics has been in your head. I am sorry that you have done so much research on whatever topic you thought we had been discussing. I thought those reliever numbers were unrelated to our discussion. My position on the performance of Price, Sale and ERod is pretty clear and so is yours. I have a theory that the lack of spring training ruined the first month of the season for them. You disagree, but have offered no explanation for their performance other than randomness. Maybe I have that last part wrong and you have no theory at all and this is all about poking holes in my theory as you have said earlier. If so, you haven’t moved the needle a hair in convincing me, and I know that it irks you to no end that you have not, but at this point you are engaged in an obsession. For your own good, I will stop engaging you on this topic as you clearly don’t know when to stop.

[harmony]

Last 3 starts Rick P. ERA is 12.75

Red Sox have now allowed 6 runs or more in 8 straight games. Tied for the second longest streak in a single season in team history.

Longest streak -1976 - 9 games.

There have been 202 combined runs scored in last 14 Sox games.

Sox- 103

Opp- 99

The woeful Seattle Mariners have surrendered six or fewer runs in their last 12 games after giving up 10 or more runs in 17 earlier games.

[moonslav59]

Your scoring system is a valiant effort, but probably needs a tweak or two.

 

For one thing counting Velazquez as a starter there might be wrong. That was arguably a bullpen game.

 

The other question that arises is how what results would this system produce if you applied it to other teams?

 

My sense is that bullpens have a fairly large built-in advantage. The starter is one guy, the bullpen is a team of 7-8 guys.

 

Yes, and my simplified "non saber" methodology also leaves out games where a RP enter the game with bases loaded, allows a triple, and no runs are charged to him. There was only so much analysis I was going to do for each and every game one-by-one, but I tried.

 

My point was not to show that our pen was great, but there was a time it was doing well enough that I called it a "strength" not a weakness, but that was only in the sense of what they had done up to a specific point in the season- not what I felt they were as trade value or in any sense of what I expected going forward. There hasn't been a day since the end of last season that I haven't felt our pen was the area of greatest need- not even a close second place area.

 

On the Velazquez thing. I think our team is 10-8 in starts by our 5 slot, so my system may have given some wins to the "starter" in a pen game, when if it was truly a "pen game." should have been given to the pen. Either way, the +2, +1... system should flush that out to some extent.

 

The main reason I did this analysis was to show that although our pen had blown way too many saves, they have not been the main reason for our poor record. That's a totally separate issue from what is our weakest area going forward. I found we had two blown saves in one game, so we were double counting as 2 losses not one. I found that we ended up winning some games where a blown save was made further lessening losses that could be blamed on the pen. I found some games where a starter let up 6 runs in 2 IP and the pen let up 1-2 runs in 7 IP, but got a blown save and were "blamed for a loss" that was clearly on the starter.

 

No system of analysis is perfect, and I invited anyone to argue the merits of my system of assigning wins or losses or my point system, or to argue my scoring on any particular game- may one where the pen allowed 3 IR's to score but got credited with a +2.

 

Yes, the pen does have a sort of built in advantage, but starters often got pluses by pitching very few innings or credit for wins for just doing less lousy than the pen.

 

To me, the differential between the pen and the rotation is so great in both or my methods, that I seriously doubt any closer analysis would flip enough grades to change the outcome.

 

Our starters have been more responsible for our losses than the pen, to date.

 

Our pen has been more responsible for our wins than the starters, to date.

 

I'm fairly certain, through game-by-game analysis this is true. I welcome a debate on any grade or W-L assignment I made. Until someone does that or provides a similar or better game by game analysis that shows otherwise, I'm sticking to my position.

 

I also think our pen has been overused, and not just with "pen games" despite having 8 pen arms all year- something we rarely have done in the past. DD & Cora have tried a quantity over quality approach, something I have never been for- either in the pen or the rotation.

 

Due to the last few weeks, I no longer view the totality of our pen's season as a strength. All pens are expected to have more good games than bad. They pitch fewer innings. They can have a 5.00 ERA but pitch 7 scoreless inning for every 2 innings letting up 5 runs combined. That would show a 7-2 success rate. I get that.

 

However, our starters, as a whole, and not just Porcello and the 5 slot, have done poorly this year. Excluding April due to "restgate"is a cop out and contrived to support a position that has very little merit. The fact is our starters have done worse than our pen, but that has not changed my position that our pen needs outside help- big time.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Do you even read the crap you post? They’re third in baseball in plus minus.

 

That wasn't the point. Despite their impressive run differential, they still have 4 more wins than they should based on Pythagorean.

 

That was the point made.

[moonslav59]

I have done no such thing. You have conflated the starter/reliever issue. Until last night, we were just debating that merits of the starters performance and how to measure it. We went in circles on that argument ad nauseam. Then last night you tell me that relievers have been part of the argument and the merits of the performance of relievers versus starters has been the topic of our debate. It has not. Any conflation of those topics has been in your head. I am sorry that you have done so much research on whatever topic you thought we had been discussing. I thought those reliever numbers were unrelated to our discussion. My position on the performance of Price, Sale and ERod is pretty clear and so is yours. I have a theory that the lack of spring training ruined the first month of the season for them. You disagree, but have offered no explanation for their performance other than randomness. Maybe I have that last part wrong and you have no theory at all and this is all about poking holes in my theory as you have said earlier. If so, you haven’t moved the needle a hair in convincing me, and I know that it irks you to no end that you have not, but at this point you are engaged in an obsession. For your own good, I will stop engaging you on this topic as you clearly don’t know when to stop.

 

You keep going, too.

 

Explain why long after restgate, our starters have pretty much sucked or been worse than the norm over the last 5 weeks- the same time length as March-April?

 

You keep wanting to claim that just because a great May 1st to May 31st skews the May 1st to present numbers to barely show our starters are close to but still worse than their previous 3 year norms shows our starters have been doing fine. Throw out the April numbers. Throw out the June 1st to present numbers, and our starters are fine because you choose to not count April and May evens out June, despite evidence that shows 2 starters actually pitched more in ST'ing than last year and the others pitched 4-8 inning less.

 

Stop saying I am the one bringing up the pen. You've been roasting them while praising our struggling starters all along.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

That wasn't the point. Despite their impressive run differential, they still have 4 more wins than they should based on Pythagorean.

 

That was the point made.

 

4 games isn’t a big difference, A. Also, teams with great closers/setup men typically outperform their Pythag. You hold and close the leads you have

[jacksonianmarch]

You keep going, too.

 

Explain why long after restgate, our starters have pretty much sucked or been worse than the norm over the last 5 weeks- the same time length as March-April?

 

You keep wanting to claim that just because a great May 1st to May 31st skews the May 1st to present numbers to barely show our starters are close to but still worse than their previous 3 year norms shows our starters have been doing fine. Throw out the April numbers. Throw out the June 1st to present numbers, and our starters are fine because you choose to not count April and May evens out June, despite evidence that shows 2 starters actually pitched more in ST'ing than last year and the others pitched 4-8 inning less.

 

Stop saying I am the one bringing up the pen. You've been roasting them while praising our struggling starters all along.

 

 

Just punch each other and grab a beer

[moonslav59]

A Tale of 3 Starters:

 

GS'd/ERA

First 30 games (ST'ing IP 2019 v 2018)

6 ERod 6.16 (15.0- 0.0)

6 Porcello 5.52 (12.0- 16.0)

6 C Sale 6.30 (9.0- 14.2)

5 Price 3.60 (6.2- 12.0)

4 Eovaldi 6.00 (7.0- 16.s w TBR)

3 Velazquez 3.86 (12.0- 18.2)

5.39 team

Even if you throw out ERod, our top 4 starters pitched about 6 ST'ing IP less on average than 2018. It's absurd to claim it takes 5-6 starts to make up for "restgate".

 

Second 30 games

6 ERod 3.79

6 Porcello 4.14

6 C Sale 2.82

5 Price 1.88

4 Velazquez 8.71

2 R Weber 7.20

1 J Smith 10.80

4.03 Team

This is the only period our starters have done well- the top 4 exceptionally well.

 

Last 28 games:

6 ERod 4.21

6 Porcello 6.54

6 C Sale 3.49

5 Price 4.44

2 Johnson 1.13

1 Velazquez 11.57

1 DHern 9.00

1 J Smith 9.00

1 R Weber 13.50

4.75 Team

Nobody here, except for Johnson (2 GS'd) and maybe ERod are close to their recent 3 year norms.

 

Pen

IP ERA/ WHIP

 

First 30: 111 IP: 4.47/ 1.36

2nd 30: 115 IP: 3.69/ 1.19

Last 28: 122 IP: 5.04/ 1.57

 

Edited July 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

4 games isn’t a big difference, A. Also, teams with great closers/setup men typically outperform their Pythag. You hold and close the leads you have

 

Yes, but his point was about Pythag. not run differential.

[a700hitter]

Stop saying I am the one bringing up the pen. You've been roasting them while praising our struggling starters all along.

 

Relievers have not been part of our debate on the starters. My comments roasting the relievers have not been in the context of that conversation and are completely unrelated. You have conflated the two issues, not me.

[notin]

Yes, but his point was about Pythag. not run differential.

 

Pythagorean for baseball is based on the exact same criteria as run differential...

[moonslav59]

Relievers have not been part of our debate on the starters. My comments roasting the relievers have not been in the context of that conversation and are completely unrelated. You have conflated the two issues, not me.

 

You've been praising the starters despite bad numbers over their last 5 starts and bashing the pen non stop.

 

I've tried to show our starters are more to blame for our predicament than the pen.

 

You twist this to imply I think our pen is good, we need SP'ing not pen acquisitions and because I have no excuse for why this is the case (a totally different debate), my points are unfounded.

[moonslav59]

Pythagorean for baseball is based on the exact same criteria as run differential...

 

Yes, and the Yankee run differential does not indicate they should have 4 more wins than they do. That was the poster's point, and he was right.

 

Jacko is correct about having a lights out pen, but that is not really the issue. They had a great pen last year, too and had just 1 more win than "expected" over 162 games.

[notin]

Yes, and the Yankee run differential does not indicate they should have 4 more wins than they do. That was the poster's point, and he was right.

 

Jacko is correct about having a lights out pen, but that is not really the issue. They had a great pen last year, too and had just 1 more win than "expected" over 162 games.

 

A 4 game overage halfway they the season isn’t uncommon. It might erase itself over the next half...

[a700hitter]

You've been praising the starters despite bad numbers over their last 5 starts and bashing the pen non stop.

 

I've tried to show our starters are more to blame for our predicament than the pen.

 

You twist this to imply I think our pen is good, we need SP'ing not pen acquisitions and because I have no excuse for why this is the case (a totally different debate), my points are unfounded.

I haven't been praising our starters. I have simply said that the top 3 are performing to expectations after April and that I expect that to continue. That's not praise. I am just saying that they are not the issue on the team that needs to be addressed going forward. Going forward, Porcello has to fix himself. And we need a #5 if Eovaldi goes to the pen. That is not heaping praise on our starters. It is simply saying that we are good with 3 of them.

 

As far as the pen goes, since you have made it part of our discussion, they suck. I don't care what kind of numbers you come up with. Other than Barnes and Workman, the others are marginal major leaguers, and I would have no problem dumping anyone of them.

Edited July 7, 2019 by a700hitter

[dgalehouse]

Who cares about some ancient Greek jabroni. Pythagaras wouldn't know a slider from a right angle if it hit him in the ribs . One thing is clear . The Detroit Tigers are one sorry excuse for a major league team . An embarrassment.

[a700hitter]

Who cares about some ancient Greek jabroni. Pythagaras wouldn't know a slider from a right angle if it hit him in the ribs . One thing is clear . The Detroit Tigers are one sorry excuse for a major league team . An embarrassment.

And we have to sit on the edge of our seats and bite our nails in the late innings against the terrible Tigers.

[moonslav59]

I haven't been praising our starters. I have simply said that the top 3 are performing to expectations after April and that I expect that to continue. That's not praise. I am just saying that they are not the issue on the team that needs to be addressed going forward. Going forward, Porcello has to fix himself. And we need a #5 if Eovaldi goes to the pen. That is not heaping praise on our starters. It is simply saying that we are good with 3 of them.

 

As far as the pen goes, since you have made it part of our discussion, they suck. I don't care what kind of numbers you come up with. Other than Barnes and Workman, the others are marginal major leaguers, and I would have no problem dumping anyone of them.

 

I sure hope our big 4 don't continue like the last 28 games:

6GS ERod 4.21

6GS Porcello 6.54

6GS C Sale 3.49

5GS Price 4.44

 

I'm pretty confident our 4 starters will be fine going forward, but I realize they have to do better than they have been. While a great May was fine and dandy, the numbers after May should be concerning to us all.

 

As for the pen, I'm fine with Workman, Barnes, Brasier and Hembree keeping key roles on the team- just not as the closer. We both agree we need pen help. The debate was about how bad our starters have been and how bad our pen has been up to now, in various time sample sizes that we disagree over the timing and importance of our sample sizes chosen.

 

My position has been that until recently, our pen has not been as bad as the blown saves and site bashing has made them out to be, and that the starters have not gotten the same criticism as the pen has gotten. The pen has pitched many masterful games- sometimes for more than 7 or 9 innings. They have kept us in many games that the starters put us in a massive hole. They have also blown many games- some of which the starters allowed 5 or more runs in short innings before the blown save, but mostly we just hear about the pen losing games for us.

 

No doubt, the pen has lost more games for us that most teams, but they've also been put in a hole and used more often than most contending teams.

 

My expectations for this pen were not high before the year started. My hope was they could do alright until summer trades boosted them to respectability. Until recently, the pen had done better than I expected, which isn't the same as saying they did great or even good. They did a decent job for a while, considering their make-up.

 

Going forward, we need to trade for a decent closer and probably a good set-up man, too.

 

Solve the roster crunch issue by DFA'ing Thornburg and trading out-of-options Johnson. Demote Walden and maybe Velazquez, leaving this...

 

_______ (Closer to be acquired)

Workman

_______ (Set up to be acquired)

Hembree

Barnes

Brasier

Wright

Brewer

 

5th starter: Velazquez or Johnson

 

When and if Eovaldi returns, we'll have to deal with who gets sent down or traded (Velazquez or Brewer?), of we could just try and acquire a solid ace and let the set-up men battle for the 8th inning role.

 

[a700hitter]

I sure hope our big 4 don't continue like the last 28 games

You are still expanding the parameters of the discussion that I have been having. It doesn’t include the bullpen and it only includes the top 3, not the top 4. Porcello is a mess, and I have said so.

[Nick]

And we have to sit on the edge of our seats and bite our nails in the late innings against the terrible Tigers.

 

 

All six runs were allowed by our $22M starter, Rick Porcello.

[a700hitter]

All six runs were allowed by our $22M starter, Rick Porcello.

He’s been a disaster. He looks like 2015 Porcello.

[a700hitter]

All six runs were allowed by our $22M starter, Rick Porcello.

So, you thought the game was well in hand in the late innings, not nervous at all?

[Nick]

So, you thought the game was well in hand in the late innings, not nervous at all?

 

 

Oh, I was nervous. I'm never comfortable with our pen. I just wanted to make a point that we should had a bigger lead. I think we were one walk away from tying run coming up to the plate. All I could think was all the f***ing rain delays over the past two days and here we had chance to go extra innings.

 

We're good.

[moonslav59]

You are still expanding the parameters of the discussion that I have been having. It doesn’t include the bullpen and it only includes the top 3, not the top 4. Porcello is a mess, and I have said so.

 

Porcello's mess is just 3 games deep. He was better than norm in is previous 8-12 starts. Bad for smaller sample size than the other 3. Better for larger sample size prior than others. His last 3 starts were so horrendous that it skews his May 1st to present numbers.

 

I can't make anyone else feel concern or worry over these numbers, but I can say I don't think they are pitching to "norms", of late.

 

6GS ERod 4.21 (4.21 career/ 4.01 previous 2 years)

6GS C Sale 3.49 (2.97 career/ 2.85 previous 3 years/ 2.56 2 yrs)

5GS Price 4.44 (3.26 career/ 3.74 previous 3 seasons)

 

5-6 starts is a pretty long time. Plus, ERod actually has a worse 2019 ERA than his previous 6 starts, and he was the only one who pitched a normal amount of ST'ing innings this year.

 

Some cherry-picked numbers

 

ERod since May 15th: 4.73 in 10 starts.

 

CSale since June 22nd: 7.71 in 2 starts. (5.96 last 4 starts/ 3.86 since May 15th- 9 GS)

 

Price since June 9th: 5.40 (4.11 last 6 starts)

 

Porcello's numbers are concerning but mostly just his last 3 starts:

 

11 GS'd before last 3 GS'd: 3.27 ERA (April 30-June 22)

Last 3 GS'd: 12.75 ERA

 

To me, if you are willing to discount smaller and more recent sample sizes in favor of a time frame from around May 1st (4/30 for Porcello), then Porcello should be less of a concern, right?

 

His 4.70 ERA since 4/30 is almost totally skewed by just his last 3 starts, while ERod's last 10, Prices last 6 and Sale's last 9 seem less concerning to you.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

So, you thought the game was well in hand in the late innings, not nervous at all?

 

Prime example of how you twist a person's statement.

 

He never came close to even implying what you just said.

 

He merely pointed out the true source of the situation of worry.

[moonslav59]

Oh, I was nervous. I'm never comfortable with our pen. I just wanted to make a point that we should had a bigger lead. I think we were one walk away from tying run coming up to the plate. All I could think was all the f***ing rain delays over the past two days and here we had chance to go extra innings.

 

We're good.

 

...and if the pen did allow 5 ERs to score as compared to the 6 by Porcello, it would have been the pen's fault, right?

 

LOL.

[a700hitter]

Prime example of how you twist a person's statement.

 

He never came close to even implying what you just said.

 

He merely pointed out the true source of the situation of worry.

No twisting. I simply asked him a question. You can see the question mark. I would think he was nervous over the last 3 innings.

[a700hitter]

Oh, I was nervous. I'm never comfortable with our pen. I just wanted to make a point that we should had a bigger lead. I think we were one walk away from tying run coming up to the plate. All I could think was all the f***ing rain delays over the past two days and here we had chance to go extra innings.

 

We're good.

Yep, you are right about that. Luckily, Cora didn’t employ Farrell’s 7 run rule.

[moonslav59]

No twisting. I simply asked him a question. You can see the question mark. I would think he was nervous over the last 3 innings.

 

You crack me up!

[a700hitter]

You crack me up!

Yeah, and I log on here to enjoy your sense of humor.