The Pen

[BillyWilliams]

Is that as long as it takes to prove or disprove this theory? I thought it was the rest of the damn century.

 

LOL, I was just teasing about how the shift in power occurred this time last century.

[kenmeister]

Some appreciate the history of the game.

 

Others think it was invented in 2004..........

 

2003 with David Ortiz's arrival

[Kimmi]

There is a certain superior snobbism that those who are devoted to analytics / sabermetrics display to those who don't quite buy into the whole thing . You will get their condescending attitude that you must believe the earth is flat and so forth . This applies to other subjects as well , but I'm not going there . In my view , skepticism is not something to mock . And always going along with the latest trend does not make one any smarter than the skeptic .

 

From where I stand, it is completely the other way around.

[Kimmi]

remind me what you said last year? and the year before that? and 3 years ago?

 

The more Jacko goes on about how great the Yankees are, the better Red Sox fans should feel.

 

We got this in the bag.

[FredLynn]

The more Jacko goes on about how great the Yankees are, the better Red Sox fans should feel.

 

We got this in the bag.

 

I have no idea what you are talking about. Jacko nailed it on the head before last season began.................................oh wait.

[Bellhorn04]

Jacko refers to our bullpen as an "abject dumpster fire". It wasn't enough to just call it a "dumpster fire", he had to ramp it up even further with the "abject" adjective.

[moonslav59]

He keeps harping on our least strong area. It's his only hope.

 

Bull pen sucks.

 

Sale is toast.

 

Kimbrel was our MVP- we'll be crap without him.

 

Eovaldi will be as crappy as when he was a Yankee.

 

Betts & JD could never come near their 2018 numbers again.

 

No Sox player, even the pre-prime players can get better.

 

[notin]

He keeps harping on our least strong area. It's his only hope.

 

Bull pen sucks.

 

Sale is toast.

 

Kimbrel was our MVP- we'll be crap without him.

 

Eovaldi will be as crappy as when he was a Yankee.

 

Betts & JD could never come near their 2018 numbers again.

 

No Sox player, even the pre-prime players can get better.

 

 

 

And no one from the Sox farm system is capable of playing Division 3 high school baseball, let alone in the AL East...

[notin]

You do understand that the yanks got better and the Sox have gotten worse. Your team will be in the wild card game in 2019

 

 

So the AL East has already been clinched? Guess I can’t blame DD for not wasting money on the bullpen chasing an unwinnable division...

[notin]

Jacko refers to our bullpen as an "abject dumpster fire". It wasn't enough to just call it a "dumpster fire", he had to ramp it up even further with the "abject" adjective.

 

 

He doesn’t want anyone to confuse it with a partial dumpster fire. Those can be useful to hobos sometimes...

[notin]

From where I stand, it is completely the other way around.

 

 

I have to agree.

 

WAR is the subject of far more bad puns (The “what is it good for?” line got old years ago.) and baseless attacks than BA and ERA and RBIs old-style baseball card stats. Don’t get me wrong; those stats do get attacked. Just typically with logic about their flaws as opposed to complaints about their existence.

 

Although I was listening to MLB Radio the other day, and a fan called up to bash Harper with “he’s only hit 40 HRsce and only got 100 RBIs once” and the host shot back with “when you get your head out of 1988.” But then sports radio hosts are not always known for their tolerance...

[jacksonianmarch]

He doesn’t want anyone to confuse it with a partial dumpster fire. Those can be useful to hobos sometimes...

 

It is an abject dumpster fire. You take a pen that lacks depth and remove your best postseason performer and a likely (if he has another 3-4 good years) future HOF level closer and replace them with absolutely nothing and you have a dumpster fire. Your offense will score. Your rotation (barring injury) will hand over a lot of leads. Your pen will be the subject of hand wringing and gnashing of teeth this summer and I’m gonna love it

[moonslav59]

It is an abject dumpster fire. You take a pen that lacks depth and remove your best postseason performer and a likely (if he has another 3-4 good years) future HOF level closer and replace them with absolutely nothing and you have a dumpster fire. Your offense will score. Your rotation (barring injury) will hand over a lot of leads. Your pen will be the subject of hand wringing and gnashing of teeth this summer and I’m gonna love it

 

How was a pen with no depth able to overcome Kelly's mid season meltdown, Kimbrel's post season meltdown and the injuries to Wright, Workman, Smith and Thornburg?

 

I'm sorry, but you are dead wrong about our pen depth. The depth was what saved us.

 

Yes, we lost Kimbrel, but losing Kelly is not as big as you make it out to be. There were many who felt Kelly shouldn't even have been on the playoff rosters.

 

We have Brasier for a full season. That alone could make up for Kelly's loss.

 

Yes, Thornburg is huge question mark, but with Eovaldi in the rotation, we can see Johnson, Velazquez and a full season from Workman, Wright or Poyner seeing more time in the pen.

 

Our pen weakness right now is NOT depth or quantity: it is quality at the most important slots- closer and number 1 set-up man, although Barnes and Brasier offer significant hope there.

 

If anything, we have too many pitchers vying for the 7 pen slots with some of the wrong ones being out of options.

 

Barnes

Brasier

Wright

Thornburg

Hembree

Workman

 

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

E Ramirez

C Shepherd

Josh Smith

 

Poyner

Lakins

Brewer

Walden

Z Putman

 

Feltman (after July/Aug?)

 

 

[mvp 78]

It is an abject dumpster fire. You take a pen that lacks depth and remove your best postseason performer and a likely (if he has another 3-4 good years) future HOF level closer and replace them with absolutely nothing and you have a dumpster fire. Your offense will score. Your rotation (barring injury) will hand over a lot of leads. Your pen will be the subject of hand wringing and gnashing of teeth this summer and I’m gonna love it

 

Abject dumpster fire because Joe Kelly is gone. Um, ok... He wasn't very good for long stretches over the past few years. Losing him is not a big deal. My guess is that if they retained Kelly and let Kimbrel go that you'd still be calling it an abject dumpster fire.

 

It was a top 10 bullpen last year. It'll still be top 15 even with the loss of Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Abject dumpster fire because Joe Kelly is gone. Um, ok... He wasn't very good for long stretches over the past few years. Losing him is not a big deal. My guess is that if they retained Kelly and let Kimbrel go that you'd still be calling it an abject dumpster fire.

 

It was a top 10 bullpen last year. It'll still be top 15 even with the loss of Kimbrel.

 

He keeps confusing weakest area to a weak area.

 

Average in one area is not a death knell.

[notin]

He keeps confusing weakest area to a weak area.

 

Average in one area is not a death knell.

 

 

But... but... but... this is the AL EAST!!!!

[notin]

Abject dumpster fire because Joe Kelly is gone. Um, ok... He wasn't very good for long stretches over the past few years. Losing him is not a big deal. My guess is that if they retained Kelly and let Kimbrel go that you'd still be calling it an abject dumpster fire.

 

It was a top 10 bullpen last year. It'll still be top 15 even with the loss of Kimbrel.

 

 

Kimbrel came out of the gates on absolute fire. I think he went most or all of April before a right-handed hitter even reached base against him.

 

But he cooled off like Hawaiian lava and became a source of hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing himself after the All Star break...

[TylerD]

Kimbrel came out of the gates on absolute fire. I think he went most or all of April before a right-handed hitter even reached base against him.

 

But he cooled off like Hawaiian lava and became a source of hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing himself after the All Star break...

 

That's the problem with Kimbrel...... When he is on.... he's very good (much like he was in the World Series) but when he is off.... it's ugly like he was in the Yankees and Astros series. It happens to all pitchers. I know I can be hard on him but it does happen to the best. With that said I still think Kimbrel's agent is asking too much for him but meh.

[moonslav59]

But... but... but... this is the AL EAST!!!!

 

Yes, so how can the Yanks possibly win with a below average 1Bman? A position the rest of the league gets big offense from?

 

If Sale is toast due to his health issues at the end of 2018, then the Yankee SS position is toast, too. How can you win the AL East with the 1B and SS positions being abject failures?

[moonslav59]

Although the great start to 2018, and another great run in May to early June, the Sox still went 40-24 in it's last 64 games.

 

This happened despite Sale only starting 7 games and ERod 4. This happened despite Kimbrel's WHIP going from 0.885 to 1.200 in the last 64 games (not counting his horrendous playoff WHIP).

 

This team showed the ability to play .625 ball with a mediocre Kimbrel and basically no Sale or ERod.

Edited February 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Although the great start to 2018, and another great run in May to early June, the Sox still went 40-24 in it's last 64 games.

 

This happened despite Sale only starting 7 games and ERod 4. This happened despite Kimbrel's WHIP going from 0.885 to 1.200 in the last 64 games (not counting his horrendous playoff WHIP).

 

This team showed the ability to play .625 ball with a mediocre Kimbrel and basically no Sale or ERod.

 

 

That was all Joe Kelly, obviously...

[mvp 78]

Kimbrel came out of the gates on absolute fire. I think he went most or all of April before a right-handed hitter even reached base against him.

 

But he cooled off like Hawaiian lava and became a source of hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing himself after the All Star break...

 

Both guys are replaceable. It just remains to be seen if the Sox have a replacement. I'm not worried about Joe Kelly leaving. I think someone like Travis Lakins could match what Kelly did last regular season. I still think they should reach out to Kimbrel and bring him back on a short deal.

[moonslav59]

Although the great start to 2018, and another great run in May to early June, the Sox still went 40-24 in it's last 64 games.

 

This happened despite Sale only starting 7 games and ERod 4. This happened despite Kimbrel's WHIP going from 0.885 to 1.200 in the last 64 games (not counting his horrendous playoff WHIP).

 

This team showed the ability to play .625 ball with a mediocre Kimbrel and basically no Sale or ERod.

 

Plus, these guys only started these many games out of the last 64:

 

0 Pedey

12 Vaz

28 Devers

[BillyWilliams]

Plus, these guys only started these many games out of the last 64:

 

0 Pedey

12 Vaz

28 Devers

 

What was devers' and vaz's replacements' numbers over their respective seasons numbers?

[moonslav59]

What was devers' and vaz's replacements' numbers over their respective seasons numbers?

 

You are assuming they will repeat their 2018 numbers in 2019. This is not a valid way to project future output, but if you want to go by that....

 

.731 Devers

.677 Nunez

 

.540 Vaz

.511 Leon

 

While the gain might look slight here, I don't think I'm being a homer to believe they can at least give us their career norms (or better) in 2019:

 

.760 Devers

 

.632 Vaz

 

Both would be a significant improvement over their 2018 replacements' numbers.

[BillyWilliams]

You are assuming they will repeat their 2018 numbers in 2019. This is not a valid way to project future output, but if you want to go by that....

 

.731 Devers

.677 Nunez

 

.540 Vaz

.511 Leon

 

While the gain might look slight here, I don't think I'm being a homer to believe they can at least give us their career norms (or better) in 2019:

 

.760 Devers

 

.632 Vaz

 

Both would be a significant improvement over their 2018 replacements' numbers.

 

But both of their "career norms" are relatively small sample sizes, no?

[moonslav59]

But both of their "career norms" are relatively small sample sizes, no?

 

Yes, as is the case for most younger players moving towards prime. (999 PAs by Vaz and 672 by Devers)

 

If you really are expecting .731 from Devers and .540 from Vaz, then I can't make any more points, but even that would be better than what their replacements gave us last year.

 

I'm thinking .800 from Devers and .670 from Vaz is not a stretch.

 

Steamer projects:

 

.805 Devers (.805 THE BAT and .787 ATC)

 

.672 Vaz (.659 THE BAT & .637 ATC)

 

These numbers blow Nunez, Leon and Swihart out of the water.

 

[FredLynn]

Yes, as is the case for most younger players moving towards prime. (999 PAs by Vaz and 672 by Devers)

 

If you really are expecting .731 from Devers and .540 from Vaz, then I can't make any more points, but even that would be better than what their replacements gave us last year.

 

I'm thinking .800 from Devers and .670 from Vaz is not a stretch.

 

Steamer projects:

 

.805 Devers (.805 THE BAT and .787 ATC)

 

.672 Vaz (.659 THE BAT & .637 ATC)

 

These numbers blow Nunez, Leon and Swihart out of the water.

 

 

Steamer projects Devers to hit >.800 OPS? Seriously? I don't see it...not until he learns to stop consistently swinging at balls that are out out of the strike zone. Devers is a poster boy for someone who has lots of *potential* according to many people-but who has shown little to live up to those expectations.

[Bellhorn04]

Steamer projects Devers to hit >.800 OPS? Seriously? I don't see it...not until he learns to stop consistently swinging at balls that are out out of the strike zone. Devers is a poster boy for someone who has lots of *potential* according to many people-but who has shown little to live up to those expectations.

 

Devers is only 22 years old.

He has a .760 OPS in 179 regular season games.

And an .884 OPS in 15 postseason games.

 

Projecting an .800 OPS is hardly a big stretch.

[Kimmi]

Devers is only 22 years old.

He has a .760 OPS in 179 regular season games.

And an .884 OPS in 15 postseason games.

 

Projecting an .800 OPS is hardly a big stretch.

 

Plus, he worked with JD for a good bit of the offseason.

 

He should be on an upward trend.