The Pen

[moonslav59]

Steamer projects Devers to hit >.800 OPS? Seriously? I don't see it...not until he learns to stop consistently swinging at balls that are out out of the strike zone. Devers is a poster boy for someone who has lots of *potential* according to many people-but who has shown little to live up to those expectations.

 

Click the link, schroll down to Advanced. At the bottom is Steamers 2019 projection of an .805 OPS.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B

[moonslav59]

Devers is only 22 years old.

He has a .760 OPS in 179 regular season games.

And an .884 OPS in 15 postseason games.

 

Projecting an .800 OPS is hardly a big stretch.

 

Exactly!

 

"Shown little?" The guy has been a Yankee killer.

 

He has 31 HRs and 96 RBIs in his very first 730 PAs in MLB at a super young age playing against pitchers many years older than him.

 

Not many good to great players started out worse than this. BR lists players with similar batting numbers at age 21- here are a few of them:

 

Ron Santo

Juan Gonzalez

Cal Ripken

Willie Mays

Jose Canseco

Larry Parish

 

Of course, Devers could underachieve or flame out, but I see more signs he busts out and becomes a great hitter.

 

[harmony]

Click the link, schroll down to Advanced. At the bottom is Steamers 2019 projection of an .805 OPS.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B

Marcel projects Rafael Devers with a 2019 OPS of .769 while ZiPS projects an OPS of .800:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[moonslav59]

Marcel projects Rafael Devers with a 2019 OPS of .769 while ZiPS projects an OPS of .800:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

All significantly higher than 2018's OPS.

[FredLynn]

Devers is only 22 years old.

He has a .760 OPS in 179 regular season games.

And an .884 OPS in 15 postseason games.

 

Projecting an .800 OPS is hardly a big stretch.

 

I would love to see him get an OPS like that, obviously. But at this point that kind of projection doesn't pass the sniff test. All of us watch him at the plate swlnging at too many high strikes. Until he fixes that he isn't going to make that grade.

[moonslav59]

I would love to see him get an OPS like that, obviously. But at this point that kind of projection doesn't pass the sniff test. All of us watch him at the plate swlnging at too many high strikes. Until he fixes that he isn't going to make that grade.

 

Many great hitters had high K rates. He walks enough for it to not be a major issue.

 

Sox K% last year

 

27.5% Swihart

26.0% Leon

25.6% JBJ

24.7% Devers

22.5% JD

22.2% Moreland

19.9% Holt

 

How about hard hit%?

44.9% JD

44.5% Betts

41.1% JBJ

37.9% Bogey

34.9% Moreland

34.4% Devers

33.3% Pearce

29.6% Swihart

29.2% Holt

28.0% Beni

27.5% Vaz

27.2% Nunez

26.4% Leon

 

He's so damn young, I'm not sure why only the K rate should matter.

 

He's a free swinger. He reminds me of Vlad Guerrero or Adrian Beltre at the plate.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers hasn’t shown the ability to drive bad pitches like Guerrero or Beltre. I’ve never seen a better bad ball hitter than Guerrero. The guy could take a ball off his shoe tops, in the other batters box or over his head and hit it out. Beltre is a far second. I’ve yet to see Devers consistently rake bad balls like that, so I wouldn’t put them in anywhere near the same category. Devers can mash a fastball. He can go the other way. He’s got a discipline issue that will improve with experience. I don’t think an .800 OPS is unreasonable for him. I also don’t think a .720 OPS is unreasonable for him. He’s so young and has so much talent that either direction is feasible

[notin]

Also Devers doesn’t freak out if you touch his head....

[Slasher9]

Devers hasn’t shown the ability to drive bad pitches like Guerrero or Beltre.

 

there was that time he turned around that 102MPH FB that was above the letters........

[notin]

My best Vlad Guerrero joke was when he got in trouble after a fight with a police officer.

 

Friend: Hey did you hear about that baseball player who threw a punch at a cop?

Me: Yeah. That was Vlad Guerrero. He’ll swing at anything...

 

Rimshot

[moonslav59]

Devers hasn’t shown the ability to drive bad pitches like Guerrero or Beltre. I’ve never seen a better bad ball hitter than Guerrero. The guy could take a ball off his shoe tops, in the other batters box or over his head and hit it out. Beltre is a far second. I’ve yet to see Devers consistently rake bad balls like that, so I wouldn’t put them in anywhere near the same category. Devers can mash a fastball. He can go the other way. He’s got a discipline issue that will improve with experience. I don’t think an .800 OPS is unreasonable for him. I also don’t think a .720 OPS is unreasonable for him. He’s so young and has so much talent that either direction is feasible

 

Devers hits a lot of HRs on traditionally not HR-type pitches.

 

Here's one (go to the 1:30 time line...

 

[bkzwhitestrican]

Devers was once like the #4 rated prospect in all of baseball at age 20, so obviously the talent is there. If he was a Yankee I would be expecting him to continually improve with age. But since he's a Red Sux, I'm expecting him to become Sandoval Jr. Keep eating young man!

[dgalehouse]

I think Devers has the potential to be a really good hitter. It's a learning process, but the ability is there .

[jung]

I predict another year with Jacko being dragged to the ground by season end AGAIN....sniffle....sniffle.....sniffle. Heck based on history that is a better bet than any of the WS opening odds. Edited February 21, 2019 by jung

[dgalehouse]

All the tough talk is meaningless. Red Sox vs Yankee trash talk that we have heard a million times. All point of view stuff . The season will start soon . In the words of noted boxing referee , Mills Lane ; " Let's get it on ."

[moonslav59]

Devers is closer to 22 than 23, and we should not forget that he only spent ...

 

77 games in AA (320 PAs) at age 20 (.944 OPS)

 

15 games in AAA (60 PAs) at ages 20-21 (1.006 OPS)

 

Having a .760 OPS after his first 730 PAs in MLB should be viewed as encouraging.

 

His 2nd half OPS for 2018 was .781 in 123 PAs.

 

There is a lot to be optimistic about, but of course, he could struggle.

[Jack Flap]

Devers is closer to 22 than 23

 

If by this you mean he just turned 22 in October, then...yes. Other than the World Series, he played all of last season as a 21-year-old, a point which is important to remember if parts of it seemed inconsistent or disappointing.

 

I don't get some people's pessimism...I think we'll see a lot of improvement from him this year.

[BillyWilliams]

Should this thread be renamed the rafael devers thread?

[harmony]

The San Francisco Giants reportedly have signed relievers Nick Vincent and Fernando Abad to minor league deals:

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Should this thread be renamed the rafael devers thread?

 

No, because it'll be on to another topic unrelated to the bullpen in a page or two.

[Kimmi]

there was that time he turned around that 102MPH FB that was above the letters........

 

That was a thing of beauty.

[Bellhorn04]

He also had that little 3-run homer off Verlander into the left field porch in ALCS Game 5.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Makes sense:

 

In 62 1/3 innings, Kimbrel walked 31 batters, none of them intentional. He also allowed home runs and extra-base hits at career-worst rates. Much of Kimbrel's difficulties flowed from declining fastball velocity.

 

Kimbrel can still breathe fire, yes, but his average four-seamer velocity of 97.6 mph was his lowest mark since 2011. Probably as a result of his losing a tick or two, Kimbrel leaned on his breaking ball last season more than ever before. As a partial consequence of throwing that curve more than one-third of the time, Kimbrel worked in the zone less than ever before. On top of all that, Kimbrel's ground-ball percentage was well below his career norms.

 

Now let's turn to FIP. In general terms, FIP, which stands for fielding-independent pitching, is what a pitcher's ERA should be if you emphasize what's most under the pitcher's control (i.e., strikeouts and walks) and correct for things like luck, defense and sequencing. It's a good indicator of a pitcher's underlying basic skills on the mound. Last season, Kimbrel authored an FIP of 3.13. While that's not bad in a vacuum, it's the worst mark of Kimbrel's career. Also, compare it to Kimbrel's pre-2018 career FIP of 1.80. That's indicative of a skills decline.

 

This is about the possible notion that Kimbrel can still be a lockdown closer. He probably can't be that. Good, he can be with an understanding that at this stage of his career he probably gets a little less good each day.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-has-craig-kimbrels-free-agent-market-been-so-quiet-numbers-show-his-days-as-a-lockdown-closer-are-likely-over/

[TylerD]

Devers is closer to 22 than 23, and we should not forget that he only spent ...

 

77 games in AA (320 PAs) at age 20 (.944 OPS)

 

15 games in AAA (60 PAs) at ages 20-21 (1.006 OPS)

 

Having a .760 OPS after his first 730 PAs in MLB should be viewed as encouraging.

 

His 2nd half OPS for 2018 was .781 in 123 PAs.

 

There is a lot to be optimistic about, but of course, he could struggle.

 

Ya it’s too hard to tell how he or a player will do after one season. He can hit the ball that’s for damn sure! I think he has a lot of potential.

[harmony]

Red Sox third basemen in their first two MLB seasons:

 

WM 169 G, 660 PA, 75 R, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .254/.294/.462/.756, OPS+ 102

RD 179 G, 730 PA, 93 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .254/.311/.449/.760. OPS+ 100

 

Of course, Will Middlebrooks was three years older than Rafael Devers in those respective years.

 

With some confidence I suspect Devers will have a better career than Middlebrooks but a wide range of outcomes is possible.

[dgalehouse]

Red Sox third basemen in their first two MLB seasons:

 

WM 169 G, 660 PA, 75 R, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .254/.294/.462/.756, OPS+ 102

RD 179 G, 730 PA, 93 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .254/.311/.449/.760. OPS+ 100

 

Of course, Will Middlebrooks was three years older than Rafael Devers in those respective years.

 

With some confidence I suspect Devers will have a better career than Middlebrooks but a wide range of outcomes is possible.

The Cooler .

[moonslav59]

Red Sox third basemen in their first two MLB seasons:

 

WM 169 G, 660 PA, 75 R, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .254/.294/.462/.756, OPS+ 102

RD 179 G, 730 PA, 93 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .254/.311/.449/.760. OPS+ 100

 

Of course, Will Middlebrooks was three years older than Rafael Devers in those respective years.

 

With some confidence I suspect Devers will have a better career than Middlebrooks but a wide range of outcomes is possible.

 

The large age differential makes the comp irrelevant.

 

[harmony]

The Red Sox bullpen reportedly is complete:

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/dombrowski-red-sox-wont-be-signing-any-more-relievers

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox bullpen reportedly is complete:

 

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/dombrowski-red-sox-wont-be-signing-any-more-relievers

 

I notice how he left the door open though. What he's basically saying is 'We think we have enough, but we'll see.'

[dgalehouse]

If the plan is to wait until we are having bullpen problems and then trade prospects for a reliever who is probably not as good as most of those we passed on as free agents , I don't especially care for it . Not a very proactive approach.