The Pen

[Bellhorn04]

The comparisons to 2003 in terms of a dedicated closer vs a committee are not really accurate, either. The Sox had a dedicated closer in 2003 - or a very small committee - in Chad Fox. The problem wasn’t the lack of a dedicated closer; it was a bullpen loaded with mediocre to bad pitchers. This year, that is where the comparison begins and ends. The Sox simply don’t have very many good pitchers out there regardless of their roles...

 

The 'rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic' analogy comes to mind.

[notin]

The 'rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic' analogy comes to mind.

 

The biggest difference was Epstein didn’t stand pat for half a season and hope things got better. After only 54 games, he dealt the vastly overrated Shea Hillenbrand for Byung-Hyun Kim...

[OH FOY]

The biggest difference was Epstein didn’t stand pat for half a season and hope things got better. After only 54 games, he dealt the vastly overrated Shea Hillenbrand for Byung-Hyun Kim...

 

Excellent point, Theo always tried to improve. Might not always have been right, but his attitude as a GM, was the correct one.

[OH FOY]

If Theo was GM, he might move Chavis now, to improve what we need this year. Gamble yes, you have to gamble to be a good GM.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD is the ultimate gambler. He got safe after a title. Hence why his team isn’t great this year

[notin]

DD is the ultimate gambler. He got safe after a title. Hence why his team isn’t great this year

 

 

Think so?

 

I’ve always felt he makes safe moves. He rarely if ever moves MLB players for others, preferring to deal higher rated prospects for established players and typically signing expensive but productive players.

 

Financially, it’s risky. But from a baseball perspective, he seems to play it safe a lot...

[notin]

Tigers are talking to Trevor Rosenthal, likely on a minors deal.

 

Way to aggressively maintain the status quo,DD!!

 

And the Tigers signed Rosenthal.

 

Way to go, DD! Let’s not gamble on that bullpen with the waiver wire opportunities!! Those should be reserved for players like Chris Owings!!! Status Quo!! Status Quo!!!

 

(This is sarcasm.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Think so?

 

I’ve always felt he makes safe moves. He rarely if ever moves MLB players for others, preferring to deal higher rated prospects for established players and typically signing expensive but productive players.

 

Financially, it’s risky. But from a baseball perspective, he seems to play it safe a lot...

 

DD is always willing to empty the farm or spend top dollar to improve.

[notin]

DD is always willing to empty the farm or spend top dollar to improve.

 

 

Exactly. Me? I consider that safer if you have the budget.

 

Of course, it can (and probably will at some point) burn you...

[moonslav59]

Updated tally after 82 games:

Game 81: W 6-3 CWS: SP 6 IP 2 ER (1 unearned)/RP 3 IP 0 ER

(RP gets win/alt scoring SP+2/RP+2)

Game 82: L 8-7 CWS: SP 6 IP 5 ER/ RP 3 IP 3 ER

(RP gets the loss slightly/ ALT: SP-2/RP-2)

 

Starters 16-22 (-6)

 

Relievers 27-15 (+12)

 

 

The alternative scoring:

 

SP +20

 

RP +46

[Kimmi]

That's 4 late inning leads coughed up in 17 days (June 10, 18, 22 and 26).

 

Oh Foy made a very good post in another thread regarding the trickle down effect of our starters' performance to our relievers' performance, but I can't seem to locate it now.

 

Our pen is tired. They have been called upon to do more than expected, especially early in the season. Perhaps the overuse is catching up to them, especially in the month of June. Had our starters not gotten off to such a slow start, and had Eovaldi and Price not gone on the IL, would our pen have fewer blown saves? No one can say for sure, but I'm very confident that the answer would be 'yes'.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees that the pen needs some reinforcement. I think the disagreement is in whether Dombrowski was wrong not to add reinforcements during the offseason. I don't think he was.

[Kimmi]

I remember saying this exact same thing in the winter. Funny?

 

What is a 'real closer'?

 

Are you talking about having set roles, where the closer only comes in during the 9th inning? Or are you talking about someone who is well know who costs millions of dollars?

[moonslav59]

Alternative Pitcher Scoring System:

 

+ 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings

 

+1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings.

 

0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50.

 

-1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00.

 

-2 for any game over 6.01

 

1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2)

2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2)

4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2)

5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2)

6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2)

8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2)

9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2)

10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1)

Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7

 

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2)

12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2)

13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2)

14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2)

15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2)

16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2)

18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2)

20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0

 

21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2)

22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2)

23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2)

24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2)

25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2)

26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2)

27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2)

28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2)

30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2)

Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2

 

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2)

32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2)

33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2)

36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2)

37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0)

38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0)

Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8

 

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2)

43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2)

46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2)

47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0)

50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9

 

51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1)

53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2)

54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2)

55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2)

56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2)

57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2)

58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2)

59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2)

60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6

 

61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**)

62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1)

63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1)

64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2)

65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0)

67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2)

68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2)

69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2)

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**)

Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3

 

71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0)

72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1)

74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2)

76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2)

77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2)

78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**)

79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1)

80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11

 

81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2)

 

The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 79 games:

 

SP +20

 

RP +46

 

 

Updated after 82 games.

 

The vast majority of the time our pen did a good to great job. They have lost 9 games due to blown saves.

Edited June 28, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Actually CALLING them anything is another version of the same scam that calls 6 innings at some number of runs a "quality start". Its just more crap invented by stat-geeks for agents to justify salaries. "Why my player had 10 quality starts last year. That should be worth at least $2M per for a $20M annual salary."We have already blown up the salaries of Closers. Lets blow up the salaries of the entire pen.Why not....not that anybody realizes that 80% of the actual audience for these things is made up of 65+ year olds like me. Once we die off, then what?

 

Honestly the amount that the powers that be in MLB and the stat-geeks are artificially manipulating this game is just ridiculous.

 

Trust me on this one. The stat geeks did not invent quality starts or saves/blown saves/holds/blown holds to justify salaries.

 

Stat geeks would probably not even have those stats in their vocabularies if they could help it.

[moonslav59]

Trust me on this one. The stat geeks did not invent quality starts or saves/blown saves/holds/blown holds to justify salaries.

 

Stat geeks would probably not even have those stats in their vocabularies if they could help it.

 

I think a quality start should be this:

4+ IP 1 ER or less

5+ IP 2 ER or less

7+ IP 3 ER or less

9+ IP 4 ER or less

 

[Kimmi]

Lets say 4 for argument sake, the Sox record would be 48-34. They would be 6 behind the Yanks in the loss column, instead of 10, 6 GB's, and would be 2 up leading the WC.

That's how important a single game is.

When you have the lead, it is huge to finish it, and win it.

Also being 6 behind in the loss column, going into this weekend, it is still not imperative, to sweep it, you get by with a split. Sox now need to gain ground on the Yanks, even though it will be in only June 29th, and 30th.

Sox now cannot be swept. Split is not too much to be happy about, all it amounts to is 2 more games off of the schedule. 2 games less to gain ground.

Less games to play in the season, even MORE important to win them when you have the lead.

Only 80 games left, sounds like a lot, but it isn't.

 

FTR, the Yankees have a Pythagorean W-L record of 49-31.

 

The Red Sox Pythagorean W-L record is 46-36.

 

We are playing closer to the ability of the Yankees than our actual record reflects.

[Kimmi]

DD blew it with the pen this offseason, there's no way around it.

 

The idea that we could bolster the pen at the deadline is nice, but being double digits behind in the division by the time we make that addition is not.

 

But why are we double digits down?

[kenmeister]

Good thing we didn't trade for Edwin Diaz.

 

Oh that reminds me, let me check on my offseason crush of Jose LeClerc and see how he's doing. 4.58 ERA oh my!!! How do you go from 1.56 of a year ago to this? I guess he followed the Ryan Brasier plan...

[moonslav59]

How many our 16 blown saves have come in the 9th inning?

5 in 9th

5 in 8th

4 in 7th

1 in 12th

1 in 13th

(10 blown saves in 8th and 9th)

 

How many games with 1 or more blown saves?

1 on June 18th

 

Out of the 15 games we had 1-2 blown saves, how many did we end up losing?

Only 9.

 

Here's a look at our blown saves by pitcher.

 

Brasier 7 saves/ 3 BS

4/17 L 3-5 (0.2 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 2K) 7th inning

5/2 L 4-6 (0.1 IP 3 ER 2H 0 BB 1K) 9th inning

5/28 L5-7 (0.0 IP 3 ER 2H 1 BB 0K) 9th inning

 

Barnes 4 saves/6 BS

4/20 W 6-5 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 0 BB 3K) 8th

4/21 W 4-3 (1 IP 1 ER 1 H 1 BB 2K) 8th

5/15 W 6-5 (0.1 IP 0 ER 1 H 0 BB 1K) 7th

6/10 L 3-4 (0.2 IP 2 ER 3H 1 BB 1K) 9th

6/22 L 7-8 (0.2 IP 3 ER 2 H 2 BB 1K) 8th

6/26 L7-8 (0.1 IP 2 ER 3H 0BB 0K) 9th

 

Workman 2 saves/ 3 BS

5/14 L 4-5 (1.0 IP 2 ER 2H 0 BB 2K) 8th

6/12 W 4-3 (1.1 IP 0 ER 0H 1BB 2K- 1 unearned run) 7-8th

6/18 L 3-4 (1.0 IP 1 ER 1 H 2 BB 2K) 8th

 

Hembree 1 sv/ 1 BS

5/22 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 1H 0 BB 3K) 12th

 

Walden 1 Sv/ 2 BS

5/19 W 6-5 (2.0 IP 1 ER 4H 1 BB 3K) 9-10th

6/16 W 8-6 (1.2 IP 1 ER 1H 1 BB 1K )7-8th

 

Velazquez 0 sv/ 1 BS

6/18 L 3-4 (4 IP 1 ER 3H 0BB 3K) 13-16 innings

 

Smith 1 sv/ 0 BS

 

So, basically, we've lost 9 games due to blown saves. We've won 7 games after blowing a save and many games won with our pen saving the game or holding the lead. Then there are many games where our pen got the win after our offense brought us back from a deficit brought on by our starter.

Edited June 28, 2019 by moonslav59

[kenmeister]

Of interest:

 

CHICAGO -- It wasn't without drama, but new Chicago Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel did his job in nailing down his first save on his very first day on the job at Wrigley Field. Kimbrel got the first two outs in the ninth inning Thursday, then gave up a double and four-pitch walk before inducing Freddie Freeman to ground out and preserving a 9-7 Cubs win over the Atlanta Braves.

 

Good to see Kimbrel is still the same. Heathcliff Slocumb reincarnated.

[Kimmi]

It’s not easy when you get all the tough outings.

 

He may not be the best pitcher for the high leverage situations. Or maybe the Sox need TWO relievers they can count on in those type of outings...

 

Our resident, beloved, booth visiting nerd made a good point.

 

Last year, the Sox often scored early, then tacked on runs throughout the game. We weren't playing as many close games in the late innings as we are this year. When you are constantly playing from behind and/or trying to protect 1-2 run leads, it becomes very taxing. There are more high stress innings on our pitchers, besides the simple fact that if you are playing more close games, you're likely to blow more leads in the late innings than if you're playing games with a 4-5 run leads.

[Bellhorn04]

So, basically, we've lost 9 games due to blown saves.

 

That seems like a LARGE number at just about the halfway point. To determine how large you'd have to compare to other teams and to past seasons.

[Kimmi]

Ottavino is a bullpen explosion waiting to happen.

 

He isn’t going to maintain that 1.51 ERA while averaging 6 walks per 9 IP for long...

 

FIP - 3.94

xFIP - 4.18

SIERA - 4.04

BABIP - .235

 

Ottavino might be the current luckiest pitcher in MLB.

[Kimmi]

I say it yet again . Closing ain't easy . Neris blew the save , and Diaz blew it right back .

 

Diaz had 57 saves last season with a 1.96 ERA.

 

So closing was easy for him last year, but not so much this year?

[Bellhorn04]

But why are we double digits down?

 

Reasons we could talk about all day.

 

What I'm really talking about in this case is the philosophy of postponing a needed move until the trade deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

Diaz had 57 saves last season with a 1.96 ERA.

 

So closing was easy for him last year, but not so much this year?

 

The bright lights got him!

[Kimmi]

The biggest difference was Epstein didn’t stand pat for half a season and hope things got better. After only 54 games, he dealt the vastly overrated Shea Hillenbrand for Byung-Hyun Kim...

 

How much does this have to do with Dombrowsk's hands being tied financially? Dave is probably itching to trade for a shut down closer type, but can't due to financial and prospect constraints.

 

Now the fact that he's not taking the chance on any of the no risk guys is solely on him. I have agreed with you on that since Day 1.

[Kimmi]

Think so?

 

I’ve always felt he makes safe moves. He rarely if ever moves MLB players for others, preferring to deal higher rated prospects for established players and typically signing expensive but productive players.

 

Financially, it’s risky. But from a baseball perspective, he seems to play it safe a lot...

 

Dombrowski does play it safe. He is not a risk taker, in general.

 

That said, I commend him for taking a risk and not spending big on the BP this offseason.

[Kimmi]

DD is always willing to empty the farm or spend top dollar to improve.

 

Yes, on 'safe bets'.

[Bellhorn04]

How much does this have to do with Dombrowsk's hands being tied financially? Dave is probably itching to trade for a shut down closer type, but can't due to financial and prospect constraints.

 

As notin has been saying all along, if the budget was that tight, why sign Pearce instead of a reliever?