The Pen

[SCM33]

Well... I think if there was anyone defending bullpen, they’re gone now. This is officially a s*** show

 

I’ve defended the bullpen relentlessly, but no more, although I do wonder if this stadium isn’t a factor. Yesterday the Yankees gave up 13 runs and today 8. Tanaka their ace gave up 6 in the 1st inning.

 

The bullpen has gone from Barely Tolerable to Completely Unacceptable rather quickly. I don’t think the solution is to keep working them harder...

 

I’ve defended Barnes quite a bit but he’s a major league screw up. Get him off this team. It’s a guarantee we cough up the lead when he comes in. This team is in shambles right now. Starters also haven’t been good. Sales last two starts have not been good. Porcello was horrible yesterday. E Rod was excellent today. Too bad we couldn’t get him a win. It’s insane we go from one of the best teams we have ever had last year to this crap. So many changes needed.

 

Ive been beating this drum all year. I stated that their results do not indicate the talent level. I was crucified for it, but I was right.

 

Matt Barnes is fine in his role, as a 6th inning reliever. Anything more is asking too much. His numbers were above average at one point, and his stuff is above average, but he is not an above average reliever. Now his numbers are below average. He is somewhere in the middle, regardless of his above average stuff. He just doesn’t come through enough.

 

But, this is not a “I told you so”. I like Barnes. I love the redsox, but their bullpen is missing 3 MAJOR pieces. A closer, a setup man and a reliable lefty. Championship teams have those 3 pieces.

Edited July 1, 2019 by SCM33

[OH FOY]

2 things happened to this Pen, that we always miss, Carson Smith, and Tyler Thornburg. These moves were made for the future, so when guys left, they would fit in. These 2 bad luck situations killed us. Neither could come back from injuries, to help.

[notin]

2 things happened to this Pen, that we always miss, Carson Smith, and Tyler Thornburg. These moves were made for the future, so when guys left, they would fit in. These 2 bad luck situations killed us. Neither could come back from injuries, to help.

 

While I think you’re 100% correct, the problem, both these pitchers started getting injured 3 years ago. It’s not like their injuries snuck up on Dombrowski this season. At least I hope not. He’s had warning.

 

I honestly don’t think I have EVER seen a Sox GM this inactive during the first half. I am probably forgetting someone, but as far as I can recall, his entire list of acquisitions in the first half this year (not counting the draft) is Cody Asche, Joey Curletta, and Chris Owings. None of whom are pitchers...

[S5Dewey]

What I don't care for is the " committee " approach. I think a bullpen functions better when they all have their roles and can prepare themselves accordingly. Of course that starts with having a reliable closer.

 

I'll say this.... This year's BP should put to rest the theories that 1) a team doesn't need a "closer", and 2) the way to build a BP is by throwing names against the wall and seeing what sticks.

 

I'll confess that the stat geeks had me somewhat convinced that a team doesn't need a closer but when you don't have TWO closers - one to put out the fire in the 7th and one to pitch the 9th - you damn better have that ONE 9th inning guy because if you don't you've already wasted your best reliever in the 7th. As someone said here some time ago..I think it was Doji... 'Not having a closer isn't a big deal - until you don't have one."

 

I do find it difficult to blame DD for not having a stronger pen because building a pen is a crap shoot. These guys are in the pen because they're not good enough to start and not good enough to close so they're in the BP. It's hard to say who's going to pan out and who isn't until it's too late. IMO the pen is snake-bit this year with everyone underperforming and that's just unpredictable.

 

Here's what I do know for sure: I can remember seasons when the Sox would be trailing half way through the game and I wasn't concerned. I knew that when our offense got matched up against the other team's pen their lead wasn't safe. Now it's the other way around. I always have the feeling that no lead is too big for our pen to not blow, and it sucks.

[notin]

I'll say this.... This year's BP should put to rest the theories that 1) a team doesn't need a "closer", and 2) the way to build a BP is by throwing names against the wall and seeing what sticks.

 

I'll confess that the stat geeks had me somewhat convinced that a team doesn't need a closer but when you don't have TWO closers - one to put out the fire in the 7th and one to pitch the 9th - you damn better have that ONE 9th inning guy because if you don't you've already wasted your best reliever in the 7th. As someone said here some time ago..I think it was Doji... 'Not having a closer isn't a big deal - until you don't have one."

 

 

Tampa’s bullpen is doing just fine without a designated closer. The Mets have the best closer from last season, and picked up 2 other pitchers with closing experience, and are doing worse than the Sox.

 

The problem isn’t having a designated closer and a bunch of other pitchers with defined roles. Cora could easily establish roles and this bullpen would still suck. The primary issue is - they don’t have good pitchers in the bullpen.

 

Dombrowski made mistakes thinking 30 IP from Brasier over the last 5 seasons was adequate sample size to show what he was. And thinking he could replace 120 IP from Kimbrel and Kelly with Marcus Walden and Colten Brewer. A committee doesn’t mean ANYONE should be in the bullpen and handle closing roles. It just means you don’t trot some Craig Kimbrel type out there in the 9th to face the bottom of the order when you have a 2 or 3 run lead.

 

You still need good pitchers and not a slew of career career minor leaguers coupled with some optimism and wishful thinking.

 

And if you do have the latter, at some point, you need to be ready and willing to make changes and not obstinately trot out the same 7 pitchers hoping today will be different...

[S5Dewey]

The problem isn’t having a designated closer and a bunch of other pitchers with defined roles. Cora could easily establish roles and this bullpen would still suck. The primary issue is - they don’t have good pitchers in the bullpen.

 

Dombrowski made mistakes thinking 30 IP from Brasier over the last 5 seasons was adequate sample size to show what he was. And thinking he could replace 120 IP from Kimbrel and Kelly with Marcus Walden and Colten Brewer. A committee doesn’t mean ANYONE should be in the bullpen and handle closing roles. It just means you don’t trot some Craig Kimbrel type out there in the 9th to face the bottom of the order when you have a 2 or 3 run lead.

 

And if you do have the latter, at some point, you need to be ready and willing to make changes and not obstinately trot out the same 7 pitchers hoping today will be different...

I'm even coming back around on the idea of having a real closer to finish games. While I agree that it makes little sense to run Kimbrel out there to face the 7-8-9 guys at the same time there's only one chance in seven that will happen - and even if it does happen I'd rather have Kimbrel out there than Colton Brewer with Kimbrel used up in the 7th. They're still facing MLB hitters.

 

The real crux of the problem there for every team is that what with the current thinking that starters only pitch 6 innings the role of a BP is evolving. To be successful in that scenario a team needs a stable of good pen arms and right now the Sox don't have more than one who can be depended on nor do they have starters who can go seven or eight innings.

 

The Sox scored enough runs in London to have won both games, they just gave up too many and that's on the pen.

[notin]

I'm even coming back around on the idea of having a real closer to finish games. While I agree that it makes little sense to run Kimbrel out there to face the 7-8-9 guys at the same time there's only one chance in seven that will happen - and even if it does happen I'd rather have Kimbrel out there than Colton Brewer with Kimbrel used up in the 7th. They're still facing MLB hitters.

 

The real crux of the problem there for every team is that what with the current thinking that starters only pitch 6 innings the role of a BP is evolving. To be successful in that scenario a team needs a stable of good pen arms and right now the Sox don't have more than one who can be depended on nor do they have starters who can go seven or eight innings.

 

The Sox scored enough runs in London to have won both games, they just gave up too many and that's on the pen.

 

But there is a one in three chance of the 9th inning starting with the bottom of the order. And even facing the 9-1-2 hitters, while not ideal, should place the opposing team in a one out-no one on situation before the leadoff hitter comes up. That’s a high probability win scenario.

 

If about two-thirds of all save situations are 2 and 3 run leads, which is probably close to true most of the time, then that means about 30% of all save situations, the first hitter in the ninth bats 6th or beliw down multiple runs. That’s a high likelihood of a win right off the bat. And that also means the 3-4-5 hitter come up in the 7-8th, which is where the feat of the real damage can occur.

 

I have no problem using the best reliever to get those better hitters in the 7-8th and saving a lesser pitcher for the ninth. But that lesser pitcher probably shouldn’t be a career minor leaguer. You still need an actual good pitcher out there. I was never opposed to getting a Kimbrel/Britton /Ottavino type, but I never liked limiting him to the 9th inning, because that’s not always where the game is on the line.

 

And I was adamantly opposed to replacing the 120 IP lost from Kimberly and Kelly with Brewer and Walden. That was just flat out stupid...

[Bellhorn04]

Doing what other managers do doesn't mean that it is smart. Most managers are buffoons. Don't get me started on my opinion of them as a group. With this pen, if Cora finds a guy is getting outs on a particular night and he is commanding his stuff, he should probably stay with him a little longer than to reach into the cheap box of chocolates for another bad piece.

 

I do get what you're saying, 100%.

 

As far as the particular situation we're talking about:

 

Cora brought Brewer in in the 6th to face the 7-8-9 hitters. Brewer threw 15 pitches. He had thrown 15 pitches on Saturday as well.

 

Cora brought Walden in in the 7th to face the top of the order, using the philosophy that you use your better relievers to face the better hitters.

 

I can understand some questioning of why not stick with Brewer a little longer. But I can also see an argument for going to Walden.

 

The box of chocolates has become a box of dog turds, unfortunately.

[dannycater]

Start with any relief pitcher. 10 day auctions, starting bid $12.95

 

That's how the Sox got that tall shaggy-haired lefty

[dannycater]

I had a discussion or argument with a trusted baseball expert (works in MLB). I said why is there such a wide divide between how a SP is used and how relievers are abused in opposite. I said you got guys who are on limited pitch counts, pitch once every 5 or 6 days, and are paid high millions and long-term contracts. Then you have relievers who are routinely being used 4x in a week, maybe even warm up and don't come into a game another time and it's perfectly okay to do that and they are getting paid at best low millions, short-term contracts. He said, it's all about the investment. You pour money into the SP, you take care of his arm. As for the relievers, who cares if they get hurt or they get tired arms because they are replaceable. Well, I disagree. You have to start pushing SPs to go longer pitch counts--EROD had only gone past 115 pitches once in his career prior to London. He was rolling and in my opinion should have been allowed to finish the 6th inning. He faced one predictable lefty batter and was pulled. ********. Even if he reached 130 pitches to finish the inning it would have been 2 less outs for the over-taxed relief staff. This is the real problem with the Pen. Over-work. It's not that they are bad pitchers--Brasier, Walden, Barnes, Workman are actually pretty good (3 postseason experienced) and have been at times outstanding. They don't have a designated closer, or setup guys and too many are throwing a lot because we can't get SPs to go past 115 pitches--forget the pitches--go with innings. The innings work is what is important. Pedro throws 150 pitches in 03 playoff or whatever it was and then it's like some sort of "oh, well, see he was never going to be effective past 125 and that's why he should have been pulled" to "oh my, no way are we ever going to allow a guy to pitch past 100-115 pitches. Get the pen ready at 95." Whatever.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s been proven that most pitchers fade beyond 100 pitches and also fade the third time they face a lineup. Continuing with ERod, who was being his usual wild and uneconomical self, would have led to disaster as well

[dannycater]

Once you start stretching out SPs to go 130 pitches or more--and let me be more specific--if that SP is on a roll, or in control, and not being hit hard while he is on his 121st pitch, 122nd pitch, etc, you let them go as far as you can. The number of outs is the important thing. Limit a taxed pen to less outs to record on a game-by-game basis, less relievers used, and then finally less work for an entire PEN that needs its own respite.

[dannycater]

It’s been proven that most pitchers fade beyond 100 pitches and also fade the third time they face a lineup. Continuing with ERod, who was being his usual wild and uneconomical self, would have led to disaster as well

 

Proven my ass. Stretch the younger guys out. It was never ever a problem back in the 1970s, 1980s. It's a pampering that has gone on for way too long.

[Maxbialystock]

A lot of talk on this thread right after the Yankees lineup literally decimated the Sox bullpen in two games in London. That's fair. But last weekend had/has absolutely nothing to do with the requirement--or not--of a great closer because the Sox did not need a closer in either game.

 

In fact, I would caution one and all to play down if not completely ignore last weekend because both teams scored a ton of runs with scores of 17-13 and 12-8.

 

For those insisting on a better bullpen, maybe one like the Yankees have, consider the following. Chapman, Britton, and Ottavino are paid a total of $39M, so reliable, shut down bullpens don't come cheap. The Yankees can afford to do that because they, unlike the Sox, are not paying a king's ransom for their rotation.

 

I am not, repeat not, the smart guy on this thread because I said all season long this bullpen was basically "good enough." Now I'm having second thoughts. I will add however, that letting Kelly and Kimbrel be "stolen" was not that dumb because Kelly has not pitched well for the Dodgers and Kimbrel was asking too much for a closer who rarely pitched in tough situations other than those he created.

[Bellhorn04]

Once you start stretching out SPs to go 130 pitches or more--and let me be more specific--if that SP is on a roll, or in control, and not being hit hard while he is on his 121st pitch, 122nd pitch, etc, you let them go as far as you can. The number of outs is the important thing. Limit a taxed pen to less outs to record on a game-by-game basis, less relievers used, and then finally less work for an entire PEN that needs its own respite.

 

danny, experience has shown that when a starting pitcher throws an unusually high number of pitches in a game, it impacts him negatively in his next several starts.

 

A classic example of recent years was when Edwin Jackson threw his 149-pitch no-hitter. He was absolute garbage for about 6 or 7 starts after that.

 

I also remember a game where Tito let Schilling throw 130-something pitches, and Curt was awful his next few starts, and Tito took his lumps for it.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Proven my ass. Stretch the younger guys out. It was never ever a problem back in the 1970s, 1980s. It's a pampering that has gone on for way too long.

 

Billy Martin tried to stop the pampering, big time, with the 1980 Oakland A's. It didn't work out so well for the guys in that rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Proven my ass. Stretch the younger guys out. It was never ever a problem back in the 1970s, 1980s. It's a pampering that has gone on for way too long.

 

There were a massive amount of pitchers who flamed out in the minors back then due to injury. Also, those guys never threw with the velocity of today's players.

[notin]

 

For those insisting on a better bullpen, maybe one like the Yankees have, consider the following. Chapman, Britton, and Ottavino are paid a total of $39M, so reliable, shut down bullpens don't come cheap. The Yankees can afford to do that because they, unlike the Sox, are not paying a king's ransom for their rotation.

 

When it comes to a better bullpen, there is an ocean-sized gray area between what the Sox have and the Yankees have...

[jacksonianmarch]

When it comes to a better bullpen, there is an ocean-sized gray area between what the Sox have and the Yankees have...

 

Hence the problem with using average stats. The sox pen had a better ERA than the Yankees pen going into the series by a few points. Fancy that, the sox pen must be better!! No, Boone is entirely fine with hanging someone out to dry if we are getting wiped out. There are a lot of bad innings mixed in there. Throw in the implosion of Holder and the abysmal initial start for Green and you have a high ERA. But if we have a shot at winning, the quartet of Kahnle-Ottavino-Britton-Chapman have been lights out. If we get a lead, we have a very high percentage of winning the game. I think the number I used was 88%. We have an 88% hold/save percentage. Meaning when a lead is handed to the pen in a hold or save situation, each pitcher does their job 88% of the time. That's really, really good

[notin]

Not to mention ERA doesn’t account for inherited runners from the starters...

[Maxbialystock]

I do get what you're saying, 100%.

 

As far as the particular situation we're talking about:

 

Cora brought Brewer in in the 6th to face the 7-8-9 hitters. Brewer threw 15 pitches. He had thrown 15 pitches on Saturday as well.

 

Cora brought Walden in in the 7th to face the top of the order, using the philosophy that you use your better relievers to face the better hitters.

 

I can understand some questioning of why not stick with Brewer a little longer. But I can also see an argument for going to Walden.

 

The box of chocolates has become a box of dog turds, unfortunately.

 

Agree completely. One can argue that Shawaryn had no business going 2 innings and giving up 8 runs on Saturday, but yesterday Brewer was the right guy for the 6th and Walden for the 7th and maybe even Barnes for the 8th. But the latter two were killed in the 7th. That cannot be on Cora.

 

We all like to gripe about Porcello, but we have also seen him pitch well. Saturday he gave up 6 runs while getting just one out on a line drive hit to JBJ. That just might have been Porcello's worst outing in a Red Sox uniform.

 

Then Tanaka does the exact same thing in the bottom of the 1st--gives up 6 runs while getting 2 outs. And Tanaka is basically the Yankees ace this year.

 

My point is that for the most part that ballpark in London was not pitcher-friendly, and ERod just might have bragging rights (among the Sox rotation) for the rest of the year.

[Bellhorn04]

My point is that for the most part that ballpark in London was not pitcher-friendly, and ERod just might have bragging rights (among the Sox rotation) for the rest of the year.

 

Yeah, I don't know what the deal on the ballpark was, but 50 runs in 2 games is insane.

[notin]

Yeah, I don't know what the deal on the ballpark was, but 50 runs in 2 games is insane.

 

You have to remember those were metric runs...

[moonslav59]

With the, at one time, promising Walden experiment possibly coming to a close (9.72 ERA and 1.070 OPS against since June 9th), and Hembree on the shelf indefinitely, what is DD waiting for? A Wright miracle? Even if Wright pitches like he has in his great stretches of the past, he still cannot be enough to fix the pen.

 

Yes, the weekend series contributed to these awful numbers, but here are some ERAs from the last 28 days:

 

15.00 Poyner 3 IP

13.50 Weber 1.1

9.00 DHern 3.0

9.00 Barnes 11.0

8.53 Shawaryn 12.2

7.50 Walden 12.0

5.91 Taylor 10.2

5.73 JSmith 11.0

4.50 Wright 4.0

 

(Starter ERAs: 5.89 Porcello, 4.91 Price, 4.38 ERod, 2.73 Sale, 2.16 Johnson)

 

[Bellhorn04]

You have to remember those were metric runs...

 

Maybe the mound was too far from the plate.

[Maxbialystock]

At the end of Casablanca, Bogart says to Ingrid Bergman, "we'll always have Paris." So too the Yankees and their fans--they'll always have London.

[moonslav59]

With the, at one time, promising Walden experiment possibly coming to a close (9.72 ERA and 1.070 OPS against since June 9th), and Hembree on the shelf indefinitely, what is DD waiting for? A Wright miracle? Even if Wright pitches like he has in his great stretches of the past, he still cannot be enough to fix the pen.

 

Yes, the weekend series contributed to these awful numbers, but here are some ERAs from the last 28 days:

 

15.00 Poyner 3 IP

13.50 Weber 1.1

9.00 DHern 3.0

9.00 Barnes 11.0

8.53 Shawaryn 12.2

7.50 Walden 12.0

5.91 Taylor 10.2

5.73 JSmith 11.0

4.50 Wright 4.0

 

(Starter ERAs: 5.89 Porcello, 4.91 Price, 4.38 ERod, 2.73 Sale, 2.16 Johnson)

 

Even taking away the weekend, here are some numbers from May 27th to June 27th:

 

15.19 Weber

15.00 Poyner

9.00 DHern

8.10 Lakins

5.73 J Smith

4.76 JTaylor

 

That's 37 IP from guys that should not ever be on the mound, unless it's a blow out.

 

These guys should be 6th and 7th inning guys not 8th inning guys:

7.43 Velazquez

5.68 Walden

 

These guys should be 7th and 8th inning guys not 9th inning guys:

7.43 Barnes

4.22 Brasier

 

These are the only 3 pen guys getting the job done recently:

0.00 Wright

0.66 Workman

2.25 Brewer

 

 

 

[notin]

Maybe the mound was too far from the plate.

 

60 feet, 60 meters?

 

Are these players so coddled they can’t handle a little conversion any more?

[TylerD]

For the sweet love of f*** when is Eovaldi back!!!!

[vegasbob]

For the sweet love of f*** when is Eovaldi back!!!!

 

About the time your son turns 3, Tyler