The Pen

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m sure some teams do this. And I’m sure there’s a bit of gamesmanship on the Sox behalf. Matt Barnes is an arb 1 this year coming off a great final year of prearb and he’s making $1.6 mil. Keeping him from 40 saves likely saves the Sox $1-$2 mil next year. That money can be put towards JDM. Listen, I’m not saying Cora is going to do this to the detriment of the squad, but if he gets good production out of all of his back end guys, it behooves the Sox of 2020 to have Barnes, Brasier and Workman split the saves.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m sure some teams do this. And I’m sure there’s a bit of gamesmanship on the Sox behalf. Matt Barnes is an arb 1 this year coming off a great final year of prearb and he’s making $1.6 mil. Keeping him from 40 saves likely saves the Sox $1-$2 mil next year. That money can be put towards JDM. Listen, I’m not saying Cora is going to do this to the detriment of the squad, but if he gets good production out of all of his back end guys, it behooves the Sox of 2020 to have Barnes, Brasier and Workman split the saves.

 

There's a paradigm shift though. The 'best reliever pitches the ninth' approach is changing throughout the game. And relievers with good numbers but few saves are getting paid.

[Slasher9]

I’m sure some teams do this. And I’m sure there’s a bit of gamesmanship on the Sox behalf. Matt Barnes is an arb 1 this year coming off a great final year of prearb and he’s making $1.6 mil. Keeping him from 40 saves likely saves the Sox $1-$2 mil next year. That money can be put towards JDM. Listen, I’m not saying Cora is going to do this to the detriment of the squad, but if he gets good production out of all of his back end guys, it behooves the Sox of 2020 to have Barnes, Brasier and Workman split the saves.

 

i mean...do you even realize how ridiculous this is? tin foil hat x 100....

[Maxbialystock]

There's a paradigm shift though. The 'best reliever pitches the ninth' approach is changing throughout the game. And relievers with good numbers but few saves are getting paid.

 

Plus to this fan the paradigm shift makes sense. Moreover, I think it was one more reason not to re-sign Kimbrel, who wanted the big bucks long term and didn't want to do windows (pitch anytime other than a clean 9th inning for a save).

[S5Dewey]

Plus to this fan the paradigm shift makes sense. Moreover, I think it was one more reason not to re-sign Kimbrel, who wanted the big bucks long term and didn't want to do windows (pitch anytime other than a clean 9th inning for a save).

 

As a fan and a guy who'd have given a good portion of his right arm to play professional baseball (how well I could have played with part of my right arm missing is another story) this is one of the things that rankled me the most about Kimbrel. No only does he think he can command a multi-million dollar contract, he also wants to dictate how he'll be used. Well, NO! If I'm an owner paying that kind of money I'm going to be able to dictate how and when is your best opportunity to help the team win.

 

This strikes me as a prime example of the tail wagging the dog.

[moonslav59]

Sitting out half a season might make him wake the F. up!

[jacksonianmarch]

There's a paradigm shift though. The 'best reliever pitches the ninth' approach is changing throughout the game. And relievers with good numbers but few saves are getting paid.

 

They are getting paid on the FA market, but the arb market has suppressed middle relievers forever and will continue to do so until someone breaks the mold there. Betances has a ridiculous final pre arb season and asked for pre arb closer money and was denied because of the lack of saves

[dgalehouse]

In my view , the trend of not using your best reliever to close , whatever the reasoning may be , is misguided , wrong and just not smart . Whether it is done to best win games , save money or any other reason , it is not a good idea . Blown saves are becoming a nightly occurrence around baseball . Just take a look . If you have an elite closer , and there are not too many of them , use him to get those elusive final outs . That is why the Yankees signed guys like Britton and Ottavino . So they could have Chapman for the ninth . Too many people want to re-invent the wheel .

[jacksonianmarch]

They saw how effective the Guardians were and want to replicate it. The problem most teams have is they don’t have two closers on the roster. My point, though, is the arb process. The arb process has continually and systematically devalued middle relievers.

[mvp 78]

They saw how effective the Guardians were and want to replicate it. The problem most teams have is they don’t have two closers on the roster. My point, though, is the arb process. The arb process has continually and systematically devalued middle relievers.

 

The arb process sucks. I don't think the Sox are intentionally screwing with it though.

[notin]

In my view , the trend of not using your best reliever to close , whatever the reasoning may be , is misguided , wrong and just not smart . Whether it is done to best win games , save money or any other reason , it is not a good idea . Blown saves are becoming a nightly occurrence around baseball . Just take a look . If you have an elite closer , and there are not too many of them , use him to get those elusive final outs . That is why the Yankees signed guys like Britton and Ottavino . So they could have Chapman for the ninth . Too many people want to re-invent the wheel .

 

 

Again, not all of those blown saves happen in the ninth.

 

Actually this year we’ve seen a few surprises in the closing role with pitchers like Kirby Yates, Luke Jackson and the return of Greg Holland...

[Bellhorn04]

In my view , the trend of not using your best reliever to close , whatever the reasoning may be , is misguided , wrong and just not smart . Whether it is done to best win games , save money or any other reason , it is not a good idea . Blown saves are becoming a nightly occurrence around baseball . Just take a look .

 

Are you quite sure there are more blown saves in 2019 than in previous years?

[notin]

Are you quite sure there are more blown saves in 2019 than in previous years?

 

Or if it’s more a function of increased bullpen usage. If more relievers enter games with leads if 3 runs or less, more will be credited with blown saves, regardless of the inning...

[dgalehouse]

Are you quite sure there are more blown saves in 2019 than in previous years?

 

I don't know the answer to that . I do know that there are plenty of blown saves so far this year . I'm not the smartest guy in the room, but I know what I like . When it comes to bullpens, I like a lights out closer , a good set up man , a couple of good 6th and 7th inning guys , a good lefty and a long reliever . Everyone knowing their role . It is a tried and true system for success . I would not mess with that .

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know the answer to that . I do know that there are plenty of blown saves so far this year . I'm not the smartest guy in the room, but I know what I like . When it comes to bullpens, I like a lights out closer , a good set up man , a couple of good 6th and 7th inning guys , a good lefty and a long reliever . Everyone knowing their role . It is a tried and true system for success . I would not mess with that .

 

Well, the 2019 Red Sox are a pretty good test case for you. You could keep track of how many games we've lost because of this new-fangled bullpen strategy. I can't recall any glaring examples so far myself.

[dgalehouse]

Well, the 2019 Red Sox are a pretty good test case for you. You could keep track of how many games we've lost because of this new-fangled bullpen strategy. I can't recall any glaring examples so far myself.

 

We have lost a few . Actually, we have not done too badly so far , compared to some other teams . However , last year on this date , we were in first place , 18 games over .500 , and Kimbrel already had 15 saves . This year , we are in third place , 2 games over .500 , and 6 games behind the injury riddled Yankees . And I'm not sure who our closer even is . I do realize that there are other reasons for this situation. But even when it comes to something as simple as Mookie leading off , why look to change something that is working so well ? To me , it just doesn't make sense .

[dgalehouse]

I watched the end of the Cubs / Phillies game last night . The Phils took a 2 -1 lead into the bottom of the ninth . They brought in Juan Nicasio to close it . I thought , there is no way this jabroni will not blow it . You didn't even have to look , you just knew . Sure enough. Minutes later it was over . 3 - 2 .Cubs win . That is happening a lot .

[mvp 78]

Nicasio's gave up zero earned runs in his previous 10 outings.

 

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2019/5/21/18635104/your-closer-juan-nicasio-cubs-3-phillies-2

 

To be fair, this was a tough spot for Nicasio. He was never intended to be more than a back-of-the-bullpen option, but with Hector Neris, Adam Morgan, Seranthony Dominguez, and Pat Neshek (he must have really tired himself out warming up on Monday) all apparently unavailable, he was the only option left.

[dgalehouse]

Not sure what you are even talking about . Blew a late the inning before ????? Did you see the game ? The Cubs had a 1 - 0 lead . The Phils scored 2 in the 7th , to go up 2 - 1 . The Cubs won it with 2 in the 9th off of Nicasio . My point is about blown saves .

[mvp 78]

Not sure what you are even talking about . Blew a late the inning before ????? Did you see the game ? The Cubs had a 1 - 0 lead . The Phils scored 2 in the 7th , to go up 2 - 1 . The Cubs won it with 2 in the 9th off of Nicasio . My point is about blown saves .

 

After saying "When it comes to bullpens, I like a lights out closer , a good set up man , a couple of good 6th and 7th inning guys , a good lefty and a long reliever . Everyone knowing their role . It is a tried and true system for success . I would not mess with that ." You called the guy a jabroni and said that you knew he'd blow the save. I was just pointing out the reasons the Phils used him in that situation. You'd like a lights out closer, but there really aren't that many around. Kimbrel was definitely not lights out during the playoffs either.

[dgalehouse]

Another scene from last night in MLB . The Braves took a 3 - 1 lead into the bottom of the ninth in San Fran . The immortal Luke Jackson promptly gave up three runs and the ballgame . This has happened a lot . Closing ain't easy . Even though some refuse to see it .

[mvp 78]

Another scene from last night in MLB . The Braves took a 3 - 1 lead into the bottom of the ninth in San Fran . The immortal Luke Jackson promptly gave up three runs and the ballgame . This has happened a lot . Closing ain't easy . Even though some refuse to see it .

 

Now you're just listing off teams with s***** closers? I guess I don't see the point.

[dgalehouse]

Now you're just listing off teams with s***** closers? I guess I don't see the point.

 

The point is ; you need a good closer . And if you have one , don't use him in the 7th inning . Get a good set up man .

[Kimmi]

I’m sure some teams do this. And I’m sure there’s a bit of gamesmanship on the Sox behalf. Matt Barnes is an arb 1 this year coming off a great final year of prearb and he’s making $1.6 mil. Keeping him from 40 saves likely saves the Sox $1-$2 mil next year. That money can be put towards JDM. Listen, I’m not saying Cora is going to do this to the detriment of the squad, but if he gets good production out of all of his back end guys, it behooves the Sox of 2020 to have Barnes, Brasier and Workman split the saves.

 

I'm not sure who is on the arb panel deciding these players' salaries, but if they're basing the salaries on the number of saves a reliever gets, they need to be replaced.

[Kimmi]

Are you quite sure there are more blown saves in 2019 than in previous years?

 

My man Joe Posnanski had a very good article relating to the effect of closers on teams winning the game when leading entering the 9th inning. It turns out that the % of times a team wins the game in this situation has remained remarkably consistent throughout the years (95% overall, but he also broke it down into 1 run leads, 2 run leads, etc.), regardless of the changes to late inning pitching philosophy.

 

Here is his summary:

 

"But I just find it fascinating that no matter how much everyone tries to fiddle with the last inning of a game — closers, match-ups, specialists, pinch-hitters, whatever else — those overall ninth-inning win percentages just do not move. I would guess that teams with great closers having great years might help a team squeeze an extra win or two in a season. Maybe. But I do wonder if all of the ninth inning tactics are about as useful as rearranging furniture."

 

Full article here: https://joeposnanski.com/the-closer-you-get/

[Kimmi]

Or if it’s more a function of increased bullpen usage. If more relievers enter games with leads if 3 runs or less, more will be credited with blown saves, regardless of the inning...

 

Save percentage averages to date in 2019:

 

AL 70.65%

NL 68.71%

MLB 69.68%

 

In 2018:

 

AL 66.43%

NL 65.66%

MLB 66.05%

 

These count the dreaded blown saves in all innings.

[Kimmi]

Now you're just listing off teams with s***** closers? I guess I don't see the point.

 

Confirmation bias, I believe.

[bertha]

Will be fun follow

[FredLynn]

The point is ; you need a good closer . And if you have one , don't use him in the 7th inning . Get a good set up man .

 

I think the closer should be used in the late innings to pitch to the best hitters on the opposing team, even if its not the ninth inning.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not sure who is on the arb panel deciding these players' salaries, but if they're basing the salaries on the number of saves a reliever gets, they need to be replaced.

 

Arbitration is all about historical values. Relievers with great peripherals yet no counting stats get whalloped in the committee. When Betances went before the arb panel and asked for $5 mil in his first season, the Yankees won the arb case by successfully noting that he wasn't a closer and didn't have the save totals