The Pen

[moonslav59]

Bell , I am getting it . I understand exactly how you can get a blown save in a hold situation. But that is not the point . The point is that , in 24 save situations, they have 11 saves . That means they failed to get the save in 13 of those opportunities. It has nothing at all to do with hold opportunities. I can't make it any clearer than that . And I am not saying they suck . In fact , I like Barnes as the closer .

 

What if in 12 of those 13 "non saves" they got the first two guys out, and then Kimbrel was brought in to get the final out and was credited with the save. Did they really "fail" just because they did not get the save?

 

I'm not saying this happened, and it is very likely they did not do all that well in some of those 13 non saves, but to just assume they did poorly in all of them is not based on any data.

[dgalehouse]

What if in 12 of those 13 "non saves" they got the first two guys out, and then Kimbrel was brought in to get the final out and was credited with the save. Did they really "fail" just because they did not get the save?

 

I'm not saying this happened, and it is very likely they did not do all that well in some of those 13 non saves, but to just assume they did poorly in all of them is not based on any data.

 

I guess that is a remote possibility. At least you are addressing the situation. Everyone else keeps talking about blown saves in an earlier inning. I feel like I am butting my head against the wall . Or else I am just not explaining it properly. The bottom line is , one way or another , they have converted just 11 out of 24 save opportunities.

[moonslav59]

Here's some 2018 ninth inning numbers:

 

OPS Against (PAs)

.214 Hembree (24)

.367 Brasier (18)

.511 Kimbrel (210)

.546 Kelly (48)

.677 Thornburg (28)

.701 Barnes (24)

.776 Velazquez (48)

.792 Johnson (34)

 

2017

.243 Boyer (21)

.266 Kelly (31)

.446 Kimbrel (229)

.693 Scott (41)

.804 Abad (33)

.818 Workman (31)

.843 Barnes (44)

 

2019

.350 Walden (12)

.364 J Smith (11)

.490 Barnes (28)

.536 Hembree (8)

.705 Velazquez (11)

.724 Brasier (26)

.896 Brewer (14)

1.473 Thornburg (27)

 

Some very small sample sizes.

 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I guess that is a remote possibility. At least you are addressing the situation. Everyone else keeps talking about blown saves in an earlier inning. I feel like I am butting my head against the wall . Or else I am just not explaining it properly. The bottom line is , one way or another , they have converted just 11 out of 24 save opportunities.

 

Yes, I get your point. We're talking just the 9th inning.

 

How many 9th inning blown saves do they have?

 

24 save opportunities

11 saves

__ Hold?

__ blown saves?

 

Until we know the "hold" numbers in the 9th, we can't say they did poorly 13 times.

 

Where are you getting your data?

[Bellhorn04]

I guess that is a remote possibility. At least you are addressing the situation. Everyone else keeps talking about blown saves in an earlier inning. I feel like I am butting my head against the wall . Or else I am just not explaining it properly. The bottom line is , one way or another , they have converted just 11 out of 24 save opportunities.

 

OK let's just do Brasier. Maybe this will clarify what I'm talking about.

 

In 2018 Brasier had 0 saves, 10 holds and 2 blown saves.

In 2019 Brasier has 6 saves, 2 holds and 2 blown saves.

 

Now here's the important part:

 

3 of those 'blown saves' occurred when he entered the game in the 7th inning.

Only 1 of his blown saves occurred when he entered the game in the 9th.

 

Now do you see the issue?

[dgalehouse]

OK let's just do Brasier. Maybe this will clarify what I'm talking about.

 

In 2018 Brasier had 0 saves, 10 holds and 2 blown saves.

In 2019 Brasier has 6 saves, 2 holds and 2 blown saves.

 

Now here's the important part:

 

3 of those 'blown saves' occurred when he entered the game in the 7th inning.

Only 1 of his blown saves occurred when he entered the game in the 9th.

 

Now do you see the issue?

A save situation refers to the ninth inning. They have had 24 of those save situations. They have converted 11 of them . It has nothing to do with an earlier inning. I am only talking about what happened in a ninth inning save situation. If they were charged with a blown save in an earlier inning , it has nothing to do with this . Simply put , they have converted 11 out of 24 save situations.

[notin]

They have had 24 save opportunities. That means the ninth inning. That is all I am talking about . They have 11 saves out of those 24 opportunities. It has nothing at all to do with the eighth inning. Just the ninth inning save situation.

 

 

NO THEY DIDN’T.

 

There is no such stat as a blown hold. As a hold is basically a save situation before the ninth inning, failing to keep a hold is credited with a blown SAVE...

[notin]

A save situation refers to the ninth inning. They have had 24 of those save situations. They have converted 11 of them . It has nothing to do with an earlier inning. I am only talking about what happened in a ninth inning save situation. If they were charged with a blown save in an earlier inning , it has nothing to do with this . Simply put , they have converted 11 out of 24 save situations.

 

 

No.

 

A hold is a “save situation.”

 

Where are you getting this data?

[moonslav59]

OK let's just do Brasier. Maybe this will clarify what I'm talking about.

 

In 2018 Brasier had 0 saves, 10 holds and 2 blown saves.

In 2019 Brasier has 6 saves, 2 holds and 2 blown saves.

 

Now here's the important part:

 

3 of those 'blown saves' occurred when he entered the game in the 7th inning.

Only 1 of his blown saves occurred when he entered the game in the 9th.

 

Now do you see the issue?

 

Brasier only pitched in the ninth inning 5 times last year out of 34 appearances. None after 8/22/18.

 

7/9 We won 5-0 (Full IP)

7/10 We won 8-4 (Full IP-NO ERs by Brasier)

9/26 We lost 2-1 (Full IP- No ERs)

8/2 We won 15-7 (Full IP- 1 ER)

8/22 We won 10-4 (Full IP- 0 ER)

 

In 2019, He pitched just the 9th inning in 7 of 20 games. He also pitched the 8th as the final inning in losses twice (none of those were blown saves and both had 0 ERs)

 

9th Inning

4/3 We lost 6-3 (O ER in 1 IP)

4/7 We won 1-0 (O ER in 1 IP)

4/12 We won 6-4 (O ER in 2/3 IP)

4/19 We won 6-4 (O ER in 1 IP)

4/20 We won 6-5 (O ER in 1 IP)

(4/21 he pitched the 11th in that 4-3 win @ TB- O ER in 1 IP)

4/25 We won 7-3 (O ER in 1 IP)

5/2 We lost 6-4 (2 ER and 3 Runs in 1 IP for the loss & Blown Save)

 

I'm not seeing anything all that bad in the 9th, except his last 9th inning appearance.

[moonslav59]

A save situation refers to the ninth inning. They have had 24 of those save situations. They have converted 11 of them . It has nothing to do with an earlier inning. I am only talking about what happened in a ninth inning save situation. If they were charged with a blown save in an earlier inning , it has nothing to do with this . Simply put , they have converted 11 out of 24 save situations.

 

Maybe, if you tell us where you are getting your data, we can respond more accurately.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

No.

 

A hold is a “save situation.”

 

Where are you getting this data?

 

A hold is not a " save situation " . You don't get a save in that situation. In their careers , they have had just 24 actual save situations. They have converted 11 of them . They have had many more hold situations, but that is not the issue here . We are talking only about actual save situations.

[notin]

A hold is not a " save situation " . You don't get a save in that situation. In their careers , they have had just 24 actual save situations. They have converted 11 of them . They have had many more hold situations, but that is not the issue here . We are talking only about actual save situations.

 

 

No. A hold is basically a save but before the last inning. You don’t get a save, but you do get a blown save if you fail to get a hold.

 

Barnes and Brasier have combined for about 54IP in the ninth inning in their careers. So saying they had 24 ninth inning save chances in 54 career innings seems like a lot for two guys whose careers as closer is limited to 6 overlapping weeks...

[dgalehouse]

24 save opportunities is not a lot for a career . Look up Ryan Brasier on Baseball reference. Advanced pitching stats . Reliever pitching . It shows 10 save opportunities with six saves and four blown saves . 60 % save rate . Hold stats are listed separately. You can do the same for Barnes or anyone else .

[moonslav59]

24 save opportunities is not a lot for a career . Look up Ryan Brasier on Baseball reference. Advanced pitching stats . Reliever pitching . It shows 10 save opportunities with six saves and four blown saves . 60 % save rate . Hold stats are listed separately. You can do the same for Barnes or anyone else .

 

But, those blown saves listed may not have come in the 9th inning. (I bet most did not.)

[dgalehouse]

But, those blown saves listed may not have come in the 9th inning. (I bet most did not.)

 

Well , back to the previous point . He has had 10 save opportunities. He has 6 saves . What about the other four save opportunities? Holds are entirely separate.

[notin]

24 save opportunities is not a lot for a career . Look up Ryan Brasier on Baseball reference. Advanced pitching stats . Reliever pitching . It shows 10 save opportunities with six saves and four blown saves . 60 % save rate . Hold stats are listed separately. You can do the same for Barnes or anyone else .

 

 

Look up Barnes. It says he has three blown saves this year. I listed them out earlier in the thread and none were in the ninth inning.

 

The problem is, there is no such thing as a blown hold, so it is listed as a blown save. If you notice in the “elsewhere “ where holds are listed, there is nothing indicating how many were blown.

 

Brasier is also listed as having 2 blown saves. One of these was for Gardner’s grand slam in the 7th inning. A blown hold is listed as a blown save. Regardless of the inning...

[notin]

Well , back to the previous point . He has had 10 save opportunities. He has 6 saves . What about the other four save opportunities? Holds are entirely separate.

 

 

A “save opportunity” can become a hold. It just doesn’t become one until another reliever takes over. That’s probably why they get listed as blown saves; you can’t assume another reliever is going to pitch.

[S5Dewey]

The thing that's odd (and misleading) about "Holds" and "Blown Saves" is that a player doesn't get credit for a Hold unless he leaves with the team still ahead but he can get a blown save anytime.

 

If a pitcher comes in to start a clean inning in the 6th with a lead he doesn't get credited with a Hold if he holds the lead in the 6th, and another Hold if he holds the lead in the 7th, and a 3rd Hold if he holds the lead in the 8th. But if he blows that lead anytime he gets credited with a "blown save". There are a lot more opportunities for a pitcher to get a negative statistic (a/k/a a "blown save) than there is a positive statistic (a Save or a Hold). It's really an unfair comparison to compare a long reliever's Holds and Blown Saves and try to draw any conclusions from that data.

[dgalehouse]

Still confusing to me . Take Barnes, for example . What do they mean when they say he has had 14 career save opportunities? Obviously, he has had many more hold situations than 14 . So , the 14 refers only to actual save situations. Is that not right ?

[Jasonbay44]

I just want to show some appreciation for Marcus Walden. 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA. Dude has been amazing this year.

[SCM33]

I can't explain it any further. Stick with your numbers. Barnes and Brasier suck.

 

Sing it brother.

[SCM33]

I just want to show some appreciation for Marcus Walden. 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA. Dude has been amazing this year.

 

+1....

[Bellhorn04]

Sing it brother.

 

Barnes has been outf***ingstanding this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Still confusing to me . Take Barnes, for example . What do they mean when they say he has had 14 career save opportunities? Obviously, he has had many more hold situations than 14 . So , the 14 refers only to actual save situations. Is that not right ?

 

Denny, forget that and look through the game logs for Brasier for '18 and '19. There aren't even that many games you have to look through. Then you will see how those stats are f***ed up.

[SCM33]

Barnes has been outf***ingstanding this year.

 

The carriage will turn into a pumpkin.

[Bellhorn04]

The carriage will turn into a pumpkin.

 

Keep wishin'.

[dgalehouse]

My comments about save opportunities , etc . were mostly in reference to the proposition that Cora lacked faith in the bullpen . I do like Barnes . I see him as our best arm in the pen . Brasier , to me , is kind of iffy . Interesting that Cora opted for Workman today , rather than Brasier . Walden is a surprise . Not sure yet if he is for real .

[moonslav59]

Well , back to the previous point . He has had 10 save opportunities. He has 6 saves . What about the other four save opportunities? Holds are entirely separate.

 

If they weren't blown saves, they might not be bad, and you can blow a save with an unearned run as well.

[notin]

If they weren't blown saves, they might not be bad, and you can blow a save with an unearned run as well.

 

 

And a blown save isn’t always a loss...

[Maxbialystock]

This just in. Sox played 3 at home vs. probably the best team in MLB right now, and, it has to be said, the Sox did not impress.

 

Except in one area, the bullpen, which actually did pretty darn well, especially in comparison to the rotation. Porcello did pitch well in game 1--2 runs in 7 innings. The bullpen gave up 0 earned runs in 2 innings. In game 2 Velazquez gave up 5 runs in .1 inning, the bullpen 2 in 8.2. In game 3 the not so great Chris Sale gave up 3 runs in 5.1 innings, the bullpen 0 runs in 3.2 innings.

 

The lineup meanwhile just rolled over in the first two games and in the 3d game finally came thru--against Wade Miley. But just barely.

 

Big defensive edge to the Astros in this series. Same goes for baserunning. I don't know which was worse in game 3, Devers getting picked off by a mile or Pearce not taking a good lead on a popup that sent the firstbaseman out into RF. Both players were simply brain dead.