The Pen

[moonslav59]

Nunez isn’t going to be the main piece for any type of acquisition. He sucks. The one way I could see him being dealt is to balance salary, but another piece would have to go with him.

 

I could see the Sox tacking Ockimey and another prospect together with Nunez to get a soon to be FA reliever and balancing out the cash.

 

That's what I had in mind. I don't expect anyone wants Nunez and his salary at face value. Even, if we do a deal like what you suggest, we may still throw in some money to offset Nunez's overpay.

 

The tricky part is that when you try to acquire a decent pitcher getting paid more money than he's worth or more than a losing team is willing to pay, they are NOT looking to take salary back. They are looking to dump salary.

 

There may be just a very few teams willing to take on $3-6M of Nunez's salary just so they can take a flyer on Ockimey or Dalbec or some other promising prospect. I'd love to find a deal like this that might add $2-6M to our summer spending budget, so we can then acquire a better, more costly pitcher afterwards and stay under the $40M line.

 

[fxkatt]

Well, we need relief pitchers because our starters average about 5 1/3 innings--when they pitch, which isn't all that often.

 

Why are these next five games starting to weigh on me, when on Monday I was looking forward to good things. Maybe it's the gloomy northeast weather, or maybe the loss of Moreland, maybe because both Cleveland and the Yanks are tough outs, and we seem a little thin.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as using Eovaldi as a closer : Have we backtracked on the idea that you don't want to spend big bucks on a closer ? Have we backtracked on the idea that a starter is more important / valuable than a closer? Have we backtracked on the idea that the bullpen is fine ? Just asking .

 

There is no 'we' here, Denny. Everyone has own their views.

 

I always assumed that if this cut-rate bullpen didn't get it done, DD would make a move or two.

[notin]

That's what I had in mind. I don't expect anyone wants Nunez and his salary at face value. Even, if we do a deal like what you suggest, we may still throw in some money to offset Nunez's overpay.

 

The tricky part is that when you try to acquire a decent pitcher getting paid more money than he's worth or more than a losing team is willing to pay, they are NOT looking to take salary back. They are looking to dump salary.

 

There may be just a very few teams willing to take on $3-6M of Nunez's salary just so they can take a flyer on Ockimey or Dalbec or some other promising prospect. I'd love to find a deal like this that might add $2-6M to our summer spending budget, so we can then acquire a better, more costly pitcher afterwards and stay under the $40M line.

 

 

Dalbec for Adam Conley?

[mvp 78]

Dalbec for Adam Conley?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14457&position=P

 

Disgusting. No thank you. That'd be a horrible trade.

[harmony]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14457&position=P

 

Disgusting. No thank you. That'd be a horrible trade.

Notin deserves respect on this forum for being realistic.

 

Bobby Dalbec has posted a .241/.362/.456/.817 line in 188 plate appearances at Double A this year as the thirdbaseman approaches his 24th birthday in a month:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa857701&position=3B

 

FanGraphs lists Dalbec's future value at only 40+.

Edited May 29, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski hasn’t.

 

He’s sticking to the idea you don’t need a big money closer in October if you build a deep enough rotation, which has been his MO for most of his career. Spend on the starters - skimp on the bullpen.

 

Personally I don’t think you need a big name closer who costs lots of money and only handles the ninth inning. But you do need relief pitchers who don’t suck...

 

I agree, and the idea of Eovaldi as a multi-inning RP'er in the playoffs looks very appealing... again.

 

That being said, I still think we acquire a decent to solid pen arm this summer.

[dgalehouse]

There are a number of N.L. contenders who need bullpen help. Getting a good reliever may not be so easy without giving up more than you might like .

[mvp 78]

Notin deserves respect on this forum for being realistic.

 

Bobby Dalbec has posted a .241/.362/.456/.817 line in 188 plate appearances at Double A this year as the thirdbaseman approaches his 24th birthday in a month:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa857701&position=3B

 

FanGraphs lists Dalbec's future value at only 40+.

 

Yes, realism is only found in people that agree with yourself.

 

Dalbec's value as a masher in AA is higher than what Adam Conley (29 year old mop up reliever on a s***** Marlins team) is. Steamer and depth charts have him as a 0 fWAR guy. Dalbec is worth more than that and it's not even up for discussion. Conley is no better than a AAAA reliever. Sox got Addison Reed for spare parts that were far less than a straight up trade for Dalbec. You're vastly overstating what it would take to land some mediocre bullpen arms. But I'm not being realistic though because my opinion conflicts with yours.

[notin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14457&position=P

 

Disgusting. No thank you. That'd be a horrible trade.

 

What do you expect to get for Dalbec? Or what other better trade chip should the Sox part with?

[notin]

Yes, realism is only found in people that agree with yourself.

 

Dalbec's value as a masher in AA is higher than what Adam Conley (29 year old mop up reliever on a s***** Marlins team) is. Steamer and depth charts have him as a 0 fWAR guy. Dalbec is worth more than that and it's not even up for discussion. Conley is no better than a AAAA reliever. Sox got Addison Reed for spare parts that were far less than a straight up trade for Dalbec. You're vastly overstating what it would take to land some mediocre bullpen arms. But I'm not being realistic though because my opinion conflicts with yours.

 

Conley has more control than Reed had. Want a spare part potential free agent deal?

 

Greg Holland? Cody Allen? For who?

[moonslav59]

Maybe the costs have risen, but in recent years, we got...

 

Eovaldi for Beeks

 

Addison Reed for 3 scrubs (Bautista, Nogodek & Callahan)

 

Is Dalbec any worse of a prospect than these were?

[mvp 78]

Last year, the Cubs got Brandon Kintzler for a 23 year old A ball pitcher that was nowhere near regarded like Dalbec.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Just offer Craig 3 at 39 with bonuses reaching 50 ??

[mvp 78]

Conley has more control than Reed had. Want a spare part potential free agent deal?

 

Greg Holland? Cody Allen? For who?

 

Adam Conley is a step up from who on this staff exactly? He's worse than Hembree or Workman. He's basically a AAAA guy. Those guys are irrelevant. Their "control" doesn't matter. Who cares if you have an additional 2 years on a AAAA guy? You can get randos like Walden to come up and give you the same production.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know how much just one GM values Dalbec or Ockimey or Scherf or anyone not named D Hernandez, Chatham, Casas or Duran.

[mvp 78]

People stanning for goddamn Adam Conley is a new low for this place. He's a f***ing nobody.

[harmony]

Yes, realism is only found in people that agree with yourself.

 

Dalbec's value as a masher in AA is higher than what Adam Conley (29 year old mop up reliever on a s***** Marlins team) is. Steamer and depth charts have him as a 0 fWAR guy. Dalbec is worth more than that and it's not even up for discussion. Conley is no better than a AAAA reliever. Sox got Addison Reed for spare parts that were far less than a straight up trade for Dalbec. You're vastly overstating what it would take to land some mediocre bullpen arms. But I'm not being realistic though because my opinion conflicts with yours.

Addision Reed came with only three months of team control when the Red Sox acquired the reliever from the Mets on July 31, 2017, for Stephen Nogosek, Gerson Bautista and Jamie Callahan:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reedad01.shtml#all_transactions_other

 

Adam Conley comes with three years of team control beyond this season.

 

Brandon Kintzler came with a year and two months of team control on July 31, 2018, when the Cubs acquired the reliever from the Washington Nationals for Jhon Romero.

Edited May 29, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

Last year, the Cubs got Brandon Kintzler for a 23 year old A ball pitcher that was nowhere near regarded like Dalbec.

 

Just how well regarded is Dalbec? He’s a three-true-outcome guy in the minors. His future is probably a Russ Branyan who has the defensive skills to stay at third.

 

And how is Kintzler (2.3 career fWAR at age 34) a better pitcher than Conley (3.0 career fWAR at age 29)?

[moonslav59]

I'm not an expert on the talent of pitchers on other teams, but here are some pitchers who are off to a pretty good start, this year, and are on teams that may be sellers this summer:

 

Pitcher- Team- WHIP- K/9

Alex Colome CWS 0.55/8.3

Will Smith SFG 0.77/13.1

Shane Greene DET 0.83/9.8

Trevor Gott SFG 0.83/9.4

Felix Pena LAA 0.84/9.4

Blaine Hardy DET 0.91/3.9

Jake Diekman KCR 0.91/13.3

Sam Dyson SFG 0.92/9.0

Ken Giles TOR 0.97/14.1

Hansel Robles LAA 0.99/9.3

Sam Gaviglio TOR 1.00/8.8

R. Stephenson CIN 1.00/12.6

Joe Biagini TOR 1.07/8.1

Ty Buttrey LAA 1.08/11.4 (Top 10 in RP'er fWAR)

 

Possible sellers this summer:

AZ: Yoan Lopez 0.81/6.0

CLE: Brad Hand 0.91/13.5

NYM: Seth Lugo 1.00/11.8, Edwin Diaz 1.05/14.3

 

Note: this list is based soley on the top WHIP RP'ers with 20+ IP this year. I'm not saying any of these guys are a good fit or can be acquired.

 

[harmony]

Maybe the costs have risen, but in recent years, we got...

 

Eovaldi for Beeks

 

Addison Reed for 3 scrubs Bautista, Nogodek & Callahan)

 

Is Dalbec any worse of a prospect than these were?

Hey! Gerson Bautista was later traded for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano.

 

To be precise, the New York Mets traded Bautista, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Diaz, Cano and cash.

[moonslav59]

Hey! Gerson Bautista was later traded for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano.

 

To be precise, the New York Mets traded Bautista, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Diaz, Cano and cash.

 

 

...and Beeks is a top 10 fWAR RP'er for the Rays.

 

4. Buttrey 1.1

 

9. Beeks 0.8

 

10. Walden 0.8

 

[Kimmi]

Maybe we can add Keuchel and use Eovaldi as a closer.

 

I would not use Eovaldi as a closer during the regular season unless health reasons dictated he be moved to the pen.

[Kimmi]

Something has to be done with out pen. Right now it is a pack of pigs.

 

Not really.

[Kimmi]

Add them both. One is available to everyone and we already have the other...

 

I was actually leaning more towards neither.

[moonslav59]

I would not use Eovaldi as a closer during the regular season unless health reasons dictated he be moved to the pen.

 

I agree, but if we picked up a solid starter, I might consider it.

 

I would not seek a starter just to make Eovaldi our closer.

[Kimmi]

He sucked last night, but he did help win a ring last year, STORKSHIT.

 

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 35m35 minutes ago

 

When Brasier throws his fastball or slider, and they stay out of the middle of the zone (i.e., fastballs up, sliders down), batters are 3 for 51 against him this year. When they leak to the middle of the zone batters are 9 for 18 with 4 home runs and a double.

 

 

Location, location, location.

[Kimmi]

Chris Cotillo‏Verified account @ChrisCotillo 3h3 hours ago

 

I think the preconceived notions people had about the bullpen make nights like tonight look way worse. The Sox could use another arm, though. This plan leans too heavily on Barnes.

 

Like I've said, there's 4 A-team RPs (Barnes, Brasier, Workman, Walden), Hembree in the middle, then B-team: Lakins/Velazquez. If someone he trusts is unavailable, not much depth.

 

 

^^Spot on tweet by Cotillo.

[Kimmi]

Also:

 

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 25m25 minutes ago

 

The Red Sox bullpen has 1.6 shutdowns to every meltdown, which ranks 16th, their win probability added is 0.86, which ranks 12th, and a 4.12 FIP, which ranks 10th. Middle of the road. Problem is the Yankees, Astros, Rays, Twins, and Guardians have each been considerably better.

 

 

I think we were in a very similar situation last year - middle of the pack.

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Cotillo‏Verified account @ChrisCotillo 3h3 hours ago

 

I think the preconceived notions people had about the bullpen make nights like tonight look way worse. The Sox could use another arm, though. This plan leans too heavily on Barnes.

 

Like I've said, there's 4 A-team RPs (Barnes, Brasier, Workman, Walden), Hembree in the middle, then B-team: Lakins/Velazquez. If someone he trusts is unavailable, not much depth.

 

^^Spot on tweet by Cotillo.

 

He's basically saying the pen isn't as bad as some are making it out to be, but it's not quite good enough.