The Pen

[harmony]

IMO, unless there is a glaring hole, or a deal comes along that you just can't pass us, it is usually better to wait a few months into the season, then re-assess. Our team looks really good. Our bullpen might end up being surprisingly good. It might turn out that we need a SP or a 1B rather than a reliever. We'll have a better idea in July.

It could be worse.

 

The Seattle Mariners jettisoned the top five fWAR producers from last season's bullpen, including the All World Edwin Diaz:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

The Seattle bullpen ranked fifth in the league in fWAR last year but is projected to finish 14th this year, three slots behind the Red Sox at No. 11:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

[Kimmi]

That was just one bad game as it turned out, fortunately. Imagine what will happen if the pen blows 2 games the first week of the season.

 

I can imagine.

 

I understand people's concerns about our pen.

 

I sincerely think it will be good enough to get us where we need to go.

[Kimmi]

Not to worry. According to Mark Wohlers , a poor reliever will only blow three more games than an elite one . So , if we do blow two games in the first week , we will have pretty much gotten that out of the way early . Probably only one more to go the rest of the way . We should be okay with that .

 

There you go. That's the right way to look at it!

[Kimmi]

Opening Day 2018 made it hard to imagine the subsequent 17-1 run. On that note Joe Kelly made his first appearance as a Dodger this week. Gave up a run, hit, 2 walks and 2 wild pitches in one inning. Afterwards in the clubhouse he declared himself fully ready for the season !

 

Ha. Good ole Joe Kelly.

 

He will probably dominate out of the pen this year.

[Kimmi]

Your bullpen might be surprisingly good? I guess there's always a chance, but you and I both know the chances are infinitesimally small

 

No, we don't know the chances will be be that small.

 

As I've said before, the best relievers often come out of nowhere.

 

Prepare to be shocked.

[Kimmi]

It could be worse.

 

The Seattle Mariners jettisoned the top five fWAR producers from last season's bullpen, including the All World Edwin Diaz:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

 

The Seattle bullpen ranked fifth in the league in fWAR last year but is projected to finish 14th this year, three slots behind the Red Sox at No. 11:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

 

It could be a lot worse, if you ask me.

 

I just don't have the concerns about our BP that most Sox fans have.

 

In Cora We Trust. Maybe Dave too.

[moonslav59]

It could be a lot worse, if you ask me.

 

I just don't have the concerns about our BP that most Sox fans have.

 

In Cora We Trust. Maybe Dave too.

 

I'm concerned about our pen, but I'm feeling better about this team in March than I have in any other year for over a decade.

 

As I said last summer, Cora is the best Sox manager I have ever seen.

 

We have a great offense, a very nice defense, a very solid rotation and decent base running skills. Our pen looks to be about average.

 

I understand why the focus is usually on the team's weakest link, but our team is rock solid.

[notin]

Your bullpen might be surprisingly good? I guess there's always a chance, but you and I both know the chances are infinitesimally small

 

 

How good does it have to be?

 

 

It’s not like we finished 8 games out last year or lost in the ALDS or had some other equally sad end to our season...

Edited March 3, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

How good does it have to be?

 

 

It’s not like we finished 8 games out last year or lost in the ALDS or had some other equally sad season

 

Our pen would have to drop off a cliff to make up for 8 games.

[notin]

I'm concerned about our pen, but I'm feeling better about this team in March than I have in any other year for over a decade.

 

.

 

 

I’m concerned about the bullpen, but probably not as worried as Dombrowski, who will possibly get fired if it’s half as disastrous as jacko thinks it will be...

[Kimmi]

I'm concerned about our pen, but I'm feeling better about this team in March than I have in any other year for over a decade.

 

As I said last summer, Cora is the best Sox manager I have ever seen.

 

We have a great offense, a very nice defense, a very solid rotation and decent base running skills. Our pen looks to be about average.

 

I understand why the focus is usually on the team's weakest link, but our team is rock solid.

 

Agreed. If ever there was a team that has a great chance to repeat as WS Champs, this team is it.

 

If it turns out that our pen needs some help, Dombrowski will get the help the team needs.

[harmony]

Agreed. If ever there was a team that has a great chance to repeat as WS Champs, this team is it.

 

If it turns out that our pen needs some help, Dombrowski will get the help the team needs.

One FanGraphs measure has the Red Sox fourth in projected WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

A year ago the defending World Series champion Houston Astros were the apparent favorites to repeat ... by a significant margin:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

[Bellhorn04]

One FanGraphs measure has the Red Sox fourth in projected WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

A year ago the defending World Series champion Houston Astros were the apparent favorites to repeat ... by a significant margin:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

 

All the more reason to like our position. We're underdogs, like the Patriots were.

[FredLynn]

Agreed. If ever there was a team that has a great chance to repeat as WS Champs, this team is it.

 

If it turns out that our pen needs some help, Dombrowski will get the help the team needs.

 

I think that the pen is suspect. I am surprised that DD didn't make a move to improve it. Its the one area that is likely to stand between now and a deep run in the playoffs IMO. The rest of the team is very good....but the pen....??

[vegasbob]

As we know, before the 162nd game is played there will be 45 to 50 players used in games by the Sox. We can guess very closely on the first 25, and the 7-9 who will play and wait in Pawtucket, but who are the other 13-16 guys ?

Obviously we don't know and will have to let that unfold. In 2018 , three of those were Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovoldi and Steve Pearce. The point being that Dombrowski's skill will come in finding those guys when needed . The current bullpen is OK for now, but I bet we'll see a modified crew come September.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that the pen is suspect. I am surprised that DD didn't make a move to improve it. Its the one area that is likely to stand between now and a deep run in the playoffs IMO. The rest of the team is very good....but the pen....??

 

The pen is a question mark until we see it in action. To say that DD didn't make a move is not quite accurate though, because he made a bunch of dumpster dives.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox were an absolute unstoppable juggernaut last season . One would think they would be the favorites to repeat . Yet , they are not . The reason is our lackluster ( to be charitable) off season . The Vegas oddsmakers and the various pundits are looking at the same bullpen that I have been berated for questioning. And they are questioning it .

[Kimmi]

One FanGraphs measure has the Red Sox fourth in projected WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

A year ago the defending World Series champion Houston Astros were the apparent favorites to repeat ... by a significant margin:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

 

As I posted previously, we have the Yankees and the Astros exactly where we want them.

[Kimmi]

I think that the pen is suspect. I am surprised that DD didn't make a move to improve it. Its the one area that is likely to stand between now and a deep run in the playoffs IMO. The rest of the team is very good....but the pen....??

 

The pen is suspect only because it is largely unknown. Being unknown does not necessarily mean bad or even mediocre.

 

I am also surprised that Dombrowski did not make a move to improve the pen, but I am not disappointed in the fact that he didn't.

 

The rest of our team is good enough that if they stay relatively healthy and perform to reasonable expectations, we will make a deep run into the postseason.

[harmony]

Jenrry Mejia will lead the Red Sox in saves this year.

 

Or not.😋

[Larry Cook]

Jenrry Mejia will lead the Red Sox in saves this year.

 

Or not.😋

 

He pitched the other day and his stuff was not bad.

 

This would be interesting if it happens,

 

I always thought our saves leader is the guy pitching for San Diego right now. Where we send chavis and two prospects to San Diego for him.

[moonslav59]

As we know, before the 162nd game is played there will be 45 to 50 players used in games by the Sox. We can guess very closely on the first 25, and the 7-9 who will play and wait in Pawtucket, but who are the other 13-16 guys ?

 

Only 15 players had more than 75 PAs and 15 players had more than 30 IP.

 

Two of the 15 batters were HRam (195 PAs) and Kinsler (143). One was Swihart (207).

 

Three of the pitchers were:

 

74 IP Pom 6.08

66 IP Kelly 4.39

62 IP Kimbrel 2.74

 

Here's my guess on how the 2019 team 6400 or so PAs might be divided up:

 

680 Betts

680 Beni

640 JD

640 Bogey

580 JBJ

540 Devers

350 Moreland

350 Pedey

350 Nunez

350 Holt

350 Vaz

300 Pearce

240 Leon

140 Chavis

80 Lin

50 Centeno

80 Travis & others

 

Here's how the 1450 or so IP might be split up:

190 Porcello

180 Sale

180 Price

160 ERod

160 Eovaldi

70 Johnson

70 Velazquez

65 Barnes

60 Brasier

60 Hembree

50 Wright

40 Thornburg

40 Workman

75 Poyner and others

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Only 15 players had more than 75 PAs and 15 players had more than 30 IP.

 

Two of the 15 batters were HRam (195 PAs) and Kinsler (143). One was Swihart (207).

 

Three of the pitchers were:

 

74 IP Pom 6.08

66 IP Kelly 4.39

62 IP Kimbrel 2.74

 

Here's my guess on how the 2019 team 6400 or so PAs might be divided up:

 

680 Betts

680 Beni

640 JD

640 Bogey

580 JBJ

540 Devers

350 Moreland

350 Pedey

350 Nunez

350 Holt

350 Vaz

300 Pearce

240 Leon

140 Chavis

80 Lin

50 Centeno

80 Travis & others

 

Here's how the 1450 or so IP might be split up:

190 Porcello

180 Sale

180 Price

160 ERod

160 Eovaldi

70 Johnson

70 Velazquez

65 Barnes

60 Brasier

60 Hembree

50 Wright

40 Thornburg

40 Workman

75 Poyner and others

 

 

 

350 out of pedrioa would be a win.

 

180 out of sale would be fantastic. Let’s hope that shoulder is up to the task!

 

In an average year, how many players do we put on the 60 dL? I think we should factor that, without knowing the specific players, in this year as well.

[cp176]

Anyone over worrying about Sale's shoulder, just likes to worry. How many times have know-nothings gone on and on about his strength, stamina, and mechanics. It has been a pathetic whine from those who have absolutely no clue what it means to be physically fit.

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone over worrying about Sale's shoulder, just likes to worry. How many times have know-nothings gone on and on about his strength, stamina, and mechanics. It has been a pathetic whine from those who have absolutely no clue what it means to be physically fit.

 

Nobody should ever question Chris Sale's ability, fitness, work ethic, intensity or any of those things. But the evidence does suggest that he has 'durability' issues that are out of his control and that require his use to be managed carefully, don't you think?

[moonslav59]

350 out of pedrioa would be a win.

 

180 out of sale would be fantastic. Let’s hope that shoulder is up to the task!

 

In an average year, how many players do we put on the 60 dL? I think we should factor that, without knowing the specific players, in this year as well.

 

Pedey's PA total was the hardest to project. I left Swihart off the list as the word is we will keep just 2 catchers. If we trade or cut Leon, I might add 50 PAs to Vaz and give Swihart 190 PAs.

 

On Sale, he still got 163 IP last year, counting the playoffs and had over 200 IP the three previous seasons. 180 might be low.

 

I think these players were on the 60-day last year:

 

Marco Hernandez

Carson Smith

Tyler Thornburg ?

Dustin Pedroia

Austin Maddox

[Bellhorn04]

On Sale, he still got 163 IP last year, counting the playoffs and had over 200 IP the three previous seasons. 180 might be low.

 

I don't think so.

[BillyWilliams]

Not to worry. According to Mark Wohlers , a poor reliever will only blow three more games than an elite one . So , if we do blow two games in the first week , we will have pretty much gotten that out of the way early . Probably only one more to go the rest of the way . We should be okay with that .

 

That logic would only apply if you have only one poor reliever. If you have 3, then that would mean a 9 game swing.

[moonslav59]

I don't think so.

 

I think they limit Sale's inning, like they did last year, even before the injury.

 

175-185 is probably what he will get with no time on the DL.

[moonslav59]

That logic would only apply if you have only one poor reliever. If you have 3, then that would mean a 9 game swing.

 

Last year, our pen fWAR was 4.9, which placed 9th in MLB.

 

So, you are saying this year our fWAR might be -4.1? Last year, the worst pens were -2.1 (MIA) and -2.2 (KC), while the 3rd worst was only -0.6 (NYM).

 

Losing Kelly might be a wash. Losing Kimbrel will hurt, but not by 9 games.

 

Relief Only PAs against lost over the winter:

 

285 Kelly (.662 OPS against in 2018)

247 Kimbrel (.565)

104 Pomeranz (.823)

74 Cuevas (.933)

64 CSmith (.744)

40 Scott (1.333)

35 Haley (.952)

12 Beeks (1.000)

 

All we hear about is Kimbrel & Kelly, but losing the 320 PAs of the others is addition by subtraction, if these guys get more IP'd:

 

124 Brasier .482

265 Barnes .624

122 Wright .618

234 Velazquez .706

166 Johnson .723

167 Workman .705

260 Hembree .734

59 Walden .669

93 Poyner .770

 

We'd need better from this guy to make gains...

107 Thornburg .901