The Pen

[harmony]

From FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's list of speculative trades:

4. Mychal Givens to the Boston Red Sox for Bryan Mata.

 

Boston’s bullpen was a solid group in 2018, finishing fifth in FIP and ninth in bullpen WAR. But it’s a group that is now missing Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, two relievers who combined for 2.2 of the team’s 4.9 WAR. The Red Sox haven’t replaced that lost production, and while they talk about how they really think that Ryan Brasier is great, they already had him last year. Now he’ll throw more innings in 2019, but that will largely be balanced by him not actually being a 1.60 ERA pitcher.

 

The Red Sox have dropped to 22nd in the depth chart rankings for bullpens, and although ZiPS is more optimistic than the ZiPS/Steamer mix, it’s only by enough to get Boston to 18th.

 

The Orioles are one of the few teams who might possibly be willing to part with bullpen depth at this point in the season and Givens, three years from free agency, gives the Red Sox the extra arm they need. Mata is a fascinating player, but he’s erratic and Boston needs to have a little more urgency in their approach. The O’s have more time to sort through fascinatingly erratic pitchers like Mata and Tanner Scott.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/

[notin]

I’d trade Mata for Givens...

[harmony]

I’d trade Mata for Givens...

The more pressing issue is whether the Baltimore Orioles would trade Mychal Givens for Bryan Mata.

[moonslav59]

From FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's list of speculative trades:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/

 

Where was Boston's pen projected before 2018?

[moonslav59]

I’d trade Mata for Givens...

 

I assume you'd throw in Swihart, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Where was Boston's pen projected before 2018?

 

Probably in the 10-15 range.

[notin]

I assume you'd throw in Swihart, too.

 

 

Why?

[notin]

The more pressing issue is whether the Baltimore Orioles would trade Mychal Givens for Bryan Mata.

 

That sounds like a matter to be discussed with Dan Szymborski...

[FredLynn]

I assume you'd throw in Swihart, too.

 

And Wright. He deserves to play in Baltimore.

[harmony]

That sounds like a matter to be discussed with Dan Szymborski...

Folks already have in the comments below Dan Szymborski's post:

bosoxforlife

The Red Sox, and all of Red Sox Nation, dream that the team could acquire Mychal Givnes for Bryan Mata, actually rather than dream I think fantasize is closer to reality.

2

Reply

2 hours ago

tz

tz

Heck, I’d be thrilled getting Givens for Mata plus Chavis, or something to that effect.

keefer

If the Orioles only get Bryan Mata for Mychal Givens, Mike Ekias should be fired immediately.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/

Edited March 13, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Probably in the 10-15 range.

 

I bet it was 14-19.

[cp176]

If there are no changes made to that bullpen, it is very likely that Hernandez and Feltman are in it long before people think they are going to be and long before people seem think that they are ready to be.

[notin]

Has Feltman even pitched yet this spring?

[notin]

If there are no changes made to that bullpen, it is very likely that Hernandez and Feltman are in it long before people think they are going to be and long before people seem think that they are ready to be.

 

 

I hope they make changes.

 

Even if Hernandez and Feltman both make the bullpen on opening at, how many reliable arms do the Sox have?

 

Thornburg isn’t inspiring much confidence. Workman is Workman. With Brasier sidelined, Hembree is a frightening number two option. Johnson.... not my favorite subject. Brewer has had a rough spring and is a bizarre choice for “biggest off-season acquisition.”

 

There are still some available arms out there - notably Josh Fields - who won’t break the bank. And Kimbrel, who while unlikely, can’t be written out yet either. And maybe an out of options arm, although not sure what will be available. (I liked Frankie Montas, Yimi Garcia, and Luis Cessa as the most likely cuts. But Montas has probably pitched his way into the Oakland rotation. Garcia was kept over Fields. And Cessa won’t be acquired via trade and likely won’t clear waivers first either.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Cessa is going to be an interesting name. With Sevy and CC expected to hit the injured list, Cessa will make the team. Once they return, there’s a strong chance we move him if he’s beaten out as the last pen arm. I’d love to see what Cessa could do as a full time pen arm. His stuff is so good

[Slasher9]

I bet it was 14-19.

 

with such a middle of the road bullpen it's no wonder we didn't make the postseason last year.....oh wait.....nevermind.

[notin]

Cessa is going to be an interesting name. With Sevy and CC expected to hit the injured list, Cessa will make the team. Once they return, there’s a strong chance we move him if he’s beaten out as the last pen arm. I’d love to see what Cessa could do as a full time pen arm. His stuff is so good

 

 

Some feel German and Loasigia are ahead of Cessa for the rotation vacancies. The pen is also crowded, especially with Kahnle also out of options. And Chapman, Betances, Britton, Ottavino, Green and Holder occupying the other spots. The only way to keep him if the rotation is as predicted would be to demote Holder. Or trade/release Kahnle, which would be the stupidest solution of all.

 

If the Yankees do keep that arrangement, I think Cessa gets dealt before opening day. But for now, they probably want to (and should) hold him just in case someone else gets hurt.

 

Either way, I strongly suspect he isn’t dealt to Boston. Unless Team X trades for him and flips him there, which is not very likely...

Edited March 13, 2019 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

Some feel German and Loasigia are ahead of Cessa for the rotation vacancies. The pen is also crowded, especially with Kahnle also out of options. And Chapman, Betances, Britton, Ottavino, Green and Holder occupying the other spots. The only way to keep him if the rotation is as predicted would be to demote Holder. Or trade/release Kahnle, which would be the stupidest solution of all.

 

If the Yankees do keep that arrangement, I think Cessa gets dealt before opening day. But for now, they probably want to (and should) hold him just in case someone else gets hurt.

 

Either way, I strongly suspect he isn’t dealt to Boston. Unless Team X trades for him and flips him there, which is not very likely...

 

Right now, Cessa is pitching like his career depends on it. He has been starting games, so he's getting time vs regulars and to this point has been really good. Then again, spring stats in the early going are deceiving and I have said before not to read much into them. I do think he is best served in the pen. As I laid out before, if we use our 4 and 5 starters as noted, we will hit only one good team, so we could get away with 2 of Cessa, Loaisigia or German in the rotation for a short run and still hope our offense pounds the ball to a win. Once everyone comes back, I agree, the path to playing time will be rough for him, but not impossible. Assuming good health, here are the 12-13 pitchers expected on the squad

 

1. Severino

2. Paxton

3. Tanaka

4. Happ

5. Sabathia

6. Chapman

7. Betances

8. Britton

9. Ottavino

10. Green

11. Holder

12. ??

13. ??

 

Right now, 12 and 13 are Kahnle and Cessa just due to being out of options. Loaisiga and German would make the team out of ST in the spots for CC and Sevy. With the Yankees offensive depth, we might be able to survive with 12 position players

 

1. Sanchez

2. Romine

3. Voit/Bird

4. Torres

5. Lemahieu

6. Tulo

7. Andujar

8. Stanton

9. Gardner

10. Hicks

11. Judge

12. ???

 

This means we likely are going to keep Cessa around. After breaking it down, I think the Yanks are really going to give him a good shot this year. The true test to this roster will be when Didi and Montgomery come back in July. If everyone is healthy (doubtful) then we will have some really difficult decisions that will likely require us jettisoning 2 pitchers to add those guys back in

[notin]

So you’re assuming the Yankees are jettisoning one of Bird or Voit along with Ellsbury?

[jacksonianmarch]

The last position player slot will be an OFer, most likely. Boone has also said that only one of our 1b's will make the opening day roster. We can option either to the minors IIRC

[harmony]

The last position player slot will be an OFer, most likely. Boone has also said that only one of our 1b's will make the opening day roster. We can option either to the minors IIRC

Greg Bird has three options remaining and Luke Voit two.

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-new-york-yankees/

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, so we wont be carrying both to start the year. Lemahieu is the backup for the position, so we can either go Bird and use Lemahieu vs lefties or go Voit and just use Lemahieu there in an emergency. I honestly think Greg Bird needs a half season in the minors anyway. Get out of the lime light for a little bit, get his swing back and stay healthy. Then come up when natural attrition occurs

[harmony]

The Washington Nationals are expected to sign lefty reliever Tony Sipp to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $250,000 buyout of a 2020 mutual option for $2.5 million:

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/nationals-to-sign-tony-sipp.html

[Jack Flap]

The Washington Nationals are expected to sign lefty reliever Tony Sipp to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $250,000 buyout of a 2020 mutual option for $2.5 million:

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/nationals-to-sign-tony-sipp.html

 

 

Wow, that seems like a steal. Yet another guy who would have made sense for us passes by...oh well.

[moonslav59]

Wow, that seems like a steal. Yet another guy who would have made sense for us passes by...oh well.

 

This does seem puzzling.

[vegasbob]

Brian Johnson must be working on a new pitch. He's showing no sign of being ready to be effective.

[Slasher9]

Brian Johnson must be working on a new pitch. He's showing no sign of being ready to be effective.

lol. well played.

[cp176]

I hope they make changes.

 

Even if Hernandez and Feltman both make the bullpen on opening at, how many reliable arms do the Sox have?

 

Thornburg isn’t inspiring much confidence. Workman is Workman. With Brasier sidelined, Hembree is a frightening number two option. Johnson.... not my favorite subject. Brewer has had a rough spring and is a bizarre choice for “biggest off-season acquisition.”

 

There are still some available arms out there - notably Josh Fields - who won’t break the bank. And Kimbrel, who while unlikely, can’t be written out yet either. And maybe an out of options arm, although not sure what will be available. (I liked Frankie Montas, Yimi Garcia, and Luis Cessa as the most likely cuts. But Montas has probably pitched his way into the Oakland rotation. Garcia was kept over Fields. And Cessa won’t be acquired via trade and likely won’t clear waivers first either.)

 

If we don't add someone significant I think kind of based on what you have said here that it is even more likely that we see the two kids sooner as opposed to later. When you look at what we have for bullpen arms, what is not to like with these two strong armed kids? I would rather see either one of them as opposed to acquiring someone else off the junk pile.

[Kimmi]

Brian Johnson must be working on a new pitch. He's showing no sign of being ready to be effective.

 

LOL That was funny.

[TylerD]

Brian Johnson must be working on a new pitch. He's showing no sign of being ready to be effective.

 

The man doesn't want to stress himself out OK!!!!!!!!!!!