What would a Betts extension be?

[mvp 78]

im super guilty of being an ellipsis guy too...

 

Biting notin's style? Unacceptable!

[Bellhorn04]

It has been said that you have to spend money to make money . Of course there has to be a limit somewhere . You do eventually hit the point of diminishing returns. Since the owners are not about to open the books for us to see , we really can't be sure what it is . Certainty John Henry has been a much more willing spender than his counterparts.

 

And the luxury tax structure magnifies those diminishing returns.

 

If you go over the threshold 3 years in a row and then go over by more than 40 million in Year 3, each additional dollar you spend will actually cost you $1.95 with the tax and surtax. So you'll literally be paying double for everything.

[moonslav59]

And the luxury tax structure magnifies those diminishing returns.

 

If you go over the threshold 3 years in a row and then go over by more than 40 million in Year 3, each additional dollar you spend will actually cost you $1.95 with the tax and surtax. So you'll literally be paying double for everything.

 

To me, it's absurd to think Henry would be okay with paying Betts $36M a year but really pay him $70.2M a year.

 

The Sox HAVE to reset at some point- most likely after this year.

[Nick]

To me, it's absurd to think Henry would be okay with paying Betts $36M a year but really pay him $70.2M a year.

 

The Sox HAVE to reset at some point- most likely after this year.

 

This is how you reset after 2019. Starting point is $243M, luxury tax will be $208M in 2020. This is only if we intend to reset and rebuild quickly.

 

Pablo $18M

Xander $11M

Pearce/Moreland $13M

Porcello $20M

Nunez $5M

Holt $4M

 

total savings of say $70M. Now you're at $173M.

 

You trade Betts for 3 major league ready players and shed additional $20M off the books. Now you're at $153M.

 

Extend Chris Sale, delta of $18M, CB Payroll now at $171M.

 

Extend JD Hernandez, delta of $5M, CB Payroll is now at $176M.

 

You still have $32M to take care of arbitration raises. "Major outlay" is only for Chris Sale.

 

2020 Line Up

 

Beni, Devers, JD, JBJ, Pedey, Dalbec, Chavis, Chatam/Lin, Vaz....you have money to sign a veteran for $5M-$8M range.

Pitching, Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi and Hernandez

 

Keep in mind that we'll get quality in return from Betts trade.

 

 

2021 Line Up You offer Betts $40M per year, you've reset, will stay below the last threashold, penalized at 20%, CBA will expire. Resign JBJ also.

 

Beni, Betts, JD, Devers, Pedey, JBJ, Lin, Vazquez, Dalbec, Chavis, player from Betts trade can fit in here....this will be a poten lineup

 

Pitching, Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi and Hernadez.

 

I'll take my chances in 2020 with a wild card birth. Starting pitching will take us from there.

 

We're back in business in 2021.

[cp176]

Hey that’s been my thing through three forums now. I’ve even been called out for it on here before...

 

Never once did I call you out on this but I did want you to know that I was aware of you doing it a long long time ago. It is your style. I think that since the ellipsis usage tends to make one think in terms of never ending, it gives you ample opportunity to change your stance and apologize easier.

[Bellhorn04]

You trade Betts for 3 major league ready players and shed additional $20M off the books. Now you're at $153M.

 

But what team is going to trade 3 players for one year of Mookie, when they'll have to pay him about $30 million and he's made it clear he wants to be a free agent?

[Nick]

But what team is going to trade 3 players for one year of Mookie, when they'll have to pay him about $30 million and he's made it clear he wants to be a free agent?

 

Can we get one young, major league ready starting pitcher? I.m thinking either Dodgers or NL East team going all in.

[Kimmi]

That's not what I'm saying. Some of the posters here seem to suggest that billionaires made their money by being frugal. That's not really the case.

 

No, not being frugal, but being smart.

 

Which means not spending like drunken sailors just because they can afford to do so.

[Kimmi]

Interesting fact : there are only 8 pitchers in this decade that have achieved 120 victories ( or more). Rick Porcello , at 30 yrs old, is the youngest. Kershaw, King Felix and Gio Gonzalez are the next 3 youngest. Kershaw is opening the season not on the mound but on the IL, Hernandez is somewhat washed up in Seattle, and Gonzalez , at 33, got an incentive laden $3MM guaranteed, incentive laden minor league deal with the Yankees. Gio hasn't missed a start since June 2014, sporting a 3.75 ERA over that timeframe.

 

Don't dismiss big bat Rick P yet. He may not rank with Mookie or Chris as a premium signee but he should get some love as a mid rotation , starter after this year. The Sox, known for developing their young pitchers, could do worse than offer Porcello an extension. I hope Rick's mound slot comes up in Arizona so he can hit again.

 

Porcello, IMO, does not get the credit he deserves.

 

His durability and his ability to give 6+ innings on most starts seems very undervalued.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess Mookie has answered the question of this thread. The answer is 'Not happening!'

[Kimmi]

I guess Mookie has answered the question of this thread. The answer is 'Not happening!'

 

That's really too bad, too.

 

I wonder what Mookie's idea of 'being treated fairly' is.

[Nick]

That's really too bad, too.

 

I wonder what Mookie's idea of 'being treated fairly' is.

 

 

What is enough for him? Trade him after the season. Surely we can get one bona fide young player for him.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the only way Mookie gets traded is the same way Lester got traded - trade deadline 2020, if we're well out of it.

[a700hitter]

A wee bit of an exaggeration, of course.

 

Mookie is making $20 mill this year, and Pablo is on the LT payroll for $18.5 mill.

 

So next year we could pay Mookie $38.5 mill and still have the same LT payroll.

 

But as has been said, if we extend both Sale and Mookie, we're going to be paying them and Price $100 mill until the year 2022.

 

That leaves $100-120 mill for the rest of the team, assuming that JH is still willing to exceed the first LT cap by $20-40 mill, which remains to be seen of course.

I wonder how much Manny Machado cost himself by acting like a dick and saying stupid things during the post season.

[moonslav59]

Porcello, IMO, does not get the credit he deserves.

 

His durability and his ability to give 6+ innings on most starts seems very undervalued.

 

I'm not thinking his contract was a loss.

 

I'm glad he's been on our team and has another year to go.

 

[moonslav59]

I wonder how much Manny Machado cost himself by acting like a dick and saying stupid things during the post season.

 

IMO, he kept a few teams from even talking to his agent and perhaps driving up the cost.

[a700hitter]

I'm not thinking his contract was a loss.

 

I'm glad he's been on our team and has another year to go.

 

When he came to the Red Sox, he had a career 4.14 ERA. After 4 years with the Red Sox, his lifetime ERA is 4.26.

[notin]

When he came to the Red Sox, he had a career 4.14 ERA. After 4 years with the Red Sox, his lifetime ERA is 4.26.

 

His ERA with the Tigers was 4.30. His ERA in Boston is 4.19.

 

His ERA+ with the Tigers was 97. His ERA+ with the Red Sox is 106...

[a700hitter]

His ERA with the Tigers was 4.30. His ERA in Boston is 4.19.

 

His ERA+ with the Tigers was 97. His ERA+ with the Red Sox is 106...

My recollection was incorrect, but close enough.

[Northern Star]

I absolutely do not blame Mookie at all. Put yourself in his position. Why take $200 mil when your peers are getting much more than that? So sounds like either the Sox have to do a ridiculous overpay deal to keep him, or trade him as a rental. Not terribly upset about the latter, so long as the return is good. I already said I'd trade him tomorrow if that was what made the most sense at the time.

[notin]

My recollection was incorrect, but close enough.

 

 

But he’s gotten better in Boston, although I think a lot of that improvement was carried by a stellar 2016..

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not thinking his contract was a loss.

 

I'm glad he's been on our team and has another year to go.

 

 

Porcello has earned most of his contract, I think. He came up big in the playoff run this year. I'm glad he's with us another year as well.

[notin]

Porcello has earned most of his contract, I think. He came up big in the playoff run this year.

 

 

The Porcello contract might be the epitome of how these deals should (but rarely do) work out. He got the hefty pay raise and then the had the best seasons of his career. And he’ll probably start declining after tho season.

 

Too often those deals involve pay a player for what he did as opposed to what he’s going to do.

[harmony]

But he’s gotten better in Boston, although I think a lot of that improvement was carried by a stellar 2016..

Rick Porcello posted ERA+ of 87 in 2015, 142 in 2016, 98 in 2017, 102 in 2018 and 106 overall in four seasons with the Red Sox:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml

[a700hitter]

But he’s gotten better in Boston, although I think a lot of that improvement was carried by a stellar 2016..

His improvement has been minimal, and it was almost entirely attributable to his outlier 2016 season.

[notin]

His improvement has been minimal, and it was almost entirely attributable to his outlier 2016 season.

 

It certainly is a huge factor, but 3 of his 5 best ERA+ seasons have been in Boston...

[a700hitter]

It certainly is a huge factor, but 3 of his 5 best ERA+ seasons have been in Boston...

He is a 4.25 career ERA guy. In 10 years he finished with a sub-4 ERA 3 times (twice with the Tigers). He has been pretty consistent.

[moonslav59]

In his time with Boston, Porcello places...

 

(109 SP'ers with 400+ IP from 2016-2018)

 

5th in IP with 790

8th in wins with 59

15th K/BB at 4.27

29th in WAR 11.2

31st in WHIP 1.23

41st xFIP- at 94

48th xFIP at 3.99

52nd in ERA- at 95

 

 

[a700hitter]

In his time with Boston, Porcello places...

 

(109 SP'ers with 400+ IP from 2016-2018)

 

5th in IP with 790

8th in wins with 59

15th K/BB at 4.27

29th in WAR 11.2

31st in WHIP 1.23

41st xFIP- at 94

48th xFIP at 3.99

52nd in ERA- at 95

 

 

and a 4.19 ERA (even though he had a 3.15 ERA in 2016).

[Northern Star]

As a huge critic of the Porcello deal, I have to admit we got way more out of him than I thought we would.