What would a Betts extension be?

[cp176]

Chris Sale made his decision to stay in Boston very obvious. Rick Porcello has said as much. Stay tuned. No one here knows how any of this will shake out. It doesn't matter how much you think you know, you just don't know. I do not believe in the cliff. I continue to believe that even though the farm isn't as strong as when we had a few potential future HOF candidates it is in a lot better shape than the doomsayers think that it is. I absolutely believe that if the organization thinks that any very talented player that we have here has what it takes to keep us moving forward and truly want to be here, a real strong effort will be made by ownership to keep them here. It is more than about the money.

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Sale made his decision to stay in Boston very obvious. Rick Porcello has said as much. Stay tuned. No one here knows how any of this will shake out. It doesn't matter how much you think you know, you just don't know. I do not believe in the cliff. I continue to believe that even though the farm isn't as strong as when we had a few potential future HOF candidates it is in a lot better shape than the doomsayers think that it is. I absolutely believe that if the organization thinks that any very talented player that we have here has what it takes to keep us moving forward and truly want to be here, a real strong effort will be made by ownership to keep them here. It is more than about the money.

 

The Sale deal definitely makes me feel pretty good about the team's direction the next few years.

[cp176]

The Sale deal definitely makes me feel pretty good about the team's direction the next few years.

 

Me too!

[moonslav59]

Chris Sale made his decision to stay in Boston very obvious. Rick Porcello has said as much. Stay tuned. No one here knows how any of this will shake out. It doesn't matter how much you think you know, you just don't know. I do not believe in the cliff. I continue to believe that even though the farm isn't as strong as when we had a few potential future HOF candidates it is in a lot better shape than the doomsayers think that it is. I absolutely believe that if the organization thinks that any very talented player that we have here has what it takes to keep us moving forward and truly want to be here, a real strong effort will be made by ownership to keep them here. It is more than about the money.

 

It sure feels nice knowing so many top players want to play for Boston.

 

Henry has created a winning organization that is the envy of every opposing GM, fan and player.

[Slasher9]

Me too!

 

me 3!

[Kimmi]

The Sale deal definitely makes me feel pretty good about the team's direction the next few years.

 

If Henry is willing to continue to pay those steep taxes, which I never thought he would, then the team might actually get by with a barren farm.

 

Not the smartest way to do baseball, but that's the bed that we've made.

[SCM33]

It’s possible a big part of the reason Eovaldi was signed was to get a veteran pitcher to replace Porcello’s production.

 

Next year, not only does the Bogarts/Porcello money leave the roster, but so does the $12.75 mill tied up in 1b, with the anticipation of Chavis or Dalbec in the wings in some capacity. It is possible that Bogaerts and Porcello get replaced by Chatham and Hernandez, but not likely. If Porcello is amenable to a reasonable (re: drastic) paycut, it is possible he returns and Chavis/Dalbec or Hernandez or both are dealt for a SS...

 

16M is probably more suited for the #4 slot with the way contracts are skyrocketing right now.

 

Rick Porcello is making 20M as a #3 SP right now, and that is an OLD contract. Eovaldi is making 16M on a NEW contract. They are going to have to spend 20-23 to have a real #3 SP, and what I mean by that....is someone that at least equals Porcellos production in market like Boston.

 

Johnny Cueto is making 21M

Yu Darvish is making 21M

Jordan Zimmerman is making 22M

 

A real number 3 is going to cost more than Eovaldis 16M. They paid him for his versatility, and his ability to change his role come playoff time. Not to be the #3 SP.

[moonslav59]

16M is probably more suited for the #4 slot with the way contracts are skyrocketing right now.

 

Rick Porcello is making 20M as a #3 SP right now, and that is an OLD contract. Eovaldi is making 16M on a NEW contract. They are going to have to spend 20-23 to have a real #3 SP, and what I mean by that....is someone that at least equals Porcellos production in market like Boston.

 

Johnny Cueto is making 21M

Yu Darvish is making 21M

Jordan Zimmerman is making 22M

 

A real number 3 is going to cost more than Eovaldis 16M. They paid him for his versatility, and his ability to change his role come playoff time. Not to be the #3 SP.

 

You chose all the best contracts for your position, so here are some from another side:

 

2014-15

$19M x 4 Shields (declined QO)

$14M x 4 Santana (declined QO)

$13M x 3 Liriano (declined QO)

 

2015-16

$18M x 5 Samardzija (QO)

$16M x 2 Lackey (QO)

$16M x 3 Kazmir

 

2016-17

$16M x 3 R Hill

$11M x 2 E Volquez

$9M x 3 I Nova

 

2017-18

$19M x 3 ACobb

$13M x 3 Chatwood

 

2018-2019

$17M x 2 Happ

$17M x 4 Eovaldi

$15M x 2 Morton

$10M x 3 Lynn

 

 

[SCM33]

You chose all the best contracts for your position, so here are some from another side:

 

2014-15

$19M x 4 Shields (declined QO)

$14M x 4 Santana (declined QO)

$13M x 3 Liriano (declined QO)

 

2015-16

$18M x 5 Samardzija (QO)

$16M x 2 Lackey (QO)

$16M x 3 Kazmir

 

2016-17

$16M x 3 R Hill

$11M x 2 E Volquez

$9M x 3 I Nova

 

2017-18

$19M x 3 ACobb

$13M x 3 Chatwood

 

2018-2019

$17M x 2 Happ

$17M x 4 Eovaldi

$15M x 2 Morton

$10M x 3 Lynn

 

What does 6 years ago have to do with next year? Market has changed, significantly. Most of those guys you listed are either done with baseball, or should be done with baseball. Or they were just straight up awful, some BRUTALLY bad......not exactly what we are looking for on a Championship Caliber team.

Edited March 25, 2019 by SCM33

[moonslav59]

What does 6 years ago have to do with next year? Market has changed, significantly. Most of those guys you listed are either done with baseball, or should be done with baseball. Or they were just straight up awful, some BRUTALLY bad......not exactly what we are looking for on a Championship Caliber team.

 

It's a record of what pitchers were signed for who were expected to be a 3 or 4 starter.

 

Yes, the market has changed, and the data I presented shows that.

[SCM33]

It's a record of what pitchers were signed for who were expected to be a 3 or 4 starter.

 

Yes, the market has changed, and the data I presented shows that.

 

The data from 6 years ago is irrelevant to Nathan Eovaldi and the price of a #3 SP in Boston next year. If anything, you proved my point that they will have to pay EVEN MORE to get a quality #3 SP next year, and not one of the shitbums you have just listed from the previous 6 years.

[notin]

16M is probably more suited for the #4 slot with the way contracts are skyrocketing right now.

 

Rick Porcello is making 20M as a #3 SP right now, and that is an OLD contract. Eovaldi is making 16M on a NEW contract. They are going to have to spend 20-23 to have a real #3 SP, and what I mean by that....is someone that at least equals Porcellos production in market like Boston.

 

Johnny Cueto is making 21M

Yu Darvish is making 21M

Jordan Zimmerman is making 22M

 

A real number 3 is going to cost more than Eovaldis 16M. They paid him for his versatility, and his ability to change his role come playoff time. Not to be the #3 SP.

 

Well, none of Cueto, Darvish and Zimmermann were signed to be mid-rotation starters, and each were typically good for 4-5 fWAR at the time they signed their contracts. That these pitchers may pitch more like mid-rotation starters now is more of a cautionary tale about free agency than a real price point for mid-rotation talent. These guys we’re all signed to be aces or #1 pitchers; they just aren’t working out that way anymore and may not ever again...

[SCM33]

Well, none of Cueto, Darvish and Zimmermann were signed to be mid-rotation starters, and each were typically good for 4-5 fWAR at the time they signed their contracts. That these pitchers may pitch more like mid-rotation starters now is more of a cautionary tale about free agency than a real price point for mid-rotation talent. These guys we’re all signed to be aces or #1 pitchers; they just aren’t working out that way anymore and may not ever again...

 

But thats what I am saying. The market has changed. Those are old contracts. They will need to spend more than 16M (Eovaldi) for a #3 SP on a Championship team.

[moonslav59]

But thats what I am saying. The market has changed. Those are old contracts. They will need to spend more than 16M (Eovaldi) for a #3 SP on a Championship team.

 

Some say Eovaldi was overpaid.

 

Sale's contract was a discount- not a FA, I know.

 

I see no evidence the market has spiked a lot from last year.

 

Alex Cobb got $19M. He's in the same class as Eovaldi & Happ. They got less.

Edited March 26, 2019 by moonslav59

[SCM33]

Some say Eovaldi was overpaid.

 

Sale's contract was a discount- not a FA, I know.

 

I see no evidence the market has spikes a lot from last year.

 

Alex Cobb got $19M. He's in the same class as Eovaldi & Happ. They got less.

 

He was overpaid, because he is not a #3!!!!! Thats what Ive been saying. The market is spiking, look at at this offseasons contracts. They only go up, not down. They always go up.

 

If Alex Cobb, with his 5-15 record, 4.90 ERA and 1.411 WHIP is your #3 SP.....then you suck. Hes never even thrown over 179 IP in a single year, hes never made 30 starts. We need better if we are championship material. You are arguing points with me, not realizing that you are in agreement.

[redsoxrules]

Porcello is not a 20 Mil pitcher. I'd pass on that. Take away his cy young season and his time with Boston has been meh. You don't pay someone ridiculous money just because they had ONE great season. I'd keep him on a deal similar to Eovaldi , that's it. Hes not worth anymore.

[SCM33]

Porcello is not a 20 Mil pitcher. I'd pass on that. Take away his cy young season and his time with Boston has been meh. You don't pay someone ridiculous money just because they had ONE great season. I'd keep him on a deal similar to Eovaldi , that's it. Hes not worth anymore.

 

If Porcello takes that money, Im in agreement. Hes a solid 3/4. Hes been seriveable. The second his agent starts talking about his Cy Young award though, then you know hes out of our price range. He was slightly overpaid in his original Redsox contract. No need to overpay him twice. Hes young though, only turning 30 this year.....he is going to want to get paid......4-6 year deal most likely.

[moonslav59]

He was overpaid, because he is not a #3!!!!! Thats what Ive been saying. The market is spiking, look at at this offseasons contracts. They only go up, not down. They always go up.

 

If Alex Cobb, with his 5-15 record, 4.90 ERA and 1.411 WHIP is your #3 SP.....then you suck. Hes never even thrown over 179 IP in a single year, hes never made 30 starts. We need better if we are championship material. You are arguing points with me, not realizing that you are in agreement.

 

I'm saying Cobb, Happ and Eovaldi are about the same. Cobb got more last year, so where's the "going up?"

[SCM33]

I'm saying Cobb, Happ and Eovaldi are about the same. Cobb got more last year, so where's the "going up?"

 

Well, first of all, they arent all the same. Cobb and Happ have been much better throughout their careers. Happ is much more established, Cobb has been much better than all 3 overall. Cobb gets hurt, so does Eovaldi. None of the 3 can throw 200 IP.

 

Eovaldis contract is evidence of the "going up" in comparison to those BETTER pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi was kind of a special case. Lots of apparent upside trading off with lots of risk.

 

It was a fat contract based on his career numbers and injuries but maybe not indicative of a trend.

[moonslav59]

Well, first of all, they arent all the same. Cobb and Happ have been much better throughout their careers. Happ is much more established, Cobb has been much better than all 3 overall. Cobb gets hurt, so does Eovaldi. None of the 3 can throw 200 IP.

 

Eovaldis contract is evidence of the "going up" in comparison to those BETTER pitchers.

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

Cobb had not been all that good, especially the 2-3 years before signing.

 

Happ had a 3.43 ERA in the 3 years before signing for less than Cobb, who was at 4.20 the previous 3 years. "Much better?"

 

Eovaldi was overpaid due to his playoff performance. I'm not sure you can claim he set a new bar for other GMs to overpay.

 

Let's see what Keuchel gets. Where's his overpay?

 

[SCM33]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

Cobb had not been all that good, especially the 2-3 years before signing.

 

Happ had a 3.43 ERA in the 3 years before signing for less than Cobb, who was at 4.20 the previous 3 years. "Much better?"

 

Eovaldi was overpaid due to his playoff performance. I'm not sure you can claim he set a new bar for other GMs to overpay.

 

Let's see what Keuchel gets. Where's his overpay?

 

 

Thats fair, we can agree to disagree.....because in the end, nobody knows how these mid range SP's will work out. I think we can agree however, these mid range deals are the meat and potatoes, roster building wise.....that make or break a team. Going back to Betts, is it worth it to pay 1 player all that money, or take the risk on these mid range players, especially filling out a rotation......that either make, or break your season, and your salary cap.

[notin]

But thats what I am saying. The market has changed. Those are old contracts. They will need to spend more than 16M (Eovaldi) for a #3 SP on a Championship team.

 

 

Eovaldi might not have been a #3, but bear in mind at 29, he’s young by free agent standards. Like with Porcello, whose numbers prior to 2016 were very much like Eovaldi’s (but with much greater IP), the goal here might be to get a pitcher on his way up to #3 production rather than one who gets there on his way back down...

[SCM33]

Eovaldi might not have been a #3, but bear in mind at 29, he’s young by free agent standards. Like with Porcello, whose numbers prior to 2016 were very much like Eovaldi’s (but with much greater IP), the goal here might be to get a pitcher on his way up to #3 production rather than one who gets there on his way back down...

 

Not arguing, but like I said....he was paid for what he did in the playoffs......and the value he has in future playoffs when he is moved from the rotation to be a dominant reliever. He was not paid to be a #3.

 

Its an overpay for a "playoff gun", but it is well deserved money..The money was earned last year in the playoffs, and hopefully....this year in the playoffs when they can bounce him back to the bullpen.

 

They did jack s*** to improve their bullpen for this year. In fact, they got worse.....Eovaldi fits in to their plans to be a lockdown reliever in the playoffs, when they get there.

[moonslav59]

Thats fair, we can agree to disagree.....because in the end, nobody knows how these mid range SP's will work out. I think we can agree however, these mid range deals are the meat and potatoes, roster building wise.....that make or break a team. Going back to Betts, is it worth it to pay 1 player all that money, or take the risk on these mid range players, especially filling out a rotation......that either make, or break your season, and your salary cap.

 

I'll take Betts over Eovaldi + Happ.

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone should. A guy who averages 8 WAR is better than two guys who might reach 3 or 4 WAR. Happ and Eovaldi shouldn’t be in the same discussion, though. Happ is the steady Eddie who doesn’t possess dominant stuff, yet has remained durable and effective for the past 4 years. Eovaldi has tantalizingly dominant stuff who has been all over the place and hasn’t harnessed it or stayed healthy outside of one playoff run

[cp176]

If Henry is willing to continue to pay those steep taxes, which I never thought he would, then the team might actually get by with a barren farm.

 

Not the smartest way to do baseball, but that's the bed that we've made.

 

Personally i would be a little careful about a suggesting that John Henry doesn't understand the "smart way" of doing baseball. It is only my opinion for sure but I kind of think that he gets it and that based on results his way of dong things is the right way for him and us. Some people might not like how he runs his business but I think that he runs it in a pretty smart way.

[SCM33]

Bogaerts contract is further evidence that Betts will not be re-signed.

[Bellhorn04]

Bogaerts contract is further evidence that Betts will not be re-signed.

 

That's one way of looking at it.

 

If Betts does go to free agency, it's 2 whole years before the moment of truth, and a lot will have happened by then.

[notin]

Eovaldi was kind of a special case. Lots of apparent upside trading off with lots of risk.

 

It was a fat contract based on his career numbers and injuries but maybe not indicative of a trend.

 

I would also argue that, much like in the cases of Porcello and Jason Hayward, age was also a factor...