A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Think how different the conversation would be had we not won the World Series. Yikes.

 

You're right. Winning the World Series this year was monumental. And had we not done so, the offseason talk would not be happy.

[sk7326]

Think how different the conversation would be had we not won the World Series. Yikes.

 

This is so much better. Now we're only worried about repeating in 2019 (and wouldn't jump off a cliff if we come up short). Sucks to be a Yankee fan. Things maybe looking up. But can they win it all? Pressure is all on them.

 

There is pressure every year. The 2018 World Series will be quickly forgotten with a 5-12 start. It's just how Red Sox fans as a cohort are.

[dgalehouse]

Despite all of the success in recent years , many Sox fans have never quite gotten over the past disappointments and the whole " Curse of the Bambino " thing. It is deeply ingrained. They are always waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. Even this past year , as the post season progressed towards yet another championship, some were constantly freaking out over every misstep. I don't see this changing any time soon. For example; look at the impending " cliff " paranoia.

[sk7326]

Despite all of the success in recent years , many Sox fans have never quite gotten over the past disappointments and the whole " Curse of the Bambino " thing. It is deeply ingrained. They are always waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. Even this past year , as the post season progressed towards yet another championship, some were constantly freaking out over every misstep. I don't see this changing any time soon. For example; look at the impending " cliff " paranoia.

 

Look at the stupid "Yankees suck" chant ... no matter the time or place. You know who doesn't mean anything to me? The Yankees. They are a team to overcome ... just like all the other ones.

[BillyWilliams]

Look at the stupid "Yankees suck" chant ... no matter the time or place. You know who doesn't mean anything to me? The Yankees. They are a team to overcome ... just like all the other ones.

 

They even chanted it at a patsies super bowl parade several years back. Heck, they even chanted it after the WS this year. But that's mostly pathetic fans like slasher.

[sk7326]

They even chanted it at a patsies super bowl parade several years back. Heck, they even chanted it after the WS this year. But that's mostly pathetic fans like slasher.

 

It's terrible. I mean - since the advent of player employment freedom (which made team building much harder than it was in the olde days) there has been only one team (Yankees 1994-2009) that has had a better 15 year run than this current Red Sox era.

 

I will not be dishonest and say I don't care about the Yankees at all ... but I take very little solace in their losing. (2003 the only exception) I think of them very little relative to say, are the Red Sox winning.

[jacksonianmarch]

Think how different the conversation would be had we not won the World Series. Yikes.

 

This is so much better. Now we're only worried about repeating in 2019 (and wouldn't jump off a cliff if we come up short). Sucks to be a Yankee fan. Things maybe looking up. But can they win it all? Pressure is all on them.

 

Sucks to be a Yankee fan? No, it sucked to be a Yankee fan in 2013 when it was obvious the Yanks were staring a rebuild in the face and the Sox were winning the title. This has been the target since we blew it up in 2016.

[moonslav59]

Despite all of the success in recent years , many Sox fans have never quite gotten over the past disappointments and the whole " Curse of the Bambino " thing. It is deeply ingrained. They are always waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. Even this past year , as the post season progressed towards yet another championship, some were constantly freaking out over every misstep. I don't see this changing any time soon. For example; look at the impending " cliff " paranoia.

 

Not the same.

 

One is based on reality and probabilities.

 

The other is based on paranoia and emotional instability.

 

[dgalehouse]

It can be a fine line between the two. Our " Reality " can often be influenced by our , sometimes biased , perception.

[notin]

Despite all of the success in recent years , many Sox fans have never quite gotten over the past disappointments and the whole " Curse of the Bambino " thing. It is deeply ingrained. They are always waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop. Even this past year , as the post season progressed towards yet another championship, some were constantly freaking out over every misstep. I don't see this changing any time soon. For example; look at the impending " cliff " paranoia.

 

No one ever talked about the Curse of the Bambino until 1990 when Dan Shaughnessy used the expression for a book title. There was no basis for any curse beyond a title drought, the type of which were extremely commonplace in MLB throughout the 20th century. People who cite the Curse for anything are just throwing mystical causes for simple frustration and attributing to divine forces to mask their ignorance. Cubs fans did this for years, too.

 

On the other hand, the cliff is based on having a really weak farm, which is the consensus of every scouting organization in existence today and will make it difficult to replace the Sox younger stars as free agency approaches.

 

The funny thing is more people seem to believe in the Curse than the Cliff, despite only the Cliff having evidence that it exists...

[S5Dewey]

 

I will not be dishonest and say I don't care about the Yankees at all ... but I take very little solace in their losing. (2003 the only exception) I think of them very little relative to say, are the Red Sox winning.

 

I spent what seemed like decades watching the Sox take a late lead into a game only to see the Yankees come back and snatch another victory and then watch Yankees trolls show up rub salt in an open wound. In fact, it continues here now when Yankee trolls come here to find something.... anything... "wrong" with the Sox. One would think they'd have a life and post on their own board, but noooooo. Therefore any chance I get to return that "favor" I'm going to do it. At the end of the day it's not about the Yankees team, it's about their fans. Besides, it's fun, and part of the Red Sox culture.

 

I like New York and I don't even dislike the Yankee players (or most of them). It's their fans I dislike.

[Bellhorn04]

No one ever talked about the Curse of the Bambino until 1990 when Dan Shaughnessy used the expression for a book title. There was no basis for any curse beyond a title drought, the type of which were extremely commonplace in MLB throughout the 20th century. People who cite the Curse for anything are just throwing mystical causes for simple frustration and attributing to divine forces to mask their ignorance.

 

I really hope there was NO ONE who actually believed there was a curse on the team. However, the team did have quite a remarkable history of horrible blunders, mind-blowing defeats and just plain weird s***, and Shaughnessy did a pretty good job capturing and cashing in on all of it.

[notin]

I really hope there was NO ONE who actually believed there was a curse on the team. However, the team did have quite a remarkable history of horrible blunders, mind-blowing defeats and just plain weird s***, and Shaughnessy did a pretty good job capturing and cashing in on all of it.

 

Did they have more of those than the Cubs or Guardians or Twins or Phillies or any of the other MLB teams with insanely long title droughts?

 

And I can tell you first hand, prior to 2016 a lot of Cubs’ fans did believe there was a curse on the team. I bet there were plenty of equally susceptible Sox fans...

Edited November 23, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

It can be a fine line between the two. Our " Reality " can often be influenced by our , sometimes biased , perception.

 

Do you really think it is realistic to believe our farm will rebuild itself?

 

That DD can build the farm up enough to start getting very significant infusions within a year or two?

 

He's been drafting and signing international players for 3 cycles already.

 

The rules have changed since Theo & Ben's days. I'm not entirely blaming him for the state of our farm, but I think my opinion goes beyond "perception" and more towards probabilities and "reality."

 

Thinking the best Sox team ever was going to collapse based on a bad game or two here and there is not the same.

[Bellhorn04]

Did they have more of those than the Cubs or Guardians or Twins or Phillies or any of the other MLB teams with insanely long title droughts?

 

Yes.

[notin]

Yes.

 

 

You sure about that? Talk to a Cubs’ fan. They have this weird list of all the cursed activities, one of which actually includes a black cat.

 

And I’ve really heard them blame everything on the Curse. “Well how else do you explain Leon Durham missing that ground all in 1984?”

 

Umm ...because Durham was a s***** fielder?

[dgalehouse]

Do you really think it is realistic to believe our farm will rebuild itself?

 

That DD can build the farm up enough to start getting very significant infusions within a year or two?

 

He's been drafting and signing international players for 3 cycles already.

 

The rules have changed since Theo & Ben's days. I'm not entirely blaming him for the state of our farm, but I think my opinion goes beyond "perception" and more towards probabilities and "reality."

 

Thinking the best Sox team ever was going to collapse based on a bad game or two here and there is not the same.

 

The fear of an impending cliff is not being realistic in my view. We can stay on or near the top with a combination of spending , trades , acquisitions and whatever we are able to harvest from the farm. This just further convinces me that many fans are always looking for something bad to happen. The playoff paranoia was very apparent . So is the worry about the future.

[moonslav59]

The fear of an impending cliff is not being realistic in my view. We can stay on or near the top with a combination of spending , trades , acquisitions and whatever we are able to harvest from the farm. This just further convinces me that many fans are always looking for something bad to happen. The playoff paranoia was very apparent . So is the worry about the future.

 

I wouldn't call is a "fear," but it certainly is a reasonable and significant concern.

 

You need players and prospects other teams want in order to trade for good players.

 

We will likely continue to spend, and if Henry never calls for a a reset in the tax, then we might stay highly competitive for several years, but I am pretty certain a reset is in the plans.

 

With a weak farm and many starts reaching their last arb years and free agent years, a reset will not allow us to stay very competitive for at least that year and maybe one more.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is why a cliff exists and to some extent, exists with all big market clubs who strike out in their farm system.

 

This offseason, you are likely to lose Eovaldi and Kimbrel and replace them with lesser players

Next offseason, you are likely to lose JD Martinez and Chris Sale (I assume you re-up Porcello and Bogey) and replace them with lesser talents.

The following offseason, you will need to assign a huge amount of capital to bring back Betts

 

Eventually the cost controlled, cheap players get expensive. Those players either get re-signed or are replaced with guys less than their talent level. If you re-sign them all, then you are far exceeding the cap and will be unable to fill your squad out with good performers beyond the high priced guys. We have yet to see a George Steinbrenner type disregard for the rules to this point. Heck, the Dodgers, who own the highest single season payroll of all time, got under and reset this past year. The sox aren't gonna exceed the $300 mil it would take to keep the band together, nor do they want to as they'll be stuck with big cash outlays for decline years. The only way you can sustain is to continue to bring up top talents through the minors. Dave has proven incapable of drafting, signing or developing those talents.

[cp176]

This is why a cliff exists and to some extent, exists with all big market clubs who strike out in their farm system.

 

This offseason, you are likely to lose Eovaldi and Kimbrel and replace them with lesser players

Next offseason, you are likely to lose JD Martinez and Chris Sale (I assume you re-up Porcello and Bogey) and replace them with lesser talents.

The following offseason, you will need to assign a huge amount of capital to bring back Betts

 

Eventually the cost controlled, cheap players get expensive. Those players either get re-signed or are replaced with guys less than their talent level. If you re-sign them all, then you are far exceeding the cap and will be unable to fill your squad out with good performers beyond the high priced guys. We have yet to see a George Steinbrenner type disregard for the rules to this point. Heck, the Dodgers, who own the highest single season payroll of all time, got under and reset this past year. The sox aren't gonna exceed the $300 mil it would take to keep the band together, nor do they want to as they'll be stuck with big cash outlays for decline years. The only way you can sustain is to continue to bring up top talents through the minors. Dave has proven incapable of drafting, signing or developing those talents.

 

Moon - I hope that you can see what you have done. We have now been informed that in actuality our GM isn't really very good - although I know I know Yank fan - you didn't come right out and say that , implied strongly. I also know that there are those amongst us who have repeatedly claimed that we are not realists and that we just don't get it. I say, lets wait and see. I like our chances now and going forward as well. We can revisit this in a few when we are still at the top of the food chain or simply trying to climb our way back up out of that abyss following our sudden head first dive over that mf cliff.

[Dojji]

This is why a cliff exists and to some extent, exists with all big market clubs who strike out in their farm system.

 

This offseason, you are likely to lose Eovaldi and Kimbrel and replace them with lesser players

Next offseason, you are likely to lose JD Martinez and Chris Sale (I assume you re-up Porcello and Bogey) and replace them with lesser talents.

The following offseason, you will need to assign a huge amount of capital to bring back Betts

 

Eventually the cost controlled, cheap players get expensive. Those players either get re-signed or are replaced with guys less than their talent level. If you re-sign them all, then you are far exceeding the cap and will be unable to fill your squad out with good performers beyond the high priced guys. We have yet to see a George Steinbrenner type disregard for the rules to this point. Heck, the Dodgers, who own the highest single season payroll of all time, got under and reset this past year. The sox aren't gonna exceed the $300 mil it would take to keep the band together, nor do they want to as they'll be stuck with big cash outlays for decline years. The only way you can sustain is to continue to bring up top talents through the minors. Dave has proven incapable of drafting, signing or developing those talents.

 

That's a nice dream for you, but meanwhile, the Red Sox are not passive passengers of fate. DD will be doing what he can to buy time and improve the roster. Hes got some decisions to make, but DD is one of the most experienced and competent GMs out there, I trust him to make those decisions.

 

If not, this year justifies a few struggles down the road. Getting to the top is usually worth the price you had to pay to get there, and considering that nobody's gotten to the top in this century more than the Red Sox, I have to think our ownership and senior leadership have a pretty good idea of how to right the ship when things start to drift downhill

 

I fully expect a steady downward trend in the next 5 years, similar to the period between 2008 and 2013, then the team will begin to integrate the new core it's developing in the meantime and make another stab at the top. The interim years might look messy but don't pretend for a moment that either the Red Sox or the Yankees are going to stay irrelevant for an extended period of time because neither is happening.

[dgalehouse]

FYI , The collector's edition of the Red Sox championship season DVD or BluRay box set will be available on Amazon on Dec. 4 . If you want to spend a little less , the World Series DVD will be out on that date also. They can be pre-ordered now.

[FredLynn]

That's a nice dream for you, but meanwhile, the Red Sox are not passive passengers of fate. DD will be doing what he can to buy time and improve the roster. Hes got some decisions to make, but DD is one of the most experienced and competent GMs out there, I trust him to make those decisions.

 

If not, this year justifies a few struggles down the road. Getting to the top is usually worth the price you had to pay to get there, and considering that nobody's gotten to the top in this century more than the Red Sox, I have to think our ownership and senior leadership have a pretty good idea of how to right the ship when things start to drift downhill

 

I fully expect a steady downward trend in the next 5 years, similar to the period between 2008 and 2013, then the team will begin to integrate the new core it's developing in the meantime and make another stab at the top. The interim years might look messy but don't pretend for a moment that either the Red Sox or the Yankees are going to stay irrelevant for an extended period of time because neither is happening.

 

Yes, that is Jacko's dream. Unfortunately, for him, this season was his worst nightmare, what with the Sox finishing ahead of the preseason favorite Yankees and ended their season on their home field. I would not trade this season for any other. No Red Sox fan should believe that we are going to play in the WS every year. Its doesn't work that way. For my part, fielding a competitive team and getting into the playoffs for the next few years would be enough.

[moonslav59]

Moon - I hope that you can see what you have done. We have now been informed that in actuality our GM isn't really very good - although I know I know Yank fan - you didn't come right out and say that , implied strongly. I also know that there are those amongst us who have repeatedly claimed that we are not realists and that we just don't get it. I say, lets wait and see. I like our chances now and going forward as well. We can revisit this in a few when we are still at the top of the food chain or simply trying to climb our way back up out of that abyss following our sudden head first dive over that mf cliff.

 

I just wanted a ring from the 4-5 year window DD created. I'm thrilled. We may even win another one.

 

I'm fine with a reset year in 2021 (or 2020 if Henry wants it then).

[Larry Cook]

I just wanted a ring from the 4-5 year window DD created. I'm thrilled. We may even win another one.

 

I'm fine with a reset year in 2021 (or 2020 if Henry wants it then).

 

Amen brother!

 

This year was beyond sweet and incredibly satisfying.

[moonslav59]

Amen brother!

 

This year was beyond sweet and incredibly satisfying.

 

It sure is!

 

Being a top contender for 2019 is gravy!

 

Great job, DD.

 

Super job, Cora!

 

I'm lovin' the ride.

[Nick]

This is why a cliff exists and to some extent, exists with all big market clubs who strike out in their farm system.

 

This offseason, you are likely to lose Eovaldi and Kimbrel and replace them with lesser players

Next offseason, you are likely to lose JD Martinez and Chris Sale (I assume you re-up Porcello and Bogey) and replace them with lesser talents.

The following offseason, you will need to assign a huge amount of capital to bring back Betts

 

Eventually the cost controlled, cheap players get expensive. Those players either get re-signed or are replaced with guys less than their talent level. If you re-sign them all, then you are far exceeding the cap and will be unable to fill your squad out with good performers beyond the high priced guys. We have yet to see a George Steinbrenner type disregard for the rules to this point. Heck, the Dodgers, who own the highest single season payroll of all time, got under and reset this past year. The sox aren't gonna exceed the $300 mil it would take to keep the band together, nor do they want to as they'll be stuck with big cash outlays for decline years. The only way you can sustain is to continue to bring up top talents through the minors. Dave has proven incapable of drafting, signing or developing those talents.

 

I think we have two year window. I advocate signing Eovaldi. It's difficult to fathom Price, Sale, Porcello and E Rod all being healthy all year.

 

In terms of importance, Sox should focus on signing, extending

 

Position Players Betts, JD Martinez (Beni, Devers under team control), will need 1B, SS, CF

Starting Pitchers (Price, already under contract), Sale (Eovaldi, assuming we sign him this winter)

[moonslav59]

I think we have two year window. I advocate signing Eovaldi. It's difficult to fathom Price, Sale, Porcello and E Rod all being healthy all year.

 

In terms of importance, Sox should focus on signing, extending

 

Position Players Betts, JD Martinez (Beni, Devers under team control), will need 1B, SS, CF

Starting Pitchers (Price, already under contract), Sale (Eovaldi, assuming we sign him this winter)

 

I agree on the two year window, then a reset. It would be great to sign Eovaldi to 2 years, so we can reset without losing everybody. I doubt he takes 2 years, but if we offer him more, maybe he will. I big 3 year option buyout might help. Then, sign a Rp'er to 2 years and roll the dice.

[Nick]

I agree on the two year window, then a reset. It would be great to sign Eovaldi to 2 years, so we can reset without losing everybody. I doubt he takes 2 years, but if we offer him more, maybe he will. I big 3 year option buyout might help. Then, sign a Rp'er to 2 years and roll the dice.

 

Offer Eovaldi 4 year deal with the money loaded up front, similar to JD. The goal is for him to have two good years. He'll opt out after we win in 2019 and 2020. Three peat.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's a nice dream for you, but meanwhile, the Red Sox are not passive passengers of fate. DD will be doing what he can to buy time and improve the roster. Hes got some decisions to make, but DD is one of the most experienced and competent GMs out there, I trust him to make those decisions.

 

If not, this year justifies a few struggles down the road. Getting to the top is usually worth the price you had to pay to get there, and considering that nobody's gotten to the top in this century more than the Red Sox, I have to think our ownership and senior leadership have a pretty good idea of how to right the ship when things start to drift downhill

 

I fully expect a steady downward trend in the next 5 years, similar to the period between 2008 and 2013, then the team will begin to integrate the new core it's developing in the meantime and make another stab at the top. The interim years might look messy but don't pretend for a moment that either the Red Sox or the Yankees are going to stay irrelevant for an extended period of time because neither is happening.

 

The “cliff” is what DD makes of it. If he keep trying to prop this window open, it’ll be a hill with a huge bottom. If he re-sets and rebuilds, it’ll be a cliff with a shorter down phase.

 

Here’s my prediction for what it’s worth. 2019 will be a playoff season with World Series type talent level. After 2019, the Sox will be weaker as they’ll have to pick and choose which big FAs they keep. 2020 will be a playoff year, but a clear downturn compared to 2019. 2021 will be tough to contend as all the teams that tanked are now peaking and the Sox are trying to bail water out of a leaky canoe.

 

This is point I’d expect DD to simply retire. Dave isn’t a young buck. He’s 62 years old. By the end of 2020, he’ll be 64 with at least one title in hand. No point in sticking around for the rebuild. Henry didn’t bring him in to create a dynasty. He brought him in to win a title, and that mission has been accomplished