A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

True, but just last year, he had a very long consistent streak of above average hitting:

 

May 20 to Sept 30 (102 games and 393 PAs)

 

.260/.333/.460/.793

 

 

He who challenges moonslav on numbers will be rebutted. In this case, you're only saying there is a smidgen of hope, which I can accept.

[moonslav59]

3 JBJ's:

 

.548 2013-2014 (first 530 PAs)

 

.834 2015-2016 (891 PAs)

 

.703 2017-2019 (1134 PAs)

[moonslav59]

He who challenges moonslav on numbers will be rebutted. In this case, you're only saying there is a smidgen of hope, which I can accept.

 

I'll take .703 at this point (his OPS from 2017-2019).

[kenmeister]

He who challenges moonslav on numbers will be rebutted. In this case, you're only saying there is a smidgen of hope, which I can accept.

 

Well, we thought he was potentially a superstar during the streak.

 

News article:

During the streak, Bradley is hitting .415 (44-for-106) with nine doubles, three triples, eight homers, 30 RBIs and a 1.271 OPS.

 

The sky was the limit for Bradley back then. Now, we crave .260 hitting again.

[dgalehouse]

JBJ is what he is . A great defender and a streaky , but overall not very good hitter . He has been around long enough to clearly establish that . A career .326 average and a career .716 OPS . There is no reason to think that will change very much . Take it or leave it . I think the bigger issue is still the bullpen . As we saw last night , we are at a big disadvantage when we get into a battle of the bullpens with the Yankees . This could well become a problem as the season progresses .

[moonslav59]

JBJ is what he is . A great defender and a streaky , but overall not very good hitter . He has been around long enough to clearly establish that . A career .326 average and a career .716 OPS . There is no reason to think that will change very much . Take it or leave it . I think the bigger issue is still the bullpen . As we saw last night , we are at a big disadvantage when we get into a battle of the bullpens with the Yankees . This could well become a problem as the season progresses .

 

A .716 OPS in CF is not far from average.

[Maxbialystock]

Well, we thought he was potentially a superstar during the streak.

 

News article:

During the streak, Bradley is hitting .415 (44-for-106) with nine doubles, three triples, eight homers, 30 RBIs and a 1.271 OPS.

 

The sky was the limit for Bradley back then. Now, we crave .260 hitting again.

 

Too true. As Prospero and later Sam Spade both said, "the stuff that dreams are made of."

[vegasbob]

Maybe the time is right for DD to relook at about half his roster and consider some radical decisions that go well beyond DFA'ing Swihart.

 

It would seem to be getting clear that Pedroia, at best, is a parttimer and at worst a total playing loss. This requires a full time back up or actual replacement at 2B. Regrettably Brock Holt is back in the odd injury category, but unable to play, and in his limited exposure so far in 2019 was the least productive hitter . Nunez is an older, marginal backup who cannot make a real difference. These 3 guys are right now an anchor dragging bottom. Only Holt holds some value but what would anyone give you for him. Another utility player ? Could the Sox go with Tzu Wei Lin as the primary 2B man for this year while Chavis works on his game ?

 

JBJr continues to be a dilemma and virtual auto-out. He has shown he can hit at times, but there must be some reason he cannot sustain it, falling back into bad habits and rolling grounders to the right side. He is not a cheap young player anymore . He could have some value , preferably in the NL .

 

Devers and Betts simply need to wake up and play their way out of their current unproductive situations. The time to look at Mookie's future is the 2019-2020 off season and if there no reason to expect him to resign, let the trade talks flow then.

 

Steve Pearce has little value to anyone else at his age and current price. Decent glove and insurance for Moreland, who has been injury prone. But Sam Travis could likely be a cheap filler, if another team wants the Pearce who came to the Sox last summer, and helped considerably.

 

The catching dilemma needs solving in an affirmative way next winter. The answer likely does not include Leon at all. Vaz is either their guy or move both of them .

 

Pitching, in general, just acknowledge that there are 2 guys in the pen who are reliable (Barnes/Brasier) and a lot of filler material , who despite a nice season beginning, are now showing their true abilities, which are limited. (Hembree/Workman/Thornburg/Brewer) . Brian Johnson and Steven Wright aren't the answer . Velasquez is what he is, another filler with some ability as a spot pitcher. The starting rotation next year will be Price/Sale/Rodriguez plus at least one guy from Pawsox (Hernandez ), and one signing to replace Porcello .

 

The talk about the "cliff" , real or not, may have already been precipitated by the really poor play during this weak start. It wouldn't be popular but maybe DD and the Sox need to see what a reset truly looks like, if they are not in contention by mid to late June.

Edited April 18, 2019 by vegasbob

[Hitch]

It's too early to talk about us being out of contention in any way, but if it's clear come trade deadline that we absolutely are, I trade Martinez for sure if he continues his hot hand. No way he doesn't opt out so if we are out of things we could get a very nice piece for him, then try to re-sign him in the summer. Trade Porcello too, if there's any decent offers for him.

 

I really don't think we will have to worry about these issues however. At least I hope not anyways.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the time is right for DD to relook at about half his roster and consider some radical decisions that go well beyond DFA'ing Swihart.

 

It would seem to be getting clear that Pedroia, at best, is a parttimer and at worst a total playing loss. This requires a full time back up or actual replacement at 2B. Regrettably Brock Holt is back in the odd injury category, but unable to play, and in his limited exposure so far in 2019 was the least productive hitter . Nunez is an older, marginal backup who cannot make a real difference. These 3 guys are right now an anchor dragging bottom. Only Holt holds some value but what would anyone give you for him. Another utility player ? Could the Sox go with Tzu Wei Lin as the primary 2B man for this year while Chavis works on his game ?

 

JBJr continues to be a dilemma and virtual auto-out. He has shown he can hit at times, but there must be some reason he cannot sustain it, falling back into bad habits and rolling grounders to the right side. He is not a cheap young player anymore . He could have some value , preferably in the NL .

 

Devers and Betts simply need to wake up and play their way out of their current unproductive situations. The time to look at Mookie's future is the 2019-2020 off season and if there no reason to expect him to resign, let the trade talks flow then.

 

Steve Pearce has little value to anyone else at his age and current price. Decent glove and insurance for Moreland, who has been injury prone. But Sam Travis could likely be a cheap filler, if another team wants the Pearce who came to the Sox last summer, and helped considerably.

 

The catching dilemma needs solving in an affirmative way next winter. The answer likely does not include Leon at all. Vaz is either their guy or move both of them .

 

Pitching, in general, just acknowledge that there are 2 guys in the pen who are reliable (Barnes/Brasier) and a lot of filler material , who despite a nice season beginning, are now showing their true abilities, which are limited. (Hembree/Workman/Thornburg/Brewer) . Brian Johnson and Steven Wright aren't the answer . Velasquez is what he is, another filler with some ability as a spot pitcher. The starting rotation next year will be Price/Sale/Rodriguez plus at least one guy from Pawsox (Hernandez ), and one signing to replace Porcello .

 

The talk about the "cliff" , real or not, may have already been precipitated by the really poor play during this weak start. It wouldn't be popular but maybe DD and the Sox need to see what a reset truly looks like, if they are not in contention by mid to late June.

 

If we are out of it by the deadline (doubtful, IMO), we could get something for Porcello, JBJ and Holt-- all free agents after this year or next.

 

If Moreland or Pearce are hitting well, maybe we could get something for one or both.

 

Nunez will not get anything in return.

[kenmeister]

If we are out of it by the deadline (doubtful, IMO), we could get something for Porcello, JBJ and Holt-- all free agents after this year or next.

 

If Moreland or Pearce are hitting well, maybe we could get something for one or both.

 

Nunez will not get anything in return.

 

Yeah I'm not even close to worried yet about not being in contention come August. Sure they are playing terrible now, but I'm seeing the signs - player by player - that the rust is shaking off. Mookie Betts is, of course, the key. But Price, E-Rod, and now Eovaldi have all turned in some nice performances and I expect that to become more of the norm for them. Porcello and Sale will follow. Don't lose hope yet!

[moonslav59]

Yeah I'm not even close to worried yet about not being in contention come August. Sure they are playing terrible now, but I'm seeing the signs - player by player - that the rust is shaking off. Mookie Betts is, of course, the key. But Price, E-Rod, and now Eovaldi have all turned in some nice performances and I expect that to become more of the norm for them. Porcello and Sale will follow. Don't lose hope yet!

 

I'm still firmly on the Red Sox 2019 Championship Wagon. I was just responding to a post.

[harmony]

I'm still firmly on the Red Sox 2019 Championship Wagon. I was just responding to a post.

FiveThirtyEight offered an analysis today:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/um-the-red-sox-may-actually-be-in-trouble/

 

And from today's column by Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier:

“If we don’t start playing better, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, maybe myself, we could get traded,” he said. “We’re, what, 30th in minor league systems?”

 

Price was referencing Baseball America’s recent organizational evaluations that did indeed rank the Red Sox with the No. 30 farm system.

 

“We’re dead last,” he said. “We don’t play better, Mookie Betts will be traded, J.D. Martinez will be traded. It will be tough for a while here.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/18/what-red-sox-don-turn-around/nuA94FwrdflazY2KJ6OvZL/story.html

 

Sports Illustrated offers its take:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/04/18/red-sox-yankees-al-east-standings

Edited April 18, 2019 by harmony

[Maxbialystock]

I'm still firmly on the Red Sox 2019 Championship Wagon. I was just responding to a post.

 

 

Not my favorite wagon to be on, so am considering bailing in maybe June. Last year about this time we were 15-2 vs our current 6-13 and we will play the Rays in 6 of our next 9 or 10 games (the others vs. the Tigers).

[moonslav59]

Not my favorite wagon to be on, so am considering bailing in maybe June. Last year about this time we were 15-2 vs our current 6-13 and we will play the Rays in 6 of our next 9 or 10 games (the others vs. the Tigers).

 

Many bailed at various times last year. Some several times.

[kenmeister]

I'm still firmly on the Red Sox 2019 Championship Wagon. I was just responding to a post.

 

Oh I know my comment was general in nature.

 

If they are still playing poorly come the end of May, I will jump off the bandwagon.

[moonslav59]

Oh I know my comment was general in nature.

 

If they are still playing poorly come the end of May, I will jump off the bandwagon.

 

They'd have to be 20 GB the last wild card slot for me to even think about it in May.

[Maxbialystock]

Many bailed at various times last year. Some several times.

 

 

I don't remember bailing--who could anyone?--but do remember saying the Yankees looked like an oncoming freight train.

[TylerD]

I haven't bailed on the team, and still cheer for them every day they play...… But I think they are epic failures...… But I still cheer for them

 

 

The end.

[moonslav59]

I haven't bailed on the team, and still cheer for them every day they play...… But I think they are epic failures...… But I still cheer for them

 

 

The end.

 

"Are" and will continue to be or not?

[Kimmi]

I'm still firmly on the Red Sox 2019 Championship Wagon. I was just responding to a post.

 

In!

[Kimmi]

I don't see it happening, but if the Sox are out of it come late June, then they need to absolutely look into trading players that are not locked up long term, and that includes Mookie.

[moonslav59]

I don't see it happening, but if the Sox are out of it come late June, then they need to absolutely look into trading players that are not locked up long term, and that includes Mookie.

 

These players are... (2019 luxury tax salary included)

 

FA after 2019

20.6 Porcello

6.5 Moreland

6.6 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

3.6 Holt

1.8 Thornburg

 

FA after 2020

20.0 Betts (last arb)

8.6 JBJ (last arb)

2.5 Leon (last arb)

1.3 Wright (last arb)

1.2 Workman (last arb)

 

Some of these guys would bring very little back, even with some of their salaries paid for. To me, the most likely trade candidates would be Porcello, Holt & JBJ.

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

These players are... (2019 luxury tax salary included)

 

FA after 2019

20.6 Porcello

6.5 Moreland

6.6 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

3.6 Holt

1.8 Thornburg

 

FA after 2020

20.0 Betts (last arb)

8.6 JBJ (last arb)

2.5 Leon (last arb)

1.3 Wright (last arb)

1.2 Workman (last arb)

 

Some of these guys would bring very little back, even with some of their salaries paid for. To me, the most likely trade candidates would be Porcello, Holt & JBJ.

 

It's true that some of those guys won't bring back very much. Maybe a contending team has an injury that they need to fill, and a veteran like Moreland would be a nice fit.

 

At any rate, I'd shop them all and see what we could get.

[Bellhorn04]

It's true that some of those guys won't bring back very much. Maybe a contending team has an injury that they need to fill, and a veteran like Moreland would be a nice fit.

 

At any rate, I'd shop them all and see what we could get.

 

Yuck. It's April 19.

[notin]

Yuck. It's April 19.

 

 

Agreed. A moratorium on all Fire Sale talk until May 31. Agreed?

 

(Open to new suggestions of a reasonable date.)

[dgalehouse]

Sox signed another ham and egger , lefty reliever named Jeremy Bleich . Wednesday night the situation called for a lefty to pitch to Gardner in the 7th , but we didn't have one . Cora went with the trendy fad of using your closer in the " high leverage " situation. It backfired when Brasier served up an 0 - 2 meatball to Gardner . Is Jeremy Bleich the answer ? Stay tuned .

[notin]

Sox signed another ham and egger , lefty reliever named Jeremy Bleich . Wednesday night the situation called for a lefty to pitch to Gardner in the 7th , but we didn't have one . Cora went with the trendy fad of using your closer in the " high leverage " situation. It backfired when Brasier served up an 0 - 2 meatball to Gardner . Is Jeremy Bleich the answer ? Stay tuned .

 

 

Bleich has only recorded one out in his MLB career, coming via strikeout. This means he currently has a perfect 27.00 K/9...

[dgalehouse]

Bleich has only recorded one out in his MLB career, coming via strikeout. This means he currently has a perfect 27.00 K/9...

 

Admittedly, I don't follow the game as closely as I once did . I honestly never heard of this jabroni.

[notin]

Admittedly, I don't follow the game as closely as I once did . I honestly never heard of this jabroni.

 

Me either. I looked him up