A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[kenmeister]

Last year's team is back, and they are ready to keep winning.

 

They are playing better for sure, but I don't see last year's team in what we have here.

[d-money]

They are playing better for sure, but I don't see last year's team in what we have here.

 

The offense still looks inconsistent. Have to be more consistent on offense. Pitching as well although sale and price have pitched better.

[a700hitter]

The offense still looks inconsistent. Have to be more consistent on offense. Pitching as well although sale and price have pitched better.

The hitting will not be there every game. When it isn’t there, they need to force errors with their speed and putting on plays like they did last season.

[a700hitter]

He may have been sarcastic...

I realize that, but I wanted to go on record about it, if that is okay with you.

[notin]

I realize that, but I wanted to go on record about it, if that is okay with you.

 

I’ll allow it.

 

I don’t think anyone wants to undo that trade, although the progress of Allen and Moncada has certainly quashed the myth from a couple years ago that the prospects the Sox gave up for Kimbrel and Sale were all busts...

[Bellhorn04]

I’ll allow it.

 

I don’t think anyone wants to undo that trade, although the progress of Allen and Moncada has certainly quashed the myth from a couple years ago that the prospects the Sox gave up for Kimbrel and Sale were all busts...

 

Margot is really sucking this year, so there's that.

[Kimmi]

I generally prefer to disagree with you, but will not argue that repeating last year is anything but guaranteed. It's even a longshot at this point.

 

At the same time, however, I believe the Twins series was a watershed event, including the loss, which was anything but a bad loss. And I said that after the game and well before last night's game. Price asked not to go back out for the 6th, and Cora and the bullpen responded beautifully even though the Sox lost in the 17th. The proof was how the Sox demolished the Twins in game 3.

 

Last year's team is back, and they are ready to keep winning.

 

If Uehara in 2013 form were available, I would be more enthusiastic about getting a great closer, but, honestly, Kimbrel poisoned that well for me last year. He was and is an overpaid prima donna who folded like a cheap tent in the postseason. Brasier and Kelly and even Eovaldi (normally a starter) were a whole bunch better. This year Kelly is just one more earthquake in LA, Brasier has struggled, and Eovaldi is on the IL. So, basically, we need Cora and his pitching coach to be clairvoyant for the rest of the season in terms who comes in for a given inning. That bullpen has already carried a lot of water this season because the rotation has been inconsistent.

 

Oh, in case you missed it, I pointed out exactly how Cora was masterful in the middle game (17 innings) of the Twins series and will be happy to repeat that for you.

 

Maybe because I'm older--my Sox fandom began in 1949, 55 years before the end (2004) of the Curse--I am not spoiled by the humoungous success of the John Henry era in Boston. Thus to me our Sox cup runneth over with four WS wins in 14 years.

 

So, me, right now I'm pretty darn happy with this team and this manager. That winning streak and taking 2 of 3 vs. the Twins was no fluke. this is a solid team with no big weaknesses, not even our underpaid and over-maligned bullpen.

 

Max, you are on a roll.

[Kimmi]

They are playing better for sure, but I don't see last year's team in what we have here.

 

Cora mentioned a couple of games ago that he noticed a change in the clubhouse.

 

He said that last year's team is back.

[Kimmi]

I’ll allow it.

 

I don’t think anyone wants to undo that trade, although the progress of Allen and Moncada has certainly quashed the myth from a couple years ago that the prospects the Sox gave up for Kimbrel and Sale were all busts...

 

Undo the trade? Well not now that we have another WS Championship under our belt, but it's a trade that I would not have done. Dombrowski paid way too much for a relief pitcher, not only in prospects, but in $ as well.

[moonslav59]

They are playing better for sure, but I don't see last year's team in what we have here.

 

I've seen glimpses, but not for any prolonged period of time.

 

Maybe "it" will come: maybe not, but maybe with a little tweak to the pitching staff, we can put together a long stretch of dominance that will convince us all we are a top contender.

 

Max, every year is a "longshot" when you have 3-5 really good teams and 3-5 part time contenders every year. Last year was a longshot. I remember posters giving up on our team multiple times last year- often with the same comments I'm reading now:

 

"We can't beat the good teams."

 

"We can't beat good pitching."

 

"Our pen is horrible compared to ______."

 

"We can't win without Sale."

 

"Price is a playoff choke."

 

"Kelly shouldn't make the playoff roster."

 

and on and on...

 

Let's keep the faith my brothers. (I don't need to say sisters because Kimmi is a true believer.)

 

We have more than half the season to go. I know it looks bleak with all the Yankees healthy, now, but stranger things have happened, and our team has the horses to make a strong run for the division title, and if we fall short, I like our rotation against any team in a short series with days off left and right.

 

We have a better defense with the improved Devers at 3B.

 

Our catcher and 2B positions are no longer "black holes" at the plate.

 

Bogey & Devers are having career years.

 

A tweak to the staff and rebounds from Betts & JD should be enough to make us a top 3-4 contender. That's all we can ask. Then lady lucky and timely hitting & pitching decides the rest.

 

[moonslav59]

Max, you are on a roll.

 

I agree. I don't always fully agree with him, but he has been spot on and very insightful, of late.

[moonslav59]

Cora mentioned a couple of games ago that he noticed a change in the clubhouse.

 

He said that last year's team is back.

 

Let's hope he's right and not just saying this to help bring it to fruition.

 

[kenmeister]

A tweak to the staff and rebounds from Betts & JD should be enough to make us a top 3-4 contender. That's all we can ask. Then lady lucky and timely hitting & pitching decides the rest.

 

 

Fair enough. I don't know why Betts is a shadow of the player from last year, except that his slide at the plate actually started last September if I recall correctly. JDM has a bad back, is that why he's not the same? I don't know how you solve that except rest and physical therapy. But if he continues to play, his back won't get better.

[Bellhorn04]

JDM has a bad back, is that why he's not the same? I don't know how you solve that except rest and physical therapy. But if he continues to play, his back won't get better.

 

Much ado about nothing. The 0 for 8 was a nightmare game. But in the other 2 games of the series he had 3 hits and a walk and 2 RBI.

 

And he's got an OPS of .953 in his last 10 games even with the 0 for 8.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough. I don't know why Betts is a shadow of the player from last year, except that his slide at the plate actually started last September if I recall correctly. JDM has a bad back, is that why he's not the same? I don't know how you solve that except rest and physical therapy. But if he continues to play, his back won't get better.

 

I agree, and making sure JD DH's as much as possible is also a key component to keeping his back from acting up.

 

(If we had gotten EE...)

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, and making sure JD DH's as much as possible is also a key component to keeping his back from acting up.

 

(If we had gotten EE...)

 

If we had gotten EE we'd have 2 backs to worry about.

[notin]

Margot is really sucking this year, so there's that.

 

 

Margot’s been weak and Guerra is converting to pitcher. (Apparently he throws about 98mph.). Asuaje was never anything more than a utility infielder. Kopech’s been hurt. A lot. Basabe is struggling a bit in AA, but was killing in A ball this year...

[moonslav59]

If we had gotten EE we'd have 2 backs to worry about.

 

...and pretty much FT 2 DH's.

[moonslav59]

Margot’s been weak and Guerra is converting to pitcher. (Apparently he throws about 98mph.). Asuaje was never anything more than a utility infielder. Kopech’s been hurt. A lot. Basabe is struggling a bit in AA, but was killing in A ball this year...

 

Also,...

 

Yoan Moncada

.864 in 281 PAs (12 HRs and 40 rbi @ 162 gms=29 HRs & 98 rbi)

 

Mauricio Dubon

.922 in AAA last year (27 games)

.819 in AAA this year (67 games)

 

Travis Shaw

.570 this year (192 PAs) after two .800 plus seasons with Milwaukee.

 

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi trade)

2.73 ERA in 56 IP (1.27 WHIP)

 

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler trade)

2.02 ERA in 36 IP (1.21 WHIP & 10.6 K/9)

 

Frankie Montas (Peavy trade)

9-2 2.85 in 82 IP (1.18 WHIP & 9.7 K/9)

 

Basabe (AZ)

.837 in A+ (224 PAs)

 

Basabe (CWS)

.817 in A (24 PAs)

.600 in AA (133)

 

 

 

[S5Dewey]

 

We have more than half the season to go. I know it looks bleak with all the Yankees healthy, now, but stranger things have happened, and our team has the horses to make a strong run for the division title, and if we fall short, I like our rotation against any team in a short series with days off left and right.

 

We have a better defense with the improved Devers at 3B.

 

Our catcher and 2B positions are no longer "black holes" at the plate.

 

Bogey & Devers are having career years.

 

A tweak to the staff and rebounds from Betts & JD should be enough to make us a top 3-4 contender. That's all we can ask. Then lady lucky and timely hitting & pitching decides the rest.

 

 

I hear you and don't disagree. My concern now is that the Sox have dug themselves a large enough hole that it's going to be very difficult to avoid that Wild Card game. Too many things can happen in a winner take all game and too many of them are bad, especially when one team is measurably better than the other, not the least of which is pitching match-ups.

 

I'd be very comfortable playing any other WC team in a best of 5 or even best of 3 series but a winner take all game makes me very nervous.

[a700hitter]

They need to be picking up a game a week on the Skanks, but we are not. Hopefully we can pick up a couple of games this weekend as the Skanks are playing the Stros.

[dgalehouse]

Much ado about nothing. The 0 for 8 was a nightmare game. But in the other 2 games of the series he had 3 hits and a walk and 2 RBI.

 

And he's got an OPS of .953 in his last 10 games even with the 0 for 8.

 

J. D. will turn 32 in August . Maybe his talent is declining . I have heard that once you pass 30 , it all starts going downhill .

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OPS 2018 and 2019

 

2018 in RED

150+ PAs

1.078 Betts

1.031 JD

.928 Bogey

.908 JD

.901 Pearce (165 PAs)

.883 Bogey

.864 Devers

.859 Moreland (174)

.830 Beni

.799 Chavis

.794 Vaz

.778 Beni

.774 Holt

.758 Moreland

.731 Devers

.717 JBJ

.708 HRam (195)

.677 Nunez

.676 JBJ

.613 Swihart

.604 Kinsler(143)

.582 Leon (88)

.561 Nunez (134)

.540 Vaz

.511 Leon

 

While 4 of the top 6 hitters were in 2018, we have way less on the low end, this year. Only 3 of the bottom 13 are from 2019.

[moonslav59]

2018 vs 2019

 

Improving OPS

+254 Vaz

+133 Devers

+101 Moreland

+71 Leon

+45 Bogey

+18 Holt

 

Declining OPS

-42 Beni

-43 JBJ

-106 Nunez

-123 JD

-228 Betts

-398 Pearce

 

[vegasbob]

2018 vs 2019

 

Improving OPS

+254 Vaz

+133 Devers

+101 Moreland

+71 Leon

+45 Bogey

+18 Holt

 

Declining OPS

-42 Beni

-43 JBJ

-106 Nunez

-123 JD

-228 Betts

-398 Pearce

 

 

Betts, Benintendi and JDM one cause of the lack of early scoring in support of our starters. Maybe it's just an impression but we don't tend to jump the opposing pitcher early on.

[d-money]

Betts, Benintendi and JDM one cause of the lack of early scoring in support of our starters. Maybe it's just an impression but we don't tend to jump the opposing pitcher early on.

 

The 2019 Yankees are sure doing that.

[MADSTORK]

Really?

 

The Sox are over .500 now, but you’re predicting they will finish under .500? With your track record for spot on predictions on team performance?

 

Now that stork has chimed in, I am confident this team will win 105 games...

 

 

Vs winning teams you must play .500 ball or better. Cream puff record won’t count come playoff time

[devildavid]

Vs winning teams you must play .500 ball or better. Cream puff record won’t count come playoff time

 

The regular season means nothing come playoff time.

[moonslav59]

The regular season means nothing come playoff time.

 

True, except if the regular season placed you in a WC game instead of a division winner slot.

[devildavid]

True, except if the regular season placed you in a WC game instead of a division winner slot.

 

The postseason is about how you match up with the team you face. You may not have to face your toughest matchups, depending on what the other teams do against each other in the playoffs.