A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Kimmi]

Let's not forget that before these 4 straight losses, we had gone 18-8, including losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros while outscoring them, losing an 11 inning game to Colorado 5-4, and losing 6 of those 8 games by just 1-2 runs.

 

If we go 18-8 again, starting now, how will this board react?

 

You are never as bad as you look when you're team is losing, and never as good as you look when you're winning. We've had some bad games. We've also run into some bad luck and some bad timing as far as when we've played certain teams.

 

We can't expect to make up 5 games in a week. One game at a time.

[Kimmi]

That's when he starts lecturing us about the respective states of our franchises.

 

LOL Truth.

[moonslav59]

You are never as bad as you look when you're team is losing, and never as good as you look when you're winning. We've had some bad games. We've also run into some bad luck and some bad timing as far as when we've played certain teams.

 

We can't expect to make up 5 games in a week. One game at a time.

 

My point was we came pretty close to a 24-2 or 22-4 run, which rivals last year's best run.

 

IMO, I think this team still has a big run in them. We can also win back games slowly.

[oldtimer]

My point was we came pretty close to a 24-2 or 22-4 run, which rivals last year's best run.

 

IMO, I think this team still has a big run in them. We can also win back games slowly.

 

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

[moonslav59]

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

 

3 games back in the wildcard with 5 teams ahead of us is nothing,let alone 2 or 3.

 

1) What makes you think we'll continue playing lackluster ball for the next 100 games? (Especially when all we have to do is just play like we did in May every month goign forward to make the WC,

 

2) How come so many posters can so quickly dismiss last year as being overly lucky, but can't entertain the idea that maybe this year has been bad luck, and that will change?

 

3) Our SP'er look way different over the past 6-7 weeks than the first 2-3 weeks, and maybe Eovaldi can give us a big boost. Is our offense and SP'ing that bad?

 

4) Can a mediocre pen really be enough to keep us from the WC? (Will we not trade for a solid pen arm or two this summer?)

 

[moonslav59]

We'll see if your optimistic thinking is justified. At what point would you believe the Sox are out of it in 2019, should we continue to play lackluster ball? Ten games back in the loss column with 3 teams ahead in the wild card race? I am not saying it will happen just would be interested in how long your optimism would hold up?

 

I'm usually the last to give up, but I know I'm not even close, at this point. This team is too damn good to stay near .500 in a league full of many very bad teams.

 

 

[cp176]

We will be in a battle for the second wildcard and should get it. We saw a very much improving young Tampa Bay team have a very good season last year. They are good and have picked up right where they left off. New York was good and got better during the off season. it is looking likely that almost holding a pat hand and going with what got us there last year minus a couple of key role players isn't going to be enough to beat the Yanks and the Rays over the long course of the season. it wouldn't be a bet I'd take that we will catch either of them. I think that we will get that second wc and anything obviously can happen form there. Reality sucks but there you go.

[oldtimer]

3 games back in the wildcard with 5 teams ahead of us is nothing,let alone 2 or 3.

 

1) What makes you think we'll continue playing lackluster ball for the next 100 games? (Especially when all we have to do is just play like we did in May every month goign forward to make the WC,

 

2) How come so many posters can so quickly dismiss last year as being overly lucky, but can't entertain the idea that maybe this year has been bad luck, and that will change?

 

3) Our SP'er look way different over the past 6-7 weeks than the first 2-3 weeks, and maybe Eovaldi can give us a big boost. Is our offense and SP'ing that bad?

 

4) Can a mediocre pen really be enough to keep us from the WC? (Will we not trade for a solid pen arm or two this summer?)

 

 

What makes me think the lackluster performance could continue is the first two months performance. To dismiss it out of hand in my opinion is overly optimistic. Our BP is shaky and our hitters are more average this year. Could they perform better? Certainly they could but also they could continue as they have for the last couple of months which would mean trouble.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm fairly pessimistic right now because I think this version of the Sox lacks confidence.

 

But I could not be more pleased with the optimistic drumbeat from kimmi and from moonslav.

 

I did not object to DD's decision not to invest heavily in the bullpen, and think they would have been fine were it not for the horrible start by the rotation which, combined with very few off days, put a heavy load on the bullpen. But right now, while I feel no compulsion to get Kimbrel back, I am envious of the Yankees bullpen. I think it is their biggest strength and gives the rest of the team confidence. Thus they are winning lots of games despite many injuries to the lineup.

 

I do think the Sox have the hitting and the rotation to gain ground as long as the bullpen doesn't repeat what happened vs. the Guardians in games 2 and 3.

[Slasher9]

I'm usually the last to give up, but I know I'm not even close, at this point. This team is too damn good to stay near .500 in a league full of many very bad teams.

 

 

 

i never give up. not even when the germans bombed pearl harbor.

until Math eliminates us i dont hear a peep from the fat lady....

[mvp 78]

i never give up. not even when the germans bombed pearl harbor.

until Math eliminates us i dont hear a peep from the fat lady....

 

The Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor, it was an inside job.

[Maxbialystock]

I looked up bullpen salaries with an expectation of proving you can get a pretty darn good one for $30M/year.

 

Wrong. The Yankees have four very good relievers--Brittan, Kahnle, Ottavino, and Chapman--who make a combined $40.4M. Chapman gets $17M, Britton $13M, and Ottavino $9M.

 

And guess what the Sox pay their so-so bullpen? $5.5M total for Barnes, Hembree, Workman, Walden, Brasier, and Weber. Barnes is top dollar at $1.6M and Weber is low with $400K.

 

Obviously, the Yankees can afford to pay more for their bullpen because they are paying less for their lineup and rotation.

[OH FOY]

The thing is the Yanks have Cap space if they want to improve. According to Sportstrac they have 31+million they could still spend before they hit the Luxury Tax threshold.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

Edited June 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

The thing is the Yanks have Cap space if they want to improve. According to Sportstrac they have 31+million they could still spend before they hit the Luxury Tax threshold.

 

They could acquire Scherzer.

[OH FOY]

They could acquire Scherzer.

 

They have kids who are playing every day, who they can Trade now. German, Frazier, Urshela, Byrd, not counting their Minor Leaguers. Tons of Options.

Scherzer Luxury Tax hit is $28,689,376, now probably less.

Edited June 4, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

They have kids who are playing every day, who they can Trade now. German, Frazier, Urshela, Byrd, not counting their Minor Leaguers. Tons of Options.

Scherzer Luxury Tax hit is $28,689,376, now probably less.

 

I don’t think 27yo Gio Urshela or Greg Bird carry all that much trade value.

 

German and Frazier probably do, but certainly not enough to get Scherzer even if you take the whole contract. Not to mention it involves the Nationals triggering a rebuild by acquiring players typically older than ones needed to build.

 

The Yankee farm is headlined by Flovial, who certainly has some appeal. But I think the Nats could do better...

[cp176]

i never give up. not even when the germans bombed pearl harbor.

until Math eliminates us i dont hear a peep from the fat lady....

 

I remember those damn Germans. I agree with you too about the math thing. Even if we don't make the playoffs, somebody here will be able to find statistical evidence that we actually did. LOL

[moonslav59]

By Connor Byrne | June 3, 2019 at 11:18pm CDT

 

Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi could return from the injured list as early as June 15, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe suggests. As Abraham notes, that would mark 52 days since Eovaldi underwent right elbow surgery April 22, at which point he was reportedly supposed to miss four to six weeks. Eovaldi’s absence has deprived Boston of a second-half hero from 2018, someone whose late-season excellence convinced the reigning world champions to bring him back on a four-year, $68MM contract in free agency. The hard-throwing Eovaldi, 29, then came out of the gates slowly prior to his surgery, logging a 6.00 ERA/7.05 FIP with 6.86 K/9 and 4.71 BB/9 over 21 frames and four starts. Still, considering the Red Sox are fighting for a playoff spot and haven’t gotten enough from their rotation in general, Eovaldi’s return should be a welcome one for the club.

[moonslav59]

I remember those damn Germans. I agree with you too about the math thing. Even if we don't make the playoffs, somebody here will be able to find statistical evidence that we actually did. LOL

 

Or, some non stat geek will argue that the lack of team chemistry doomed us from the start. (Apparently, Kimbrel and Kelly were essential clubhouse pieces.)

 

LOL

Edited June 4, 2019 by moonslav59

[cp176]

Or, some non stat geek will argue that the lack of team chemistry doomed us from the start. (Apparently, Kimbrel and Kelly were essential clubhouse pieces.)

 

LOL

 

Watch it now Moon - that could be me you are talking about. I consider you a non-traditional stat geek! lol

[Slasher9]

Or, some non stat geek will argue that the lack of team chemistry doomed us from the start. (Apparently, Kimbrel and Kelly were essential clubhouse pieces.)

 

LOL

 

dont mess with Joe Kelly Fight Club

[Nick]

Red Sox outfield prospect Jarren Duran was promoted to Double-A Portland on Monday.

 

Duran, 22, was Boston’s seventh-round pick in last year’s draft and hit .387/.456/.543 with four homers and 13 doubles for High-A Salem in 50 games to start the year. The former Long Beach State player has risen up prospect boards due to his torrid start and is now ranked as Boston’s No. 3 prospect by SoxProspects.com after starting the season at No. 13.

 

He should be ready by 2021. I thought he was a little guy with all that speed buy he's 6-2. A contact hitter with plus plus speed. He will follow the path of Betts. A 2B converted to outfield.

 

Beni.....Devers....Chavis.....???? I think we'll always be competitive.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox outfield prospect Jarren Duran was promoted to Double-A Portland on Monday.

 

Duran, 22, was Boston’s seventh-round pick in last year’s draft and hit .387/.456/.543 with four homers and 13 doubles for High-A Salem in 50 games to start the year. The former Long Beach State player has risen up prospect boards due to his torrid start and is now ranked as Boston’s No. 3 prospect by SoxProspects.com after starting the season at No. 13.

 

He should be ready by 2021. I thought he was a little guy with all that speed buy he's 6-2. A contact hitter with plus plus speed. He will follow the path of Betts. A 2B converted to outfield.

 

Beni.....Devers....Chavis.....???? I think we'll always be competitive.

 

Realistically, he won't be helping the team in 2019.

[notin]

Realistically, he won't be helping the team in 2019.

 

Unless DD trades him...

[mvp 78]

Unless DD trades him...

 

Super duper doubtful since the Sox are currently hovering around .500. Duran would be a guy to be included in an offseason package. I don't think there's any shot of trading him since the futures of Mookie and JBJ are cloudy at best.

[notin]

Super duper doubtful since the Sox are currently hovering around .500. Duran would be a guy to be included in an offseason package. I don't think there's any shot of trading him since the futures of Mookie and JBJ are cloudy at best.

 

Yeah but then there’s the whole “DD trades prospects “ reputation the man has for well-deserved reasons.

 

Not like 3b was all locked up when he dealt Moncada...

[Nick]

Realistically, he won't be helping the team in 2019.

 

Thus I said 2021.

[Slasher9]

actually if the Sox/DD believe that Jarren's trade value is at it's peak they should pull the trigger now. it is more likely he is lars or trey then it is he is mookie or xander.

[mvp 78]

actually if the Sox/DD believe that Jarren's trade value is at it's peak they should pull the trigger now. it is more likely he is lars or trey then it is he is mookie or xander.

 

When did Trey Ball ever have good trade value though?

[mvp 78]

Thus I said 2021.

 

But you're posting it in the "A Realistic View at 2019 Part I" thread?