A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

Eovaldi faced Holt and Chavis for what amounted to an inning with the coaches, trainers, rotation mates and others watching. He appeared to have the usual giddy-up to his fastball.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

 

Eovaldi faced Holt and Chavis for what amounted to an inning with the coaches, trainers, rotation mates and others watching. He appeared to have the usual giddy-up to his fastball.

 

We could sure use him ASAP!

[MADSTORK]

12 15 vs .500 or better Teams and No Closer, “Priceless”

[moonslav59]

The sky is falling!

[Elktonnick]

12 15 vs .500 or better Teams and No Closer, “Priceless”

 

The team looks listless right now.

[moonslav59]

I'm still very optimistic about the Sox. I think we will go on a long hot streak and turn people's opinions around.

 

Of course, I could be wrong, but I'm still a firm believer.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm still very optimistic about the Sox. I think we will go on a long hot streak and turn people's opinions around.

 

Of course, I could be wrong, but I'm still a firm believer.

 

In this crazy AL, an above average team can look Herculean if you face the O’s, Jays, Royals, White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Or Tigers in a back to back. The Sox are going to win at least 88 games, probably more like 90-92. The best teams in the league might win 110 just because half the league isn’t trying

[moonslav59]

In this crazy AL, an above average team can look Herculean if you face the O’s, Jays, Royals, White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Or Tigers in a back to back. The Sox are going to win at least 88 games, probably more like 90-92. The best teams in the league might win 110 just because half the league isn’t trying

 

I can see you guys winning 108, if you ever get healthy.

 

I'm thinking we win 91-94, but it could be more. We can't wait much longer to turn on the after burners.

[Kimmi]

I'm still very optimistic about the Sox. I think we will go on a long hot streak and turn people's opinions around.

 

Of course, I could be wrong, but I'm still a firm believer.

 

There is still a long way to go in the season.

 

No one should count the Sox out.

 

Back to back to back to back.

[OH FOY]

105 game season at this point.

[Kimmi]

105 game season at this point.

 

That's a lot of time. Teams have blown 7-8 game leads in a month.

 

We have to have patience, though. We are not likely to make up all that ground in a month. It will be a season long process.

[notin]

There is still a long way to go in the season.

 

No one should count the Sox out.

 

Back to back to back to back.

 

A year ago today, the Dodgers were 27-30. I doubt many looked at them and thought “World Series!”

[Kimmi]

A year ago today, the Dodgers were 27-30. I doubt many looked at them and thought “World Series!”

 

Thank you.

[harmony]

That's a lot of time. Teams have blown 7-8 game leads in a month.

 

We have to have patience, though. We are not likely to make up all that ground in a month. It will be a season long process.

FanGraphs currently places the Red Sox postseason chances at 75.1 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

... while FiveThirtyEight places the Sox chances at 56 percent:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

[jacksonianmarch]

It will be far harder to blow leads this year mostly because of the talent differences between contenders and tankers. If you’re gonna make up a deficit, you’re gonna have to beat the team you’re chasing. The Sox could go 9-1 and not gain ground if they don’t face TB or NYY as they could be facing similar shitbags over a 10 game spell.

 

On a side note, I fully expect the owners to do something about this. Baseball had more parity when you had teams around the .500 line who could pop up for a season. Right now, there are 7 teams at or above .500 in the AL with the White Sox, Guardians, A’s and Rangers close to .500. But of those teams, only the A’s actually added to their roster in the offseason. The Guardians subtracted Alonso, Encarnacion, Miller, Allen, Gomes and Brantley and only added back Santana. They’re sub .500 and in a free fall with Kluber on the DL and Bauer throwing like a #3. The White Sox have been hot of late with Giolito finally reaching his potential, but Rodon is out for the year and the rest of the rotation after Lopez is awful. Their offense is also thin beyond Moncada, Abreu and Anderson. The Rangers are seeing Gallo become a superstar, but beyond Minor, they can’t pitch. The Guardians have the look of a team bound to finish near .500. The White Sox and Rangers are going to finish well below .500. The A’s will probably get hot as the season goes along as they typically do. If my prediction serves true, then TB, NYY, BOS, HOU, OAK, and MIN will be the 6 fighting for five spots and the other 9 teams will be tankers. Good luck making up a deficit when Houston and Minnesota are resting players down the stretch due to clinching in early September and the 9 that are out of it are literally trying to lose

[moonslav59]

It will be far harder to blow leads this year mostly because of the talent differences between contenders and tankers. If you’re gonna make up a deficit, you’re gonna have to beat the team you’re chasing. The Sox could go 9-1 and not gain ground if they don’t face TB or NYY as they could be facing similar shitbags over a 10 game spell.

 

On a side note, I fully expect the owners to do something about this. Baseball had more parity when you had teams around the .500 line who could pop up for a season. Right now, there are 7 teams at or above .500 in the AL with the White Sox, Guardians, A’s and Rangers close to .500. But of those teams, only the A’s actually added to their roster in the offseason. The Guardians subtracted Alonso, Encarnacion, Miller, Allen, Gomes and Brantley and only added back Santana. They’re sub .500 and in a free fall with Kluber on the DL and Bauer throwing like a #3. The White Sox have been hot of late with Giolito finally reaching his potential, but Rodon is out for the year and the rest of the rotation after Lopez is awful. Their offense is also thin beyond Moncada, Abreu and Anderson. The Rangers are seeing Gallo become a superstar, but beyond Minor, they can’t pitch. The Guardians have the look of a team bound to finish near .500. The White Sox and Rangers are going to finish well below .500. The A’s will probably get hot as the season goes along as they typically do. If my prediction serves true, then TB, NYY, BOS, HOU, OAK, and MIN will be the 6 fighting for five spots and the other 9 teams will be tankers. Good luck making up a deficit when Houston and Minnesota are resting players down the stretch due to clinching in early September and the 9 that are out of it are literally trying to lose

 

With more sellers at the deadline than ever before, I'd expect the price to drop for players nearing free agency or moderate to high-priced players.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, the supply side will be high which should drop some demand. What it does, though, is create multiple super teams by Aug 1. That doesn’t do baseball good either.

 

What I’d propose is a 3 sucks and you’re our rule. 3 straight seasons below a .400 win percentage and your entire draft slot drops 10 spots. Not just your first round pick, EVERY pick drops 10 spots. You wanna tank 3 straight years? Enjoy a mediocre as f*** draft spot. See how that feels. The players would LOVE that as it would spur teams in a rebuild to open their wallets for fear of falling too far back.

[jacksonianmarch]

And if that rule was in effect starting before 2017, the Tigers would be at risk this year. They’ve been below .400 two straight and it looks like a 3rd straight is possible with them at .407 before they sell off parts

[moonslav59]

Yeah, the supply side will be high which should drop some demand. What it does, though, is create multiple super teams by Aug 1. That doesn’t do baseball good either.

 

What I’d propose is a 3 sucks and you’re our rule. 3 straight seasons below a .400 win percentage and your entire draft slot drops 10 spots. Not just your first round pick, EVERY pick drops 10 spots. You wanna tank 3 straight years? Enjoy a mediocre as f*** draft spot. See how that feels. The players would LOVE that as it would spur teams in a rebuild to open their wallets for fear of falling too far back.

 

...or mandate a 20% increase in payroll every year until you finish above .400.

[jacksonianmarch]

They can always spend on nobodies and still tank. The Tigers would have been FAR more active this past offseason if they knew the risk was there. Tanking teams want two things. To trim payroll and more importantly, the early draft picks and high draft pools. Hit them in the latter and they’re gonna do something

[notin]

They can always spend on nobodies and still tank. The Tigers would have been FAR more active this past offseason if they knew the risk was there. Tanking teams want two things. To trim payroll and more importantly, the early draft picks and high draft pools. Hit them in the latter and they’re gonna do something

 

The idea of spending on nobodies is typically to give them short term deals and flip them mid season for minor leaguers...

[moonslav59]

They can always spend on nobodies and still tank. The Tigers would have been FAR more active this past offseason if they knew the risk was there. Tanking teams want two things. To trim payroll and more importantly, the early draft picks and high draft pools. Hit them in the latter and they’re gonna do something

 

They may guess wrong on free agents, but they would not intentionally spend on nobodies.

[moonslav59]

The idea of spending on nobodies is typically to give them short term deals and flip them mid season for minor leaguers...

 

The mandate could be to spend 20% more and stay there all season.

[jacksonianmarch]

The draft penalty is far better. There’s no way you can tally extra expenses and designate those players as untradeable. I guess they could up their spending by 30% at season’s start and then deal off parts that increases overall spending by 20%, but that’s not the goal here. The owners goal is to have a semi competitive team. The players goal is to up salaries.

 

Look at this year. If the Tigers knew they were facing a penalty as they would under my plan, they’d have been in hard on Kimbrel and Keuchel. No question. Adding Keuchel and Kimbrel to that dumpster fire would have absolutely improved that club and would probably keep them from being a 98 game loser again. The goal for the owners is competitive teams. Fans don’t show for non competitive teams. Fans for the competitive teams beating the snot out of the bad teams don’t show. Fans from the teams getting steamrolled don’t show. Overall, it’s a revenue killer.

 

You could use both criteria. If a team is a 60% loser two years in a row, they must either avoid losing 60% of their games or show an overall increase in payroll by 20% to avoid a draft penalty

[moonslav59]

The draft penalty is far better. There’s no way you can tally extra expenses and designate those players as untradeable. I guess they could up their spending by 30% at season’s start and then deal off parts that increases overall spending by 20%, but that’s not the goal here. The owners goal is to have a semi competitive team. The players goal is to up salaries.

 

Look at this year. If the Tigers knew they were facing a penalty as they would under my plan, they’d have been in hard on Kimbrel and Keuchel. No question. Adding Keuchel and Kimbrel to that dumpster fire would have absolutely improved that club and would probably keep them from being a 98 game loser again. The goal for the owners is competitive teams. Fans don’t show for non competitive teams. Fans for the competitive teams beating the snot out of the bad teams don’t show. Fans from the teams getting steamrolled don’t show. Overall, it’s a revenue killer.

 

You could use both criteria. If a team is a 60% loser two years in a row, they must either avoid losing 60% of their games or show an overall increase in payroll by 20% to avoid a draft penalty

 

Sounds better.

[vegasbob]

A year ago today, the Dodgers were 27-30. I doubt many looked at them and thought “World Series!”

 

This fact is worth Notin(g), Of course, the Dodgers then met the Grim Reapers of 2018. Also the 1978 images are burned in my memory, along with Papelbon and dildo Crawford in 2011.

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs currently places the Red Sox postseason chances at 75.1 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

... while FiveThirtyEight places the Sox chances at 56 percent:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

I have changed my October penciling in to ink.

 

The Sox got this.

[vegasbob]

I have changed my October penciling in to ink.

 

The Sox got this.

 

Kimmi, Projections are like potential. Great to have but at some point , one has to actualize, or others need to fail more miserably. To date, the Red Sox have shown only brief glimpses of operating as a strong unit on all 3 aspects of the game. If you have it, show it once in a while. Play .500 all June, and you'll still have a better than 50-50 chance of the play in game.

[moonslav59]

Another sad night for the Sox. We keep missing chances- over and over again.

 

When Sandy Leon is the only guy getting key hits, you know something is going on.

 

Nobody is picking it up.

 

I've been waiting and waiting. We got a little tease a couple weeks back, but then this.

 

I'm not giving up by a long shot, but this is disgusting.

[oldtimer]

Another sad night for the Sox. We keep missing chances- over and over again.

 

When Sandy Leon is the only guy getting key hits, you know something is going on.

 

Nobody is picking it up.

 

I've been waiting and waiting. We got a little tease a couple weeks back, but then this.

 

I'm not giving up by a long shot, but this is disgusting.

 

I think you have been overly optimistic. Look at our table setters and what they have done of late. Look at JDM. We relied on those guys last year to produce and they are way off their games so far . We know we have problems in other areas but to have problems scoring with runners in scoring poosition, striking out at a high rate, and only having a couple guys producing at any time is a major weakness. This season is close to a lost cause and we are only in June. There aren't any easy answers other than the club seems to need motivation and it isn't happening. Where will it come from, Cora?