A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[S5Dewey]

Most people agree with Ted Williams that the most difficult skill in all sports is hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely. I happen to think a pitcher has to be able to throw hard, throw accurately--way more accurately than any knife thrower ever because none of them threw from 66 feet--and do both with a variety of spins.

 

That's my explanation for the rise and fall of pitchers, except for those few who are born with great control. It's also why starters, who throw 100 pitches per game--get the big bucks when they show some consistency.

 

Yes, ^this^. While in theory it sounds like hitting a sphere with a cylinder squarely enough to even put it in play sounds like the most difficult thing in baseball it completely rules out what a pitcher has to do.

 

Something I learned from watching the "Amieker pitch zone" (as Jerry says ) is that pitchers seldom throw a ball to the center of the plate. Instead they pitch to spots, depending on a hitter's perceived weakness, and they have to do it from 60+ feet away with a variety of spins on the ball to make the ball do what they want it to do over than 60' span.

 

Then, if you have any belief in "clutch" (which is now spoken of as "high leverage situations" ), they frequently have to do it with runners on base when one small mistake often has serious consequences.

 

If a hitter makes a mistake two times in three chances in high leverage situations, oh well, he's still a good hitter. If a pitcher does that it's likely he's back in AAA.

Edited May 27, 2019 by S5Dewey

[OH FOY]

That Thornburg Trade was a killer. Shaw would be here, and good chance Dubon might be starting at 2nd base.

Part of that Trade we gave up a young DSL kid, Yeison Coca. Now might not be much, but at this point he is starting SS at Single A Wisconsin. Up to this point he has a .275 BA, and just turned 20 years old, a couple of days ago.

Edited May 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

That Thornburg Trade was a killer. Shaw would be here, and good chance Dubon might be starting at 2nd base.

Part of that Trade we gave up a young DSL kid, Yeison Coca. Now might not be much, but at this point he is starting SS at Single A Wisconsin. Up to this point he has a .275 BA, and just 20 years old.

 

We wouldn't want Shaw here this year. He's hitting .163 and is on the IL.

[OH FOY]

How about off-season for a Trade? Before this year. Point of it is he would be here. What's Thornburg going to get you? Edited May 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

How about off-season for a Trade? Before this year. Point of it is he would be here. What's Thornburg going to get you?

 

Yeah, I know. Just trying to make us feel better about Shaw in a miserable, Schadenfreude-ish way.

[oldtimer]

If we take a realistic view of the season, it appears the Yankees will play .65 ball with the rest of the league and we need to match that. In addition, head to head, we need to win the two series in May and June enough to pick up a couple of games. Coming into July down by 4 1/2 games would not look like an insurmountable challenge. Clearly we cannot afford to lose further ground and expect to catch the Yankees. Even the Rays will be a stubborn obstacle for us making the playoffs.

[d-money]

If we take a realistic view of the season, it appears the Yankees will play .65 ball with the rest of the league and we need to match that. In addition, head to head, we need to win the two series in May and June enough to pick up a couple of games. Coming into July down by 4 1/2 games would not look like an insurmountable challenge. Clearly we cannot afford to lose further ground and expect to catch the Yankees. Even the Rays will be a stubborn obstacle for us making the playoffs.

 

The Yankees have played a cupcake schedule the first half of the season. It has to get tougher in the second. This team hasn’t shown the ability to beat these contenders. This is a big week for them. They need to stop this inconsistent play and get on a winning streak.

[vegasbob]

If we take a realistic view of the season, it appears the Yankees will play .65 ball with the rest of the league and we need to match that. In addition, head to head, we need to win the two series in May and June enough to pick up a couple of games. Coming into July down by 4 1/2 games would not look like an insurmountable challenge. Clearly we cannot afford to lose further ground and expect to catch the Yankees. Even the Rays will be a stubborn obstacle for us making the playoffs.

 

Maybe it is time for the ultimate payback ....1978. Let's get way behind then blow them out in a one-gamer.

[vegasbob]

Yeah, I know. Just trying to make us feel better about Shaw in a miserable, Schadenfreude-ish way.

 

Shaw and Middlebrooks each had an early flash that showed great promise which eventually burned out and sent them out of Boston. Shaw had the one good year in Milwaukee, but no more. Panda flashed elsewhere and got very fat and lazy in Boston. Now to the contrary, Devers appears to be improving in all aspects of his game which is very welcome.

 

If there is a key to avoiding the flash in pan rookie and projecting HoF at 23 , I hope the Sox apply it to Michael Chavis and further develop a long term successful player at whatever position, including DH if necessary.

[vegasbob]

With the bullpen in need of some help after being heavily worked yesterday, the Red Sox today recalled LHP Darwinzon Hernandez, our no. 2 prospect, from @PortlandSeaDogs . RHP Colten Brewer optioned to @PawSox as the countermove.

 

I love it when a kid gets a chance.....Let the Darwinzon era start.

 

That didn't last long. Holt up-Darwinzon down. His shot will come soon enough.

[harmony]

Shaw and Middlebrooks each had an early flash that showed great promise which eventually burned out and sent them out of Boston. Shaw had the one good year in Milwaukee, but no more. Panda flashed elsewhere and got very fat and lazy in Boston. Now to the contrary, Devers appears to be improving in all aspects of his game which is very welcome.

 

If there is a key to avoiding the flash in pan rookie and projecting HoF at 23 , I hope the Sox apply it to Michael Chavis and further develop a long term successful player at whatever position, including DH if necessary.

Travis Shaw had seasons of 3.9 and 4.1 bWAR (and 3.5 and 3.6 fWAR) in Milwaukee.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shawtr01.shtml

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11982&position=3B

Edited May 27, 2019 by harmony

[OH FOY]

Bill Buckner passed away, Wow, only 69.

[fxkatt]

Bill Buckner passed away, Wow, only 69.

 

He died of same illness that Robin Williams had. A bad form of Parkinson's. One of my favorite players from that period.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have played a cupcake schedule the first half of the season. It has to get tougher in the second. This team hasn’t shown the ability to beat these contenders. This is a big week for them. They need to stop this inconsistent play and get on a winning streak.

 

Look at the AL and tell me if anyone has a tough schedule. In the AL, 6 of the 15 teams are over .500. 2 are at .500. Yes, we played the O’s a ton, but we haven't played Toronto yet either and we have what, 18 or 19 vs them? The crazy thing is, in this division, we will play 38 games vs .500+ teams. We will play the same amount with abysmal squads. The Twins and Astros look like the cream elsewhere with the Yanks already playing them once already. The inter league schedule looks awful as well with the NL East being abysmal

[moonslav59]

Bill Buckner passed away, Wow, only 69.

 

RIP, Bill.

[vegasbob]

Buckner succumbs to his disease and Pedey effectively "retires" as an active player on the same day. Glad that Bill was able to eventually get reconciliation with Boston over the '86 WS. He did not lose game 6 nor 7. Lots of other failures brough that disappointing result.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Reports...

 

 

The Red Sox shifted injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day injured list on Monday after he suffered yet another setback in his problematic left knee. Pedroia met with reporters afterward to discuss his future, revealing he’s unsure if he’ll be able to resume his career.

 

“I’m at a point right now where I need some time. That’s what my status is,” Pedroia told Rob Bradford of WEEI and other media. Asked if he’ll play again, Pedroia said, “I’m not sure.”

 

One thing is clear, according to Pedroia: Another surgical procedure is off the table. The 35-year-old has gone under the knife twice dating back to October 2016, but neither knee surgery has helped him stay on the field. Pedroia missed all but three regular-season games during Boston’s World Series-winning campaign in 2018 and has only appeared in six this year.

 

With it looking as if Pedroia won’t play again in 2019, he’s set to take an “indefinite break” from rehabbing his knee, which he doesn’t believe will ever heal (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).

 

“Time will go on and I’ll know more about it,” Pedroia said. “I haven’t sat down and thought about retirement. I just now that right now I need a break from the everyday stresses and dealing what I’m dealing with.”

 

If we have seen the last of Pedroia on the diamond, it’ll mark the end of a borderline Hall of Fame career. A second-round pick of the Red Sox in 2004, the diminutive Pedroia burst on the scene in 2007, his first full season, en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. All he has done since then is win an AL MVP (2008), earn four All-Star berths and help the Red Sox to two World Series championships, among other accomplishments. To this point, Pedroia’s a .299/.365/.439 hitter (115 wRC+) with 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases and 51.7 rWAR/46.7 fWAR.

 

Thanks to the brilliance Pedroia displayed over his first several seasons, the Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $110MM extension in July 2013. Including this season’s $15MM salary, he’s still owed $40MM on that deal through 2021. Now, six years after Pedroia inked the first-ever nine-figure pact for a second baseman, his playing career may be over.

[moonslav59]

That didn't last long. Holt up-Darwinzon down. His shot will come soon enough.

 

True.

 

Now, we go with 12 pitchers.

 

Pedey is done for the year...

 

The Red Sox shifted injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day injured list on Monday after he suffered yet another setback in his problematic left knee. Pedroia met with reporters afterward to discuss his future, revealing he’s unsure if he’ll be able to resume his career.

 

“I’m at a point right now where I need some time. That’s what my status is,” Pedroia told Rob Bradford of WEEI and other media. Asked if he’ll play again, Pedroia said, “I’m not sure.”

 

One thing is clear, according to Pedroia: Another surgical procedure is off the table. The 35-year-old has gone under the knife twice dating back to October 2016, but neither knee surgery has helped him stay on the field. Pedroia missed all but three regular-season games during Boston’s World Series-winning campaign in 2018 and has only appeared in six this year.

 

With it looking as if Pedroia won’t play again in 2019, he’s set to take an “indefinite break” from rehabbing his knee, which he doesn’t believe will ever heal (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).

 

“Time will go on and I’ll know more about it,” Pedroia said. “I haven’t sat down and thought about retirement. I just now that right now I need a break from the everyday stresses and dealing what I’m dealing with.”

 

If we have seen the last of Pedroia on the diamond, it’ll mark the end of a borderline Hall of Fame career. A second-round pick of the Red Sox in 2004, the diminutive Pedroia burst on the scene in 2007, his first full season, en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. All he has done since then is win an AL MVP (2008), earn four All-Star berths and help the Red Sox to two World Series championships, among other accomplishments. To this point, Pedroia’s a .299/.365/.439 hitter (115 wRC+) with 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases and 51.7 rWAR/46.7 fWAR.

 

Thanks to the brilliance Pedroia displayed over his first several seasons, the Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $110MM extension in July 2013. Including this season’s $15MM salary, he’s still owed $40MM on that deal through 2021. Now, six years after Pedroia inked the first-ever nine-figure pact for a second baseman, his playing career may be over.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

With the Pedey decision now gone for 2019 (or at least 60 days), and Holt now on the 25, the only roster issues are with the pitching staff.

 

On IL:

Eovaldi

Johnson

Thornburg

(Brewer & Maddox)

 

Possibly Worthy of a Call-Up at Some Point:

Poyner

DHernandez

Shawaryn

J Mejia

J Taylor

J Smith

E Ramirez

 

Candidates for demotion (have options)

Lakins

Weber (not if he keeps doing well)

Velazquez

 

Out of options (DFA/Trade):

Thornburg & Johnson

 

[cp176]

Buckner succumbs to his disease and Pedey effectively "retires" as an active player on the same day. Glad that Bill was able to eventually get reconciliation with Boston over the '86 WS. He did not lose game 6 nor 7. Lots of other failures brough that disappointing result.

 

Bill Buckner was an outstanding ball player who had an outstanding and long career. I don't pretend to know what or what not Red Sox fans remember historically but in no way did that miscue sully the career of this guy. He was a good one. i'm glad that I was around to see him play for quite some time.

[moonslav59]

Bill Buckner was an outstanding ball player who had an outstanding and long career. I don't pretend to know what or what not Red Sox fans remember historically but in no way did that miscue sully the career of this guy. He was a good one. i'm glad that I was around to see him play for quite some time.

 

Well said.

 

I enjoyed watching Buckner play.

 

The man could hit, even after the knee issues. He was a top defender, too, when healthy.

 

The only sullied person was McNamara, who did not replace Buckner with Stapleton, as he did often during the season- for defensive purposes.

 

McNamara still defends the decision...

 

"The case is that Buckner was the best first baseman I had," said McNamara. "And Dave Stapleton has taken enough shots at me since [then] that he didn't get in that ball game, but Dave Stapleton's nickname was 'Shakey.' And you know what that implies. I didn't want him playing first base to end that game, and it was not any sentimental thing that I had for Billy Buck to leave him out there. He was the best first baseman I had."

[OH FOY]

Adam Lau is the kid you want to keep eye out in Pawtucket. Now that he was promoted Feltman is now the Closer in Portland. And just as I write this Feltman blows a save for Portland today. Portland won it in the Bottom of 9th, on a 3 Run HR by Matheny, so Feltman gets the win. haha

No Grand slam by Matheny.

Edited May 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Just heard Bill Buckner never struck out 3 times in a game.

 

WOW!

[cp176]

Well said.

 

I enjoyed watching Buckner play.

 

The man could hit, even after the knee issues. He was a top defender, too, when healthy.

 

The only sullied person was McNamara, who did not replace Buckner with Stapleton, as he did often during the season- for defensive purposes.

 

McNamara still defends the decision...

 

"The case is that Buckner was the best first baseman I had," said McNamara. "And Dave Stapleton has taken enough shots at me since [then] that he didn't get in that ball game, but Dave Stapleton's nickname was 'Shakey.' And you know what that implies. I didn't want him playing first base to end that game, and it was not any sentimental thing that I had for Billy Buck to leave him out there. He was the best first baseman I had."

 

I agree

[harmony]

The Yankees have played a cupcake schedule the first half of the season. It has to get tougher in the second. This team hasn’t shown the ability to beat these contenders. This is a big week for them. They need to stop this inconsistent play and get on a winning streak.

Neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees have played a particularly difficult schedule to date this season:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

[fxkatt]

The season is now one-third over. 29-25 not bad at all after those opening series out west. Question marks with the starters, but when they pitch, they look plenty good, and the line-up has come all the way around to where they should be (which helps the weak defense links)

 

I expect the playoffs with 93-94 wins, but most likely we will have to accept the play-in game with perhaps TB or Oakland. Perhaps our critical focus will be on out-winning either of these two to get that pivotal home advantage.

[moonslav59]

The season is now one-third over. 29-25 not bad at all after those opening series out west. Question marks with the starters, but when they pitch, they look plenty good, and the line-up has come all the way around to where they should be (which helps the weak defense links)

 

I expect the playoffs with 93-94 wins, but most likely we will have to accept the play-in game with perhaps TB or Oakland. Perhaps our critical focus will be on out-winning either of these two to get that pivotal home advantage.

 

I'm not giving up on the division or best record in MLB, but the WC doesn't scare me.

 

Updated OPS after today:

 

.924 JD

.915 Chavis

.893 Devers

.884 Betts

.873 Bogey

.870 Moreland

.824 Vaz

.754 Beni

.609 Leon

.552 JBJ

.497 Pearce

.493 Nunez

 

 

[fxkatt]

I'm not giving up on the division or best record in MLB, but the WC doesn't scare me.

 

Updated OPS after today:

 

.924 JD

.915 Chavis

.893 Devers

.884 Betts

.873 Bogey

.870 Moreland

.824 Vaz

.754 Beni

.609 Leon

.552 JBJ

.497 Pearce

.493 Nunez

 

 

 

I'm not giving up, but we have to think the all-aboard Yanks are better than the half-Yanks we've seen in the first third of the season. However, if we can take 3-4 this weekend in NY, that would tell the baseball world that we are still around.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS by Position (not counting today's game):

 

2019 Position 2018

 

.751 C .547 +.204

.900 3B .699 +.201

 

.870 SS .870 +.003

 

.655 2B .692 -037

.732 1B .732 -.042

.759 LF .820 -.061

 

.820 DH .942 -.122

 

.887 RF 1.078 -.195

.520 CF .717 -.197

[jacksonianmarch]

Cora rearranged his rotation for the Yankee series. I wish Boone would do that same. With Price throwing less than an inning, he’s good for tomorrow. Instead of Sale Wednesday, Cora goes with Weber and he gets to align Sale, ERod, Porcello, and Price vs NY