A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[cp176]

i think this was sent across the bow of another poster....

but you probably deserve it too!

 

I'm pretty sure that I deserve most of what i get! lol

[cp176]

Oh cp.

 

What makes you think that was a shot at you? (It wasn’t.)

 

 

I'm sorry notin . Most of the shots people take at me I'm pretty sure I deserve. I do wish for real that I could let go of some of these piddling issues but I have too much passion for the game I guess.

[cp176]

Nuanced and tortuous as this debate has grown to be, I believe you may (I think possibly) perhaps be missing an abstruse layer of irony in N's assertions.

 

This commentary is far above my pay grade jad. I was just a teacha - you know "one of those who can't"

[cp176]

I'd like JD up 4th, but I have no issues with Cora's line-ups or anything else.

I still think he's the best ever!

 

 

I kind of agree with yout and I would really agree with you if the bottom of our order starts to get on base more often. when Leon and Bradley bat 8 and 9, I like JD getting a chance to come to the plate in the first inning.

[cp176]

i love JDM 3rd.

 

 

I love him in the morning and in the afternoon ... (the periods of ellipsis are not for notin) - I wish that we could clone him and bat him in every spot in the order.

[Slasher9]

I love him in the morning and in the afternoon ... (the periods of ellipsis are not for notin) - I wish that we could clone him and bat him in every spot in the order.

 

i do find his weird ass sucking thumb routine before every pitch annoying as all hell.

[mvp 78]

Because the nerds in the analytics department didn’t play baseball and therefore cannot understand the game at the same level as someone who might have played maybe in high school (or maybe not) but at least watched a lot of games on TV and therefore can speak for all managers and MLB players.

 

Got it?

 

But what about people who have extensive scouting of high school players because they have nothing better to do with their lives than watch high school baseball?!?!?!?

[notin]

But what about people who have extensive scouting of high school players because they have nothing better to do with their lives than watch high school baseball?!?!?!?

 

 

Would you be thinking of someone “Who Shall Not Be Named”?

[S5Dewey]

Would you be thinking of someone “Who Shall Not Be Named”?

 

Some people get out of the house and watch baseball, whatever the level. Others sit in front of their computers all day.

[Maxbialystock]

But what about people who have extensive scouting of high school players because they have nothing better to do with their lives than watch high school baseball?!?!?!?

 

Like clint eastwood and amy adams?

[dgalehouse]

We are blessed to have here some very smart posters . Sabermetric savants , if you will . We can learn much from them if only we try . We do owe them a big debt of gratitude , even if they can be a pain in the ass with their smug sense of superiority and condescending ******** .

[harmony]

Some people get out of the house and watch baseball, whatever the level. Others sit in front of their computers all day.

Some do both.

 

This year I've been to two NCAA Division III games, one NCAA Division I game and three MLB games (a fourth coming up tomorrow night in San Diego). I confess I don't wander down the street to take in the noisy commotion surrounding the Little League and high school softball games at the park.

 

I still spend too much time in front of a computer.

[S5Dewey]

Some do both.

 

This year I've been to two NCAA Division III games, one NCAA Division I game and three MLB games (a fourth coming up tomorrow night in San Diego). I confess I don't wander down the street to take in the noisy commotion surrounding the Little League and high school softball games at the park.

 

I still spend too much time in front of a computer.

 

I am humbled. In the past week I've been to one Sea Dogs game, two NCAA Div.1 Games, two D3 games (the conference tourney is close by) two high school games and one HS softball game. I'm planning on a HS game tomorrow (weather permitting) and a D1 game on Saturday.

 

And I still spend too much time in front of my computer.

[Nick]

Player Team W L ERA▲ G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG WHIP

 

Walden, M BOS 5 0 1.46 15 0 0 0 24.2 12 6 4 2 5 30 .140 0.69

 

I realize he's no spring chicken at age 30. But Walden has reinvented himself with a new pitch this year and also changed from 2 to 4 seamer (or vice versa, can't remember).

 

What divine intervention is Thornburg waiting on? Nothing seems to be working for him. Cora stated there was a bit of urgency for Thornburg to pitch well in Spring Training. Apparently he's always been a slow starter. Well he had another bad spring. Are we simply going to keep him because we have $1M+ committed?

 

It's time we let him go. Everyday he's on the roster is a reminder of bad trade with Milwaukee.

 

Give someone else a chance. Maybe there's a Chavis in the minors that will serve the pen.

 

I see that Vaz is now up to.294 BA and .838 OPS......not too shabby.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Nick

[Kimmi]

I agree with you.

 

Now, it must be said that cp is right about the thing he keeps harping on, which is that Cora is fine with JDM hitting third in spite of analytics which show that third is for your fifth-best hitter.

 

Here's the point about batting order that I have said over and over, but people seem to keep overlooking. It just doesn't make that much of a difference. It doesn't make enough of a difference to worry about little tweaks, like whether a guy bats 1st or 2nd, or whether a guy bats 3rd or 4th. It is more advantageous to put guys in a spot where they feel comfortable. Here is a great example of where analytics people favor the human element.

 

Is that what Cora is doing? I don't know. But Cora, being the analytics guy that he is, knows enough to know that.

[notin]

We are blessed to have here some very smart posters . Sabermetric savants , if you will . We can learn much from them if only we try . We do owe them a big debt of gratitude , even if they can be a pain in the ass with their smug sense of superiority and condescending ******** .

 

But give them this. They never say those who don’t agree with them are ruining baseball...

[Kimmi]

Sincere question for anybody who wants to answer it.

 

When was the last time you let stats change your opinion about a player or about your view of some aspect of baseball, like batting order or line up protection? Or do we only think stats are useful if they support our opinion?

[notin]

Some people get out of the house and watch baseball, whatever the level. Others sit in front of their computers all day.

 

 

Yes but most of them who do so are not He Who Shall Not Be Named (who isn’t you, unless you also think “Prune Face” Henry is cheap and spends too much money on his trophy wife that should be earmarked for the Sox).

[notin]

Sincere question for anybody who wants to answer it.

 

When was the last time you let stats change your opinion about a player or about your view of some aspect of baseball, like batting order or line up protection? Or do we only think stats are useful if they support our opinion?

 

 

My last time was when I decided that while Bradley is an outstanding defensive CF, I think playing next to Betts is creating a defensive overkill and his defense alone in this case might not justify his lackluster offense. Previously I felt he could hit .100 and be worth it, but I’m not so sure anymore...

[Kimmi]

My last time was when I decided that while Bradley is an outstanding defensive CF, I think playing next to Betts is creating a defensive overkill and his defense alone in this case might not justify his lackluster offense. Previously I felt he could hit .100 and be worth it, but I’m not so sure anymore...

 

Was that a case where you believed something, and stats told a different story?

[Kimmi]

Here's where I'm getting at.

 

As recently as when the Sox were getting ready to sign Adrian Gonzalez, I was a firm believer in line up protection. I remember making posts (on another site) about how much better Gonzalez could be in the Sox line up with all the protection he'd have around him, as opposed to the weak San Diego line up he was coming from.

 

Then I read about how line up protection was largely a myth, with the statistical analysis to back up that claim. I changed my opinion on something I firmly believed in.

 

Once upon a time, I also firmly believed in clutch, momentum, speedy base runner on first hurting the defense, etc. etc. etc. I have changed my opinion on all of those things based on analytics.

[moonslav59]

My last time was when I decided that while Bradley is an outstanding defensive CF, I think playing next to Betts is creating a defensive overkill and his defense alone in this case might not justify his lackluster offense. Previously I felt he could hit .100 and be worth it, but I’m not so sure anymore...

 

I still think he can hit between .550 and .650 and still be a plus. I don't think .450 is sustainable.

[S5Dewey]

My last time was when I decided that while Bradley is an outstanding defensive CF, I think playing next to Betts is creating a defensive overkill and his defense alone in this case might not justify his lackluster offense. Previously I felt he could hit .100 and be worth it, but I’m not so sure anymore...

 

But as I said yesterday (?), that only works when JBJ has Mookie beside him. With out Mookie beside him JBJ becomes a lot more valuable. Like when JDM is out there .

 

For all the talk we have about the Red Sox having possibly the best defensive outfield in baseball it centers around that guy in CF. He covers the ground and lets the corner OF's play a little closer to the lines.

[Bellhorn04]

I still think he can hit between .550 and .650 and still be a plus. I don't think .450 is sustainable.

 

Here is where I actually place a lot of reliance on WAR. JBJ had a 2.8 fWAR last year with a .717 OPS. You would think if the OPS was .650 the fWAR would be pretty low.

[jad]

This commentary is far above my pay grade jad. I was just a teacha - you know "one of those who can't"

 

Ha. Me too. That's why we have all this time on our hands to read sports boards.

[moonslav59]

Here is where I actually place a lot of reliance on WAR. JBJ had a 2.8 fWAR last year with a .717 OPS. You would think if the OPS was .650 the fWAR would be pretty low.

 

You think dropping .067 would turn a 2.8 WAR to 0.0 or worse?

 

(Note: I also think JBJ's defense is under represented in WAR, but that's just my opinion.)

[notin]

Was that a case where you believed something, and stats told a different story?

 

 

Maybe not the last time, but defensive metrics used to tell me Alfonso Soriano and Matt Holliday were good outfielders. No way,

Soriano played here in Chicago and never learned to play the Wall. He also had a bout with defensive yips so bad he got ovations for catching routine pop ups.

 

And Holliday was just awful, one of the worst I’ve ever seen. The man could not catch a cold if he was naked in Norway...

[notin]

But as I said yesterday (?), that only works when JBJ has Mookie beside him. With out Mookie beside him JBJ becomes a lot more valuable. Like when JDM is out there .

 

 

 

This is true.

 

And at some point, the Sox might have to choose one or the other. And I like Bradley, but I hope it isn’t him...

[moonslav59]

Maybe not the last time, but defensive metrics used to tell me Alfonso Soriano and Matt Holliday were good outfielders. No way,

Soriano played here in Chicago and never learned to play the Wall. He also had a bout with defensive yips so bad he got ovations for catching routine pop ups.

 

And Holliday was just awful, one of the worst I’ve ever seen. The man could not catch a cold if he was naked in Norway...

 

Those two cases gave metrics a bad name, and it still is a mystery how they both ended up with numbers that defied the eyes. I've never heard a plausible reason for why the came out looking so much better than we all know they were.

 

I can understand that maybe they weren't as bad as the eyes showed they were, but the metrics seemed way off for both of them.

[oldtimer]

I still think he can hit between .550 and .650 and still be a plus. I don't think .450 is sustainable.

 

I have been an advocate of looking for a suitable replacement for a couple of years. Surely JBJ has value defensively, but his OPS is awful. For the money, maybe we could do better or if this kid Jarren Duran is for real, maybe we have a kid for less money who will become a better player than JBJ for next season. We need to find $ savings in order to keep our stars, so he may well be an alternative.