A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

Attendance is down the most for teams that are tanking , aka " rebuilding " . The most logical explanation is that people simply don't want to pay to watch an inferior product. There may be other factors at work also .

[Slasher9]

Attendance is down the most for teams that are tanking , aka " rebuilding " . The most logical explanation is that people simply don't want to pay to watch an inferior product. There may be other factors at work also .

 

Trumpfs tax plan cost me an extra $3k this year. there's that. i'm not sure i will be making my annual trip to Fenway this year.

i was honestly shocked how empty Baltimore was the past 3 nights. especially last night with sale on the bump. Sad!

[mvp 78]

Trumpfs tax plan cost me an extra $3k this year. there's that. i'm not sure i will be making my annual trip to Fenway this year.

i was honestly shocked how empty Baltimore was the past 3 nights. especially last night with sale on the bump. Sad!

 

Baltimore has been empty a lot the past decade or so. Nice park, but s***** baseball to watch. I'm not surprised that baseball's attendance is down. The sport is too slow and fewer kids play little league now. Once the boomers start dying off in droves, this sport is going to see a massive correction.

[notin]

Attendance is down the most for teams that are tanking , aka " rebuilding " . The most logical explanation is that people simply don't want to pay to watch an inferior product. There may be other factors at work also .

 

Teams really don’t even rebuild any more. They just try to save money.

 

Miami traded two players who won back-to-back MVPs and the best prospect they got in return was ranked below Chavis and Groome at the time...

[moonslav59]

We're 1.5 GB the Guardians for the last wild card slot, and they just lost kluber.

 

We're 3.0 behind the Yanks (4 in loss column).

 

We're 5.0 behind the Rays (6 in loss column).

 

Last 10:

 

8-2 Sox

6-4 TBR

6-4 NYY

4-6 CLE

[Oscars]

Kinda like kelly without the $25M price tag.

 

Even in my wildest dreams I could never imagine Hembree being capable of what Kelly produced in the 2018 playoffs .

[moonslav59]

Even in my wildest dreams I could never imagine Hembree being capable of what Kelly produced in the 2018 playoffs .

 

2018 Playoff ERA

 

0.00 Hembree

0.79 Kelly

 

Although Kelly had 11.1 IP to Hembree's 4.2 (no hits but 5 BBs).

Edited May 10, 2019 by moonslav59

[Michigan adam]

We're 1.5 GB the Guardians for the last wild card slot, and they just lost kluber.

 

We're 3.0 behind the Yanks (4 in loss column).

 

We're 5.0 behind the Rays (6 in loss column).

 

Last 10:

 

8-2 Sox

6-4 TBR

6-4 NYY

4-6 CLE

 

6-13 the first 19 games. 13-6 the last 19. Certainly headed in the right direction.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox OPS

 

Over 99 PAs

.912 Betts

.858 JDM

.826 Moreland

.822 Vazquez

.813 Beni

.803 Bogey

.783 Devers

.409 JBJ

 

19-98 PAs

1.060 Chavis (71)

.695 Swihart (29)

.573 Lin (22)

.546 Leon (28)

.459 Nunez (61)

.273 Holt (19)

.243 Pedey (21)

 

IP Pitcher ERA

44 Sale 4.50

37 Porcello 5.11

37 ERod 5.40

36 Price 3.75

 

22 Velazquez 4.03

21 Eovaldi 6.00

20 Walden 1.77

18 Workman 1.53

17 Hembree 3.63

16 Brasier 3.45

15 Barnes 1.76

15 Thornburg 7.98

14 Brewer 5.79

 

6 Johnson 12.71

4 J Smith 8.31

4 Weber 0.00

3 E Ramirez 12.00

3 Lakins 3.38

2 D Hernandez 0.00

1 Poyner 18.00

1 Nunez 9.00

 

Walden+Workman+Hembree: 2.28 ERA

55.1 IP

14 ER

27H

25 BB

67K

 

 

[vegasbob]

Top Sox OPS

 

Over 99 PAs

.912 Betts

.858 JDM

.826 Moreland

.822 Vazquez

.813 Beni

.803 Bogey

.783 Devers

.409 JBJ

 

19-98 PAs

1.060 Chavis (71)

.695 Swihart (29)

.573 Lin (22)

.546 Leon (28)

.459 Nunez (61)

.273 Holt (19)

.243 Pedey (21)

 

IP Pitcher ERA

44 Sale 4.50

37 Porcello 5.11

37 ERod 5.40

36 Price 3.75

 

22 Velazquez 4.03

21 Eovaldi 6.00

20 Walden 1.77

18 Workman 1.53

17 Hembree 3.63

16 Brasier 3.45

15 Barnes 1.76

15 Thornburg 7.98

14 Brewer 5.79

 

6 Johnson 12.71

4 J Smith 8.31

4 Weber 0.00

3 E Ramirez 12.00

3 Lakins 3.38

2 D Hernandez 0.00

1 Poyner 18.00

1 Nunez 9.00

 

Walden+Workman+Hembree: 2.28 ERA

55.1 IP

14 ER

27H

25 BB

67K

 

 

 

Thanks for the #'s. It might make a good comparison chart around mid-june to see who is hot and who is not over the next month, correlated to the current .500, and whatever the mid June record is.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the #'s. It might make a good comparison chart around mid-june to see who is hot and who is not over the next month, correlated to the current .500, and whatever the mid June record is.

 

7 starters over .783 is pretty impressive.

 

6 over .803.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the #'s. It might make a good comparison chart around mid-june to see who is hot and who is not over the next month, correlated to the current .500, and whatever the mid June record is.

 

Last 2 weeks:

1.101 Betts

1.088 Chavis

1.039 Vaz

.907 Devers

 

.767 Nunez

.716 Beni

.716 Bogey

.713 Moreland

.708 Leon

 

.649 JD

 

.451 JBJ

 

.291 Pearce

 

[Nick]

Not sure what will happen with Betts extension.But i do hope when times come, we extend JD Martinez.

 

Big issue is TV Revenue. If the revenue stagnates, I can't see Betts getting $350M.

 

We build the team around our starters, Sale, Price, Eovaldi and E Rod.

 

We build the team around JD Martinez, Xander, Beni, Devers and Chavis.

 

Everyone else is hired gun.

[Oscars]

2018 Playoff ERA

 

 

0.00 Hembree

0.79 Kelly

 

Although Kelly had 11.1 IP to Hembree's 4.2 (no hits but 5 BBs).

 

Please!

Mr high leverage Kelly pitched 6 innings in the World Series giving up no runs, whilst Hembree pitched only 1 inning(11th) in the 3-2 loss in game 3.

Hembree pitched 2 innings (8-9th) in the 6-2 loss to the Yankees in game 2, 1 inning (8th) in the 16-1 blow out win in game 3 , 0.2 inning (9th) in the 7-2 loss in game 3 of the championship series against the dodgers.

So in the playoffs Hembree pitched a total of 1 high leverage inning.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Oscars
Missed a word

[moonslav59]

Please!

Mr high leverage Kelly pitched 6 innings in the World Series giving up no runs, whilst Hembree pitched only 1 inning(11th) in the 3-2 loss in game 3.

Hembree pitched 2 innings (8-9th) in the 6-2 loss to the Yankees in game 2, 1 inning (8th) in the 16-1 blow out win in game 3 , 0.2 inning (9th) in the 7-2 loss in game 3 of the championship series against the dodgers.

So in the playoffs Hembree pitched a total of 1 high leverage inning.

 

I wasn't trying to say Hembree had a better playoffs, and that's why I showed the IP and the fact that Hembree walked 5 in 4.2 IP.

 

My point was, it shouldn't be totally surprising that HH has had a very nice mini-stretch this year. He's had a few throughout his career, then it's back to mediocrity, or worse, just like Kelly.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Hembree has velocity and a good breaking ball. His issues are two fold. His FB is straight as an arrow and his location can go sideways. When he doesn’t locate the FB, even at 96, it’s meat

[Station 13]

Hembree has velocity and a good breaking ball. His issues are two fold. His FB is straight as an arrow and his location can go sideways. When he doesn’t locate the FB, even at 96, it’s meat

 

Career ERA 128+

9.5K/9

 

 

Fine for a middle reliever.

[Nick]

Hembree has velocity and a good breaking ball. His issues are two fold. His FB is straight as an arrow and his location can go sideways. When he doesn’t locate the FB, even at 96, it’s meat

I agree. I get frusted with pitchers that can't or won't (Dice K) throw strikes. With Dice K, I always thought it was an 'honor' for him to walk a batter on 3-2 count to face the next, LESSER, batter. But I digress.

 

Kimbrel, Barnes and Hembree always struggled when they had trouble locating. I rather pitcher get hit hard then to walk them.

[notin]

I agree. I get frusted with pitchers that can't or won't (Dice K) throw strikes. With Dice K, I always thought it was an 'honor' for him to walk a batter on 3-2 count to face the next, LESSER, batter. But I digress.

 

Kimbrel, Barnes and Hembree always struggled when they had trouble locating. I rather pitcher get hit hard then to walk them.

 

You can add Daniel Bard to that list as well.

 

I agree about walks. Not every hard hit ball puts a runner on base, but every walk does...

[OH FOY]

Catcher thing with Hembree? Who knows.

Leon 81 innings, 78 hits, 11 HRS, 99 K's, 31 BB's, 3.56 ERA

Vazquez 89 innings, 103 hits, 16 HRS, 94 K's, 33 BB's, 4.12 ERA

[mvp 78]

Catcher thing with Hembree? Who knows.

Leon 81 innings, 78 hits, 11 HRS, 99 K's, 31 BB's

Vazquez 89 innings, 103 hits, 16 HRS, 94 K's, 33 BB's

 

RP's can't have a personal caddie. Hembree is ok, but very replaceable.

[OH FOY]

Of course Relievers cant have a personal caddie, but there is a difference. For a Reliever, that's a pretty big difference.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

 

The Red Sox:

- Have won each of their last 3 series

- Are 8-2 in their last 10 games

- Lead the AL in runs (52) and OBP (.368) in May

- Own MLB’s 2nd-lowest ERA since 4/24 (2.76)

- Have a 3.22 starting pitcher ERA since 4/12 (4th-lowest in MLB)

- Lead the AL with 9.99 SO/9.0 IP

[Slasher9]

Hembree has velocity and a good breaking ball. His issues are two fold. His FB is straight as an arrow and his location can go sideways. When he doesn’t locate the FB, even at 96, it’s meat

 

pretend he is wearing pinstripes? FB is + / CB is ++

[bkzwhitestrican]

@SoxNotes

 

The Red Sox:

- Have won each of their last 3 series

- Are 8-2 in their last 10 games

- Lead the AL in runs (52) and OBP (.368) in May

- Own MLB’s 2nd-lowest ERA since 4/24 (2.76)

- Have a 3.22 starting pitcher ERA since 4/12 (4th-lowest in MLB)

- Lead the AL with 9.99 SO/9.0 IP

 

No doubt your team looks a lot better now than at the start of the year. But Boston has basically only played the O's and White Sox in May.

[dgalehouse]

No doubt your team looks a lot better now than at the start of the year. But Boston has basically only played the O's and White Sox in May.

 

Yeah , but the good news is that there are plenty of crappy teams to beat up on in the A.L.

[moonslav59]

Of course Relievers cant have a personal caddie, but there is a difference. For a Reliever, that's a pretty big difference.

 

Both sample sizes are under 90 IP, which is significant, but not really all that large.

 

There are bigger catcher disparities with other pitchers.

 

I've shown the starter ones often enough, here are some RP'er CERA numbers (career):

 

Barnes:

3.58 w Vaz (.635 OPS against)

3.81 w Leon (.688)

4.50 w Swihart (.803)

 

Brasier:

1.27 w Leon (.464 in 21 IP)

1.80 w Swihart in 10 IP

3.71 w Vaz (.712 in 17 IP)

 

Workman:

3.46 w Vaz (.654 in 81 IP)

3.57 w Leon (.782 in 35)

4.03 w AJ P (.647 in 45)

5.oo w Salty (.728 in 18)

5.12 w Lava (.800 in 19)

 

Joe Kelly:

2.81 w Y Molina (.721 in 176 IP as a starter)

3.23 w Vaz (.619 in 98)

4.31 w Leon (.785 in 56)

4.48 w Swihart (.698 in 74)

4.83 w Hanigan (.761 in 91 some as a starter)

 

Kimbrel:

0.00 w DRoss (.242 in 41 IP--AMAZING!!!)

 

0.68 w Laird (.306 in 27)

 

1.82 w McCann (.500 in 158 IP)

1.94 w Leon (.499 in 79)

1.95 w Vaz (.495 in 88)

(Almost identical numbers with all 3!)

2.01 w Norris (.581 in 45)

2.06 w Gattis (.552 in 48)

 

16.62 w Swihart (.813 in 4.1 IP)

 

[harmony]

Yeah , but the good news is that there are plenty of crappy teams to beat up on in the A.L.

The Red Sox and the Mariners enter this weekend's three-game series tied in the Wild Card race while the Sox can capture the season series with a sweep.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox and the Mariners enter this weekend's three-game series tied in the Wild Card race while the Sox can capture the season series with a sweep.

 

Two teams heading in different directions.

[mvp 78]

Yeah , but the good news is that there are plenty of crappy teams to beat up on in the A.L.

 

Aside from the Rays, this division is loaded with tomato cans.