A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Look at the season that Adam Jones is having, then look at what JBJ will have in arbitration next year. Not sure he's likely to be traded.

 

I'm assuming JBJ ends up at .710 and near GG defense.

 

We could maybe trade his $9M arb cost for a $2-4M RP'er.

 

If he sucks this year, and nobody wants him, his arb may go slightly down, and maybe we don't even agree to arb.

[moonslav59]

The Sox aren’t resetting unless JDM walks and they avoid re-signing him. They have $111 mill committed to Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Vazquez, Pedroia and Bogaerts, and more depending on what Betts and ERod get, which should combine for over $30mill. That leaves just over $36mill to fill 19 or 20 roster spots, depending on Pedroia’s health. If JD doesn’t opt out, the Sox have another $21mill committed and still need 18 to 19 MLB players (plus up to 15 more players on the 40-man roster.) They can’t get under the limit even if everyone makes minimum wage.

 

So why cut costs on a player with one year left (after this year)?

 

We don't know what the budget plan is.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ. You were the one that mentioned him being the most likely trade candidate.

 

(Maybe Pedey retires and takes a lifetime services contract to replace the money owed. Maybe we trade JBJ and go cheap everywhere else, except a low cost fill-in here or there.

[mvp 78]

I'm assuming JBJ ends up at .710 and near GG defense.

 

We could maybe trade his $9M arb cost for a $2-4M RP'er.

 

If he sucks this year, and nobody wants him, his arb may go slightly down, and maybe we don't even agree to arb.

 

I honestly believe his value is higher to the Sox than on the trade market. You keep him until he becomes too cost prohibitive (at 700 OPS that won't be a problem) or you have an internal candidate.

[mvp 78]

The risk is that you trade JBJ for a middle reliever and then lose Betts to FA before 2021. Ouch.

 

JBJ isn't going anywhere until there is a determination on what happens with Betts long term.

[moonslav59]

I honestly believe his value is higher to the Sox than on the trade market. You keep him until he becomes too cost prohibitive (at 700 OPS that won't be a problem) or you have an internal candidate.

 

I'm all for keeping him.

 

My only thought is about resetting this winter, which there is a chance we may try to do.

 

If we try, we will likely trade him and his $8+M salary.

 

If not, I'd keep him for sure.

[moonslav59]

The risk is that you trade JBJ for a middle reliever and then lose Betts to FA before 2021. Ouch.

 

JBJ isn't going anywhere until there is a determination on what happens with Betts long term.

 

They are both free agents after 2020.

[mvp 78]

They are both free agents after 2020.

 

I know.

[mvp 78]

I'm all for keeping him.

 

My only thought is about resetting this winter, which there is a chance we may try to do.

 

If we try, we will likely trade him and his $8+M salary.

 

If not, I'd keep him for sure.

 

I don't think they try to reset next year if they have a rough year in 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think they try to reset next year if they have a rough year in 2019.

 

Unless JDM opts out, it's going to be pretty hard to reset regardless.

[oldtimer]

The Sox aren’t resetting unless JDM walks and they avoid re-signing him. They have $111 mill committed to Price, Sale, Eovaldi, Vazquez, Pedroia and Bogaerts, and more depending on what Betts and ERod get, which should combine for over $30mill. That leaves just over $36mill to fill 19 or 20 roster spots, depending on Pedroia’s health. If JD doesn’t opt out, the Sox have another $21mill committed and still need 18 to 19 MLB players (plus up to 15 more players on the 40-man roster.) They can’t get under the limit even if everyone makes minimum wage.

 

So why cut costs on a player with one year left (after this year)?

 

Because he is an offensive liability?

[Nick]

Because he is an offensive liability?

 

JBJ's value goes up if our staff is pitching well. If April becomes the norm, then we need to upgrade our offense. We're pretty much stuck with our rotation for next 4 years.

[moonslav59]

Unless JDM opts out, it's going to be pretty hard to reset regardless.

 

Very hard, but not impossible with no FAs back and no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree...

[mvp 78]

Unless JDM opts out, it's going to be pretty hard to reset regardless.

 

The only way they reset is in 2021 when Cliff Clavin comes around. Need to pay off that bar tab.

[mvp 78]

Very hard, but not impossible with no FAs back and no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree...

 

Going for that big savings by not re-signing Sandy Leon.

[notin]

The

We don't know what the budget plan is.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ. You were the one that mentioned him being the most likely trade candidate.

 

(Maybe Pedey retires and takes a lifetime services contract to replace the money owed. Maybe we trade JBJ and go cheap everywhere else, except a low cost fill-in here or there.

 

 

No. I mentioned him as the only possible trade candidate from oldtimer’s list. Everyone else he wanted to remove is either FA at the end of the year or too injured to move.

 

I believe we resolved the attempts to circumvent the CBA with Pedroia’s contract are not allowed. Pedroia is going to play out his contract. Intermittently.

 

The Sox will probably use an internal player or two. But not six. Probably not even four. And good thing because most fans don’t have the patience for younger players once they get called up. Remember when DD dealt all those ranked prospects for Kimbrel and Sale? A lot of folks said of that 22 and under crowd. “DD didn’t give up anything good.” And those were the ranked prospects. And now fans want to load up on all these unranked players and assume they’ll step right in like they own the place?

 

Of course, DD doesn’t operate that way anyway. Expect at least 2 (and I think 3) of Chavis, Dalbec, Chatham, Hernandez, and/or Feltman to be dealt...

[notin]

Very hard, but not impossible with no FAs back and no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree...

 

And if you think it’s going to be hard to reset, imagine how hard it’s going to be to win...

[moonslav59]

Going for that big savings by not re-signing Sandy Leon.

 

It all adds up. Right now, Leon is the 16th highest paid player on our 40 man roster.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but let's assume no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree and all the FAs-to-be: Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt?, Thornburg, here's what we have for next year:

 

31 Price

28 Betts (projected last arb)

25 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey (maybe get him to retire)

7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

4 Vaz

4 Beni (1st of 3 arbs)

3 Barnes (2 or 3 arb)

2 Workman (3 of 3)

 

$177M +$15M player benefits= $192M

 

That leaves $16M for 14 ML players and 15 minor leaguers.

 

Pre-arb: Devers, Brasier, Chavis, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer, Lin, Poyner, Walden, DHernandez, Lakins, Shawaryn, STravis?, DReyes?, JSmith?, JTaylor?, Chatham (rule 5 keeper) & Dalbec (rule 5 keeper). Maybe Ockimey and another rule 5'er or Feltman. That leaves 7-9 minor league slots open, not counting anyone we sign or keep.

 

14 ML contracts x min wage= $8-9M

15 minor league deals= $3M

 

That leaves us $5M to upgrade over a min salary player, maybe more if we trade some more salary or Pedey retires (in my dreams, I know).

 

We can maybe keep Holt or sign a low-cost pen arms, and have this for our 25 man roster:

 

SP (5): Sale, Price, Eovaldi, ERod, DHernandez

SP/RP (2): Johnson, Velazquez

RP (5): Barnes, Brasier, Workman, __FA__? (or Brewer, Lakins or Feltman)

C (2): Vaz & Centeno

1B (1): Devers

2B (2): Pedey & Holt?

3B (1): Dalbec

SS (1): Bogey

LF (1): JD

CF (1): Betts

RF (1): Beni

DH (1): Chavis

25th Man: Lin or Chatham (Duran?)

 

That's 4-5 rookies or near rookies on the 25 man roster.

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Devers is looking better at the plate. I highly doubt he gets traded. He might be playing first next year though.

 

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

20h

Devers is hitting .299/.387/.371 and his average launch angle is rocketing upward.

 

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

[moonslav59]

ERA over last 14 days...

 

2.29 Porcello

3.00 Sale

3.27 Price

4.50 ERod

 

Brasier, Workman & Walden have gone 16 IP without allowing an earned run of their own to score.

 

Last 28 days.... (13+ IP)

 

2.03 Walden

3.00 Price

3.46 Velazquez

4.76 Porcello

5.47 ERod

5.57 Sale

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS over the last 14 days... (32+ PAs)

 

1.326 Betts

 

 

 

1.061 Chavis

 

.928 Devers

 

.754 Bogey

.714 Vaz

.702 Moreland

 

.677 Beni

.644 JD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.451 JBJ

 

[kenmeister]

OPS over the last 14 days... (32+ PAs)

 

1.326 Betts

 

 

 

1.061 Chavis

 

.928 Devers

 

.754 Bogey

.714 Vaz

.702 Moreland

 

.677 Beni

.644 JD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.451 JBJ

 

 

Nice spacing! Really tough to be JBJ right now. Glad Betts is hitting again, and go Chavis! This team can win at 5 runs / game with the pitching starting to regain its form. My mid-May prediction seems to be right, as the team is rounding into shape now.

[mvp 78]

DFA JD Martinez

[notin]

DFA JD Martinez

 

No need. He’s opting out. I read it on here...

[Nick]

With Xander out today, I see that our young ones' are batting fourth and fifth. Someone thinks they are READY.

[mvp 78]

No need. He’s opting out. I read it on here...

 

If he has an OPS of 700 he should stay though. 700 is a very good OPS. Maybe he'll even get up to 750 and I'll get a touch of the vapors.

[mvp 78]

With Xander out today, I see that our young ones' are batting fourth and fifth. Someone thinks they are READY.

 

There's little question over their bats. The problem is that you can only put one DH in the lineup.

[Nick]

Tyler Thornburg needs to go. He just doesn't have it.

 

I've been impressed with Walden. A 3 inning stint with one hit given up, no walks and 3 strikeouts. He's probably in line for his fourth win.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

It all adds up. Right now, Leon is the 16th highest paid player on our 40 man roster.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but let's assume no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree and all the FAs-to-be: Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt?, Thornburg, here's what we have for next year:

 

31 Price

28 Betts (projected last arb)

25 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey (maybe get him to retire)

4 Vaz

4 Beni (1st of 3 arbs)

3 Barnes (2 or 3 arb)

2 Workman (3 of 3)

 

$170M +$15M player benefits= $185M

 

That leaves $23M for 14 ML players and 15 minor leaguers.

 

Pre-arb: Devers, Brasier, Chavis, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer, Lin, Poyner, Walden, DHernandez, Lakins, Shawaryn, STravis?, DReyes?, JSmith?, JTaylor?, Chatham (rule 5 keeper) & Dalbec (rule 5 keeper). Maybe Ockimey and another rule 5'er or Feltman. That leaves 7-9 minor league slots open, not counting anyone we sign or keep.

 

14 ML contracts x min wage= $8-9M

15 minor league deals= $3M

 

That leaves us $11M to upgrade over a min salary player, maybe more if we trade some more salary or Pedey retires (in my dreams, I know).

 

We can maybe keep Holt, sign a couple low-cost pen arms, and have this for our 25 man roster:

 

SP (5): Sale, Price, Eovaldi, ERod, DHernandez

SP/RP (2): Johnson, Velazquez

RP (5): Barnes, Brasier, Workman, __FA__, __FA__, (or Brewer, Lakins or Feltman)

C (2): Vaz & Centeno

1B (1): Devers

2B (2): Pedey & Holt

3B (1): Dalbec

SS (1): Bogey

LF (1): JD

CF (1): Betts

RF (1): Beni

DH (1): Chavis

25th Man: Lin or Chatham (Duran?)

 

That's 4-5 rookies or near rookies on the 25 man roster.

 

 

Stunning. Only you can do a laydown like that. Those guys in Moneyball got nothing on you.

 

I don't think Beni has the arm for RF,which is why Cora puts JDM there--despite the risks. Better still--find another outfielder.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[oldtimer]

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

20h

Devers is hitting .299/.387/.371 and his average launch angle is rocketing upward.

 

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

 

From someone you think of as dumb, Devers has 8 errors in April, which is very high for any position. Perhaps he would do better next season on first with the relatively short Chavis getting to make his mark at 3rd. Chavis is on the short side to play 1st.

[Nick]

It all adds up. Right now, Leon is the 16th highest paid player on our 40 man roster.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but let's assume no JBJ, Leon, Wright, Hembree and all the FAs-to-be: Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt?, Thornburg, here's what we have for next year:

 

31 Price

28 Betts (projected last arb)

25 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey (maybe get him to retire)

4 Vaz

4 Beni (1st of 3 arbs)

3 Barnes (2 or 3 arb)

2 Workman (3 of 3)

 

$170M +$15M player benefits= $185M

 

That leaves $23M for 14 ML players and 15 minor leaguers.

 

Pre-arb: Devers, Brasier, Chavis, Johnson, Velazquez, Brewer, Lin, Poyner, Walden, DHernandez, Lakins, Shawaryn, STravis?, DReyes?, JSmith?, JTaylor?, Chatham (rule 5 keeper) & Dalbec (rule 5 keeper). Maybe Ockimey and another rule 5'er or Feltman. That leaves 7-9 minor league slots open, not counting anyone we sign or keep.

 

14 ML contracts x min wage= $8-9M

15 minor league deals= $3M

 

That leaves us $11M to upgrade over a min salary player, maybe more if we trade some more salary or Pedey retires (in my dreams, I know).

 

We can maybe keep Holt, sign a couple low-cost pen arms, and have this for our 25 man roster:

 

SP (5): Sale, Price, Eovaldi, ERod, DHernandez

SP/RP (2): Johnson, Velazquez

RP (5): Barnes, Brasier, Workman, __FA__, __FA__, (or Brewer, Lakins or Feltman)

C (2): Vaz & Centeno

1B (1): Devers

2B (2): Pedey & Holt

3B (1): Dalbec

SS (1): Bogey

LF (1): JD

CF (1): Betts

RF (1): Beni

DH (1): Chavis

25th Man: Lin or Chatham (Duran?)

 

That's 4-5 rookies or near rookies on the 25 man roster.

 

 

Are you not missing E Rod as a second year arbitration player next year? I would also elevate Walden to the 'varsity' team.