A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

As bad as things have been, we're just 1.5 games behind the Yanks and 4 behind the Astros.

[moonslav59]

One thing that will make it harder for us to stay strong...

 

MLB reports...

 

2019 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations

By Jeff Todd | April 11, 2019 at 10:25pm CDT

 

With less than two months until the 2019 amateur draft, analysis of this year’s class is hitting full stride. Baseball America just produced its ranking of 300 prospects; Fangraphs has updated its prospect board; ESPN.com’s Keith Law released rankings not long ago (Insider link).

 

[RELATED: 2019-20 International Bonus Pools]

 

As always, spending power is key. Jim Callis of MLB.com recently broke down all the key financial info for this year’s festivities. While the outcome of the still-pending free agencies of Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel could still shift things around, the situation is mostly set at this point. (Click to find out what selections teams would lose by signing one of those players before the draft and what picks their former teams could stand to gain.)

 

More than any team in the league, the Diamondbacks are in a power position in the draft. Though they won’t pick until the 16th slot, the club has accumulated a variety of lofty selections via compensation picks for A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin as well as the acquisition of a Competitive Balance pick in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Arizona has over $2MM more to work with than any other club in the Majors.

 

You can find the slot bonus allocation and pick basis (compensation, competitive balance, etc) for every single selection in the draft at the above BA link. We’ll just run through the total bonus pools for every team here:

 

Diamondbacks: $16,093,700

Orioles: $13,821,300

Royals: $13,108,000

Marlins: $13,045,000

White Sox: $11,565,500

Braves: $11,532,200

Rangers: $11,023,100

Padres: $10,758,900

Tigers: $10,402,500

Rays: $10,333,800

Pirates: $9,944,000

Twins: $9,905,800

Reds: $9,528,600

Giants: $8,714,500

Blue Jays: $8,463,300

Mets: $8,224,600

Dodgers: $8,069,100

Angels: $7,608,700

Mariners: $7,559,000

Yankees: $7,455,300

Rockies: $7,092,300

Cardinals: $6,903,500

Phillies: $6,475,800

Guardians: $6,148,100

Nationals: $5,979,600

Cubs: $5,826,900

Athletics: $5,605,900

Astros: $5,355,100

Brewers: $5,148,200

Red Sox: $4,788,100

[Maxbialystock]

Feel good stats for Devers and JD:

 

Red Sox Stats‏ @redsoxstats 7h7 hours ago

 

Game winner was the only pitch out of the zone Devers swung at tonight. All his ingredients keep improving. His breakout is going to be spectacular.

 

JDM 1-3, 2B (112), 2 BB, and his outs were hit 107 and 108. He's hitting 327/411/551 with 11 hard hit outs. He's been better this year than last and only has six strikeouts so far, that's a development to watch.

 

Impressive, thanks. Also the thoughts on Devers.

[Maxbialystock]

People were talking about how hard JBJ has been hitting the ball.

 

I showed some data that shows that may not be true.

 

OK. My mistake. Plus I was just mad at the rotation.

[jad]

And even if he doesn't he should be our CF'er. I'll post again what I said in my (only) post in the game thread:

 

I'll tell you what.... The guys in the booth are gushing about Moreland's double but JBJ makes the catch on that ball...every day. And if that catch is made - that 's the difference in the game. That's why I want JBJ in our outfield.[/quote

 

I've always liked him, and defended his anemic hitting with some sort of calculation like: If he makes a catch every 4 games or so that an average CF would not make, that's about 40 hits a year: assuming that taking away a hit from the other team is roughly equivalent to getting one yourself, given 500 ABs, that's roughly, what, 80 pts on his BA? So even if he hits .200, he is essentially the same as an average fielding CF who hits .280. Of course, if that catch is 1 ever 5 games, then he's a .260 hitter etc. But when he's hitting as he is now, great as he looks in the field, he's no better than a ho-hum fielder hitting around .250. He's rapidly approaching Steven Drew territory.

[moonslav59]

JBJ will begin hitting better.

[Hitch]

As bad as things have been, we're just 1.5 games behind the Yanks and 4 behind the Astros.

 

I'm more concerned with how far we are behind the Yanks and Rays.

 

Hopefully we can keep it going against the Orioles and roll into NYC and take them to school again. If we can get going we will head into the Rays series in good spirits.

 

Last night might just well have been the catalyst.

[jad]

JBJ will begin hitting better.

 

I don't disagree. But the question is when? And how? Right now, he's on pace for nearly 200 Ks, 0 HR, and at this rate, he will end the season with 15 RBIs. How many games should the RS concede while waiting for him to find his .235 groove?

[Slasher9]

I don't disagree. But the question is when? And how? Right now, he's on pace for nearly 200 Ks, 0 HR, and at this rate, he will end the season with 15 RBIs. How many games should the RS concede while waiting for him to find his .235 groove?

 

who do you propose to replace him in CF?

how many of this years L's can be attributed to no hits from CF position?

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree. But the question is when? And how? Right now, he's on pace for nearly 200 Ks, 0 HR, and at this rate, he will end the season with 15 RBIs. How many games should the RS concede while waiting for him to find his .235 groove?

 

I was hopeful that this would be the year he stays consistent. The sample size is still small, but we are approaching the time where we will be able to say he had another up and down year.

[moonslav59]

who do you propose to replace him in CF?

how many of this years L's can be attributed to no hits from CF position?

 

None, so far. (IMO)

[moonslav59]

MLB.com...

 

More aggressive Yoan Moncada tapping into talent

WWW.MLB.COM

---

A little more than four years ago, Yoan Moncada entered American baseball as one of the most instantly hyped prospects in recent memory. In February 2015, he signed with the Red Sox for a record-smashing $31.5 million bonus that actually cost Boston twice that much, including the penalty for exceeding

[moonslav59]

Trivia question:

 

Who has the highest career BA of 1.000 and the most PAs for that 1.000 BA?

 

Answer: John Paciorek of the 45 Colt's- 5 PAs, 3 for 3, 2 BBs and 4 runs scored in one game. He never played again.

 

Hover mouse with right click on to the right of "answer" to see the answer.

[moonslav59]

What player hit in every game he ever played (13 games) and ended up with a .425 BA in 43 PAs- never to play again.

 

(Hint: it happened this century.)

 

Answer: Glenn Williams with the Twins in 2005.

 

[notin]

I don't disagree. But the question is when? And how? Right now, he's on pace for nearly 200 Ks, 0 HR, and at this rate, he will end the season with 15 RBIs. How many games should the RS concede while waiting for him to find his .235 groove?

 

 

So you think the offense is being held by the guy who hits 8th or 9th?

[moonslav59]

Highest BA with over 85 PAs:

 

Terry Forster .397 in 86 PAs

Ty Cobb .366 in 13,072 PAs

[jad]

who do you propose to replace him in CF?

how many of this years L's can be attributed to no hits from CF position?

 

Well, that's a pretty low bar. None of the losses can be attributed to you or me either, but that doesn't mean we should be playing.

You don't think an outfield of Benintendi Betts and JD would be more productive? (I'm sure this is a question that has occurred to Cora. I also assume that, like most of us, he would rather hold his breath and hope JBJ hits, rather than face this decision.)

[moonslav59]

Well, that's a pretty low bar. None of the losses can be attributed to you or me either, but that doesn't mean we should be playing.

You don't think an outfield of Benintendi Betts and JD would be more productive? (I'm sure this is a question that has occurred to Cora. I also assume that, like most of us, he would rather hold his breath and hope JBJ hits, rather than face this decision.)

 

Who would DH?

 

How much would our defense be hurt at 2 positions?

[Slasher9]

Well, that's a pretty low bar. None of the losses can be attributed to you or me either, but that doesn't mean we should be playing.

You don't think an outfield of Benintendi Betts and JD would be more productive? (I'm sure this is a question that has occurred to Cora. I also assume that, like most of us, he would rather hold his breath and hope JBJ hits, rather than face this decision.)

 

all 3 of those guys are in the lineup every night anyways. why would i remove a GG CFer to move JDM out of DH spot?

to put holt in the DH spot?

i've seen enough of Beni in CF and JDM in RF/LF to know that i do not ever want to see this as my "regular" outfield.

i think Cora is like me...he doesnt care if JBj hits. he needs him to lockdown CF. would he like him to hit? of course. does he "need" him to hit? nope.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ hit well the second half last year and in the postseason...I think he might even have been MVP of the ALCS...

 

A little patience is warranted.

[kenmeister]

When Pearce comes off the disabled list (if he hasn't already, sorry not following that close), I hope they play both him and Moreland in the lineup for a while. I guess that would mean JBJ sits and JDM plays the outfield, but I'm sure there are other choices.

[moonslav59]

When Pearce comes off the disabled list (if he hasn't already, sorry not following that close), I hope they play both him and Moreland in the lineup for a while. I guess that would mean JBJ sits and JDM plays the outfield, but I'm sure there are other choices.

 

I'd love to see Pearce get more PAs than just vs LHPs.

 

I'm sure Cora will be resting Betts, Beni, JD, JBJ and Moreland several more days than many managers would do, so Pearce can get some that way, but I'm not so sure about "benching" JBJ to get Pearce into more games vs RHPs. Maybe sitting JBJ vs more LHPs than needed might make some sense offensively. I would not agree to the idea of benching JBJ vs RHPs just to get Pearce into those line-ups.

[Kimmi]

While offense and starting pitching is still finding their way, the bullpen has done remarkably well, better than the fabled legendary scumbags in the Bronx which has rack up 4 losses.

 

From RedSoxStats regarding the back end of our bullpen:

 

[Kimmi]

I'm more concerned with how far we are behind the Yanks and Rays.

 

Hopefully we can keep it going against the Orioles and roll into NYC and take them to school again. If we can get going we will head into the Rays series in good spirits.

 

Last night might just well have been the catalyst.

 

To be honest, the way the Rays are pitching right now, playing them scares me.

[moonslav59]

To be honest, the way the Rays are pitching right now, playing them scares me.

 

They are a tough team, but I still like our 2019 roster better.

[SCM33]

They’re 4-9 now. If they lose the next 6, time for a fire sale?

 

Did I say that? Not even worth the effort having a back and forth with you, since again, you are clearly blind, deaf....or dumb.

[moonslav59]

Here's an interesting factoid.

 

The Rays are on their way to an 11 and 3 record.

 

Their catcher OPS was .417 before the game, and Zunio is currently 1 for 5 tonight.

 

[oldtimer]

JBJ hit well the second half last year and in the postseason...I think he might even have been MVP of the ALCS...

 

A little patience is warranted.

 

It seems like every year JBJ talks about all the work he has put in on swing mechanics and how that will make him a better hitter. He is a chronically slow starter who does seem to have a hot month late in the season. His fielding has always been stellar. Similarly, each year the talk is about how we need to get a better bat in center field.

 

It is a shame that he can't seem to become a consistent hitter for us and as his expense grows we should ask ourselves if we can do better, but we have no minor league outfielders that could and I doubt we can go into the market and get a FA or into the trade market for a replacement. I tend to agree that patience in JBJ's case is the best approach. Accept inconsistent hitting and rejoice over the great defense.

[moonslav59]

It seems like every year JBJ talks about all the work he has put in on swing mechanics and how that will make him a better hitter. He is a chronically slow starter who does seem to have a hot month late in the season. His fielding has always been stellar. Similarly, each year the talk is about how we need to get a better bat in center field.

 

It is a shame that he can't seem to become a consistent hitter for us and as his expense grows we should ask ourselves if we can do better, but we have no minor league outfielders that could and I doubt we can go into the market and get a FA or into the trade market for a replacement. I tend to agree that patience in JBJ's case is the best approach. Accept inconsistent hitting and rejoice over the great defense.

 

He did have an .807 April back in 2016, so I'm not so sure it's always a slow start as much as it is always having a slow period during every year.

[S5Dewey]

He did have an .807 April back in 2016, so I'm not so sure it's always a slow start as much as it is always having a slow period during every year.

 

Things that don't show up in the stats and are therefore easy to forget...

 

And while we're on the topic of JBJ, it's worth saying that if he doesn't make that outstanding catch last night it becomes a 1-run game and the O's have the tying run in scoring position.