A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

8) Yoenis Céspedes, LF, NYM: $29 million

Full contract: 4 years, $110 million (2017-20)

Cespedes re-signed with the Mets as a free agent following the 2016 season, which was also the last time he played in 100 games in a season. During the first two years of the new contract, he’s been limited to just 119 games total due to injuries, including each hamstring, his right hip flexor and twin heel calcifications. It’s unknown when Cespedes will return from his heel surgeries this season, though the All-Star break seems like a semi-reasonable estimate.

 

I'm glad we passed on him. Forget AAV. This is their pay for 2019. (per MLB.com)

 

1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WSH: $38.3 million

Full contract: 7 years, $175 million (2017-23)

 

2) Max Scherzer, RHP, WSH: $37.4 million

Full contract: 7 years, $210 million (2015-21)

 

3) Zack Greinke, RHP, ARI: $34.5 million

Full contract: 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21)

 

4) Mike Trout, CF, LAA: $34.1 million

Full contract: 6 years, $144.5 million (2015-20)

 

5) David Price, LHP, BOS: $31 million

Full contract: 7 years, $217 million (2016-22)

 

 

6) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD: $31 million

Full contract: 3 years, $93 million (2019-21)

 

 

7) Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET: $30 million

Full contract: 8 years, $248 million (2016-23; 2024-25 vesting options)

 

 

8) Yoenis Céspedes, LF, NYM: $29 million

Full contract: 4 years, $110 million (2017-20)

 

 

9) Justin Verlander, RHP, HOU: $28 million

Full contract: 7 years, $180 million (2013-19)

 

Any doubt that Miguel will be Ramirezed in 2023? Tigers would owe him $60M if he finishes top 10 in MVP votes in 2023.

 

Extending Sale for 6 years at $200M doesn't seem so bad looking at the top 2 on the list.

Edited March 4, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

If you had to choose just one...

 

$220M/7 Sale

 

$220/9 Bogey

 

[notin]

If you had to choose just one...

 

$220M/7 Sale

 

$220/9 Bogey

 

 

Or:

 

Bogaerts at $220/9 and Martinez at $100/4

 

or

 

Betts at $320/9?

[moonslav59]

Or:

 

Bogaerts at $220/9 and Martinez at $100/4

 

or

 

Betts at $320/9?

 

Betts- not even close.

[Larry Cook]

If you had to choose just one...

 

$220M/7 Sale

 

$220/9 Bogey

 

 

Is sale 100 percent healthy?

[Nick]

Betts- not even close.

 

$350M over 10 years would do it. I'm not advancing it, just thinking what it would take.

[notin]

Betts- not even close.

 

 

What if, along with Bogaerts and Martinez, I threw in Porcello for free?

 

 

Or do you want Door Number 2?

[moonslav59]

what if, along with bogaerts and martinez, i threw in porcello for free?

 

 

Or do you want door number 2?

 

b, m & p.

[Nick]

Tax limit

 

2019 $206M

2020 $208M

2021 $210M

 

Assume further that the limit will increase significantly in new CBA. Yeah, I get it, it only affects few teams but why limit the spending of these teams? It's not to players' advantage to have luxury tax limit.

 

We'll have Betts for two more years. Why not try to win it all with him next two years?

 

Our tax penalty will jump to 50% from current 30% for 2020 and beyond without the reset.

 

We're at $238M right now according to Cot's. I'm going to say that's the magic number given that we'll want to reinforce the team at trade deadline as long as we're in contention.

 

To win next two years, we simply can't lose two starting pitchers. To me, obvious choice is to extend Sale.

 

Stay with me here. Pablo's final AAV is $18M and it goes away in 2020. That money along with his current salary, $15M, will take care of Chris Sale. We'll still be at $238M.

 

I like JD and I want to keep him. Nunez' $5M should take care of JD going forward and retain him for another three years. Give him a 6 year, front loaded contract where he can opt out after 3 years, 2023.

 

Porcello, Pearce and Moreland adds to $33M in savings. If we don't re-sign Xander, that's another $11M. Total of $44M. Say $30M will take care of Betts, JBJ, E Rod, Beni and other arbitration eligible players. Our AAV for 2020 will be down to $224M for 2020. Penalty of $8M would be worth it to go for #3 after winning it in 2019.

 

2020 starting pitchers, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Hernandez? Our lineup would be

 

Beni

Betts

Devers

JD

JBJ

Pedroia

Chavis

Chatam

Vazquez

 

Our rotation should be good and we still have enough offense. We can add a veteran at SS on the cheap if we need to. I'm just afraid Boras will ask $25M for Xander and I just don't believe Xander is worth that. I rather have JD's bat.

 

Betts will be making close to $28M in 2020. I would not extend JBJ at the conclusion of 2020 and instead use his money in part to sign Betts for 2021 and beyond.

 

To Recap

 

2019 We lose Kimbrel and Kelly. Signed Eovaldi and Pearce.

2020 We lose Porcello, Xander, Pearce and Moreland. They need to be replaced internally by ? Hernandez, Chatam or cheap veteran, Chavis/Dalbec. Extend Sale.

2021 We lose JBJ.

 

We keep Betts, Sale and JD. We lose Xander, Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and JBJ.

 

2022 will bring new CBA and it's whole new ball game then. Pedroia will be gone and Price and Eovaldi will be in their last year of contract.

 

NO RESET.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

We lose Porcello, Xander, Pearce and Moreland and a year later, JBJ.

 

This team would not be highly competitive. It wouldn't be a "cliff", but it wouldn't be a ring contender either.

 

I think we reset after this year, but maybe after 2020.

 

No Bogey, no JBJ, no Porcello, no Pearce & Moreland and no JD or Sale.

 

Keeping JD and Sale puts us over the limit and prevents a reset. Keeping both while letting everyone else but Betts go does not win us another ring.

 

I'd rather reset for one year, then spend large and turn the rebuild into a 1 year turnover. We keep Betts, Beni, Devers, ERod and maybe Eovaldi & Sale, so when we bounce back, we still have a strong core of vets.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only way you “reset” in a season is if your farm is ready to bring up multiple prospects and you have a season where you can deal off some assets. The Sox don’t have that kind of farm and I doubt the Sox are going to sell off anyone this season. There’s a reason why it’s called a cliff. If the Sox reset after 2019, you’re likely keeping one player from the Porcello, Sale, JDM, Bogaerts bunch. Subtracting 3 of those players will make your team middling. If DD tries to keep the band together and finds a way to keep 3 of those guys, 2020 will be a good season, but you won’t have the space to keep Betts or JBJ the following year. What we have seen teams try to do is avoid being middling. Picking in the 10-18 range in the draft does get you some talent, but does substantially decrease the talent obtained from the 1-10 spots. Add that to the added draft pool and IFA pool, and being a middling team kills the ability to add more talent later on in the draft while also killing your fan base. Now DD could reset then splurge after 2020, but what’ll that get you? You’ll be paying through the nose still for Pedroia and Price. You’ll presumably have Betts signed. Beni will start getting expensive as will ERod and you’ll be devoid of your most powerful bat and your best arm.

 

Add to that the fact that the Sox are in a division with a team on the upswing without the long term financial constraints and without the need to lock up a superstar within the next two seasons and you’re looking to turn the hammer into the nail in this division. I’d also like to add that Dombrowski has done this for a long time. He’s 63 and has a few titles under his belt now. Once the financial constraint blow this team apart, he’s leaving. He’s not going to rebuild at his age and with his resume. He’s already accomplished his mission.

 

My bet is DD rides out this season. If the Sox are as good as everyone thinks they are, he uses duct tape and bubble gum to keep as many of his big FAs as he can for 2020. After 2020, when even more difficult decisions come to play, he’ll likely saunter off into the sunset and allow his deputy to take over

[Nick]

We lose Porcello, Xander, Pearce and Moreland and a year later, JBJ.

 

This team would not be highly competitive. It wouldn't be a "cliff", but it wouldn't be a ring contender either.

 

I think we reset after this year, but maybe after 2020.

 

No Bogey, no JBJ, no Porcello, no Pearce & Moreland and no JD or Sale.

 

Keeping JD and Sale puts us over the limit and prevents a reset. Keeping both while letting everyone else but Betts go does not win us another ring.

 

I'd rather reset for one year, then spend large and turn the rebuild into a 1 year turnover. We keep Betts, Beni, Devers, ERod and maybe Eovaldi & Sale, so when we bounce back, we still have a strong core of vets.

 

Wow, you don't think starting five of Price, Sale, E Rod, Eovaldi and say Hernandez will not be competitive?

 

You still have Betts, JD and Beni along with Devers, JBJ, and Pedroia. We don't have enough to compete? Seriously?

 

You are spoiled, sir.

[moonslav59]

Wow, you don't think starting five of Price, Sale, E Rod, Eovaldi and say Hernandez will not be competitive?

 

You still have Betts, JD and Beni along with Devers, JBJ, and Pedroia. We don't have enough to compete? Seriously?

 

You are spoiled, sir.

 

I said "highly competitive".

 

You don't think losing Porcello, Bogey, JBJ, Moreland/Pearce makes much of a difference?

 

You are dreaming, sir.

 

[moonslav59]

Porcello has been our horse.

 

Bogey was a huge reason we won last year.

 

JBJ, too.

 

Pearce and Moreland combined will likely out perform Chavis and Dalbec's rookie years.

 

I love DHernandez, but I'm not counting on him, as a rookie, to come close to what Porcello has given us.

 

Chatham has a lot to prove.

 

We also lose Holt with Nunez with nobody but Lin in sight. Pedey will be 1-2 years older then.

[Nick]

Porcello has been our horse.

 

Bogey was a huge reason we won last year.

 

JBJ, too.

 

Pearce and Moreland combined will likely out perform Chavis and Dalbec's rookie years.

 

I love DHernandez, but I'm not counting on him, as a rookie, to come close to what Porcello has given us.

 

Chatham has a lot to prove.

 

We also lose Holt with Nunez with nobody but Lin in sight. Pedey will be 1-2 years older then.

 

You can't have it all.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with starters Sale, Price, Eovaldi and E Rod.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with Betts, JD, Beni, Devers, JBJ (2019-2020), Pedroia, Vazquez.

 

It's about choices. I keep our BEST pitcher in Sale, our BEST player in Betts, and our second most valuable player in JD. Beni and Devers should continue to improve. We'll still have the best defensive outfield for 2019-2020.

 

Do you seriously want to pay Porcello $20M? or Xander $25M?

 

You are not serious, Moon.

[moonslav59]

You can't have it all.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with starters Sale, Price, Eovaldi and E Rod.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with Betts, JD, Beni, Devers, JBJ (2019-2020), Pedroia, Vazquez.

 

It's about choices. I keep our BEST pitcher in Sale, our BEST player in Betts, and our second most valuable player in JD. Beni and Devers should continue to improve. We'll still have the best defensive outfield for 2019-2020.

 

Do you seriously want to pay Porcello $20M? or Xander $25M?

 

You are not serious, Moon.

 

Of course, I'd rather have the team you mention, but I think resetting and being worse for one year will payoff much more later.

 

I am 100% serious.

 

I think a rebuild year or two is needed.

[oldtimer]

Porcello has been our horse.

 

Bogey was a huge reason we won last year.

 

JBJ, too.

 

Pearce and Moreland combined will likely out perform Chavis and Dalbec's rookie years.

 

I love DHernandez, but I'm not counting on him, as a rookie, to come close to what Porcello has given us.

 

Chatham has a lot to prove.

 

We also lose Holt with Nunez with nobody but Lin in sight. Pedey will be 1-2 years older then.

 

We also have this year to assess the trajectory these players are on, which will offer some guidance on who to keep and for home much. Pitchers in particular can have major changes in one season.

 

We clearly need to shed some payroll and Moreland/Pearce are obvious candidates. Pedey is an unknown but we gave him a longer term contract. Nunez probably won't be resigned but Holt may stick as the ultimate Utility player. Bogaerts will likely be the big payroll guy to leave. I like him as a player but to be realistic, he is one that can make the most difference. We can find someone to match his defensive capability but it is asking a lot to get a solid offensive player at a big discount.

[jacksonianmarch]

Of course, I'd rather have the team you mention, but I think resetting and being worse for one year will payoff much more later.

 

I am 100% serious.

 

I think a rebuild year or two is needed.

 

The one thing you need to consider is the possibility that the rebuild is longer than you think. Most sox fans see the rebuild the Yanks made and think that's achievable, but look at the prospects that graduated since then. Outside of maybe Chavis, are there any other guys capable of being an all star caliber player? The Yanks held on from the remnants of the 2009 title team just long enough to need only a single season of rebuilding (2016) while not dealing away their prospects. Maybe the sox do that? Maybe they keep enough of the band together to be a .500+ level team and grow talent without dealing them, then have one year of firesale and really re-stock. I have no idea. But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

[Bellhorn04]

But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

 

You see that in his history?

[mvp 78]

The one thing you need to consider is the possibility that the rebuild is longer than you think. Most sox fans see the rebuild the Yanks made and think that's achievable, but look at the prospects that graduated since then. Outside of maybe Chavis, are there any other guys capable of being an all star caliber player? The Yanks held on from the remnants of the 2009 title team just long enough to need only a single season of rebuilding (2016) while not dealing away their prospects. Maybe the sox do that? Maybe they keep enough of the band together to be a .500+ level team and grow talent without dealing them, then have one year of firesale and really re-stock. I have no idea. But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

 

All those division titles, and World Series pennants are really cluttering up around here.

[cp176]

So with respect to 2019, does Severino being scratched today due to shoulder discomfort doom the Yankees? Sounds to me depending on who you're are talking to, how far can he be from Tommy John? On a more realistic level, our primary Yankee detractor here just needs to accept the fact that they are not nor will they be anytime soon in a better position than the Red Sox to win. Please spare all mention of the future problems we have no chance of avoiding - the cliff.

[notin]

But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

 

Are you referring to a different Dombrowski than the one I’m watching? Dave Dombrowski? It seems that most of the behaviors you attribute to him are simply flat out incorrect.

 

Resetting is a fairly new concept around MLB, and he’s already done it once...

[notin]

You see that in his history?

 

 

I think jacko needs a small lesson on Dombrowskiball. Jacko, THIS is how Dave Dombrowski runs a team.

 

1. He trades prospects. Lots of them. It’s like he hates them.

2. He gives out big contracts. Also, lots of them. He pays for top tier talent unabashedly, never settling for any sort of discount. “Market Price is for wimps” is tattooed on his left arm while his right arm writes checks that redefine player valuation.

3. He doesn’t spend for bench players. Need a utility infielder? That’s what the minor leagues are for!! And you’d know that better if your minor league roster spots weren’t wasted on prospects!

4. For all the money he likes to spend, not so much for closers. He likes in-house options. While he does publicly say he thinks the ninth inning takes a special pitcher, history tells you he doesn’t believe it at all. Kimbrel was a rare case for him.

5. He really likes making trades. Possibly a bit too much, and he can get a little too focused on a player sometimes. That it took him three tries to get Colten Brewer feels like two too many.

 

And he can’t do all this without the occasional reset. You can only save so much money with minimum wage utility infielders and dirt cheap closers...

Edited March 5, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

The one thing you need to consider is the possibility that the rebuild is longer than you think. Most sox fans see the rebuild the Yanks made and think that's achievable, but look at the prospects that graduated since then. Outside of maybe Chavis, are there any other guys capable of being an all star caliber player? The Yanks held on from the remnants of the 2009 title team just long enough to need only a single season of rebuilding (2016) while not dealing away their prospects. Maybe the sox do that? Maybe they keep enough of the band together to be a .500+ level team and grow talent without dealing them, then have one year of firesale and really re-stock. I have no idea. But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

 

Yes, I know it might be more than a year or two, but if we reset the tax, and Henry is willing to allow us to go back to near the $40M over line, I can't see why we shouldn't be able to retool after 1-2 years. We'll still have a base of Devers, Beni & ERod, plus one or two of the vest we decide to keep (Betts & Sale?).

[mvp 78]

@lindseyadler

 

Aaron Boone says it's "highly unlikely" Luis Severino will be ready for the start of the season.

 

Back to back to back to back.

[Kimmi]

If you had to choose just one...

 

$220M/7 Sale

 

$220/9 Bogey

 

 

I would not do either, but if I had to choose, I'd take Bogey at 9.

[Maxbialystock]

Porcello has been our horse.

 

Bogey was a huge reason we won last year.

 

JBJ, too.

 

Pearce and Moreland combined will likely out perform Chavis and Dalbec's rookie years.

 

I love DHernandez, but I'm not counting on him, as a rookie, to come close to what Porcello has given us.

 

Chatham has a lot to prove.

 

We also lose Holt with Nunez with nobody but Lin in sight. Pedey will be 1-2 years older then.

 

Porcello ain't no horse in my eyes. Way too pricey. In four years with us, he has an accumulated WAR of 8.2 which cost the Sox $73M or about $9M per WAR of 1. That's still cheaper, however, than paying $90M for Price's three seasons and accumulated WAR of 9 or $10M per WAR of 1.

 

Let me also say that I am at the deep end of the pool barely treading water. I hate these GM discussions.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Kimmi]

You can't have it all.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with starters Sale, Price, Eovaldi and E Rod.

 

I will take my chances in playoffs with Betts, JD, Beni, Devers, JBJ (2019-2020), Pedroia, Vazquez.

 

It's about choices. I keep our BEST pitcher in Sale, our BEST player in Betts, and our second most valuable player in JD. Beni and Devers should continue to improve. We'll still have the best defensive outfield for 2019-2020.

 

Do you seriously want to pay Porcello $20M? or Xander $25M?

 

You are not serious, Moon.

 

We could have had it all, with a little better long term planning a few years back.

 

We had it all last year and we have it all again this year.

 

What we are lacking is the young, cost-controlled revolving door needed to replace some of our expensive free agents to be.

 

Yes, IMO, it was possible to have our cake and eat it too.

[moonslav59]

@lindseyadler

 

Aaron Boone says it's "highly unlikely" Luis Severino will be ready for the start of the season.

 

Back to back to back to back.

 

...and Jacko was all in our face about Sale's health!

[jacksonianmarch]

@lindseyadler

 

Aaron Boone says it's "highly unlikely" Luis Severino will be ready for the start of the season.

 

Back to back to back to back.

 

No, he won’t be back by opening day. Looking like a late April return from what Boone is saying. They’ll bring him along slowly. If German is holding his own, they’ll probably push Sevy into May.