A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[BillyWilliams]

True, and if Brasier closes, Barnes appears to be as good a set up man as anyone else. He's improved for 3 straight seasons and looked really good last year.

 

barnes saw a huge spike in his K/9 last year over his career norms

 

Maybe he figured something out or possibly it was an outlier.........

[moonslav59]

DD will 100% keep Xbo

DD will 100% keep betts

everyone else is TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign to stay.

 

Well, they are seeking a Sale extension, so one could argue he is a high priority.)

[Slasher9]

Well, they are seeking a Sale extension, so one could argue he is a high priority.)

 

he falls under the "TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign"

he is not 100% staying.

[moonslav59]

barnes saw a huge spike in his K/9 last year over his career norms

 

Maybe he figured something out or possibly it was an outlier.........

 

He did see a big jump, but a positive trend had been established for 3 seasons in a row.

 

Hits/9:

11.7> 8.4> 7.4> 6.9

The improvement in 2018 was less than any other year.

 

K/9

8.0> 8.2> 9.6> 10.7> 14.0

(The only area of a 2018 spike.

 

K/BB

2.3> 3.0> 3.1

(Nothing out of wach with 2018 here due to more BB/9 in 2018.)

 

FIP

5.23> 3.72> 3.33> 2.71

(Pretty steady improvement with a bigger jump between 2015 and 2016 than 2017 to 2018.)

 

HR/9

1.9> 0.8> 0.9>0.7

(Pretty steady over the last 3 years.)

 

BAbip

.351> .318> .298> .321 (Career .322)

Actually a pretty big jump over his previous 2 years might suggest he did worse than he could have, although his LD% did go up.)

 

GB%

31%> 39%> 46%> 49%> 53%

(Steady growth)

 

I'm not seeing any evidence that 2018 was an outlier, except for the huge K/9 jump, but even that jump was part of a steady upward trend.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

he falls under the "TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign"

he is not 100% staying.

 

Depending on his health this year, yes, but I put him in the same category as Bogey. If Bogey looks like 2017 and not 2018 this year, he's not 100% either.

[notin]

D

Well figure somewhere in the neighborhood of $25M for xander, $30-35M for betts combined with the $31M for price and you would have roughly $90M (more than 1/3 of your payroll) tied up in 3 players......

 

Think Xander gets $25mill? That might be a reach unless he’s AL MVP this year...

[mvp 78]

D

 

Think Xander gets $25mill? That might be a reach unless he’s AL MVP this year...

 

6/130 is my guess today.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure anyone of us know what Henry feels about resetting or staying below this line or that.

 

Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up. Of course, it make s sense to reset, if you want to avoid stiff taxes. To just shrug off that idea is making an assumption not supported by anything. (I understand how I have sounded the same with my "will reset mantra.")

 

If he sets the line at $19.9M over the luxury tax, then yes, we can keep Betts, Boget & Sale, but the rest of our roster will be hard to fill in with above average players. I don't see our farm doing much of that over the next 1-3 years.

 

I am curious where Henry's head's at - because Dombrowski is surely not ACTING like someone who is going to dump their core guys. They are trying to extend Sale. They sat out the prime window to deal Bogaerts. They sat out the prime window to deal Bradley.

[mvp 78]

I am curious where Henry's head's at - because Dombrowski is surely not ACTING like someone who is going to dump their core guys. They are trying to extend Sale. They sat out the prime window to deal Bogaerts. They sat out the prime window to deal Bradley.

 

They're keeping the band together.

[Nick]

I'm not sure anyone of us know what Henry feels about resetting or staying below this line or that.

 

Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up. Of course, it make s sense to reset, if you want to avoid stiff taxes. To just shrug off that idea is making an assumption not supported by anything. (I understand how I have sounded the same with my "will reset mantra.")

 

If he sets the line at $19.9M over the luxury tax, then yes, we can keep Betts, Boget & Sale, but the rest of our roster will be hard to fill in with above average players. I don't see our farm doing much of that over the next 1-3 years.

 

You'd have to pick and choose. If we sign Sale, Xander and 'extend' JD this winter, I won't sign Porcello ($20M), Pearce ($6.275M), Mitch ($6.5M), Holt ($3.575M) and Nunez ($5M). That's $41M plus Pablo's $18.455M. Say $60M. Throw in JBJ and now it's $68M

 

Sale = delta of $18M, Xander = delta of $11M, JD = delta $5M (max), Betts = delta $8M E Rod = delta $3M, Beni = dlta $4M That adds up to $49M. We'd have $20M to pay for other arb raises and cheap signings.

 

SP Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, No Name

BP band of overachievers

 

CF Beni

RF Betts

DH JD

SS Xander

3B Devers

2B Dustin

LF ???????

C Vazquez

1B Chavis/Pearce (sign him for another $6M)

 

 

It's doable. Or we keep JBJ for another year and get a defensive SS.

 

Let some young kids fail as back up options.

 

Idea to is to get to the playoffs and have a stellar starting pitching.....we can win it with Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi in 2020.

[BillyWilliams]

D

 

Think Xander gets $25mill? That might be a reach unless he’s AL MVP this year...

 

He may, but even if he doesn't it will still be in the neighborhood of $20M which doesn't change my point that the sox would then have over 1/3 of their payroll tied up in 3 players.

[BillyWilliams]

They're keeping the band together.

 

Highly improbable.........

[notin]

6/130 is my guess today.

 

 

Maybe?

 

Tough call because the closest comp is Machado. But Machado has been worth 30.2 fWAR for his career and 15.1 fWAR in the past 3 seasons. By comparison, Bogyhas been worth 17.9 fWAR in his career and 12.9 fWAR in the past 3 seasons.

 

Bogaerts is only 3 months younger, so he does hit FA at approximately the same age...

[sk7326]

Highly improbable.........

 

It would seem that way - but they passed on chances to trade some of the guys they have to make decisions on. There was a really strong case to deal Bogaerts - but the team didn't. They clearly are expecting to at least try to keep him. This is not something a team hellbent on resetting would do.

[BillyWilliams]

come on bruh.

torres > pedroia.

duh.

 

Nobody said that, but I'm pretty sure most sox fans would be ecstatic if pedrioa puts up Torres' numbers from last year this coming season.

[sk7326]

Maybe?

 

Tough call because the closest comp is Machado. But Machado has been worth 30.2 fWAR for his career and 15.1 fWAR in the past 3 seasons. By comparison, Bogyhas been worth 17.9 fWAR in his career and 12.9 fWAR in the past 3 seasons.

 

Bogaerts is only 3 months younger, so he does hit FA at approximately the same age...

 

A lot will depend on this season. If Bogaerts matches or exceeds his 2018 output, allaying fears of a fluke, then a 6/130 type of deal is very plausible. Now - that Dombrowski did not trade Bogaerts this offseason seems to indicate the Red Sox are bullish on 2018 not being a fluke.

[moonslav59]

I am curious where Henry's head's at - because Dombrowski is surely not ACTING like someone who is going to dump their core guys. They are trying to extend Sale. They sat out the prime window to deal Bogaerts. They sat out the prime window to deal Bradley.

 

It was also the window to win a ring.

 

When that window closes, hopefully only for 1 year, then the reset makes more sense.

[BillyWilliams]

It would seem that way - but they passed on chances to trade some of the guys they have to make decisions on. There was a really strong case to deal Bogaerts - but the team didn't. They clearly are expecting to at least try to keep him. This is not something a team hellbent on resetting would do.

 

I guess they could keep everyone if they went with a $300M++ payroll.............

[sk7326]

It was also the window to win a ring.

 

When that window closes, hopefully only for 1 year, then the reset makes more sense.

 

"when that window closes" could be highly dependent on their own extend/no extend decisions. But the org is acting like a team that is trying to maximize the window's length. Dombrowski is not doing things somebody expecting the window to close anytime soon would do. It is interesting.

[moonslav59]

You'd have to pick and choose. If we sign Sale, Xander and 'extend' JD this winter, I won't sign Porcello ($20M), Pearce ($6.275M), Mitch ($6.5M), Holt ($3.575M) and Nunez ($5M). That's $41M plus Pablo's $18.455M. Say $60M. Throw in JBJ and now it's $68M

 

Sale = delta of $18M, Xander = delta of $11M, JD = delta $5M (max), Betts = delta $8M E Rod = delta $3M, Beni = dlta $4M That adds up to $49M. We'd have $20M to pay for other arb raises and cheap signings.

 

SP Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, No Name

BP band of overachievers

 

CF Beni

RF Betts

DH JD

SS Xander

3B Devers

2B Dustin

LF ???????

C Vazquez

1B Chavis/Pearce (sign him for another $6M)

 

 

It's doable. Or we keep JBJ for another year and get a defensive SS.

 

Let some young kids fail as back up options.

 

Idea to is to get to the playoffs and have a stellar starting pitching.....we can win it with Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi in 2020.

 

I can't see how we can get under the first luxury tax line with Sale, Bogey, Betts, JD and Price.

 

Where did I go wrong?

 

2020

Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.

Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

 

33 Sale

31 Price

~28M Betts (last arb)

~23M Bogey (re-sign)

22 JDM

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

 

$168M in 7 players

 

~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

~4 Beni (1st of 3)

~3 Barnes (2 of 3)

~2 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Wright (3rd of 3)

~2 Leon (4th of 4)

~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

add $22M

add $15M player benefits

 

$205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

 

The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

 

We can argue about going or not going over the first line next year, but my question was how can we keep all these guys AND stay under.

[sk7326]

I guess they could keep everyone if they went with a $300M++ payroll.............

 

I don't know what they will do - but they seem to be considering it. This is good for me - I am all for teams trying to win - that clearly is an endangered species in the industry.

[BillyWilliams]

I don't know what they will do - but they seem to be considering it. This is good for me - I am all for teams trying to win - that clearly is an endangered species in the industry.

 

So you honestly think they are going to carry a $300M++ recurring payroll??!!

[moonslav59]

I filled in the blanks...

 

SP Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, Wright/Johnson/Velazquez

BP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Lakins, Feltman

 

CF Beni

RF Betts

LF JD

SS Xander

1B Devers

2B Dustin

1B Chavis

3B Dalbec

C Vazquez

[moonslav59]

"when that window closes" could be highly dependent on their own extend/no extend decisions. But the org is acting like a team that is trying to maximize the window's length. Dombrowski is not doing things somebody expecting the window to close anytime soon would do. It is interesting.

 

We had a 5 year window (2015-2019): that's pretty darn long! Maybe we can eek out 2020 by keeping Bogey and Sale, but if we go to reset after 2020- bye bye Betts.

[moonslav59]

So you honestly think they are going to carry a $300M++ recurring payroll??!!

 

$33M Betts

$32M Sale

$31M Price

$24M Bogey

$23M JD

$14M Pedey

 

$158M for 6 players + $15M player benefits= $173M with 34 more guys to pay.

 

It won't be $300M, but we'd have to be over the max line to keep the rest of the roster good enough to compete (replace Porcello, find a 1Bman, pay for arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Barnes...)

 

[Nick]

I can't see how we can get under the first luxury tax line with Sale, Bogey, Betts, JD and Price.

 

Where did I go wrong?

 

2020

Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.

Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

 

33 Sale

31 Price

~28M Betts (last arb)

~23M Bogey (re-sign)

22 JDM

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

 

$168M in 7 players

 

~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

~4 Beni (1st of 3)

~3 Barnes (2 of 3)

~2 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Wright (3rd of 3)

~2 Leon (4th of 4)

~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

add $22M

add $15M player benefits

 

$205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

 

The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

 

We can argue about going or not going over the first line next year, but my question was how can we keep all these guys AND stay under.

 

Your analysis is spot on.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up.

 

The tax rates that you incur in your third year exceeding the first threshold are as high as they go. There are no further increases in Year 4 and beyond.

[sk7326]

We had a 5 year window (2015-2019): that's pretty darn long! Maybe we can eek out 2020 by keeping Bogey and Sale, but if we go to reset after 2020- bye bye Betts.

 

You are operating under assumptions and constraints which make sense ... but (based on their moves) might not align with the Red Sox front office and ownership.

[sk7326]

So you honestly think they are going to carry a $300M++ recurring payroll??!!

 

I think the Red Sox had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history with a roster full of extremely auspiciously aged stars, and Henry is committed to maximizing the potential of that situation. He has shown no indication otherwise - as I've noted above dealing Bogaerts this offseason would have made a ton of sense if he did.

[BillyWilliams]

$33M Betts

$32M Sale

$31M Price

$24M Bogey

$23M JD

$14M Pedey

 

$158M for 6 players + $15M player benefits= $173M with 34 more guys to pay.

 

It won't be $300M, but we'd have to be over the max line to keep the rest of the roster good enough to compete (replace Porcello, find a 1Bman, pay for arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Barnes...)

 

 

Even figuring adding $100M to that $173M and needing to pay 34 more players works out to roughly $2.9M/player

 

Do you think they carry a $273M payroll?