A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[cp176]

No. We’re talking about Moe Lester. Keep up!!

 

It's late - i'm stumbling - got confused Do you mean Noless Nomore?

[cp176]

They might not be there this year, but the Padres are looking pretty damn good for the future.

 

you might be right but I am certainly glad that I don't have to watch his antics 18 or so times this season. Good luck to the Padres. California could use some good news.

[Nick]

So, I guess no reset.

 

 

We can all chip in $100.

[moonslav59]

2020

Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.

Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

 

33 Sale

31 Price

~28M Betts (last arb)

~23M Bogey (re-sign)

22 JDM

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

 

$168M in 7 players

 

~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

~4 Beni (1st of 3)

~3 Barnes (2 of 3)

~2 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Wright (3rd of 3)

~2 Leon (4th of 4)

~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

add $22M

add $15M player benefits

 

$205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

 

The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

 

Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

 

It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

 

The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.

Edited February 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[Nick]

2020

Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.

Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

 

33 Sale

31 Price

~28M Betts (last arb)

~23M Bogey (re-sign)

22 JDM

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

 

$168M in 7 players

 

~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

~4 Beni (1st of 3)

~3 Barnes (2 of 3)

~2 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Wright (3rd of 3)

~2 Leon (4th of 4)

~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

add $22M

add $15M player benefits

 

$205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

 

The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

 

Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

 

It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

 

The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.

 

I just don't think team will FORCE a reset. Key is staying below $20M above the limit. $228M CBP will cost $238M. I think Henry can live with that.

[Larry Cook]

2020

Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter.

Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg

 

33 Sale

31 Price

~28M Betts (last arb)

~23M Bogey (re-sign)

22 JDM

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

 

$168M in 7 players

 

~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs)

~4 Beni (1st of 3)

~3 Barnes (2 of 3)

~2 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Wright (3rd of 3)

~2 Leon (4th of 4)

~2 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

add $22M

add $15M player benefits

 

$205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs.

 

The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M.

 

Even with all the rest of the team at min wage and minor league salaries, we can't keep Sale, Bogey & Betts and reset in 2020.

 

It won't get easier in 2021, when Betts gets his big payday.

 

The only way I can see it happen, is if Pedey retires and gives up his money or agrees to a lifetime services contract to offset his budget hit.

 

1.) that is a lot of cheese for sale. The Sox do know that his shoulder is held together with duct tape and chewing gum, right?

 

2.) why is bogey being resigned?

[jacksonianmarch]

You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon

[notin]

It looks like the Sox have about $114mill set for 2020, assuming JD opts out and not including raises for Betts, Bradley and Benintendi (but it does include their current salaries).

 

That would give them about $76mill to replace Sale, JD, and Bogaerts and someone for 1b (Chavis/Ockimey/Travis?). And there is no guarantee JD opts out, because at age 32, will he be able to top the remaining 3years/$63mill he has left? There is no really good comp on the market with the closest being AJ Pollock, who did not even come close to that AAV.

 

So if JD stays, the Sox have $54mill to give raises and replace Sale and Bogaerts. Resetting is possible if the Sox can replace Bogaerts internally with CJ Chatham, assuming Chatham doesn’t suck.

 

But if it isn’t possible, I’m not so sure Henry is going to lose any sleep...

[Bellhorn04]

It's time to dig up some of jacko's posts from the 2018-2019 Yankees Rumors thread to see what he said about a few things.

 

 

In terms of the two starters we will need, I thought we’d go lefty-lefty before the playoffs. Instead, I think Eovaldi is the guy to get again. Without the cutter, Eo was a Juggs machine half the time and dominant the other. With the cutter, he’s untouchable and he dominated when the chips were down. Time to get him again. I think he will get a big AAV, but likely a shorter guarantee with his injury history. I can see a 4 year $75 mil deal for Eo

 

:D:D

[moonslav59]

1.) that is a lot of cheese for sale. The Sox do know that his shoulder is held together with duct tape and chewing gum, right?

 

2.) why is bogey being resigned?

 

This wasn't my plan. I was trying to show, if there was any way to keep Sale, Bogey and Betts AND reset the tax.

 

The answer was no, so yes, Bogey goes and maybe JBJ, too.

[moonslav59]

I just don't think team will FORCE a reset. Key is staying below $20M above the limit. $228M CBP will cost $238M. I think Henry can live with that.

 

I disagree. I think a reset has to happen after 2019 or 2020, and I feel strongly it will be after this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

You have to factor in raises for every arb eligible player, including JBJ, Betts, ERod, Barnes, Beni etc. if Barnes does well as your closer, he’ll be a very expensive 2nd year arb guy as saves, for some reason, are very important in arb determinations.

[moonslav59]

You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon

 

Losing Porcello and Bogey next year, resetting the tax after this year and going back to spending large in 2021 will not make Betts bolt.

[moonslav59]

You have to factor in raises for every arb eligible player, including JBJ, Betts, ERod, Barnes, Beni etc. if Barnes does well as your closer, he’ll be a very expensive 2nd year arb guy as saves, for some reason, are very important in arb determinations.

 

Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

[notin]

Oh, now Barnes might do well!?!?

 

 

Heck, Barnes might not even close. Obviously only Alex Cora’s opinion matters, but most in the media think Ryan Brasier is the front runner for the job.

 

Brasier is not arb-eligible next year. And as odd as it seems to say, not being arb-eligible might give him an edge for the closer role...

[mvp 78]

You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon

 

If the Sox give Betts the largest offer, he'll stay. That seems pretty obvious to me. Doubt he'd throw it away for one down year where we only win the division with 94 wins rather than 108.

[Nick]

You can not reset after this season unless you’re effectively throwing your hands up and giving up. If you do that, Betts won’t re-sign and you might as well crater and rebuild. I think the Sox let Porcello walk as Eovaldi was signed as his replacement, IMO. The Sox seem intent on re-signing Bogey as well. JDM is gonna opt out and sign elsewhere. The Sale talk is interesting. I keep hearing how the Sox want to re-sign him, but with his balmy shoulder and age, going deep in negotiations with him sounds like a bad decision. I think the Sox can re-sign 2 of their big 4 FAs next year and stay under the final hurdle. I don’t see the Sox resetting below the first hurdle anytime soon

 

It makes no sense to reset unless you have a bad team. Sox is nowhere close to being that.

 

Porcello is goner unless Sale gets away.

 

There's still chance that JD will stick it out for one more year. He's set to make $23.75M in 2020, then drops to $19.375 in 2021. He can opt out for next two years. If I'm JD, I'd wait for 2021 season when Ellsbury's contract is up.

I bet Yankees would love to have him with short right field fence.

 

If Sox can remain competitive with a payroll of $228M or less, they won't reset.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Nick

[kenmeister]

There's going to be some heartache after 2019 no doubt about it. I'm fully expecting Porcello, Bogaerts, and Sale to leave

[Bellhorn04]

There's going to be some heartache after 2019 no doubt about it. I'm fully expecting Porcello, Bogaerts, and Sale to leave

 

I think we retain one of Sale or Porcello.

[notin]

I think we retain one of Sale or Porcello.

 

 

I was going to suggest at least one of Sale or Bogaerts. I don’t think Porcello returns without taking a significant pay cut...

[sk7326]

It makes no sense to reset unless you have a bad team. Sox is nowhere close to being that.

 

Porcello is goner unless Sale gets away.

 

There's still chance that JD will stick it out for one more year. He's set to make $23.75M in 2020, then drops to $19.375 in 2021. He can opt out for next two years. If I'm JD, I'd wait for 2021 season when Ellsbury's contract is up.

I bet Yankees would love to have him with short right field fence.

 

If Sox can remain competitive with a payroll of $228M or less, they won't reset.

 

I am absolutely certain this team will not just reset for resetting sakes. There will be churn - but opportunities are special. Henry clearly understands this better than a lot of owners.

[kenmeister]

I think we retain one of Sale or Porcello.

 

I'm lowering my expectations so that I'm not disappointed.

[BillyWilliams]

If they could retain both Sale and Betts that would be wonderful. That would mean Porcello, Bogaerts and Bradley are all gone, probably. Acquire a good defensive shortstop from somewhere, I guess.

 

Maybe DD is looking at the bullpen as a place to free up some money to enhance the chances of keeping Sale and Betts.

 

Who in the bullpen is making serious money?

[notin]

Who in the bullpen is making serious money?

 

No one right now, which was the point. That DD didn’t go and add big money to the bullpen because he is (present tense) freeing up money to sign/extend the Sox core players like Betts, Bogaerts, Sale,etc...

[BillyWilliams]

No one right now, which was the point. That DD didn’t go and add big money to the bullpen because he is (present tense) freeing up money to sign/extend the Sox core players like Betts, Bogaerts, Sale,etc...

 

Even with going cheap on the bullpen doesn't free up enough cash to sign more than 2 IMO

[Slasher9]

DD will 100% keep Xbo

DD will 100% keep betts

everyone else is TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign to stay.

[Nick]

DD will 100% keep Xbo

DD will 100% keep betts

everyone else is TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign to stay.

 

Yep....they are not just going to let all the talent leave just to reset. Sox did the hard part assembling talent. Sure we'd like our farm to step up and produce some more major leaguers. How stupid is to rebuild at a time we still have talent?

[moonslav59]

Heck, Barnes might not even close. Obviously only Alex Cora’s opinion matters, but most in the media think Ryan Brasier is the front runner for the job.

 

Brasier is not arb-eligible next year. And as odd as it seems to say, not being arb-eligible might give him an edge for the closer role...

 

True, and if Brasier closes, Barnes appears to be as good a set up man as anyone else. He's improved for 3 straight seasons and looked really good last year.

[BillyWilliams]

DD will 100% keep Xbo

DD will 100% keep betts

everyone else is TBD on what kind of contract they are willing to sign to stay.

 

Well figure somewhere in the neighborhood of $25M for xander, $30-35M for betts combined with the $31M for price and you would have roughly $90M (more than 1/3 of your payroll) tied up in 3 players......

[moonslav59]

It makes no sense to reset unless you have a bad team. Sox is nowhere close to being that.

 

Porcello is goner unless Sale gets away.

 

There's still chance that JD will stick it out for one more year. He's set to make $23.75M in 2020, then drops to $19.375 in 2021. He can opt out for next two years. If I'm JD, I'd wait for 2021 season when Ellsbury's contract is up.

I bet Yankees would love to have him with short right field fence.

 

If Sox can remain competitive with a payroll of $228M or less, they won't reset.

 

I'm not sure anyone of us know what Henry feels about resetting or staying below this line or that.

 

Personally, I think it makes sense to reset after 2019 or 2020. Even staying under the $20M line brings a larger and larger tax as consecutive years build up. Of course, it make s sense to reset, if you want to avoid stiff taxes. To just shrug off that idea is making an assumption not supported by anything. (I understand how I have sounded the same with my "will reset mantra.")

 

If he sets the line at $19.9M over the luxury tax, then yes, we can keep Betts, Boget & Sale, but the rest of our roster will be hard to fill in with above average players. I don't see our farm doing much of that over the next 1-3 years.

Edited February 20, 2019 by moonslav59