A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Our Pythagorean record was 103-59, so you were pretty close.

 

One should never predict that their team is going to win 108 games in this crazy freakin' game, IMHO.

 

I agree, but the point was made to show that this thread is not always optimistic. Sometimes the team is better than those on this thread, including myself, think they are.

[moonslav59]

Moon, you don't ever have to apologize for being a homer. I think you keep it pretty real.

 

Same people were predicting imminent demise during the pennant stretch last year.

 

You simply listed the upsides.

 

Yes, and I've discussed the downsides many times, as well.

 

I did get upset with all the naysayers last summer. All teams go through rough patches, and I guess some people just assume the team can only keep playing like they look in the last 2-3 or 7 games, or whatever.

 

To me, we had a great team on paper day one. That awesome start showed we were great. We had some bumps along the way, but we were always great. The playoffs were proof.

[moonslav59]

the Yankees made improvements - the big one was Paxton in the rotation. The signings for the bullpen are nice, but given the extreme volatility of relief pitching, it is hard to call any bullpen all set. I mean the Yankees bragged about being able to make 5 inning games last season and a fat load of good it did in the Division Series.

 

What is interesting about the AL East is that the Rays improved on paper at least as much as the Yankees have, and are coming off of a 90 win season. For all the Sox-Yankee talk, it is actually a 3 team race. I mean if I were to handicap the AL East pct likelihood I'd go:

 

Red Sox 45%

Yankees 35%

Rays 19.9%

Field 0.1%

 

If you look at the hype factor, the Yankee fans were hyping their players last year as much as Paxton now.

 

They had Lynn and Happ, too. Sonny Gray was viewed as a big addition (by me, too). Is how people feel about Paxton now all that much more rosy than they felt about Lynn & Gray last year?

 

Is Ottavino really an upgrade over Robertson?

 

Maybe Didi never comes back or is not the same upon return?

 

All we hear about is the severity of Pedey and Wright's injuries and Sale's status in the second half of 2018.

[notin]

That's why I always thought this should be called the "optimistic thread" and not the realistic view.............

 

 

And if we were to go to a Yankee board, all the enthusiasm would be grounded in reality, right?

[notin]

Moon, that’s a homer post if I’ve ever seen one, wow. Yes, you subtracted Drew Pomeranz. You’re replacing Pomeranz (who ended up as the last guy in your pen) with more Brian Johnson time. Johnson is not good, so this might end up a wash

 

You guys keep talking about Steven Wright. He had another knee surgery in November. He’s likely to start the year on the DL. He had the same surgery as pedroia. Counting him as death isn’t a great idea

 

Pearce has never proven to be anything more than a platoon guy, and now he’s a 36 yr old platoon guy

 

Eovaldi for a full year will help, assuming he plays the full year. He’s the man of glass with questionable yearly production. You’re expecting the guy from the playoffs. You’ll see him in spurts, but a lot of frustration will accompany him

 

Sale and ERod are healthy? Sale wasn’t healthy to end the year with a shoulder problem. How do you know he’s going to be healthy? He missed 10 starts due to the injury and there was no post season resolution. And ERod is likely healthy, but he’s also made of glass. He’s never proven to stay healthy

 

Nunez looked slow last year. The knee injury from 2017 clearly isn’t fixed. He didn’t have a procedure. You’ll see more of the same.

 

Brock Holt is a very solid super sub. If he is your full year starting 2b, his effectiveness will wane

 

Devers should be better. He’s better than his 2018 showed

 

Your 1b platoon got way more than you could have hoped. Moreland played to his career norms. HanRam was good for a month. Pearce hit like JD for two months. Asking for more is greedy

 

Lol, expecting improvement offensively from the C position when they’re not hitters is rosy glasses.

 

Expecting improvement from JBJ is the same. He’s streaky.

 

You guys got a good Price season, a great Sale 2/3 season, career type seasons from JD, Bogey, and Betts. You lost one of the best closers in baseball and a rather reliable setup man and aren’t replacing them. Actual big league depth isn’t there. Outside of Porcelli, every pitcher in your rotation has questions, three of the arm related. While I guess you could say the Sox May improve in fantasy land somewhere, chances are one of your pitchers is gonna miss the year. Your middle of the order won’t be AS devastating.

 

You’re in the AL East. The Sox, Yanks and Rays won nearly 300 games. The yanks and rays got better. If you’re not getting better, you fall behind

 

But how much better are the Yankees and Rays? The Yankees finished EIGHT GAMES behind the Sox last year. Do your additions - which so far is just Paxton, Ottavino, LaMahieu and a half season of Britton - make up an eight game difference? Especially factoring in the losses of Robertson and at least a half season of Grigorius?

 

Even if your adds make the Yankees four games better and the Sox (and only the Sox, because apparently Yankees never regress) are 3 games worse, that’s still not enough...

[sk7326]

If you look at the hype factor, the Yankee fans were hyping their players last year as much as Paxton now.

 

They had Lynn and Happ, too. Sonny Gray was viewed as a big addition (by me, too). Is how people feel about Paxton now all that much more rosy than they felt about Lynn & Gray last year?

 

Is Ottavino really an upgrade over Robertson?

 

Maybe Didi never comes back or is not the same upon return?

 

All we hear about is the severity of Pedey and Wright's injuries and Sale's status in the second half of 2018.

 

I think the Yankees have some credible outs if Gregorius is hurt. Gray was terrible, but he also showed signs of being terrible when he got dealt. Lynn was just a warm body for a rotation that was undergoing its annual Severino running out of gas. Paxton projects to be a legitimate #2/#3 starter. If he could just give them some certainty that will be a big deal. As I noted above, I discount bullpen signings some because year to year consistency is so low in general. That said Ottavino is fine, and Britton if he stays healthy will be quite good. (as he got healthy last season that murderous ground ball rate came back) I think they have done a little more than Boston who has really just kept their October team together more or less. But that is still a heck of a team, with legitimate room to improve at 2B and 3B. Put another way, I think it is much more likely Devers will make a leap to another level than Andujar. The Wild Card for the Yankees lineup is Sanchez pretty clearly.

 

I think the Sox should be favored to win the division - though if the bet was us vs the field, I'd probably take the field.

[Nick]

According to Cot's, Sox still has $8.4M before going over the ultimate hell limit of $246M.

 

That's plenty of money for DD to do what he did last summer.

 

We're good to go.

 

My thought is if we fail this year, it won't be the bullpen that will derail us.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Cot's, Sox still has $8.4M before going over the ultimate hell limit of $246M.

 

You're right. I thought we were a little closer than that to the limit.

[dgalehouse]

I think it is fair to say that the Yankees have improved, even without Machado , so far this off season . Fair to say the Rays have also improved. I don't see where the Sox have improved at all . However, we did win the division by a comfortable margin last year . As always , there are all kinds of maybes , could bes , should bes , what ifs and might happens to think about. Injuries are always a big factor. Have our rivals closed the gap enough to overtake us ? We will just have to play the games to find out .

[BillyWilliams]

I think the Yankees have some credible outs if Gregorius is hurt. Gray was terrible, but he also showed signs of being terrible when he got dealt. Lynn was just a warm body for a rotation that was undergoing its annual Severino running out of gas. Paxton projects to be a legitimate #2/#3 starter. If he could just give them some certainty that will be a big deal. As I noted above, I discount bullpen signings some because year to year consistency is so low in general. That said Ottavino is fine, and Britton if he stays healthy will be quite good. (as he got healthy last season that murderous ground ball rate came back) I think they have done a little more than Boston who has really just kept their October team together more or less. But that is still a heck of a team, with legitimate room to improve at 2B and 3B. Put another way, I think it is much more likely Devers will make a leap to another level than Andujar. The Wild Card for the Yankees lineup is Sanchez pretty clearly.

 

I think the Sox should be favored to win the division - though if the bet was us vs the field, I'd probably take the field.

 

What makes you feel that way?

[Bellhorn04]

I think it is fair to say that the Yankees have improved, even without Machado , so far this off season . Fair to say the Rays have also improved. I don't see where the Sox have improved at all.

 

You must have a low opinion of Eovaldi and Pearce.

[dgalehouse]

I think the Yankees have some credible outs if Gregorius is hurt. Gray was terrible, but he also showed signs of being terrible when he got dealt. Lynn was just a warm body for a rotation that was undergoing its annual Severino running out of gas. Paxton projects to be a legitimate #2/#3 starter. If he could just give them some certainty that will be a big deal. As I noted above, I discount bullpen signings some because year to year consistency is so low in general. That said Ottavino is fine, and Britton if he stays healthy will be quite good. (as he got healthy last season that murderous ground ball rate came back) I think they have done a little more than Boston who has really just kept their October team together more or less. But that is still a heck of a team, with legitimate room to improve at 2B and 3B. Put another way, I think it is much more likely Devers will make a leap to another level than Andujar. The Wild Card for the Yankees lineup is Sanchez pretty clearly.

 

I think the Sox should be favored to win the division - though if the bet was us vs the field, I'd probably take the field.

 

Not sure what you mean by " the field " . Essentially , the Sox and the Yankees are the contenders. The Rays have a very , very slim chance . The O's and Jays chances are well beyond slim .

[BillyWilliams]

But how much better are the Yankees and Rays? The Yankees finished EIGHT GAMES behind the Sox last year. Do your additions - which so far is just Paxton, Ottavino, LaMahieu and a half season of Britton - make up an eight game difference? Especially factoring in the losses of Robertson and at least a half season of Grigorius?

 

Even if your adds make the Yankees four games better and the Sox (and only the Sox, because apparently Yankees never regress) are 3 games worse, that’s still not enough...

 

That was last year which really has nothing to do with this year.

[Bellhorn04]

That was last year which really has nothing to do with this year.

 

Wow, that's some innovative thinking right there.

[dgalehouse]

You must have a low opinion of Eovaldi and Pearce.

 

Not at all . I have a good opinion of them . But they were part of the team last year . And no one should expect them to repeat their World Series heroics . The only difference is they will be here from the start . We have not improved on the group that celebrated in Dodger Stadium. We got off to a fantastic start last year . I don't think we can improve on that . I just don't consider it an improvement by just keeping what you already have .

[sk7326]

Not sure what you mean by " the field " . Essentially , the Sox and the Yankees are the contenders. The Rays have a very , very slim chance . The O's and Jays chances are well beyond slim .

 

The field = any of the other teams in the division

 

The Rays won 90 games last year and have added talent. The Red Sox could be the exact same team qualitatively and be 8 games worse just due to close game luck. Same applies to the Yankees. Now as I noted, I think the Rays odds are low relative to the other teams, but hardly very very slim. You get to 95 wins (possible) and you enter the "possible" range.

[dgalehouse]

The field = any of the other teams in the division

 

The Rays won 90 games last year and have added talent. The Red Sox could be the exact same team qualitatively and be 8 games worse just due to close game luck. Same applies to the Yankees. Now as I noted, I think the Rays odds are low relative to the other teams, but hardly very very slim. You get to 95 wins (possible) and you enter the "possible" range.

Okay . I take it you are saying that we would be favored to beat the Yankees , but you would not pick us against an entry of the Yankees and Rays . I just disagree. I think it is basically a two team race . I would be very surprised if the Rays won the division. Very surprised.

[moonslav59]

According to Cot's, Sox still has $8.4M before going over the ultimate hell limit of $246M.

 

That's plenty of money for DD to do what he did last summer...

 

 

Yes! When you make trades at the deadline, you only count 1.3 of the salary. In theory, we could trade for 3 guys making salaries of $8M and only owe $8M.

 

That's better than signing one guy to 8M/1 right now.

[moonslav59]

Okay . I take it you are saying that we would be favored to beat the Yankees , but you would not pick us against an entry of the Yankees and Rays . I just disagree. I think it is basically a two team race . I would be very surprised if the Rays won the division. Very surprised.

 

I say...

 

60% BOS

35% NYY

5% Others

[notin]

Okay . I take it you are saying that we would be favored to beat the Yankees , but you would not pick us against an entry of the Yankees and Rays . I just disagree. I think it is basically a two team race . I would be very surprised if the Rays won the division. Very surprised.

 

If the odds were something like Boston 45%, New York 30%, Tampa 20%, Others 5%, then you’re simply playing favorites by taking Boston over NY, but taking the field over Boston...

[dgalehouse]

If the odds were something like Boston 45%, New York 30%, Tampa 20%, Others 5%, then you’re simply playing favorites by taking Boston over NY, but taking the field over Boston...

 

If . If . If . I do understand how betting works . But thanks for the imaginary scenario .

[Slasher9]

Robot catchers now!

 

hahaha. this literally made me lol.

[Slasher9]

But how much better are the Yankees and Rays? The Yankees finished EIGHT GAMES behind the Sox last year. Do your additions - which so far is just Paxton, Ottavino, LaMahieu and a half season of Britton - make up an eight game difference? Especially factoring in the losses of Robertson and at least a half season of Grigorius?

 

Even if your adds make the Yankees four games better and the Sox (and only the Sox, because apparently Yankees never regress) are 3 games worse, that’s still not enough...

 

this.

we absolutely put the car in neutral and COASTED in September. pedal to the metal we would have won the division by 15 games.

2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

[mvp 78]

It's gonna be a war for second place, man.

 

back to back to back to back

[moonslav59]

back to back to back to back

 

Jack!

[Bellhorn04]

Jack!

 

Four sure.

[Kimmi]

And if we were to go to a Yankee board, all the enthusiasm would be grounded in reality, right?

 

We don't have to go to a Yankee board.

 

The Yankee enthusiasm here isn't all grounded in reality.

[Kimmi]

According to Cot's, Sox still has $8.4M before going over the ultimate hell limit of $246M.

 

That's plenty of money for DD to do what he did last summer.

 

We're good to go.

 

My thought is if we fail this year, it won't be the bullpen that will derail us.

 

We have a winner.

[dgalehouse]

Let's put it this way . If we ( God forbid ) do fall short this year , and it appears that it was the bullpen that derailed us , we certainly will not admit it . We will come up with other reasons . It's what we do .

[Kimmi]

Let's put it this way . If we ( God forbid ) do fall short this year , and it appears that it was the bullpen that derailed us , we certainly will not admit it . We will come up with other reasons . It's what we do .

 

I give you permission to call me out personally if we fall short this year due to our bullpen. And I give you permission to say "I told you so!"