A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I never said Eovaldi is better than Happ, but whenever we bring up the fact that we will be helped by having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season, you crap all over the notion.

 

Both teams will be helped by having these players for a full season. I never said it would be equal or more of a gain for the Sox.

 

Stop strawmaning.

 

Maybe I am reading this wrong, maybe not. When I see you note you have Eovaldi and Pearce, it seems as if you're assuming they're better than Happ and Britton. If not, then my mistake. Either way, yes, the sox have Eovaldi and Pearce. Yet those two are far from reliable players. Eovaldi has never been consistent and is in rarified air in terms of a healthy rehab from a second TJS. Pearce is a journeyman utility player. Those two took you on the ride of your life in the playoffs, don't get me wrong, but expecting them to be the highlight of your squad is fools gold. I have far more faith in the returning trade duo in NY than you should in the ones in Boston. But the sox, outside of bringing those guys back, have left holes that weren't there last year with Kelly and Kimbrel gone, whereas the Yanks added Lemahieu and Paxton while replacing Robertson with Ottavino

[moonslav59]

Maybe I am reading this wrong, maybe not. When I see you note you have Eovaldi and Pearce, it seems as if you're assuming they're better than Happ and Britton. If not, then my mistake. Either way, yes, the sox have Eovaldi and Pearce. Yet those two are far from reliable players. Eovaldi has never been consistent and is in rarified air in terms of a healthy rehab from a second TJS. Pearce is a journeyman utility player. Those two took you on the ride of your life in the playoffs, don't get me wrong, but expecting them to be the highlight of your squad is fools gold. I have far more faith in the returning trade duo in NY than you should in the ones in Boston. But the sox, outside of bringing those guys back, have left holes that weren't there last year with Kelly and Kimbrel gone, whereas the Yanks added Lemahieu and Paxton while replacing Robertson with Ottavino

 

No way am I going to say we have gotten better over the offseason by more than the Yanks, or even that we are currently better off than 2018.

 

There's a trend of you reading more into what I am saying...

 

Someone said the Yanks got better by adding Ottavino. I said they did not. He just replaced Robertson. You jumped on me as if I was implying the whole team has gotten worse.

 

I recognized the Yanks got better by adding Paxton and having Happ and Britton for a full season, but that the "differential" of the gain is lessened by the fact that we have Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season. I never said it evened it all up, yet you keep acting like I'm saying that.

 

I mentioned we we could get better by some players doing better or returning from injuries or partial year injuries. You jump all over that by creating a more than one good year criteria for anyone to have a shot at being helpful this season.

 

Look, I realize you have guys coming back from injuries, too. You have several players who missed some time last year that may not this year. You have Didi out for a while and questions about his arm when he does get back. We all have ifs.

 

You guys have done a good job filling your biggest need areas over this winter. As of yet, we have not.

 

I still like our chances this season, and I know it will not be easy.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

We are both gonna make the playoffs and if the non division winner can win the WC game, we’ll have a redux in the ALDS I’m sure. It’ll be fun

[moonslav59]

We are both gonna make the playoffs and if the non division winner can win the WC game, we’ll have a redux in the ALDS I’m sure. It’ll be fun

 

Houston may end up playing or beating one of us in the ALDs.

[moonslav59]

It's hard as hell to repeat. We've won 4 times in the last 15 years. That's more than anyone else, but we've never even won 2 out of 3 years.

 

We have lots of question marks, as do all teams, but we also have lots of areas we can see improvement. Maybe we'll see enough improvement is those areas that we can offset the declines we are bound to see in other areas.

 

Sale's health and durability can make a big difference between a Cy Young type season or less to much less.

 

David Price: has he reinvented himself after a somewhat rough start with the Sox? He's still young enough to have a great season, but certainly questions are present.

 

Porcello is the rock of the staff, but even he has shown a range from Cy Young ability to much less.

 

ERod clearly has nasty stuff. He was off to a fantastic start last year, but the injury bug, once again, derailed his progress.

 

Eovaldi is maybe the biggest question mark of the rotation. 2 TJ surgeries. A record of very few long seasons. Nasty stuff. High upside.

 

Wright had a serious injury, but he was close to being ready for the playoffs, so there may be high hopes he's ready for 2019.

 

Johnson & Velazquez offer some hope for decent starter depth or mid to long relief from the pen, but it's hard to get overly optimistic here.

 

The pen is clearly the our weakest area, but it may end up being closer to average than bottom tier, assuming no significant additions.

 

Barnes seemed to solidify his position as a reliable RP'er.

Brasier could turn out to be a flash, but he throws smoke and looked like he could handle pressure well.

Hembree has always seemed like he's ready to break out, but he never does. I'm not that hopeful with him, but's he's been decent more than not.

Workman has had several good to decent years and could possibly fill a key set-up role.

Thornburg and Smith have both had a great season followed by an injury and slow recovery.

Poyner, Walden, Putman, Lakins, Feltman and some AAA starters could get a pen look or two.

 

Vazquez and Leon are very good on defense and seem to be great at handling our staff and getting the very best from them. I'm happy with them, but their offense really stunk last year. From 2014 to 2017, both had an OPS of .666. Last year, Leon was 155 points below that number and Vaz was 126 below it. There is room for some significant gain on offense at the catching position. It might seem like .666 is still bad, but gaining over 100 points can't be bad. Swihart will likely be traded, but it's nice to have a 3rd catcher who can play elsewhere and provide more opportunities to PH for our weaker hitting catcher.

 

1B offer a very good chance to improve. Pearce has an .863 OPS vs LHPs since 2014 (9th best out of 30 1Bmen with 400+ PAs). Moreland has a .782 OPS vs RHPs since 2015. That's not great, but it's not bad (21st best out of 30 with 1000+ PAs), and his defense is very good. Put them together, and they could really improve on the 2018 OPS of .794. Of course, they may not, but if they can stick to a true platoon, I think .820+ is not out of the question.

 

2B is probably the biggest question mark on the team other than the pen. Pedey's injury is such that even if he looks great, it could all end on one slight twist of the knee or slip on a base. Speaking of knees, if Nunez could look more like 2017 than 2018, we'd be fine. Holt looks like maybe he finally solved the durability issues, and he could end up winning the job and doing well enough that we won't need to find another Kinsler this year.

 

Bogey has few questions other than his lack of growth on defense. However, his offense more than makes up for any lack of defense, and he seems to be coming into his own as an all around offensive threat.

 

3B has questions, but perhaps Devers offers our best chance to see a massive gain from 2018. His defense seemed to be better as the season progressed. The questions about Nunez at 2B are the same as at 3rd, but range is not as important at 3rd. I like our chances of significant gains at 3B in 2019.

 

Beni may also take a big step forward. He was kind of up and down over 2018 and struggled vs LHPs for long stretches, but he ended up with very nice numbers for his age. I'm not worried here, and his defensive and base running gaffs have been reduced.

 

JBJ is always a question mark, but he had his longest stretch of consistency of his whole career in 2018. His poor first 6 weeks hurt his overall numbers, so there is hopes we can see a gain in CF. His defense is A+.

 

Betts had the best year I've ever seen from a Sox RF'er and maybe of all positions. He could decline some, for sure, but I'm not really expecting it. If he does a little worse, but doesn't go on the DL, we might still get a boost overall.

 

JD was a godsend. He was everything we needed him to be and had a great influence on other hitters. I'm not worried here.

 

Sure, lots of questions but lots of hopes, too.

 

Maybe we add a quality RP'er to lessen the fears there, but waiting until the season to see how things shake out should be okay.

 

How many days to the first ST'ing game?

[Kimmi]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.

 

On paper, the Red Sox are still the favorites, both in terms of WAR and in terms of Vegas odds. We all know that the season usually doesn't play out the same way as preseason projections do, but as far as the GM's off season job is concerned, you want the team that is a contender on paper. That's really all you can ask.

 

We could have a team that is very heavily favored to win the division, and the Yankees could still beat us.

[Kimmi]

in terms of WAR we rank last season:

1B 18th

2B 22th

3B 27th

CF 15th

C 30th

 

Those are quite ugly.

 

I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I do not think our catchers were the worst in MLB. WAR does not include a lot of intangibles such as CERA related skills. If Leon & Vaz just hit their career OPS, we'll see a near 100 point gain right there. That's not unreasonable to assume.

 

Pearce will be here 6 months not two, so that should boost our 1B ranking along with maybe Moreland possibly & finally having an injury- free season.

 

Pedey is a big if at 2B, but maybe Nunez's knee improves and his defense doesn't drag down the WAR number.

 

JBJ might be consistent all year, and that would be a big boost.

 

Devers missed time, and again, if Nunez is healthy, we may see a big gain here.

 

I get it- lot's of ifs, but I like our chances at seeing gains at most of these positions- maybe enough to make up for a decline we may see from our pen.

 

Fellow Homer Moon, I am with you 100%.

 

{Fist Bump!}

[Kimmi]

We also got and kept Happ

 

Back to back to back to back.

[cp176]

I don't think and I am certainly hoping that DD isn't done putting this year's version together. If he adds to the bullpen and if Sale and Eovaldi go into the season healthy, I would find it very hard to believe that the Sox would not be favorites to win the East once again.

[sk7326]

That's ridiculous. Happ pitched circles around Eovaldi for the final two months of the season. Eovaldi has a good October and all of a sudden, he's amazing. I have seen this before. Newsflash, he's gonna be maddeningly inconsistent for you. Pearce is a journeyman platoon mate. Happ and Britton will have a higher WAR than Eovaldi and Pearce in 2019. Those are the two players we each acquired at the break last year

 

I am grateful Hal is pocketing his money.

[sk7326]

We are both gonna make the playoffs and if the non division winner can win the WC game, we’ll have a redux in the ALDS I’m sure. It’ll be fun

 

It seems likely - though Tampa has been very aggressive and absolutely has a chance of beating at least one of them in the standings. I would not bet it - but it would not shock me either.

[Bellhorn04]

I am grateful Hal is pocketing his money.

 

Don't speak too soon sk. The Yanks projected 2019 payroll for tax purposes is about 220 mill right now, so they will be paying some tax. It looks like they'll be shedding Gray's 7.5 mill out of that. But I won't be shocked it there are more additions to come. They're just going in some different directions than expected.

[sk7326]

Don't speak too soon sk. The Yanks projected 2019 payroll for tax purposes is about 220 mill right now, so they will be paying some tax. It looks like they'll be shedding Gray's 7.5 mill out of that. But I won't be shocked it there are more additions to come. They're just going in some different directions than expected.

 

There probably is - they of all teams are in no position to treat the tax limit like a salary cap.

[Nick]

Back to back to back to back.

 

 

Over the next three years, Yankees will have 9,12 and 13 arbitration eligible players. They are no different than the Sox. Their payroll will expand.

 

Can we just quit bickering with the lone Yankee fan on this board? They are the greatest team ever assembled on paper. I will concede.

 

As you profoundly stated, it's not like our closer is going to blow every game he enters. Teams with lead going into ninth inning usually wins.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

Our arb requirements do rise as the years go on. But we don’t have a dead farm system by any means, which gives us the option to develop players or trade for cheaper replacements. Plus, by the time our pre arb guys get really expensive, the new CBA will be in place

[notin]

Back to back to back to back.

 

Our arb requirements do rise as the years go on. But we don’t have a dead farm system by any means, which gives us the option to develop players or trade for cheaper replacements. Plus, by the time our pre arb guys get really expensive, the new CBA will be in place

 

 

The Yankee farm might not be as great as you think. MLB.com had only one prospect (Flovial) ranked ahead of Chavis at 69. Loasigia (sp?) was technically ranked ahead at 66, but really he was so close it was essentially equal.

 

Bleacher Report does give the Yankees 2 top 100 and 3 Tier 2 prospects, but acknowledges at best, the Yankee farm is average. And BR seems to be the only one ranking the Yankee farm as high as 15.

 

The Sox farm is still awful. It’s just that us Sox fans recognize it...

Edited January 20, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

Soon, we will be done with all our albatross contracts, except for maybe Pedey's, which is not massive anyways.

 

We have a lot of key player reaching free agency within a short 2 year window. While that is very problematic, it's not as bad as having multiple long term deals on the books that may start turning bad as those players age.

 

I firmly believe we will reset- probably after this season, and we will suffer for a year or two, at least in the sense that we will not be a top 10 favorite for at least a year. Yes, that's my opinion.

 

How long it takes to get back to serious contention depends on a few things:

 

1) The farm will need to produce some talent, and I'm talking Beni/Devers talent not the Lins and Poyners of the world.

2) Our budget will likely have to rise near the $40M line again to get to be a top contender quickly.

3) DD cannot make any major mistakes in signings or trades and must limit small mistakes.

4) DD will have to keep finding guys like Eovaldi, Peatce & Nunez for cheap in mid season dealings.

5) Cora, who I already think is the best Sox manager I have ever seen, will have to show how he can work with a team not loaded with studs.

6) Our young players will have to improve as the near and reach prime (Devers, Beni, ERod and others).

 

I'm not complaining. DD built us a 4-5 year window with a top competitive team. That's not easy to do, and I'll take a down year or two as a consequence.

 

4 rings in 15 seasons, baby! That's fantastic!

 

Thanks Henry.

Thanks Theo.

Thanks Ben.

Thanks DD.

Thanks to everyone who has made this the greatest stretch in Red Sox history!

[Kimmi]

I am grateful Hal is pocketing his money.

 

I'm actually surprised that he hasn't signed Machado, after his comments earlier about how much he hates being beat by the Red Sox.

[sk7326]

I'm actually surprised that he hasn't signed Machado, after his comments earlier about how much he hates being beat by the Red Sox.

 

The Yankees spend barely a 1/3 of their revenue on players - if they think that Machado-Andujar is not a better infield for the next 5 years for the money than Andujar and Vogt/Bird, I can't (and will happily not) help them. Now, I am not saying the Yankees won't sneak in on Machado - anything is possible - but it is silly for them to be sitting out entirely.

[sk7326]

Soon, we will be done with all our albatross contracts, except for maybe Pedey's, which is not massive anyways.

 

We have a lot of key player reaching free agency within a short 2 year window. While that is very problematic, it's not as bad as having multiple long term deals on the books that may start turning bad as those players age.

 

I firmly believe we will reset- probably after this season, and we will suffer for a year or two, at least in the sense that we will not be a top 10 favorite for at least a year. Yes, that's my opinion.

 

How long it takes to get back to serious contention depends on a few things:

 

1) The farm will need to produce some talent, and I'm talking Beni/Devers talent not the Lins and Poyners of the world.

2) Our budget will likely have to rise near the $40M line again to get to be a top contender quickly.

3) DD cannot make any major mistakes in signings or trades and must limit small mistakes.

4) DD will have to keep finding guys like Eovaldi, Peatce & Nunez for cheap in mid season dealings.

5) Cora, who I already think is the best Sox manager I have ever seen, will have to show how he can work with a team not loaded with studs.

6) Our young players will have to improve as the near and reach prime (Devers, Beni, ERod and others).

 

I'm not complaining. DD built us a 4-5 year window with a top competitive team. That's not easy to do, and I'll take a down year or two as a consequence.

 

4 rings in 15 seasons, baby! That's fantastic!

 

Thanks Henry.

Thanks Theo.

Thanks Ben.

Thanks DD.

Thanks to everyone who has made this the greatest stretch in Red Sox history!

 

The next 3 years should still field solid contenders. As I've noted before - no point worrying about say 4 seasons from now ... this system won't stay in place.

[moonslav59]

I'm actually surprised that he hasn't signed Machado, after his comments earlier about how much he hates being beat by the Red Sox.

 

Could the secret team be the Yanks?

[dgalehouse]

There is a " mystery team " in on Machado . That's what we need here ...... A " mystery poster ." Edited January 21, 2019 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

Bets on who the mystery team is?

 

SF?

 

NY?

 

STL?

 

LAA?

 

 

 

[a700hitter]

bets on who the mystery team is?

 

Sf?

 

Ny?

 

Stl?

 

Laa?

 

 

 

nyy

[moonslav59]

nyy

 

Just like the old days. They lay back and then swoop.

[notin]

There is a " mystery team " in on Machado . That's what we need here ...... A " mystery poster ."

 

 

History typically says the “mystery team” is made up by the agent as a negotiating ploy...

[moonslav59]

History typically says the “mystery team” is made up by the agent as a negotiating ploy...

 

Probably true, but there are times when a team not reported to be in the hunt for a FA suddenly signs them out of the blue.

[Kimmi]

The Yankees spend barely a 1/3 of their revenue on players - if they think that Machado-Andujar is not a better infield for the next 5 years for the money than Andujar and Vogt/Bird, I can't (and will happily not) help them. Now, I am not saying the Yankees won't sneak in on Machado - anything is possible - but it is silly for them to be sitting out entirely.

 

Personally, I think the Yankees weakness lies in their starting rotation. I would love to see the Yankees get saddled with another huge contract for a position player that, IMO, isn't really an area of need. Machado would likely help the team, but I don't think the impact would not be that great over what they already have. Plus, there is the baggage that Machado carries with him.

 

Despite what the Yankees are saying, I never count them out from signing a free agent. They are ready to pounce at any moment, if they see fit.

[Kimmi]

Could the secret team be the Yanks?

 

The Yankees are always involved with these types of players. Until Machado actually signs with another team, you can't count them out.

[notin]

Probably true, but there are times when a team not reported to be in the hunt for a FA suddenly signs them out of the blue.

 

 

True. But given the amount of press coverage they typically get, I would imagine it’s difficult for the Yankees to maintain mystery team status for long...