A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dannycater]

Guys, I wish I had the analytical view of trying to dissect what the Sox can do to "improve." But either we do it the same way, win a 100 again which is very possible, or it's going to be a bounceback from greatness only because trying to match '18 is pretty much trying to match the gold standard. Hard to repeat, but harder to duplicate. Maybe we can do that. Go Sox!!!

[moonslav59]

Good to see you, Danny.

 

We will likely be worse in a few areas, but we have a good chance at staying the same or improving in a few areas. Will those improvements offset the declines enough for us to win the division again?

 

I think so, but it won't be easy.

 

Areas we may see improvement:

 

3B: Hopefully, Devers stays healthy and shows some gains after his step back on offense last season.

 

1B: Pearce all year should help.

 

2B: Pedey, Holt and Nunez- between them, maybe we improve over 2018.

 

CF: Maybe JBJ stays steady all season long.

 

SP: Eovaldi all year can help. ERod and Sale staying healthy is another way to improve.

 

C: Both catchers had terrible offensive seasons. We don't need them to do better, but if they just return to their career norm, we could see a near 100 point gain in catcher OPS.

[oldtimer]

Good to see you, Danny.

 

We will likely be worse in a few areas, but we have a good chance at staying the same or improving in a few areas. Will those improvements offset the declines enough for us to win the division again?

 

I think so, but it won't be easy.

 

Areas we may see improvement:

 

3B: Hopefully, Devers stays healthy and shows some gains after his step back on offense last season.

 

1B: Pearce all year should help.

 

2B: Pedey, Holt and Nunez- between them, maybe we improve over 2018.

 

CF: Maybe JBJ stays steady all season long.

 

SP: Eovaldi all year can help. ERod and Sale staying healthy is another way to improve.

 

C: Both catchers had terrible offensive seasons. We don't need them to do better, but if they just return to their career norm, we could see a near 100 point gain in catcher OPS.

 

Actually, I certainly hope Devers will show lome losses, in his all to hefty weight.

 

Right now we don't really know the makeup of either our second base squad and depth chart nor do we know who will be catching until something is done to clarify that. Still awaiting news from the Sox front office.

[mvp 78]

Actually, I certainly hope Devers will show lome losses, in his all to hefty weight.

 

Right now we don't really know the makeup of either our second base squad and depth chart nor do we know who will be catching until something is done to clarify that. Still awaiting news from the Sox front office.

 

Devers had a 2.2 DsR.

 

Devers is faster than any of there 1b's, C's, 2b's and JD. The only utility guy faster than Devers is Nunez.

[mvp 78]

He has average 3b speed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=5&team=&min=150

[kenmeister]

SP: Eovaldi all year can help. ERod and Sale staying healthy is another way to improve.

 

The starting rotation could indeed be a juggernaut.

 

Sale - if he can have a "complete" season, he'll win the Cy Young

Price - if he can continue last year's second half into this coming season, he could win 20 games

Porcello - a repeat of last year would be fine

E-Rod - if he stays healthy he should be up around 18 wins

Eovaldi - if he's really as good as I think he is, he should also be up in the high teens

 

Two 20 game winners and three 18s? It's not unrealistic.

[Kimmi]

The rise of Betts is not really so much just protection in the lineup. His hard hit rate has gone up every year, including 2017...

 

The rise of Betts has nothing to do with protection in the lineup.

[Kimmi]

The starting rotation could indeed be a juggernaut.

 

Sale - if he can have a "complete" season, he'll win the Cy Young

Price - if he can continue last year's second half into this coming season, he could win 20 games

Porcello - a repeat of last year would be fine

E-Rod - if he stays healthy he should be up around 18 wins

Eovaldi - if he's really as good as I think he is, he should also be up in the high teens

 

Two 20 game winners and three 18s? It's not unrealistic.

 

Any of those guys are capable of winning 18 games. Having them all win that many games in the same season is probably not going to happen. That said, if they can stay relatively healthy and have reasonably good luck, they will be tough to beat.

[cp176]

He has average 3b speed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=5&team=&min=150

 

Devers has a very unique build. He is not slow. There are actually times when he has looked fast.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers has a very unique build. He is not slow. There are actually times when he has looked fast.

 

Devers is going to be a stud, I think.

[moonslav59]

The starting rotation could indeed be a juggernaut.

 

Sale - if he can have a "complete" season, he'll win the Cy Young

Price - if he can continue last year's second half into this coming season, he could win 20 games

Porcello - a repeat of last year would be fine

E-Rod - if he stays healthy he should be up around 18 wins

Eovaldi - if he's really as good as I think he is, he should also be up in the high teens

 

Two 20 game winners and three 18s? It's not unrealistic.

 

I know Dr Jacko has all but written off Steven Wright, but I'm still hopeful he can work his way into a meaningful role with the 2019 team. I'm not all that optimistic about Johnson and Velazquez for any role beyond 6th or 7th starter and middle/long relief. (I'm hopeful they can do well in thos roles.)

 

[moonslav59]

Devers has a very unique build. He is not slow. There are actually times when he has looked fast.

 

I would feel better, if he lost some weight, but I'm not so sure the situation is as dire as some seem to think it is. I think the saga of Pablito is scaring people.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still look at Devers body type and see a 1b. He is so thick in the legs. Maybe he could drop a few lbs, but the build screams power, not agility. He will be your long term 1b

[Larry Cook]

I still look at Devers body type and see a 1b. He is so thick in the legs. Maybe he could drop a few lbs, but the build screams power, not agility. He will be your long term 1b

 

Can’t devers just be himself and not have a cookie cutter build to play 3rd?

[oldtimer]

I still look at Devers body type and see a 1b. He is so thick in the legs. Maybe he could drop a few lbs, but the build screams power, not agility. He will be your long term 1b

 

A young guy who is about 6' tall and weighs 235# is too heavy. The Sox said he was getting help from a nutritionist. Hope so if he is to have a long career.

[cp176]

A young guy who is about 6' tall and weighs 235# is too heavy. The Sox said he was getting help from a nutritionist. Hope so if he is to have a long career.

 

In general I agree with you oltimer but there are many instances where these guys just don't fit the mold. I have a 5'8" nephew who weighed 205 at Dever's age. he could dunk a bb and you literally could not find one ounce of fat on his body. Looks to me like he is built somewhat like a football player. He has a thick body. I think diet will be important to him moving forward but if he he works hard to maintain agility there is no reason why he won't be a fixture for us at third base.

[moonslav59]

In general I agree with you oltimer but there are many instances where these guys just don't fit the mold. I have a 5'8" nephew who weighed 205 at Dever's age. he could dunk a bb and you literally could not find one ounce of fat on his body. Looks to me like he is built somewhat like a football player. He has a thick body. I think diet will be important to him moving forward but if he he works hard to maintain agility there is no reason why he won't be a fixture for us at third base.

 

I totally agree, but we must remember Pablo was pretty nimble & nifty at 3B for quite a while before he suddenly wasn't.

[moonslav59]

I still look at Devers body type and see a 1b. He is so thick in the legs. Maybe he could drop a few lbs, but the build screams power, not agility. He will be your long term 1b

 

I've thought he was destined for 1B almost from day one, but he has pretty quick reflexes and deserves a chance to show he can make it at 3B.

 

We have an opening at 1B next season, so this season may be his best chance to prove he's a 3Bman.

[mvp 78]

I would feel better, if he lost some weight, but I'm not so sure the situation is as dire as some seem to think it is. I think the saga of Pablito is scaring people.

 

Devers weighs the same as Xander. If he didn't have a round baby face, no one would question his weight.

[mvp 78]

I totally agree, but we must remember Pablo was pretty nimble & nifty at 3B for quite a while before he suddenly wasn't.

 

This just isn't true at all.

[moonslav59]

This just isn't true at all.

 

Yes it is. He was a pretty good defensive 3Bman for a few years. He was quick and had decent footwork skills.

 

The 4 years before coming to Boston, Pablo put up these numbers with SF:

 

+4.2 UZR/150 (7th in MLB)

 

+ 13.9 Range Factor (5th best in MLB)

 

That's in a very significant sample size of almost 4,200 innings!

[notin]

This just isn't true at all.

 

 

It’s very true. Sandoval was a surprisingly good defensive 3b in San Fran for a while. It was odd watching that nimble blob dancing around 3b...

[cp176]

I totally agree, but we must remember Pablo was pretty nimble & nifty at 3B for quite a while before he suddenly wasn't.

 

I agree but Pablo was undeniably fat. I don't really think Devers is built like him.

[moonslav59]

I agree but Pablo was undeniably fat. I don't really think Devers is built like him.

 

I don't either, and I'm not concerned much at all about his weight.

 

I was glad to see some progress on defense by the end of 2019. I hope he continues to build on that growth on defense.

[oldtimer]

Devers weighs the same as Xander. If he didn't have a round baby face, no one would question his weight.

 

Xander is 210 and is taller. Devers was listed at 235 but its not clear where he is now. Guess we will hear during spring training. I hope he gets down to 220 or less as it might give him additional agaility at 3rd base and reduce the wear on his joints.

[notin]

Take listed weights with a grain of salt.

 

For example, the Yankees list Luke Voit at 225 pounds. No way. If he weighs 225, it sure as Hell isn’t in pounds...

[Dojji]

Devers weighs the same as Xander. If he didn't have a round baby face, no one would question his weight.

 

Xander's quite heavy for a SS and his range took a step backwards this year. The bat still makes it an excellent overall package, but there's a decent chance that Xander does the Ernie Banks/John Valentin/Rico Petrocelli thing and has to move to the corners as he gets older.

[kenmeister]

Xander's quite heavy for a SS and his range took a step backwards this year. The bat still makes it an excellent overall package, but there's a decent chance that Xander does the Ernie Banks/John Valentin/Rico Petrocelli thing and has to move to the corners as he gets older.

 

Devers to first, Xander to third, and we bring back Iglesias to play short? I'm surprised he's still unsigned.

[moonslav59]

Xander's quite heavy for a SS and his range took a step backwards this year. The bat still makes it an excellent overall package, but there's a decent chance that Xander does the Ernie Banks/John Valentin/Rico Petrocelli thing and has to move to the corners as he gets older.

 

I was one who felt Bogey would and should be moved to 3B early on. He hasn't bulked up like some projected, and his growth on defense has been slow and sporadic, but he looks like he'll be a SS for a while longer.

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Devers to first, Xander to third, and we bring back Iglesias to play short? I'm surprised he's still unsigned.

 

Whoa that works for me. I'm a big Devers guy but I don't see him ever being anything other than a below average 3rd baseman and that may be generous.