A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

I don't consider Chavis a key, low-cost piece to the future of our team, despite our need for a 1Bman after this year.

 

I'm not for trading Casas, Groome, Mata, Flores and many other long shot prospects we currently have.

 

Is Mata your new prospect-crush? And have you officially broken up with Marco Hernandez?

[moonslav59]

How much value does one year of Madison Bumgarner and his 240 IP in the last two seasons combined have?

 

Someone will overpay.

[moonslav59]

Is Mata your new prospect-crush? And have you officially broken up with Marco Hernandez?

 

LOL

 

My past "crushes" include Travis Shaw, Garin Cecchini and Henry Owens.

 

Let's hope Mata gives some love back.

[notin]

Someone will overpay.

 

Which doesn’t establish any value. Bumgarner is a name with a question mark at this point, despite his relatively young age...

[notin]

I

Not directed at you.

 

But we want it both ways. Build the farm, trade away the farm.

 

Michael Chavis is ranked #1 in Sox Prospect List.

 

And he has no future as a major leaguer in Boston? I guess our farm is worse than I thought.

 

Soxprospects.com ranks him number one, but Baseball America has Dalbec as the Sox top prospect. Fangraphs has Casas as the top prospect, but is essentially tied with Chavis and Hernandez with a 45 for future value. That’s a decent FV score overall, but it does mean the system is weak if no one has an FV score above 45.

 

Chavis can be traded and probably will be. And when it comes to bolstering the bullpen, either he or Dalbec should be...

[Bellhorn04]

Which doesn’t establish any value. Bumgarner is a name with a question mark at this point, despite his relatively young age...

 

One thing to be noted about Bummer is that a big chunk of that missed time was due to an off-field injury which had nothing to do with his arm.

[notin]

One thing to be noted about Bummer is that a big chunk of that missed time was due to an off-field injury which had nothing to do with his arm.

 

 

He injured his left shoulder in a dirt bike accident. While it was off field - and off road as well, it was still the shoulder attached to his throwing arm.

 

Last year he injured his left hand on a line drive hit back through the box. While not likely to recur, both of these two injuries might impact how he throws in the future...6

[Bellhorn04]

He injured his left shoulder in a dirt bike accident. While it was off field - and off road as well, it was still the shoulder attached to his throwing arm.

 

My bad. I failed to do my research.

[notin]

My bad. I failed to do my research.

 

 

1 demerit. But I believe there is an appeal process...

[notin]

FanGraphs managing editor Jeff Sullivan suggests that Will Smith may have more trade value than Madison Bumgarner:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-go-get-will-smith/

 

 

Did you notice the original proposal for Smith included the Sox top and number three prospects per Baseball America? Sure most teams 1 and 3 represent better players, but apparently BA felt it was a better package than you did...

[Kimmi]

But the fact you did it without adding Harper or Machado? And you might still be signing Ottavino or another reliever.

 

I figured they would blow past the luxury tax limit, but I really figured it would be for either Harper or Machado.

 

Perhaps the Yankees are making sure they will be able to reset again in 1-2 years and are therefore avoiding the mega contract.

[Kimmi]

It does frustrate me to watch Betts take the best pitches so often, but he ends up getting a hit or walk on other pitches. Yes, I do think he can get better, and this stat is one big reason why.

 

Agreed.

 

Perhaps this is part of the reason why Cora wants to move Betts to the 2 hole.

[Kimmi]

Personally I think expecting him to improve on 346/438/640 is dreamtime.

 

Probably.

 

OTOH, perhaps being a little more aggressive will keep him from regressing.

[cp176]

If Chavis was traded I would not bat an eye. I would like to see them keep Dalbec.

[notin]

If Chavis was traded I would not bat an eye. I would like to see them keep Dalbec.

 

 

They’re both pretty equal in my eyes.

 

I think they could be combined into one prospect called Dalvis.

 

Or Chabec. Your call...

[harmony]

Did you notice the original proposal for Smith included the Sox top and number three prospects per Baseball America? Sure most teams 1 and 3 represent better players, but apparently BA felt it was a better package than you did...

I don't have access to the Baseball America rankings but Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are ranked No. 4 and No. 5 by SoxProspects, No. 6 and No. 7 by MLB Prospect Watch and No. 2 and No. 7 by FanGraphs.

[moonslav59]

If Chavis was traded I would not bat an eye. I would like to see them keep Dalbec.

 

Me, too, but Dalbec's insanely high K rate might make him a lesser choice.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably.

 

OTOH, perhaps being a little more aggressive will keep him from regressing.

 

Oh, I have the utmost confidence in Mookie, Cora and the hitting instructors, including J D Martinez.

[moonslav59]

Oh, I have the utmost confidence in Mookie, Cora and the hitting instructors, including J D Martinez.

 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Betts & JD have even better years in 2019.

 

I think it is more likely Devers, Beni and JBJ improve, and maybe we'll see 3 or 4 out of these 5 do the same or better.

 

That would be huge!

[moonslav59]

Updated Competitive Balance Tax Budget

 

$Millions

 

31.0 Price

22.0 JDM

20.6 Porcello

20.0 Betts

18.5 Sandoval

17.0 Eovaldi

15.0 Sale

13.8 Pedroia

12.0 Bogaerts

8.6 Bradley

6.5 Moreland

6.3 Pearce

5.0 Nunez

4.5 Vaz

4.3 Rodriguez

3.6 Holt

3.3 Barnes

2.5 Leon

1.8 Thornburg

1.8 Wright

1.3 Hembree

1.2 Workman

0.9 Swihart

~4 Other 18 players on 40 man roster

14.5 Player Benefits

 

TOTAL: ~$240M

 

(That's $34M over the tax line already- leaving us maybe about $6M for further additions, if we try to stay under the $40M line.)

[notin]

I don't have access to the Baseball America rankings but Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are ranked No. 4 and No. 5 by SoxProspects, No. 6 and No. 7 by MLB Prospect Watch and No. 2 and No. 7 by FanGraphs.

 

 

You misrepresent.

 

Using Future Value numbers, Fangraphs had Hernandez tied for first and Dalbec tied for fourth...

[harmony]

You misrepresent.

 

Using Future Value numbers, Fangraphs had Hernandez tied for first and Dalbec tied for fourth...

Working off the FanGraphs rankings released on Thursday:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/

[notin]

Working off the FanGraphs rankings released on Thursday:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

 

Again, it’s Fangraphs. The FV is the important column...

[harmony]

Again, it’s Fangraphs. The FV is the important column...

The highest FV for a Red Sox prospect is 45 while the other 10 teams ranked so far each have at least three prospects with higher FV, including the Atlanta Braves with 10 prospects with higher FVs.

[moonslav59]

The highest FV for a Red Sox prospect is 45 while the other 10 teams ranked so far each have at least three prospects with higher FV, including the Atlanta Braves with 10 prospects with higher FVs.

 

What does that have to do with the discussion at hand?

 

We know our farm is weak.

 

The talk was about who is the best of what we have.

[notin]

The highest FV for a Red Sox prospect is 45 while the other 10 teams ranked so far each have at least three prospects with higher FV, including the Atlanta Braves with 10 prospects with higher FVs.

 

 

Oh I’m thinking at least 20, possibly 25 teams will have at least one prospect with an FV above 45. This is not news....

[moonslav59]

Oh I’m thinking at least 20, possibly 25 teams will have at least one prospect with an FV above 45. This is not news....

 

20-25 seems about right.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, it's usually a nice thing, if you don't have any 50+ prospects to have more than three 45 FVs and five 40+FVs.

 

It's not easy to rebuild a farm under the new rules, especially when you win your division 3 years in a row and go over the tax limit as often and as far as we do.

 

I'm trying to stay hopeful, but it's hard to be optimistic about our farm.

 

We seem to be getting worse. Last year, they had us with two 50 FVs (Chavis & Groome) and five 45s (Houck, Travis, Mata, Beeks, Hernandez).

 

(11 were at 40.)

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by moonslav59

[harmony]

What does that have to do with the discussion at hand?

 

We know our farm is weak.

 

The talk was about who is the best of what we have.

I joined the discussion when the honorable notin asked whether Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez would be enough to land "stud" reliever Will Smith:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19013-A-Realistic-View-at-2019-Part-I/page147?highlight=stud

 

Feel free to follow the discussion from there, including when notin directed me to the FanGraphs FV.

[moonslav59]

The highest FV for a Red Sox prospect is 45 while the other 10 teams ranked so far each have at least three prospects with higher FV, including the Atlanta Braves with 10 prospects with higher FVs.

 

Actually, the Braves have 11 ranked higher than our best. Our best 3 are ranked as 45FV. Their 11th best is a 45+. They have 3 more guys ranked 45- like our best 3.

 

MIA has 5 at 45+ or better and 5 at 45.

 

NYM have 5 and 3.

 

PHI have 6 & 4.

 

WSH 4 & 1

 

CHC 4 & 4

 

Cincy 7 & 2

 

PIT 5 & 4

 

MIL 3 & 3

 

STL 3 & 2