A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's official: Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85M.

 

You'd think we could have done something to shed $851K. Red Sox will owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax payments,

 

Oh well.

[jacksonianmarch]

And since three picks didn't sign last year, the sox drop from 33 to 43. They lost 10 spots and $477K (after the 5% overage) in draft pool loss

[moonslav59]

And since three picks didn't sign last year, the sox drop from 33 to 43. They lost 10 spots and $477K (after the 5% overage) in draft pool loss

 

Plus, when Kimbrel signs elsewhere, we don't get the normal slot comp pick.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Plus, when Kimbrel signs elsewhere, we don't get the normal slot comp pick.

 

 

You get the 136th pick in the draft

[Larry Cook]

So would we rather have the ring and 43rd pick in th draft or the 33rd pick in the draft and an extra 477k of pool money.

 

Let’s face it, we plowed all our chips into the middle of the table and we won. Big time!

 

Now we leave the house a little tip as we head to the crazy horse 2 for some well deserved fun and games until it’s time to sit back down at the table and do it all over again!

 

This was an incredibly exciting season and such a joy to witness first hand. A couple years ago we were at the nadir, now we are at the pinnacle, why sweat the small stuff!

[Station 13]

You get the 136th pick in the draft

 

after the 4th round. I wonder how they force the big market clubs to agreeing to those terms.

[Bellhorn04]

after the 4th round. I wonder how they force the big market clubs to agreeing to those terms.

 

Well, it's a collective agreement, so you have to make some concessions. And big market teams still have a nice advantage unlike in the NFL.

[Bellhorn04]

It's official: Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85M.

 

You'd think we could have done something to shed $851K. Red Sox will owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax payments,

 

Oh well.

 

Sure, they could have not acquired Kinsler, or Pearce.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, it's a collective agreement, so you have to make some concessions. And big market teams still have a nice advantage unlike in the NFL.

 

It’s basically just those who are over the cap. Large or mid market aside. You jump the cap, your comp picks will drop

[Bellhorn04]

It’s basically just those who are over the cap. Large or mid market aside. You jump the cap, your comp picks will drop

 

That's right. I'm fine with it, and all Sox fans should be. We ploughed through all the limits in quest of a ring. We got the ring, we have to pay the penalties.

 

That said, it also points out that it wouldn't be a very sharp strategy to do this every year.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s basically just those who are over the cap. Large or mid market aside. You jump the cap, your comp picks will drop

 

How many teams, honestly, are in a position to pay $250 million in payroll costs (including the taxes)?

 

Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, maybe one or two others?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You don't want this to happen every year, but if it happens occasionally, no big deal at all. This is basically Ben Cherington's mess. John Henry decided that he wasn't going to handicap the team due to Cherington's mismanagement. John Henry is the greatest owner in baseballl--no one else has won 4 championships in the 21st Century.

[Dojji]

I agree, I'm fine with it, we sang the song and danced the dance, time to pay the piper.

 

Make no mistake, Henry made money this year on the team. Team valuations make a huge spike with a new Championship.

[notin]

You don't want this to happen every year, but if it happens occasionally, no big deal at all. This is basically Ben Cherington's mess. John Henry decided that he wasn't going to handicap the team due to Cherington's mismanagement. John Henry is the greatest owner in baseballl--no one else has won 4 championships in the 21st Century.

 

 

Cherington only saddled the Sox with two bad contracts totaling less than $40mill AAV. (Castillo is not part of the Luxury Tan calculations.). That still leaves over $200 mill for the parts of the team that won the title. I would hope that’s a workable budget for any GM...

[jacksonianmarch]

How many teams, honestly, are in a position to pay $250 million in payroll costs (including the taxes)?

 

Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, maybe one or two others?

 

The comp pick drops once you jump the first threshold.

[notin]

If the Sox can repeat, Dustin Pedroia would be the first player in team history to win four rings with the Red Sox. Right now, he is tied at three with David Ortiz (04, 07, 13), Harry Hooper (1912, 1915, 1918) and Heinie Wagner (1912, 1915, 1918).

 

Duffy Lewis would also be on this list, but he did not play in 1918 as he was serving in the Navy. He returned to MLB in 1919, but as a Yankee...

[kenmeister]

It's official: Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85M.

 

You'd think we could have done something to shed $851K. Red Sox will owe $11,951,091 in luxury tax payments,

 

Oh well.

 

I'm curious now how often the team that spent the most won the World Series.

[moonslav59]

Sure, they could have not acquired Kinsler, or Pearce.

 

We probably still win without Kinsler, but I was thinking more about us possibly traded Pom and eaten all but $1.4M of his contract, or some other way to dump a bit of salary. Maybe throw in another prospect and have the opposing teams pay $851K more of pearce's or Eovaldi's contracts.

 

I have to think moving up 10 slots is worth $851K.

[moonslav59]

I'm curious now how often the team that spent the most won the World Series.

 

Hard to know, since budgets were not public knowledge for many years.

 

I bet it's less than 20% of the time.

[Nick]

Let's turn around the conversation the other way. For all your negative nannies.

 

If we found out that the team in order to save 10 slots in the draft failed to sign that critical player at midyear or give up someone that could have helped down the line was the cause of the Sox not winning it all, how would we all react?

 

I seriously doubt after each transaction, you can calculate it to the penny how much you are over, no? Is the player benefit component set in stone before end of the season? Also how do you KNOW that Pom was NOT NEEDED back in July?

 

Again, we have bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks and penny pinchers wanting heads on both sides of the coin. I want these guys investing my money because apparently they know exact lows and highs in every stock transaction.

 

GOOD f***ING GRIEF. I'll take every penalty for winning the world series.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Let's turn around the conversation the other way. For all your negative nannies.

 

If we found out that the team in order to save 10 slots in the draft failed to sign that critical player at midyear or give up someone that could have helped down the line was the cause of the Sox not winning it all, how would we all react?

 

I seriously doubt after each transaction, you can calculate it to the penny how much you are over, no? Is the player benefit component set in stone before end of the season? Also how do you KNOW that Pom was NOT NEEDED back in July?

 

Again, we have bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks and penny pinchers wanting heads on both sides of the coin. I want these guys investing my money because apparently they know exact lows and highs in every stock transaction.

 

GOOD f***ING GRIEF. I'll take every penalty for winning the world series.

 

I'm not complaining. I'm not arguing we should have risked anything.

 

I'm a bored Sox fan looking for something to talk about.

 

My guess is, the Sox probably thought they'd end up under the $40M tax and miscalculated, but certainly, I could be wrong.

 

I'm not even sure we'd have found a taker for Pom, or how much money the other teams already paid for Eovaldi and Pearce.

 

I do think it would have been nice to have found a way, in hindsight argument only, to have saved $850K and got a better draft slot and more money to spend on draftees. Shoot me for wondering out loud!

[Bellhorn04]

We probably still win without Kinsler, but I was thinking more about us possibly traded Pom and eaten all but $1.4M of his contract, or some other way to dump a bit of salary. Maybe throw in another prospect and have the opposing teams pay $851K more of pearce's or Eovaldi's contracts.

 

I have to think moving up 10 slots is worth $851K.

 

Full marks for trying, but no GM in their right mind would have paid a nickel for the version of Pomeranz that was on display in 2018.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's turn around the conversation the other way. For all your negative nannies.

 

If we found out that the team in order to save 10 slots in the draft failed to sign that critical player at midyear or give up someone that could have helped down the line was the cause of the Sox not winning it all, how would we all react?

 

I seriously doubt after each transaction, you can calculate it to the penny how much you are over, no? Is the player benefit component set in stone before end of the season? Also how do you KNOW that Pom was NOT NEEDED back in July?

 

Again, we have bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks and penny pinchers wanting heads on both sides of the coin. I want these guys investing my money because apparently they know exact lows and highs in every stock transaction.

 

GOOD f***ING GRIEF. I'll take every penalty for winning the world series.

 

Alright Nick. I like the fire in this post!

[Station 13]

As far as lux tax is paid out, since it began in 2003, Boston paid just $27M vs 340M the Yankees have paid. I always chuckles at the concerns the media here make mountain out a mole hill.

[moonslav59]

As far as lux tax is paid out, since it began in 2003, Boston paid just $27M vs 340M the Yankees have paid. I always chuckles at the concerns the media here make mountain out a mole hill.

 

Good points, but the projections of our taxes looks to be much higher going forward. The rates go up sharply the more consecutive years you go over.

[moonslav59]

I'm not for trading Porcello, but if we are really serious about cutting the budget, what about trading Porcello for a top prospect and cheap RP'er under team control for 2+ years, and then sign Kikuchi for $7-8M a year x 4-5 years?

 

I realize we don't really want to add a lefty and take away a righty, but in terms of money, we'd save over $11M in 2019, add to our farm, fix the pen to some extent and see how Kikuchi compares to Porcello next year (and beyond).

 

Again, I'm not for trading Porcello. He has been the rock of our rotation for several years.

[jacksonianmarch]

As far as lux tax is paid out, since it began in 2003, Boston paid just $27M vs 340M the Yankees have paid. I always chuckles at the concerns the media here make mountain out a mole hill.

 

Never have those penalties hurt us on the field beyond just paying out cash. The sox are the first team to incur a penalty with tangible talent detracted without bringing talent in. Losing $2.5 mil in draft pool and losing 2 picks in the 30s is a significant hit as will the drop in INTL funds. Think about this for a second. The sox would have had the 33rd and 36th (Kimbrel) picks in the draft. They will now have the 43rd and 136th picks in the draft. Their draft pool drops by $2.5 mil, which hurts the chances of drafting a guy high who will cost less and dropping back to get a signability case. They also will lose $1 mil in IFA funds. To put that into perspective, the sox will have one extra pick on the Yankees but about $200K less in funds, and by draft order would have only picked two spots after the Yanks

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not for trading Porcello, but if we are really serious about cutting the budget, what about trading Porcello for a top prospect and cheap RP'er under team control for 2+ years, and then sign Kikuchi for $7-8M a year x 4-5 years?

 

I realize we don't really want to add a lefty and take away a righty, but in terms of money, we'd save over $11M in 2019, add to our farm, fix the pen to some extent and see how Kikuchi compares to Porcello next year (and beyond).

 

Again, I'm not for trading Porcello. He has been the rock of our rotation for several years.

 

Two problems with this. Porcello isn't an ace. He's a guy you throw into the middle of your rotation and be happy. Also, Porcello isn't cheap. Look at what the Yanks gave up for Paxton. Paxton isn't durable, so theres a knock, but he is an ace level pitcher when healthy. He is under cheap control for 2 seasons and all he cost was one top prospect, a high floor pitcher and an OFer with promise who was old for his league in 2018. The likelihood of getting a top prospect for Porcello and getting salary relief is low. You are likely looking at dealing him away for something valuable and another contract or getting some B level players and ridding yourselves of the contract entirely. This is why Porcello is on your team still. His worth to the sox vs what he would be worth elsewhere is tilted significantly. There is also the matter of your main rival being very RH dominant and the rest of your staff being left handed sans Eo.

[cp176]

Let's turn around the conversation the other way. For all your negative nannies.

 

If we found out that the team in order to save 10 slots in the draft failed to sign that critical player at midyear or give up someone that could have helped down the line was the cause of the Sox not winning it all, how would we all react?

 

I seriously doubt after each transaction, you can calculate it to the penny how much you are over, no? Is the player benefit component set in stone before end of the season? Also how do you KNOW that Pom was NOT NEEDED back in July?

 

Again, we have bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks and penny pinchers wanting heads on both sides of the coin. I want these guys investing my money because apparently they know exact lows and highs in every stock transaction.

 

GOOD f***ING GRIEF. I'll take every penalty for winning the world series.

 

Great post here Nick. Everybody here probably knows that it is the way I view the whole show. Now, what I am also pretty sure that you realize is that there are also people who post here who actually believe that if we had not traded for whoever etc. and had not signed Martinez we still would have had great shot at still winning. Things are going to get tougher moving forward but I'm not buying the gloom and doom and unrest predicted by the pro cliff pro window crowd. Great moves were made to win a world series and I suspect more of the same as we move forward but once again I have been labeled as unrealistic. Oh well!

[cp176]

I'm not complaining. I'm not arguing we should have risked anything.

 

I'm a bored Sox fan looking for something to talk about.

 

My guess is, the Sox probably thought they'd end up under the $40M tax and miscalculated, but certainly, I could be wrong.

 

I'm not even sure we'd have found a taker for Pom, or how much money the other teams already paid for Eovaldi and Pearce.

 

I do think it would have been nice to have found a way, in hindsight argument only, to have saved $850K and got a better draft slot and more money to spend on draftees. Shoot me for wondering out loud!

 

 

I'm a little bored right now too Moon and more than likely I'm going to try to stir up a little trouble.