A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Biases of one sort or another are a part of the human condition. When it comes to the Red Sox , fans do have their favorites and their not so favorites. There can be various reasons for it , maybe some are actually subconscious. Who knows ? But it is a reality. Not trying to fault anyone here , just pointing out what seems fairly obvious.

 

Closers tend to fall out of favor with fans when they become 'heart attack' closers. The same thing happened with Papelbon.

[Bellhorn04]

Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-sox-top-advisor-ignites-fury-all-you-players-can-be-replaced/

[cp176]

I think Henry gives away Ferrari’s as tips to valet attendants. But that has nothing to do with how much money he is willing to spend on the Red Sox, whether or not he plans to stick to CBA payroll limits, and how much he likes paying luxury tax. Ever met a wealthy person who liked paying taxes?

 

He is already paying Dombrowski for his expertise in building baseball teams. As it doesn’t require an expert to throw large sums of money at every big name player, it is possible he has different expectations from DD than some of us do...

 

I think that the amount of money that JH has will be an absolute direct factor in how much he is willing to spend. The amount he has has everything to do with how much is willing to spend. He knows what comes in and what goes out. It is a fun exercise for us to try and project how much he is willing to spend isn't it. He will pay more in taxes than most but he won't if he doesn't feel that the return on his money will more than replace what is going out. With respect to paying taxes, quite honestly I know no one who looks forward to paying them whether they are rich or poor.

[dgalehouse]

Well, the two could very easily be closely related. They all fall under the same payroll.

 

In fact, I’d say looking at a potential Kimbrel contract without keeping future considerations in mind is the very definition of short-sighted.

 

As fans, we have the luxury of just wanting whatever it takes in 2019 and worrying about everything after as it gets here. But Dombrowski doesn’t. It’s his job to be mindful of future impact. And as he’s been doing it for a long time, we can only asssume he knows this and will do his best to act accordingly...

 

I am pretty confident that Sox management knows what they are doing here. I don't think they will do anything now that negatively impacts their plan for the future.

[dgalehouse]

Biases of one sort or another are a part of the human condition. When it comes to the Red Sox , fans do have their favorites and their not so favorites. There can be various reasons for it , maybe some are actually subconscious. Who knows ? But it is a reality. Not trying to fault anyone here , just pointing out what seems fairly obvious.

 

Just to add to that : It is okay for us fans to have our favorites and our not so favorites , but it is not okay for management. A successful management needs to be as objective as humanly possible.

[dgalehouse]

Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-sox-top-advisor-ignites-fury-all-you-players-can-be-replaced/

 

That's the way it is with some of these analytical metric " geniuses " ; they start thinking they know it all. So much smarter than those who actually play the game.

Edited November 8, 2018 by dgalehouse

[dgalehouse]

I think that the amount of money that JH has will be an absolute direct factor in how much he is willing to spend. The amount he has has everything to do with how much is willing to spend. He knows what comes in and what goes out. It is a fun exercise for us to try and project how much he is willing to spend isn't it. He will pay more in taxes than most but he won't if he doesn't feel that the return on his money will more than replace what is going out. With respect to paying taxes, quite honestly I know no one who looks forward to paying them whether they are rich or poor.

 

John Henry has been great about spending whatever it takes to win. But there is always limit to it. The problem with having a really great team is that you simply cannot afford to keep them all.

[Kimmi]

It seems to me that , whatever value you may or may not put on a closer , Craig Kimbrel has never really been a favorite of some posters. Some did not want him here , think we gave up too much to get him and want him gone now. And that's okay. We all want to win and we all have our opinions on how to do it.But here is a fact : Kimbrel is a seven time all star and boasts a career ERA of 1.90 . It is not easy to fill those shoes. Not an opinion, simply a fact. As far as his age is concerned, he is the same age as Chapman. The same age as Joe Kelly . Brazier is a year older. Guys like Adam Ottavino and Andrew Miller are three years older. I can certainly understand not wanting to give Kimbrel a big money , long term contract . Exactly what the team's spending limitations are is really not known to us , but I would agree you don't want to go overboard on a closer. One thing though; you better have somebody who you can reliably count on to close the show.

 

I don't think that's an accurate interpretation of what posters are saying about Kimbrel. I love Kimbrel. I want him here and I'd like to keep him as our closer for next year. I have never liked what we gave up for him. If we do re-sign him, I am pretty sure I'm not going to like the contract. At the same time, I'll continue to be happy to have him on my team.

[Kimmi]

Bill James apparently lost his marbles on Twitter.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/11/08/red-sox-top-advisor-ignites-fury-all-you-players-can-be-replaced/

 

Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

 

Which is spot on.

[redsoxrules]

the Boston Red Sox win the 2018 World Series if FILL IN THE BLANK is the Closer the entire year.

You can literally put in any RP name in the Blank and we still have a parade.

that is how dominate we were this year.

in fact....i would say that we won the World Series IN SPITE of Craig Kimbrel. i could have pitched his stat line this postseason.

Craig Kimbrel is completely overrated for the 2018 season. thanks for the 3 years pal - good luck at your next stop and with your next contract. i want zero to do with it or you.

 

This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.

[Kimmi]

That's the way it is with some of these analytical metric " geniuses " ; they start thinking they know it all. So much smarter than those who actually play the game.

 

Well, in most cases this is the truth.

[Kimmi]

This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.

 

My belief has always been that there are far better ways to spend your resources than on a closer, or bullpen in general. I'm not saying that building a strong pen isn't important, just that it can be done relatively cheaply. There is a reason why replacement level for relievers is so low.

[dgalehouse]

This is bang on. The Sox would of won this year with or without Kimbrel. I wouldn't say he was awful the full year as he did have a decent year up until late in the year but I would prefer to let him go over signing a huge 5 year contract. Spending 15-20 MIL on a player that will only see about 60 ish innings is way too much.

 

It is easy to say that now. The Sox were able to pull away down the stretch and win the division with something to spare. But it was a close race with the Yankees most of the season. Kimbrel had 42 saves , while most of the bullpen had their ups and downs. I do agree that giving Kimbrel a huge 5 year contract would not be smart. But thinking you can win with just any jabroni closing games is not smart either.

[dgalehouse]

Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

 

Which is spot on.

 

Well , certainly no player is worth a ludicrous contract. But there is no consensus on just how much is considered ludicrous. There is a free market out there. People like Bill James don't consider the business side of it. They are just looking at player performance and how it shows up in things like WAR. But they forget that having a winning and exciting team results in much higher attendance, TV ratings , advertising money , concession sales , merchandise revenue, fan interest,public relations and so forth. These things are important. The perennial low budget teams lose out on all of this. They become reduced to being pretty much welfare cases. Wards of MLB. Content to lose , rebuild , lose , look at the empty seats and take the revenue sharing and luxury tax money. The kicker is that their owners are every bit as wealthy as the others.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

 

Which is spot on.

 

He expressed his point in a pretty over-the-top way. 'The players are NOT the game, any more than the beer vendors are.'

 

He deleted the tweets and the Red Sox quickly distanced themselves from the opinions.

 

Not very smart IMHO

[sk7326]

Well, I think his overall point is that no player is worth signing to a ludicrous contract.

 

Which is spot on.

 

His view of what a ludicrous contract was weird. Plus, he got his economic theory way wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox may have won without Kimbrel. But that’s impossible to say. Maybe another closer blows 10 saves instead of 5. Maybe another closer has a Price-Yankees complex and blows 5 games to NY. That’s enough to make the difference right there. Point is, you had a lights out closer sans the first two playoff rounds due to pitch tipping. You don’t know what his replacement may have done in the same workload. I have a feeling you’re about to find out

[sk7326]

The Sox may have won without Kimbrel. But that’s impossible to say. Maybe another closer blows 10 saves instead of 5. Maybe another closer has a Price-Yankees complex and blows 5 games to NY. That’s enough to make the difference right there. Point is, you had a lights out closer sans the first two playoff rounds due to pitch tipping. You don’t know what his replacement may have done in the same workload. I have a feeling you’re about to find out

 

He was very good. His fundamentals were not great with an absurdly low BABIP and shaky command. There are very few special closers - Mariano Riveras aren't around every day and 2013 Koji Uehara sure as hell isn't. Closers - at least the middle 95% of them - aren't magic.

[jacksonianmarch]

He was very good. His fundamentals were not great with an absurdly low BABIP and shaky command. There are very few special closers - Mariano Riveras aren't around every day and 2013 Koji Uehara sure as hell isn't. Closers - at least the middle 95% of them - aren't magic.

 

No, they aren't. But there are also plenty of guys who have the talent who shrink in the moment or flashes in the pan that fall by the wayside. Think about it. If Kimbrel blew out his elbow in ST, who closes? Barnes probably? And has he proven he can lock down the 9th? Would he have been any good? It helps to have an experienced hammer at the end of the pen. There are plenty of guys with a middle relief track record and stuff galore who just shrink as a closer. A certain 6'8" current Yankee comes to mind

[moonslav59]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

[iortiz]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

Good vibes to you moon. Everything is going to be alright, you’ll see.

[OH FOY]

Best wishes Moon. You'll be fine. We have another World Series, to enjoy. And hopefully more.

[jacksonianmarch]

Feel better

[S5Dewey]

Get well and get back to us as a more healthy Moon. We'll be thinking of you.

[oldtimer]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

Sorry to hear you have been ill. If you have a large hernia, you will probably need surgery. Best of luck with that.

[notin]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

I had double hernia surgery a few years ago. It’s a very routine and simple operation followed by a relaxing recovery period...

[kenmeister]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

My prayers & thoughts are with you that’s quite a scare.

[Dojji]

All the best Moon. you're one of the good guys around here.

[Slasher9]

I haven't posted for a while as I am in the hospital. I thought I was going to die. I had extreme stomach pains that turned out to be a large hernia. They also discovered I had diverticulitis (no jokes please). I'm better now with the help of some morphine and antibiotics. Hopefully, I will be released tomorrow and the consult with the hernia surgeon will say I do not need surgery.

 

 

godspeed sir.

glad to hear you are on the road to recovery.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for all the kind words.

 

I'm still waiting for the surgeon consult.

 

Maybe, I literally busted a gut screaming when the Sox won it all!