A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Harper’s UZR/150 in RF was identical to Martinez’ in 2017. I am wondering if Harper was afraid to really go for it in his contract year. He was clearly pressing. I wonder if Boras was in his ear about not getting hurt

[OH FOY]

2 stats I liked about Harper this year. .293 RISP, and .373 BA, with 2 Outs and RISP. Had a better 2nd half.

Manny this year. .331 with RISP, and .298 with 2 Outs and RISP, not bad either.

Here's the list of 2 Out RBI's this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/two-out-rbis

Like this list too, Runners left on Base in Scoring position.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/runners-left-in-scoring-position

Edited November 11, 2018 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

lol - I normally agree with you about most things but have to tell you that if DD was taking much direction from talksox posters it might turn me green and not with envy. I know that for sure they don't need any advice from me but I have just a limited amount of ego.

 

Ahhhh...yeah... sometimes my offbeat sense of humor doesn't carry well on line.

[Bellhorn04]

2 stats I liked about Harper this year. .293 RISP, and .373 BA, with 2 Outs and RISP. Had a better 2nd half.

Manny this year. .331 with RISP, and .298 with 2 Outs and RISP, not bad either.

Here's the list of 2 Out RBI's this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/two-out-rbis

Like this list too, Runners left on Base in Scoring position.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/runners-left-in-scoring-position

 

Statmeisters call these non-repeatable skills (can't do it every year). What do their 2017 or career numbers in the same situations look like?

[moonslav59]

Just think, if we sign Harper, the JBJ trade thread will spring back to life!

 

Please, God, NO!

[sk7326]

Here is the thing with Harper - on the surface he had a not great walk year ... but it was good. (135 RC+). The lower war was from a bad defensive year. Now I would not sign him because the Red Sox have plenty of options in the outfield. But I expect a deal to be crazy. You just don't get 26 year olds getting to UFA status that often.

 

The Nats have real strong alternatives - which is amazing when you think of it.

[sk7326]

2 stats I liked about Harper this year. .293 RISP, and .373 BA, with 2 Outs and RISP. Had a better 2nd half.

Manny this year. .331 with RISP, and .298 with 2 Outs and RISP, not bad either.

Here's the list of 2 Out RBI's this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/two-out-rbis

Like this list too, Runners left on Base in Scoring position.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/runners-left-in-scoring-position

 

One issue with runners left on base ...

 

AS A TEAM - who had the fewest baserunners left on base per game ... Baltimore

 

The Dodgers were 5th, Cleveland 6th, Atlanta 7th, Boston 8th

 

The teams that leave a lot of baserunners - generate a lot of baserunners. I mean last year - where we lamented the Red Sox inability to produce runs, the Red Sox were still 5th in the ML in RISP batting average.

[cp176]

Ahhhh...yeah... sometimes my offbeat sense of humor doesn't carry well on line.

 

Nor does mine!!!

 

Sadly though and in all honesty it does sound to me that there are people here who pretty much think that they are right when it comes to debating all things Red Sox.

[OH FOY]

Statmeisters call these non-repeatable skills (can't do it every year). What do their 2017 or career numbers in the same situations look like?

 

You can check, just click on 2017. Mike Trout repeats almost every year 2015 on 2016 a little off 12th that year, with Runners left on with 2 Outs. So it is repeatable to good players.

Edited November 11, 2018 by OH FOY!

[sk7326]

You can check, just click on 2017.

 

It's not a definitively separable skill from "hitting".

[Bellhorn04]

You can check, just click on 2017. Mike Trout repeats almost every year 2015 on 2016 a little off 12th that year, with Runners left on with 2 Outs. So it is repeatable to good players.

 

OK here goes

 

Bryce Harper OPS

 

2018

Overall 889

2 outs RISP 1234

Late & close 733

 

2017

Overall 1008

2 outs RISP 1159

Late & close 973

 

Career

Overall 900

2 outs RISP 858

Late & close 781

[Kimmi]

So in other words, you're the New York Mets. Good to know.

 

No, I'm the Boston Red Sox, but only with a strong farm system.

[Kimmi]

What could it hurt? We're really not spending that much at the position. Mid-season? If he helps out as part of a more important trade then you'd still have him for that. There's always a demand for catching talent because the position is so hard on the body.

 

I like the idea of having a 3rd catcher who can play other positions on the roster. That said, if Cora is not willing to play Swihart more often than he did this past season, it's probably in the team's best interest to go ahead and trade him.

[Kimmi]

I'm in favor of bargains that have a pathway forward in player development.

 

While there are all sorts of salary caps and luxury taxes, expenditures in player development are an area not subject similar limitations.

 

Every year, there are a certain number of games (5-10?) lost to an absence of situational awareness. What if we were to focus on the opportunity these represented in the form of player training and development? What if, at every minor league level, we had coaches that developed skills in base running and stealing? What if we had coaches that taught nothing other than how to lay down a bunt or defend against a bunt? Specialists that could drill players in certain defensive situations? What would it be worth to never throw the ball into the dugout? To never miss a cutoff man?

 

This is of course already being done, but not nearly intensively as might be possible. And in terms of player salaries, it could be incredibly cheap in terms of bidding for players with better WAR / other stats.

 

Of course this is easier said than done -- but if you have JH money, why not leverage that advantage?

 

I do agree that in some cases, there is not enough emphasis on fundamentals. Bunting, for instance. While I am not a fan of the sac bunt, I do think that it's inexcusable that a major league hitter cannot lay down a bunt when needed.

 

Past that, I really don't know enough about what trainers and coaches focus on in the minor leagues. But I would think that they work quite a bit on those other things that you mentioned.

[Kimmi]

Lucchino was not purely a marketing guy.

 

He became kind of a convenient target to blame for signings like Crawford and Sandoval, it seems, even though we have no real evidence that this was the case.

 

Show me something, anything that supports this.

 

There's no hard evidence, of course. Only speculation.

 

That said, there are certain signings that just go so against the grain of Theo and Ben that I am convinced that they were strong armed into making certain deals. After Theo left Boston, I remember him specifically commenting on how one of the biggest difficulties in trying to build a roster here was that the priorities in building a team from the business aspect were very different from building a team to win. His implication was that there were certain moves that he was opposed to from a baseball standpoint.

[Kimmi]

Everyone liked to state Lucchino was not a baseball guy and knew nothing about the sport. But he certainly spent a huge chunk of his adult life around baseball front offices employed by MLB franchises (who did hire him for some reason besides being the front office scapegoat). Most likely he knew more about the sport than any of us, but a lot of people don't want to admit that for some reason...

 

I am not, in any way, trying to suggest the Lucchino does not know baseball, or that I know more about baseball than he does.

 

My only point is that I think his priorities were with making the big splash, or the sexy moves as he called them, as opposed to creating the most wins. Sometimes they might be one and the same, but too often they are not.

[Kimmi]

Sure, there's some truth in this. But I can't believe the truth is as simple as Lucchino being this dummy who somehow forced everyone else into these ill-advised moves.

 

Again, he's not a dummy. He had different priorities.

 

And while a players like Crawford or Pablo could certainly still help the team win, and I understood the baseball rationale behind those moves, I think that from a purely baseball side of things, better moves could have been made. They wouldn't have been as exciting, however, to the casual fans.

[Kimmi]

I completely agree on Mookie. I just think it's not prudent to give 10 year contracts.

 

I'd like to see the Sox 'go all out' again 2019 and I think they will.

 

We need to do a reset at some point. Would it make sense to explore the trade value of Mookie after 2019 season? Can we not garner a cost controlled young starting pitcher for Mookie?

 

2018 win was all about team effort. Had we solely depended on Betts and JD we would have been toast. It's better to have 25 solid major leaguers as opposed to say a Machado or Harper.

 

On this, you and I agree.

 

I think the Sox will take another real shot at it this year, then look to start resetting.

 

It actually would make some sense to explore trading Mookie after 2019, but honestly, I don't see it happening. Mostly because I think it would be too unpopular of a move.

[Kimmi]

IMO he regrets how what he said was interpreted rather than regretting saying it.

 

I've read it more than once and here's my take on it FWIW:

The game of baseball has been around for 100+ years and it's bigger than any player. If every player got their unconditional release before next season, none of them were re-signed, and the 2019 rosters were comprised of A, AA, & AAA players the game would still go on.

There have always been stars and there always will be but a star becomes a star by being better than his peers. Even if the stardom bar was lowered fans would still come and watch the games to see the game played and the players play because the game is the game.

 

James may be right or he might be wrong. We'll never know, but his position (If I've interpreted it correctly) is worthy of consideration.

 

That's just IMO. Yours may differ and that's fine.

 

I mostly agree with your interpretation.

 

I said in my first response to this topic that I think James was spot on with his overall point.

[moonslav59]

Sox By Age (Notice how few are past prime or significantly past prime)

(Age on opening day 2019)

 

Top 15 Players

 

35 Pedey (may not even play again)

 

34 Wright (at least most injuries are not arm-related)

 

33 Price (mechanics adjustment might add years to career)

33 Moreland (injuries seem to be taking their toll)

 

32 Nunez (hopefully gets his knee fixed)

 

31 Brasier (could have a major role next year)

31 B Holt (maybe has gotten his durably issues solved)

31 Martinez (second most games & PAs of his career in 2018)

 

30 Porcello (2019 last contract year)

30 C Sale (turns 30 just before season starts)

30 Velazquez (maybe his time to seriously increase his IP)

30 Hembree (has been very healthy)

30 Workman (needs to prove he belongs)

30 Thornburg (last contract year)

30 Leon (seems older)

30 Walden (maybe a wild card for 2019)

 

29 Barnes (may be given a chance to win closer role)

29 R Scott (was very promising before last year)

 

28 JBJ (came into his won with a very consistent last 4+ months)

 

27 Vazquez (may be our FT catcher next year)

27 Johnson (may be counted on for bigger role in '19)

27 A Maddox (showed promise in 2017- out injured 2018)

27 Cuevas (could be a bubble 40 man roster player)

 

26 Betts (amazing he's still so young)

26 Bogaerts (just really entering prime!)

26 Poyner (may fill a key role next year)

26 Swihart (trade bait)

26 Marco Hernandez (could be his last chance)

26 Shepherd (may be a trade or DFA candidate)

 

25 ERod (turns 26 in April)

25 S Travis (could be traded or DFA'd)

25 Lin (key utility AAA depth)

 

24 Benintendi (scary still pre-prime)

 

22 Devers (still a baby)

 

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

Cool.

 

Apparently I'm the only one here who doesn't have anything better to do on a Sunday afternoon.

[moonslav59]

A brief look at our Bull Pen:

 

Free Agents (or DFA'd) this winter: 142.1 IP total

62.1 Kimbrel 0.995 WHIP)

65.2 Kelly (1.355)

14.1 Smith (1.395)

 

61.2 Barnes (1.265) Can he be a closer? He was a very respectable set-up man this year. We may not want to mess that up.

 

33.2 Brasier (0.772) Maybe has the better profile to close but has so little ML experience, one wonders. I can't see us letting just Brasier and Barnes fight it out for thenex closer slot.

 

60.0 Hembree (1.333) This could be the year, he is given a more prominent role. He needs to prove he can do it.

 

41.1 Workman (1.210) I've always been a big Workman fan, but I feel like 2019 might be his last chance to show he can win and keep a key role in the pen.

 

22.1 Poyner (1.119) Showed some promise this year, but the sample size is rather small.

 

24.0 Thornburg (1.583) This guy was supposed to be a key pen force. The injury really messed that up, but maybe he can shine in his contract year.

 

6.2 R Scott (2.250) Maybe he can have a big bounce back season. He was pretty decent and consistent before 2018.

 

14.2 Walden (1.159) Kind of an unknown.

 

Lakins and Feltman both may give us some help from the farm.

 

Long Relief/Spot Start (numbers in relief only)

29.2 Wright(1.213) If we don't re-sign Eovaldi or another starter, one of these guys will fill a starting rotation role. My guess is Wright, if healthy, is top of the depth charts.

 

38.2 Johnson (1.397) Showed some promise this year and could step it up next year.

 

54.2 Velazquez (1.372) He looked real good at times, and maybe some hidden injury kept him on the bench for some stretches this year. I'm hopeful he can get near 90-100 IP this year.

 

I seriously doubt we don't add an arm or two to the pen, but if not, her might be how we make up for the 142 IP Kimbrel, Kelly & Smith gave us.

 

+30 Brasier (34>64)

+20 Poyner (22.1>42.1)

+20 Thornburg (24>44)

+10 Workman (41>51)

+40 R Scott (6.2>46.2)

+20 Walden (14.2>34.2)

[moonslav59]

Cool.

 

Apparently I'm the only one here who doesn't have anything better to do on a Sunday afternoon.

 

LOL, just enjoying watching the Pats lose while still thinking of the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Again, he's not a dummy. He had different priorities.

 

And while a players like Crawford or Pablo could certainly still help the team win, and I understood the baseball rationale behind those moves, I think that from a purely baseball side of things, better moves could have been made. They wouldn't have been as exciting, however, to the casual fans.

 

Just quibbling here, but it could be argued that the really sexy move before the 2011 season was trading for A-Gon. That was the one that got everyone excited because he represented the big power bat. And no one ever really questions that this was Theo's move.

 

I think the Crawford signing was more surprising than it was sexy. And Crawford was supposedly a much more complete player than A-Gon.

 

IMO the reason the Crawford signing gets picked on more than the A-Gon trade is simply that it was a more obvious bust.

[sk7326]

It's always good sense to add pitching - attrition being what it is. Bullpen arms, a high ceiling starter or two.

[moonslav59]

I know hometown discounts are largely a dream of fans who care about the budget, but I'm wondering how much this magical season will play in the minds of Eovaldi, Pearce and maybe others. The way the team treated Eovaldi after the extra inning loss was pretty unforgettable. The bonds this team had with each other might play into some of the choices our free agents will make.

 

I just read the SI article on our World Series win. Here are some notable quotes and paraphrasing I found:

 

Cora has 119 fotos on his office wall- one for each win we had this year.

 

Brock Holt agrees with me, when he said, "Now we deserve to be known as the greatest Red Sox team of all time, and if you want to put us with some of the best overall, we'll take that. This team is special."

 

After the 18 inning loss, Price was the first to meet Eovaldi near the dugout,but the entire team was there. Price hugged him hard and patted his chest and back. Cora was next. It seemed like "he was the one who hit the walk off homer!" The article says, "Price never left [Eovaldi's] side. He joined him in the training room...He sat next to him on the bus back to the ...hotel. The next day, he even took adjoining soaks with Eovaldi in the hot and cold tubs."

 

"Nobody has ever done anything like that for me," Eovaldi says. "He's a great teammate."

 

Although Cora apparently "abhors" team meeting, he called one right after the 18 inning loss vs the Dodgers. Holt said of the meeting, that it was a "big reason why we won the next two games...the whole group played for each other and would do anything to help the team." Cora said to the team, "Listen up! We just played one of the greatest games in World Series history. Red Sox. Dodger. Dodger Stadium. World Series. And, the way you competed is something all of us should be proud of. This is a great team. This is a great game, and you guyss proved it tonight. And Nathan..."

 

Cora went on to praise Eovalid, and when he was done, the whole clubhouse erupted into a standing ovation. "There were tears," Holt says. Porcello was one of the ones crying.Then, "every Sox player, coach and staff member lined up to take turns hugging Eovaldi- not one of those quick good game bro hugs. I'm talking about a minute each," Porcello says. "What Nathan did was the epitome of what our team is about...We just lost a World Series game in 18 innings, but after that [meeting], it didn't feel like a loss, It felt like we won."

 

"A short while later, as Cora unwound [in his office], he looked up to see a line outside his office. There stood Price, Porcello and Sale...They told him they were all ready to pitch the next game."

 

At 8:30 the next morning, Eovaldi told Cora, "I'm good to go tonight."

 

Porcello said after the game that during the last week of the regular season, Porcello, Moreland, Price and Kinsler, who had all been to the World Series before and lost, "made a vow over 3, 4, 5, 13 beers," Porcello says, "we'd do everything to win it all this year. I can't hold back the tears. I apologize. This is....beautiful!""

 

The article also mentions how DD thought Eovaldo could be our "Charlie Morton" in the playoffs, when we traded for him.

 

It mentions how Cora did not think HRam would do well when not playing everyday, and that is why he suggested we cut him, when we added Pedey to the 25 man roster. "people said it was about money," said Cora, "but this it was a baseball move."

 

The article mentions Cora's interview for the manager's job, and how management felt he "aced" the whole interview, except for the question on how he'd handle "reducing a star''s playing time. He dismissed the problem as "no problem at all." He would simply put the best team on the field. Apparently, upper management felt he was being naive. A team source later said, "Well, I guess he did ace the entire test."

 

There's much more to the article, but it really left me feeling very warm inside about this team. They are the best I've ever seen, and again, I think Cora is the best Sox manager of all time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Just quibbling here, but it could be argued that the really sexy move before the 2011 season was trading for A-Gon. That was the one that got everyone excited because he represented the big power bat. And no one ever really questions that this was Theo's move.

 

I think the Crawford signing was more surprising than it was sexy. And Crawford was supposedly a much more complete player than A-Gon.

 

IMO the reason the Crawford signing gets picked on more than the A-Gon trade is simply that it was a more obvious bust.

 

Probably some truth to this, but for me personally, I loved the AGon trade and extension and claimed he'd "hit 50 HRs for us." I hated the CC signing from before it even happened.

 

One of the good things about the AGon trade was that he allowed us to dump CC & Beckett.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably some truth to this, but for me personally, I loved the AGon trade and extension and claimed he'd "hit 50 HRs for us." I hated the CC signing from before it even happened.

 

One of the good things about the AGon trade was that he allowed us to dump CC & Beckett.

 

And the reports on the trade with LA indicate Lucchino was heavily involved in it.

 

http://www.espn.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8323305/boston-red-sox-los-angeles-dodgers-blockbuster-trade-anatomy

Edited November 11, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[OH FOY]

LOL, just enjoying watching the Pats lose while still thinking of the Sox.

 

You think the Sox will get to 8 World series in 17 years. Sox got to 4 in 14 years, Nope don't think so. Season not over for the Pats, anybody think that is a fool. Lot of Football left.

Edited November 11, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

You think the Sox will get to 8 World series in 17 years. Sox got to 4 in 14 years, Nope don't think so. Season not over for the Pats, anybody think that is a fool. Lot of Football left.

 

Where did I ever come close to saying I think the Pats won't win the Super Bowl?

 

I just said, I enjoy watching them lose.

 

I'm a Packer's fan.