And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Hitch]

One concerning thing about Machado is his numbers at Camden Yards and away from Camden Yards.

 

Career OPS at Camden .888

Career road OPS .761 - yuck

 

Xander career split:

 

home 835

away 709

 

 

I'd also love to know what his career numbers are at Fenway Park. He always seems to kill it there.

[moonslav59]

Xander career split:

 

home 835

away 709

 

Yuk!

 

(LOL)

[moonslav59]

I'd also love to know what his career numbers are at Fenway Park. He always seems to kill it there.

 

.791

[Bellhorn04]

Xander career split:

 

home 835

away 709

 

Yuk!

 

(LOL)

 

Good point.

 

2018

 

Home 967

Away 800

 

Still a huge split, but not one you'd complain about.

[Kimmi]

As far as Manny vs. Bogaerts - Manny may be the bigger talent, but I think I'd rather have Xander. Some of that's homerism, no doubt, but the guy's been with us since 2013, played on 2 championship teams, really hit the ball well this year.

 

I would rather have Bogaerts too. It may be partly homerism, but it's more that I don't like Machado.

[jacksonianmarch]

Machado is well above Bogey in terms of production. Sentimentality betrays you. That being said, there is no chance Machado ends up in Boston and a strong chance Bogey is here for one more year. Hence, your sentimentality will be gone

[Kimmi]

Machado is well above Bogey in terms of production. Sentimentality betrays you. That being said, there is no chance Machado ends up in Boston and a strong chance Bogey is here for one more year. Hence, your sentimentality will be gone

 

Machado is a better player, but he is also a punk. I'm good with Bogaerts.

[Larry Cook]

Machado is well above Bogey in terms of production. Sentimentality betrays you. That being said, there is no chance Machado ends up in Boston and a strong chance Bogey is here for one more year. Hence, your sentimentality will be gone

 

This could be true. Desperate Dave has said repeatedly that we can keep everybody.

[notin]

Machado is well above Bogey in terms of production. Sentimentality betrays you. That being said, there is no chance Machado ends up in Boston and a strong chance Bogey is here for one more year. Hence, your sentimentality will be gone

 

 

Thank you for that lesson in Team Objectivity...

[Station 13]

Same here.

 

And I really don't want Harper. Most overrated FA I can remember.

 

He's still has the pre-draft aura surrounding him.

[sk7326]

He's still has the pre-draft aura surrounding him.

 

18th in fWAR since 1940 for those players before their age 26 season. (to give you an idea, Mookie is 19th, Machado is 21st, Mike Trout is #1)

 

Of the 17 guys above him

 

11 are in the Hall of Fame

5 of the other 6 are named Pujols, A-Rod, Bonds, Trout and Andruw Jones. Those are 4 clear HoF likely guys and one who certainly has a worthy argument.

 

Guys of his and Machado's ilk just don't get to unrestricted free agency. The hype is warranted.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox have approached Bogaerts about an extension. Clearly, if the sox do re-sign him, they cannot announce it til after opening day for lux tax implications. Xander will be 27 for the entirety of the first season of his new deal, so I would expect a king's ransom for him. With Machado likely looking at close to $30 mil AAV, I think Bogaerts likely nabs a deal in the 6 yr $150 mil range. I would be shocked if the sox went that route as it would essentially mean the end of Sale and JDM in Boston

[moonslav59]

Sox have approached Bogaerts about an extension. Clearly, if the sox do re-sign him, they cannot announce it til after opening day for lux tax implications. Xander will be 27 for the entirety of the first season of his new deal, so I would expect a king's ransom for him. With Machado likely looking at close to $30 mil AAV, I think Bogaerts likely nabs a deal in the 6 yr $150 mil range. I would be shocked if the sox went that route as it would essentially mean the end of Sale and JDM in Boston

 

I'm more worried about losing Betts by any further signings.

[Kimmi]

Sox have approached Bogaerts about an extension. Clearly, if the sox do re-sign him, they cannot announce it til after opening day for lux tax implications. Xander will be 27 for the entirety of the first season of his new deal, so I would expect a king's ransom for him. With Machado likely looking at close to $30 mil AAV, I think Bogaerts likely nabs a deal in the 6 yr $150 mil range. I would be shocked if the sox went that route as it would essentially mean the end of Sale and JDM in Boston

 

I'm not sure that we want to keep Sale and JDM in Boston. Sale's extension would almost certainly be for too many years. JDM is not worth keeping if that means having to give him more years than the original contract guaranteed him.

 

I would rather have Bogaerts @ 6 yr $150 mil.

[jacksonianmarch]

The biggest question there is what’s the direction? If they re-sign Bogey and let Sale, JDM and Porcelli go, they’re not gonna be competitive

[notin]

The biggest question there is what’s the direction? If they re-sign Bogey and let Sale, JDM and Porcelli go, they’re not gonna be competitive

 

 

The Sox have less than $70mill guaranteed on the books for 2020. They do have up to 10 arbitration cases, some of which will be very costly, and some of which will not.

 

They can make other moves, you know...

[jacksonianmarch]

Medicals $15 mil

Price $31 mil

Eovaldi $17 mil

Pedroia $13.75mil

Vazquez $4.3 mil

 

That’s $78 mil or so

Sign Bogey at $25 AAV

Betts final arb at $28 mil

Now you’re at $131 mil

 

Bradley final arb year $11 mil

Beni’s first arb year $5 mil

Erod’s Second arb year $7 mil

Barnes second arb year (if closer) $5 mil

Now you’re at $159 mil

 

The limit for first penalty is $208 mil in 2020. If you’re gonna reset, you’ll need to replace Sale, Porcello, Holt, JDM, 1B and probably 2B for $49 mil.

[notin]

Medicals $15 mil

Price $31 mil

Eovaldi $17 mil

Pedroia $13.75mil

Vazquez $4.3 mil

 

That’s $78 mil or so

Sign Bogey at $25 AAV

Betts final arb at $28 mil

Now you’re at $131 mil

 

Bradley final arb year $11 mil

Beni’s first arb year $5 mil

Erod’s Second arb year $7 mil

Barnes second arb year (if closer) $5 mil

Now you’re at $159 mil

 

The limit for first penalty is $208 mil in 2020. If you’re gonna reset, you’ll need to replace Sale, Porcello, Holt, JDM, 1B and probably 2B for $49 mil.

 

 

So Bogaerts will top Machado’s offers?

 

 

It is intersting that all Sox players will command well beyond market dollars to resign, but the new CBA will benefit the Yankees for retaining Torres, Severino and Andujar.

 

Which side do you think the current CBA favors?

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t believe Machado’s final contract will be at $25 mil AAV. I bet the final deal will be around $28-$30 mil.

[notin]

I don’t believe Machado’s final contract will be at $25 mil AAV. I bet the final deal will be around $28-$30 mil.

 

 

Has anyone topped the rumored $25mi yet? Let’s see him get offer at least $26mill before we assume he gets $30...

[moonslav59]

The biggest question there is what’s the direction? If they re-sign Bogey and let Sale, JDM and Porcelli go, they’re not gonna be competitive

 

What? Like there will be no money left over after signing Bogey and letting Sale, JD & Porcello go?

 

[moonslav59]

So Bogaerts will top Machado’s offers?

 

 

It is intersting that all Sox players will command well beyond market dollars to resign, but the new CBA will benefit the Yankees for retaining Torres, Severino and Andujar.

 

Which side do you think the current CBA favors?

 

Too funny, our players suck when compared to the Yankees, but they will get top FA dollars because they are so great!

[jacksonianmarch]

Never said your guys sucked. Man you like to make hyperbole

[moonslav59]

Never said your guys sucked. Man you like to make hyperbole

 

Well, we are worse than the Yanks but should be paid more. Is that accurate?

[jacksonianmarch]

So Bogaerts will top Machado’s offers?

 

 

It is intersting that all Sox players will command well beyond market dollars to resign, but the new CBA will benefit the Yankees for retaining Torres, Severino and Andujar.

 

Which side do you think the current CBA favors?

 

The CBA right now favors the small market teams. Right now the players are feeling the crunch more than before. You’ve got a savvy group of billionaires who found a way to make their businesses more marketable and their revenue streams rise. With the new lux tax implications, you have teams pocketing record profits by effectively seeing a huge benefit to resetting or staying under the final hurdle. You’re seeing benefits given to teams who forcibly suppress their best talent for an extra month to hold onto control for an extra year. Then there’s the lux tax. The only team so far to cross the final hurdle is now deserted of minor league talent and staring a ten spot drop in the first round in the face while also seeing a 100 spot drop in a comp pick for their all star closer due to being over the first hurdle. All the while, your most profitable team drops below the first limit for the first time since the lux tax was initiated to avoid a 50% tax on their overages while dropping their salary to revenue percentage below 30%. And all of this while seeing an entire market fall after 2017 and two of the brightest stars in the sport hitting FA at 26 yrs old and are still unsigned. The players are going to strike. I can almost guarantee it. Trickle down economics may or may not work for countries, but dragging up economics works for sporting teams. The huge contracts drag up value in arbitration and drag up value for the next few tiers of players. The stagnation at the top has seen the average salary drop for the first time in 2 decades and it doesn’t look to be changing any time soon.

 

The issue with the CBA is all about timing. The Sox are running into their issues with the lux cap this year. By next year, the issues will effectively rip apart the squad or incur such penalties that even Henry will struggle to allow. The following year, Betts hits FA a year before the expiration of the CBA. This is why the Yanks will see the benefit of the new CBA in keeping their team intact. When we will need to look into extending Sanchez, Judge, Severino and start paying arb values that matter to Andujar and Torres, the new CBA will be in effect

[moonslav59]

The CBA right now favors the small market teams. Right now the players are feeling the crunch more than before. You’ve got a savvy group of billionaires who found a way to make their businesses more marketable and their revenue streams rise. With the new lux tax implications, you have teams pocketing record profits by effectively seeing a huge benefit to resetting or staying under the final hurdle. You’re seeing benefits given to teams who forcibly suppress their best talent for an extra month to hold onto control for an extra year. Then there’s the lux tax. The only team so far to cross the final hurdle is now deserted of minor league talent and staring a ten spot drop in the first round in the face while also seeing a 100 spot drop in a comp pick for their all star closer due to being over the first hurdle. All the while, your most profitable team drops below the first limit for the first time since the lux tax was initiated to avoid a 50% tax on their overages while dropping their salary to revenue percentage below 30%. And all of this while seeing an entire market fall after 2017 and two of the brightest stars in the sport hitting FA at 26 yrs old and are still unsigned. The players are going to strike. I can almost guarantee it. Trickle down economics may or may not work for countries, but dragging up economics works for sporting teams. The huge contracts drag up value in arbitration and drag up value for the next few tiers of players. The stagnation at the top has seen the average salary drop for the first time in 2 decades and it doesn’t look to be changing any time soon.

 

The issue with the CBA is all about timing. The Sox are running into their issues with the lux cap this year. By next year, the issues will effectively rip apart the squad or incur such penalties that even Henry will struggle to allow. The following year, Betts hits FA a year before the expiration of the CBA. This is why the Yanks will see the benefit of the new CBA in keeping their team intact. When we will need to look into extending Sanchez, Judge, Severino and start paying arb values that matter to Andujar and Torres, the new CBA will be in effect

 

A fair assessment, but what makes you think the new CBA will make it easier for big spending teams?

[Kimmi]

The biggest question there is what’s the direction? If they re-sign Bogey and let Sale, JDM and Porcelli go, they’re not gonna be competitive

 

No clue what the direction is, I'm just saying I'd rather extend Bogaerts at the price that you mentioned than either Sale or JDM.

 

Remember that sadly, I, like you, believe the cliff is coming. So I really don't know what Dombrowski and Henry have in store for us after this year.

[notin]

A fair assessment, but what makes you think the new CBA will make it easier for big spending teams?

 

 

Not big spending teams. Just the Yankees. I believe the new CBA will be very specific in this regard.

 

Apparently any adjustment to the luxury tax threshold won’t be applied to Betts or Bogaerts if they get new deals in Boston. That benefit is solely reserved for Judge...

[sk7326]

A fair assessment, but what makes you think the new CBA will make it easier for big spending teams?

 

I fully expect the new CBA will feature mechanisms that guarantee a minimum share of revenue leaguewide to go to players. Right now, if I read correctly, baseball spends the lowest amount of their revenue on players (something like 42%). I mean each team got $50M from the new digital rights deal, and yet only TAMPA BAY has been genuinely aggressive this offseason trying to jump to the next level.

 

I also think if the league is going to keep a punitive luxury tax - then the players will push for eliminating salary arbitration (possibly accepting an actual salary cap depending on how it looks). Replace arbitration with a year of restricted free agency (offer sheets). It will be good for everybody in a lot of ways - the winter meetings being such a dud is bad for baseball.

[dgalehouse]

The owners will try to work out a somewhat complicated deal which they can manipulate . It has worked before .