And the off season begins (2018-19)

[mvp 78]

This offseason has been boring as s***.

[harmony]

This offseason has been boring as s***.

You’re not a Seattle Mariner fan.

 

Not that you want to be.😁

[Bellhorn04]

Herrera signs with White Sox 2/18. Another reliever off the board.

[kenmeister]

Moonslav's Cody Allen theory becomes more likely...

[moonslav59]

Moonslav's Cody Allen theory becomes more likely...

 

He's not the guy I really want, but we can probably afford him without opening another hole by trading salary to make room for CK or Ottavino.

 

He has a pretty bad year last year, but he was still over 10.5 K per 9.

 

His BB/9 went from 2.8 to 4.4. That's what killed him more than anything else. (HR/9 went from o.3> 1.1> 1.2> 1.5)

 

He's a big question mark, but I think if we get him and maybe traded for someone like him, too, we should be fine. Keep some buffer for a mid summer deal, if needed.

 

Here's his velocity charts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=12183&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

Edited January 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Herrera signs with White Sox 2/18. Another reliever off the board.

 

 

Herrera was someone that even as late as June looked like a great idea. But he fell completely apart. I wouldn’t have minded if the Sox got him, unless he was their only bullpen acquisition...

[moonslav59]

It's so hard projecting relief pitcher future production.

 

Even with pretty steady guys like CK and Britton.

 

Look what the RP'ers did with COL last year.Look at Andrew Miller. Other recent signings (in hindsight):

 

How many look good now?

 

W Davis $52M/3

M Minor $28M/3

J McGee $27M/3

B Shaw $27M/3

B Morrow $21M/2

T Hunter $18M/2

J Nicasio $17M/2

A Reed $17M/2

P Neshek $16M/2

J Smith $15M/2

G Holland $14M/1

Cishek $13M/2

Gregerson $11M/2

 

2017

Chapman $86M/5

Jansen $80M/5

Melancon $62M/4

B Cecil $31M/4

M Dunn $19M/3

Ziegler $16M/2

Tazaqwa $12M/2

T Wood $12M/2

 

2016

D O'Day $31M/4 --- OUCH!

M Estrada $26M/2

J Soria $25M/2

R Madson $22M/3

T Sipp $18M/3

S Kelley $15M/3

Clippard $13M/2

Bastardo $12M/2

C Young $12M/2

M Lowe $11M/2

J Axford $10M/2

J Motte $10M/2

 

Kind of a scary list.

[Kimmi]

I disagree.

 

Eovaldi had had enough issues in the past that would have made me hesitant about guaranteeing $68mill to a pitcher whose only thrown 235 IP in the last 3 years combined. I could see going after Keuchel over a closer if starter was the goal. But I think spending $17mill AAV on Eovaldi when for $20mill you can have Kelly and Miller seemed a little wishful.

 

Pearce isa WS hero, so it did make bringing him back palatable. But if the budget was the issue, why not let Chavis handle the RHH 1b role?

 

I'm not saying that I like Eovaldi's contract. Far from it. However, the last place that I want to spend big on is the BP. Re-signing Eovaldi or acquiring another similar starter was a higher priority than retaining Kimbrel or a similar reliever.

 

I really don't think the budget is as stringent an issue as for this year as it is for future years. What is keeping the Sox from signing relievers is not the amount, but the length of the contract. Pearce's contract has no bearing on the budget for relievers because it was for only one year.

[Kimmi]

The season hasn't started yet, but DD is running out of options on the market. If the sox go into the season with Brasier-Barnes as the SU-CL combo, then your GM is taking a huge risk. It's like having a really expensive car with a great mechanic, driver and parts guy who perpetually hands the car off to the 16 yr old valet at the end of the run to park

 

Not going to happen.

[Kimmi]

If you have to have a weak area ( I don't think that is a given) , I don't want it to be the bullpen. And , assuming the Yankees get Machado, what exactly is their weak area ?

 

Methinks you worry too much about the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

IMO if they pick up Machado their weak area might be the clubhouse... but what do I know?

 

!!!

[cp176]

I'm telling you (again) Kimbrel is coming back home.

[moonslav59]

I'm telling you (again) Kimbrel is coming back home.

 

Gut feeling or do you have some clues to provide us?

[notin]

Gut feeling or do you have some clues to provide us?

 

Apparently the Sox are ubiquitous favorites to land him.

 

Atlanta is the only other team getting mention. I see fits on the Cubs and Angels, but the Cubs appear to be a complete spending unknown and the Angels were linked to Britton, but as far as anyone can tell, no offer was actually made...

[moonslav59]

Apparently the Sox are ubiquitous favorites to land him.

 

Atlanta is the only other team getting mention. I see fits on the Cubs and Angels, but the Cubs appear to be a complete spending unknown and the Angels were linked to Britton, but as far as anyone can tell, no offer was actually made...

 

Apparently, the Angels were runner ups to Britton, so they must be willing to spend big. The Cubs or Braves might step up, but yes, the Sox seem to be the team with the biggest need at closer.

 

It comes down to the money.

[jacksonianmarch]

Apparently, the Angels were runner ups to Britton, so they must be willing to spend big. The Cubs or Braves might step up, but yes, the Sox seem to be the team with the biggest need at closer.

 

It comes down to the money.

 

I think Britton saw the ability to win and potentially be the Yankees closer by 2020 plus the money and jumped. The Angels will need to blow away a team like Boston or NY to grab someone.

[moonslav59]

I think Britton saw the ability to win and potentially be the Yankees closer by 2020 plus the money and jumped. The Angels will need to blow away a team like Boston or NY to grab someone.

 

Not if the Sox are not offering big money.

 

If CK is better than Britton, one would think the Angels might offer a little more than their Britton offer, and if the Sox refuse to go higher, they may get him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Like I said, the Angels need to significantly overcommit to beat out the sox.

[moonslav59]

Like I said, the Angels need to significantly overcommit to beat out the sox.

 

You are assuming the Sox are offering large and long.

 

Have we even made an offer?

 

I see it like this: if nobody offers more than the minimum the Sox are willing to offer CK, then he probably signs with us.

 

He may even agree to a 1 year mega deal to try and reset his value, but that would be highly risky.

Edited January 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I am going to assume the sox take a page out of the Boras book and offer a "swellopt". 3 year guarantee with an opt in after year 2 for a 2-3 year deal. If the sox opt out, Kimbrel can continue on for one more year or opt out and become a FA

[moonslav59]

I am going to assume the sox take a page out of the Boras book and offer a "swellopt". 3 year guarantee with an opt in after year 2 for a 2-3 year deal. If the sox opt out, Kimbrel can continue on for one more year or opt out and become a FA

 

If we truly want to reset after 2019 or less likely after 2020, signing CK really hurts the rebuilding process, unless his deal is structured to make him tradeable after 2019, as in bid salary in 2019, then drops off quickly..

[jacksonianmarch]

You cannot reset after 2019 without letting all of your FA's walk

[moonslav59]

You cannot reset after 2019 without letting all of your FA's walk

 

With Kimbrel, yes. Without, we lose 2 of the big 3 for sure: Sale, Bogey or Porcello.

 

Remember, we lose Pablo's $19M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M, and Nunez/Holt/Thornburg's $10M+.

[Larry Cook]

With Kimbrel, yes. Without, we lose 2 of the big 3 for sure: Sale, Bogey or Porcello.

 

Remember, we lose Pablo's $19M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M, and Nunez/Holt/Thornburg's $10M+.

 

Very true!

 

Too bad we could not develop at least one home grown starter!

[moonslav59]

Very true!

 

Too bad we could not develop at least one home grown starter!

 

Maybe we get one from Hernandez, Groome, Shawaryb, Mata or Houck.

[mvp 78]

Maybe we get one from Hernandez, Groome, Shawaryb, Mata or Houck.

 

Hernandez - relief

Groome - doesn't make the majors

Shawaryn - AAAA reliever/spot starter

Mata - doesn't make the majors

Houck - relief

[notin]

Groome - doesn't make the majors

Mata - doesn't make the majors

 

 

This year? Or ever?

[mvp 78]

This year? Or ever?

 

Never ever. I think Groome will have too many health problems and will probably retire in the next 5 years.

 

I think Mata is just going to hit a ceiling in the upper minors. I know he's young, but a 1.6 WHIP in A ball isn't great. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff and can't strike anyone out. Unless you have Maddux like control or a pitch that induces lots of ground balls, it's hard to walk that tight rope. It also doesn't help that he started to walk about as many people as he struck out last year.

[notin]

Never ever. I think Groome will have too many health problems and will probably retire in the next 5 years.

 

 

If that happens - worse draft pick, Jay Groome or Trey Ball?

[mvp 78]

If that happens - worse draft pick, Jay Groome or Trey Ball?

 

Trey Ball. Sox couldn't have foreseen Groome's injuries.

 

The 2013 draft had some really great prospects taken right after Ball.

 

Groome was also taken 5 picks later than Ball was.