And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

Brach also saw his BB rate spike, his K rate drop and a velocity drop.

 

 

The velocity drops by both Allen and Brach last season were less than the velocity drop experienced by Britton...

[Station 13]

Kimbrel market is not robust as he expected it to. He'll drop enough for Dombrowski to sign. Anywhere from 60-70M is reasonable, much less than the $100M he was seeking.

[Larry Cook]

Kimbrel market is not robust as he expected it to. He'll drop enough for Dombrowski to sign. Anywhere from 60-70M is reasonable, much less than the $100M he was seeking.

 

I am extremely good with us bringing back kimbrel. We also need someone to replace Kelly, preferably a lefty and our bullpen will be good to go!

[Kimmi]

Well, a lot of these blogs are written by people no more informed than us...

 

Granted, but even the beat writers who have access to their 'unnamed sources' don't really now what's going on.

[Kimmi]

Allen saw a velocity drop, a K rate drop, a BB rate rise and a HR rate skyrocket in a bad 2018. If you want to hitch your wagon to him, go for it. He has always been a big HR rate guy. I would love that for you

 

Brach also saw his BB rate spike, his K rate drop and a velocity drop.

 

Hmm, I wonder what your scouting report for these two would sound like if the Yankees had signed them.

 

Don't worry about the Red Sox. We'll be fine.

[Kimmi]

Kimbrel market is not robust as he expected it to. He'll drop enough for Dombrowski to sign. Anywhere from 60-70M is reasonable, much less than the $100M he was seeking.

 

I would not sign Kimbrel for $60 mil. Get down to 3yrs/$15 mil, then we can talk. Even that, IMO, is too high, but I don't think there's any way we can get Kimbrel for 2 years or for less money.

 

Britton got a 3 year deal with an opt out after the 2nd year. That might work.

[Kimmi]

I am extremely good with us bringing back kimbrel. We also need someone to replace Kelly, preferably a lefty and our bullpen will be good to go!

 

I am good with bringing back Kimbrel at the right price, but I'm also just as good going with a lesser known commodity.

[Northern Star]

Hmm, I wonder what your scouting report for these two would sound like if the Yankees had signed them.

 

[Northern Star]

Where does Kimbrel think his worth to a team is 9 figures?

[Bellhorn04]

Where does Kimbrel think his worth to a team is 9 figures?

 

Kimbrel thought he could score a higher deal than Chapman's 86 million because his career numbers are better and his agent told him so.

 

Craig did not have a great contract year and he had a frightening postseason, and his value was hurt as a result. Probably much more than he ever imagined.

[sk7326]

The velocity drops by both Allen and Brach last season were less than the velocity drop experienced by Britton...

 

Britton was getting his usual obscene groundball rate after he signed with NYY. He is more immune to a modest velocity drop.

[dgalehouse]

Britton is one of the best . I would love to have him on the Red Sox .

[Larry Cook]

I am good with bringing back Kimbrel at the right price, but I'm also just as good going with a lesser known commodity.

 

We have an excellent chance to repeat, if we stay healthy, so why cheap out on the bullpen?

[moonslav59]

We have an excellent chance to repeat, if we stay healthy, so why cheap out on the bullpen?

 

Because we chose to spend more elsewhere.

 

We chose to upgrade other areas and have spent way more than any other team in MLB to get where we were last year and are this year.

 

Just assuming we will or should just spend more to upgrade our last area of need may not be realistic within the boundaries Henry sets for DD on spending limits- not just for this year, but maybe to plan for a reset after 2019 or 2020.

[dgalehouse]

Because we chose to spend more elsewhere.

 

We chose to upgrade other areas and have spent way more than any other team in MLB to get where we were last year and are this year.

 

Just assuming we will or should just spend more to upgrade our last area of need may not be realistic within the boundaries Henry sets for DD on spending limits- not just for this year, but maybe to plan for a reset after 2019 or 2020.

 

The thing is ; some of us think the bullpen is not the place to economize. Much too important.

[moonslav59]

The thing is ; some of us think the bullpen is not the place to economize. Much too important.

 

I get that, and I don't think DD is done. I do think he's done spending large and long as the reset looms.

 

I realize nobody here knows what budget restrictions DD has for this year and beyond, but if we go on the assumption that he can't go over $40M this year and must reset after 2019 or 2020, then his hands are tied.

 

If the pen is viewed as more important than our OF (trade JBJ), or IF (trade Bogey) or our rotation (trade Porcello), then maybe we'll see something like this happen.

 

While I value the pen, I value the players I listed above more. If we could trade Nunez & Moreland to free up enough space for Ottavino, I'd do it, but I'm not sure it's possible.

 

More likely, we make a modest trade for a low cost RP'er (Chavis/Swihart/Shawaryn) and then sign the RP'er left over after free agency picks over the best (maybe Cody Allen or B Brach). I realize that may not be enough to placate those who value the pen more than I do or more than other positions, but the cat is out of the bag. We can't undo past spending, unless we trade salary and open a new gap.

 

[notin]

The thing is ; some of us think the bullpen is not the place to economize. Much too important.

.

 

Yeah but who cares what we think anyway?

 

What might be important is Dombrowski might be thinking the same way. And he’s not getting the idea from us...

[Northern Star]

Has there been advanced statistical analysis of the importance of the bullpen vs starting pitching? So that we could get a guide of how much attention/money to spend on it in an ideal scenario.

[dgalehouse]

I get that, and I don't think DD is done. I do think he's done spending large and long as the reset looms.

 

I realize nobody here knows what budget restrictions DD has for this year and beyond, but if we go on the assumption that he can't go over $40M this year and must reset after 2019 or 2020, then his hands are tied.

 

If the pen is viewed as more important than our OF (trade JBJ), or IF (trade Bogey) or our rotation (trade Porcello), then maybe we'll see something like this happen.

 

While I value the pen, I value the players I listed above more. If we could trade Nunez & Moreland to free up enough space for Ottavino, I'd do it, but I'm not sure it's possible.

 

More likely, we make a modest trade for a low cost RP'er (Chavis/Swihart/Shawaryn) and then sign the RP'er left over after free agency picks over the best (maybe Cody Allen or B Brach). I realize that may not be enough to placate those who value the pen more than I do or more than other positions, but the cat is out of the bag. We can't undo past spending, unless we trade salary and open a new gap.

 

 

I can't accept the idea that we have to trade our center fielder , shortstop or starting pitcher to fix the bullpen . This is a big time organization .

[Kimmi]

We have an excellent chance to repeat, if we stay healthy, so why cheap out on the bullpen?

 

Once again, cheaping out to me does not mean mediocrity.

 

It's Dombrowski's job to find us a great closer that will not handcuff us financially.

[notin]

I can't accept the idea that we have to trade our center fielder , shortstop or starting pitcher to fix the bullpen . This is a big time organization .

 

Well so far, that’s where they are. Big time or not, it’s possible being one of the most expensive teams in history isn’t sitting well with some people.

 

And they only have to trade one to take on an expensive closer. But the Chavis/Dalbec/Hernandez crowd should be significant starting point to get a cheap one...

Edited January 6, 2019 by notin

[Kimmi]

I get that, and I don't think DD is done. I do think he's done spending large and long as the reset looms.

 

I realize nobody here knows what budget restrictions DD has for this year and beyond, but if we go on the assumption that he can't go over $40M this year and must reset after 2019 or 2020, then his hands are tied.

 

If the pen is viewed as more important than our OF (trade JBJ), or IF (trade Bogey) or our rotation (trade Porcello), then maybe we'll see something like this happen.

 

While I value the pen, I value the players I listed above more. If we could trade Nunez & Moreland to free up enough space for Ottavino, I'd do it, but I'm not sure it's possible.

 

More likely, we make a modest trade for a low cost RP'er (Chavis/Swihart/Shawaryn) and then sign the RP'er left over after free agency picks over the best (maybe Cody Allen or B Brach). I realize that may not be enough to placate those who value the pen more than I do or more than other positions, but the cat is out of the bag. We can't undo past spending, unless we trade salary and open a new gap.

 

 

The pen is absolutely an important part of a championship team. But let's be honest here. Relievers are also the most easily replaceable players on the team.

 

If I have to 'skimp' somewhere, I'm skimping on the bullpen. And just to be clear once again, skimping does not mean the pen has to stink.

[notin]

The pen is absolutely an important part of a championship team. But let's be honest here. Relievers are also the most easily replaceable players on the team.

 

If I have to 'skimp' somewhere, I'm skimping on the bullpen. And just to be clear once again, skimping does not mean the pen has to stink.

 

I might have looked into the bullpen before signing Pearce and Eovaldi...

[Kimmi]

I might have looked into the bullpen before signing Pearce and Eovaldi...

 

Pearce, maybe. But when I think about how much lower Moreland's numbers are against LHP, then no.

 

Eovaldi, definitely not. He was much more a priority than signing anyone for the pen.

[dgalehouse]

The way the game is played today , the bullpen is probably more important than it has ever been .

[notin]

Pearce, maybe. But when I think about how much lower Moreland's numbers are against LHP, then no.

 

Eovaldi, definitely not. He was much more a priority than signing anyone for the pen.

 

 

I disagree.

 

Eovaldi had had enough issues in the past that would have made me hesitant about guaranteeing $68mill to a pitcher whose only thrown 235 IP in the last 3 years combined. I could see going after Keuchel over a closer if starter was the goal. But I think spending $17mill AAV on Eovaldi when for $20mill you can have Kelly and Miller seemed a little wishful.

 

Pearce isa WS hero, so it did make bringing him back palatable. But if the budget was the issue, why not let Chavis handle the RHH 1b role?

[moonslav59]

I can't accept the idea that we have to trade our center fielder , shortstop or starting pitcher to fix the bullpen . This is a big time organization .

 

So, there's no limit? We can go $40M over in consecutive years?

 

The Yanks and Dodgers are big time also, and they both reset their tax.

 

Do you think we will reset after 2019 or 2020?

[moonslav59]

We are on pace to way outspend the next highest spending teams in MLB from 2018-2019.

 

Despite all that, we have a weak area, as do all other teams.

 

I don't think we can just assume we'll keep throwing money at every position in need of an upgrade. GMs make these choices all the time, and maybe DD feels like we'll have a winner in 2019 without a glitzy closer.

[jacksonianmarch]

The season hasn't started yet, but DD is running out of options on the market. If the sox go into the season with Brasier-Barnes as the SU-CL combo, then your GM is taking a huge risk. It's like having a really expensive car with a great mechanic, driver and parts guy who perpetually hands the car off to the 16 yr old valet at the end of the run to park

[moonslav59]

The season hasn't started yet, but DD is running out of options on the market. If the sox go into the season with Brasier-Barnes as the SU-CL combo, then your GM is taking a huge risk. It's like having a really expensive car with a great mechanic, driver and parts guy who perpetually hands the car off to the 16 yr old valet at the end of the run to park

 

We have a great rotation.

 

We have a very good defense.

 

We run the bases very well.

 

We have a great offense with more players on the upside to prime than on the downside.

 

Our pen certainly has needs, and I think DD will add an arm or two, but it might not be a glitzy,costly one.

 

We may also address the need during the season.