ALDS rehash and ALCS assessment

[FredLynn]

My re-hash of the ALDS is the sox were better and Boone wasn't ready for the moment. The kids were not there yet and Stanton cowered in the bright lights. If you're gonna win a title, this is your year. We are going to be much better next year

 

Ummm....I remember that at the beginning of THIS year you claimed on this site that the Yankees were the prohibitive favorites to win the division. I am not going to look back and find your posts, but many of us responded with "lets play the games and see how it turns out". So when you say that your team will be "much better next year" I would simply respond with the same refrain: lets just play the games and see how it turns out. We were the better team all year this year, based on performance, and next year is a new year. We will see if the Yankees can compete with us.

[jacksonianmarch]

Fred, the financial shackles will come off. We will be adding top notch veteran talent to this squad. Enjoy the edge while it lasts

[mvp 78]

Fred, the financial shackles will come off. We will be adding top notch veteran talent to this squad. Enjoy the edge while it lasts

 

Back to back to back to back

[jacksonianmarch]

Back to back to back to back

 

You gave yourself an extra back. And are we talking playoff exits? That will come soon

[mvp 78]

You gave yourself an extra back. And are we talking playoff exits? That will come soon

 

Eye roll...

 

It's for next year's division title. Maybe the Rays will be a more formidable opponent next year than the Yankees have been lately.

[Nick]

You should be fundamentally better. We have rookies and second year players all over our roster. Think about it. Voit, Torres and Andujar are rookies. Judge and Sanchez are second year guys. Sevy is technically a third year player. On your side, the only first or second year players playing significant time are Devers and Beni.

 

Yankees are in better 'financial' position than the Sox in terms of luxury tax implications. Yankees only have one bad contract, that of Jacoby Ellsbury, $22M AAV for two more years. They have the cap space to acquire mutliple free agents, if they want. They have a deep and cost controlled young talent. But do keep in mind, sometimes young talent fizzles out.

 

Sox will need to thread the needle after 2019 in terms of not letting payroll get out of control and being selective about free agent signing of its own players. But as long as DD is getting 'value' from the players he signs, we'll be okay. Just no more Sandoval contracts please.

 

Pom is gone and I doubt we'll give $18-$20M four/five year deal to Kimbrel. Hanley's $22M comes off the books.

 

We really could do a MINI re-set AFTER we win the world series by 1) letting Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom contracts expire and 2) Hanley's $22M coming off the books. That amounts to about $48M plus we get a bump of $9M in artificial cap space. Cot has Sox at CB Payroll of $233M. Subtract $48M and we're at $185M before arbitration raises and having to replace basically Kimbrel/Kelly. 2019 CB threashold will be $208M, second and third threasholds at $228M and $248M. Looking at second penalty level of $228M, Sox has about $43M to cover arb raises and replace Kimbrel/Kelly/Pom. It's doable.

Edited October 10, 2018 by Nick

[Slasher9]

if we win the WS Henry will 100% reset the LT in 2019.

[OH FOY]

Kimbrel for me is now in limbo. Pressure keeps getting more amped up, lets see how he reacts, to even higher pressure. Looking at Sanchez Sac. Fly, that was a millimeter, for us from having a disaster. This guy scares me. Edited October 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Kimbrel for me is now in limbo. Pressure keeps getting more amped up, lets see how he reacts, to even higher pressure. Looking at Sanchez Sac. Fly, that was a millimeter, for us from having a disaster.

 

All the familiarity of the NYY against Kimbrel really limits his effectiveness. I think he'll be better against the Stros.

[Nick]

if we win the WS Henry will 100% reset the LT in 2019.

 

It can be easily done by not signing Kimbrel, Kelly and Pom (combined $26M), and trading away Porcello ($20.6M) and Moreland ($6.5M), With Hanley gone, that's total savings of $77M. That puts us at $156M, $52M below CB tax threashhold of $208M.

 

$52M to replace a starter and closer and covering what could be $20-25M in arbitration raises. Again, it's doable.

[OH FOY]

Kimbrel has a 3.65 ERA in 12 Post-Season games. Koji he is not, he better prove it to me, against a team that will test him, and pretty much healthy now. Limbo for me. Edited October 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

It can be easily done by not signing Kimbrel, Kelly and Pom (combined $26M), and trading away Porcello ($20.6M) and Moreland ($6.5M), With Hanley gone, that's total savings of $77M. That puts us at $156M, $52M below CB tax threashhold of $208M.

 

$52M to replace a starter and closer and covering what could be $20-25M in arbitration raises. Again, it's doable.

 

Trade Pedroia.

[mvp 78]

Kimbrel has a 3.65 ERA in 12 Post-Season games.

 

3 earned runs this season against the NYY. 2 earned runs in the other 10 games.

[moonslav59]

Yankees are in better 'financial' position than the Sox in terms of luxury tax implications. Yankees only have one bad contract, that of Jacoby Ellsbury, $22M AAV for two more years. They have the cap space to acquire mutliple free agents, if they want. They have a deep and cost controlled young talent. But do keep in mind, sometimes young talent fizzles out.

 

Sox will need to thread the needle after 2019 in terms of not letting payroll get out of control and being selective about free agent signing of its own players. But as long as DD is getting 'value' from the players he signs, we'll be okay. Just no more Sandoval contracts please.

 

Pom is gone and I doubt we'll give $18-$20M four/five year deal to Kimbrel. Hanley's $22M comes off the books.

 

We really could do a MINI re-set AFTER we win the world series by 1) letting Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom contracts expire and 2) Hanley's $22M coming off the books. That amounts to about $48M plus we get a bump of $9M in artificial cap space. Cot has Sox at CB Payroll of $233M. Subtract $48M and we're at $185M before arbitration raises and having to replace basically Kimbrel/Kelly. 2019 CB threashold will be $208M, second and third threasholds at $228M and $248M. Looking at second penalty level of $228M, Sox has about $43M to cover arb raises and replace Kimbrel/Kelly/Pom. It's doable.

 

The Yanks will have a ton of budget space to work with this year. They could even choose to go way over the $40M mark for a year or two. They lose a lot of dead weight and role player, but they are sitting pretty, money wise and young talent wise.

 

The Ellsbury contract hurts them for 2 more years, and then they have the $5M buyout in '21. His contract goes longer than Pablo's.

 

We lose HRam this year and Pablo after next year with $5M counting towards 2020.

 

Here's a look at arb projections by MLBTRs

 

+$8.2M Betts ($18.7M)

+$4.8M Bogey ($11.9M)

+$1.8M JBJ ($7.9M)

+$2.4M ERod ($4.8M)

+$1.2M Holt (3.4)

+$0.2M Thornburg 2.3

+$0.3M Leon 2.3

+$0.9M Barnes 1.5

+$0.8M Workman 1.4

+$0.3M Wright 1.4

+$0.6M Hembree 1.2

+$0.2M Smith 1.1

+$0.5M Swihart 1.1

 

This is about $20M in arb raises. The Sox often settle with their players before arb.

 

The Yanks have these projections:

 

Didi Gregorius – $12.4MM

Sonny Gray – $9.1MM

Dellin Betances – $6.4MM

Aaron Hicks – $6.2MM

Luis Severino – $5.1MM

Austin Romine – $2.0MM

Tommy Kahnle – $1.5MM

Greg Bird – $1.5MM

Ronald Torreyes – $900K

 

 

[moonslav59]

Trade Pedroia.

 

Nobody is taking his salary.

 

If he's all done, maybe he'll retire and help us like Dempster did, but I doubt it.

 

We might try to trade other salaries, like Porcello or whoever we think we can't keep out of Boegy & JBJ.

[oldtimer]

if we win the WS Henry will 100% reset the LT in 2019.

 

I look at it from the point of view of what are needs will be going forward, and we will have some as I see it for 2019.

 

1. I, like most here, am assuming that we will find Kimbrel's contract requirements to be above his value to the team and we will reluctantly have to let him go. So a big need (#1) will be to replace our closer and probably no one on the roster is capable of that.

 

2. Relief pitching with Kelly possibly gone will need to be bolstered. Evaluation of Smith and Thornburg will be needed and possibly we will need a couple of additional solid relievers. This can be done as we get into the season and assess our needs fully. Probably be our #4 need.

 

3. As far as starting pitching, we will have Sale, Porcello and Price for sure and will no doubt want to hang onto E-Rod. Wright's knee inflamation may be serious enough to make him a no go but medical evaluation will be needed. Eovaldi is looking like a starter if we can affort him. Having had two surgery's on him arm doesn't disqualify him in my book, provided a reasonable contract can be worked out. Possibly our #2 need.

 

4. We will need a second base backup for Pedey. He is aging and is trying to recover from an injury. I would look for a young and talented player who can play half the time and potentially be our second baseman going forward. How long will Pedey be able to play is the question, not how long does his contract run is the question to address.

 

5. I would look for a replacement for Leon. He is a very good defensive catcher but a .177 avg is well below league avg and we should have better on our roster. Keep Vaz and Swi and look for another. I would look at this as our #3 need.

 

6. We still should consider the CF position. Can we replace JBJ for the money he will expect with a good defender who is also a more consistent hitter? Don't know the answer to that but DD should look. I would rate this as a #5 need which can be let go if we are in a salary bind.

[sk7326]

Astros make sense at the pick, but really a 51-49 sort of edge. When we get to this series, they are all coinflips. But if this team gets 5 or 6 clean starts out of 7 they will be tough.

 

There is not much of the ALDS to rehash - the Red Sox starting pitching was better, and that made all the difference. Even the one bad start Boston had, Cora limited the damage.

 

In the next series and beyond the question to me is whether the Red Sox can get JUST enough production from their 2B/3B/C to keep the offense on schedule. Is those guys can manage to continue to not be dead spots in the lineup we'll be fine.

[mvp 78]

Nobody is taking his salary.

 

If he's all done, maybe he'll retire and help us like Dempster did, but I doubt it.

 

We might try to trade other salaries, like Porcello or whoever we think we can't keep out of Boegy & JBJ.

 

Would would nobody want a BELOW MARKET contract like Pedroia's?

[greenwell]

Any chance Cora has something up his sleeve for the Astros that he saved for the postseason? He should know their players pretty well.

[Nick]

The Yanks will have a ton of budget space to work with this year. They could even choose to go way over the $40M mark for a year or two. They lose a lot of dead weight and role player, but they are sitting pretty, money wise and young talent wise.

 

The Ellsbury contract hurts them for 2 more years, and then they have the $5M buyout in '21. His contract goes longer than Pablo's.

 

We lose HRam this year and Pablo after next year with $5M counting towards 2020.

 

Here's a look at arb projections by MLBTRs

 

+$8.2M Betts ($18.7M)

+$4.8M Bogey ($11.9M)

+$1.8M JBJ ($7.9M)

+$2.4M ERod ($4.8M)

+$1.2M Holt (3.4)

+$0.2M Thornburg 2.3

+$0.3M Leon 2.3

+$0.9M Barnes 1.5

+$0.8M Workman 1.4

+$0.3M Wright 1.4

+$0.6M Hembree 1.2

+$0.2M Smith 1.1

+$0.5M Swihart 1.1

 

This is about $20M in arb raises. The Sox often settle with their players before arb.

 

The Yanks have these projections:

 

Didi Gregorius – $12.4MM

Sonny Gray – $9.1MM

Dellin Betances – $6.4MM

Aaron Hicks – $6.2MM

Luis Severino – $5.1MM

Austin Romine – $2.0MM

Tommy Kahnle – $1.5MM

Greg Bird – $1.5MM

Ronald Torreyes – $900K

 

 

 

Thanks Moon for the infor. $20M is lower than I thought. Good news.

 

So $233M (today per Cot) less Hanley, Kimbrel, Kelly and Pom ($48M) = $185M plus $20M arbitration raises = $205M. $228M is second threashhold, so we have about $23M for bullpen/starter depth. Wright replaces Pom. Johnson and Hector as depth piece. (yes, I'm ignoring slight bump for contract increases for couple of players)

 

Also another 'plus' is that by the time Betts become FA, I bet $25M will already be 'baked in' in the CB Payroll fiugure. That means the delta to aqcuire him will only be around $8-$10M, not $33M if that makes sense.

Edited October 10, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Would would nobody want a BELOW MARKET contract like Pedroia's?

 

I get your point, but it was a below market salary when it was signed. You can disagree, but most feel it was.

 

He's hurt, now. His value is close to zero, unless and until he proves otherwise.

 

He's not going anywhere, except in your dreams.

[moonslav59]

Thanks Moon for the infor. $20M is lower than I thought. Good news.

 

I thought it might be $25-30M, and we do traditionally sign arb guys to higher than expected numbers.

 

[Nick]

Astros make sense at the pick, but really a 51-49 sort of edge. When we get to this series, they are all coinflips. But if this team gets 5 or 6 clean starts out of 7 they will be tough.

 

There is not much of the ALDS to rehash - the Red Sox starting pitching was better, and that made all the difference. Even the one bad start Boston had, Cora limited the damage.

 

In the next series and beyond the question to me is whether the Red Sox can get JUST enough production from their 2B/3B/C to keep the offense on schedule. Is those guys can manage to continue to not be dead spots in the lineup we'll be fine.

 

I think having the home field advantage is huge, especially playing the first two games at home. I think we're better at home.

[Bellhorn04]

if we win the WS Henry will 100% reset the LT in 2019.

 

Not sure they can do it next year even if they want to. The reset and the cliff will probably come together in 2020.

[illinoisredsox]

Would would nobody want a BELOW MARKET contract like Pedroia's?

 

1) He's a 10-5 guy, so he goes no where without his consent. That will mean ponying up more $ to buy said consent.

 

2) He's been hurt for 1 1/2 years. Who is going to chance that, even at a below market contract? Any trade would involve the Sox paying a lot of his contract, which sort of defeats the purpose of the trade.

 

Bottom line, trading him probably costs MORE than his current contract.

[FredLynn]

Nobody is taking his salary.

 

If he's all done, maybe he'll retire and help us like Dempster did, but I doubt it.

 

We might try to trade other salaries, like Porcello or whoever we think we can't keep out of Boegy & JBJ.

 

He might retire....I think he will. His knee is not going to get better and I think he is professional enough to know that he will only hurt the team going forward.

[mvp 78]

He might retire....I think he will. His knee is not going to get better and I think he is professional enough to know that he will only hurt the team going forward.

 

And if he refuses to retire, will he be considered gritty for gutting it out rather than a team player?

[moonslav59]

And if he refuses to retire, will he be considered gritty for gutting it out rather than a team player?

 

I don't think anyone will begrudge him (except you) for taking the money.

 

I hope he comes back, but I'm counting on zero from him going forward.

 

I don't want to change catchers next year. I know many do.

 

I think 2B and 1B are our best chances to improve our offense and lengthen our line-up.

 

I think we need serious pen retooling.

 

[d-money]

I want them to beat Houston. They can win this series. Just gotta execute pitches and get timely hits. Mookie needs to start hitting!

[iortiz]

Sox over Stros all the way....

 

1. If I recall well, 4 weeks ago or so, we were over the Stros in RDiff. The thing is, while Cora had been giving up games plus no Sale & no E-Rod in September, Stros had been playing at full capacity.

 

2. Regarding SP, a healthy Sale is better than Verlader —pitch by pitch. Price is arguably one the best pitchers of the second half, and pitched better than Cole last time; in fact, Cole was kind of lucky —we hit him well. Also, we own Keuchel, remember last time? he was pounded and could be worse. He was lucky too. IMO he is overrated —LOB% and BABIP don’t lie through his career. You know what I think of Porcello, but I’d rather him over Dallas Keuchel any day of the week, and Porcello just pitched a gem against NY.

 

3. Regarding the BP, if you take out of the equation bums like Pomeranz, Thorn, Cuevas, etc. our BP match them pretty well —not to mention our closer is arguably the best in baseball.

 

4. Our offense in the top is better with 2 legit MVPs. Mookie- Benny- Pearce- JD-XB is a better nucleo. The bottom, while is a crap shot —if hot— is better as well Kinsler-Nuñez/Devers-JBJ. Also, we have a couple of great utility players in Holt and SWI who have shown that can hit in clutch situations.

 

5. Regarding Defense, our defense is the best of the majors if you don’t line up Devers. Kinsler at second is vintage Pedroia, and Leon catches very well our top 2 and calls the games like nobody else in the majors. Our CF and RF are gold gloves caliber players.

 

Also, we have the HFA.

 

Said that, I’ll say it again. We will win the WS. So... bring me the Astros or whoever, we are set to win it all.

Edited October 10, 2018 by iortiz