Magic Number Watch

[Slasher9]

AL Pitching.

theres 1 player that is in the top 10 in the following:

ERA

H/9

WAR (pitcher)

K/9

BB/9

IP

GS

 

his name is not Sale.

[sk7326]

It's not 30-50 IP less due to being yanked early and taxing middle RP'ers.

 

It was the DL stints that mostly limited his IP, thereby taxing our 6th and 7th starters.

 

It really comes down - does missing a month of the season matter? I think yes.

 

This is really turning up like the Sabathia-Beckett race in 2007, where that giant innings gap became decisive.

[moonslav59]

It really comes down - does missing a month of the season matter? I think yes.

 

This is really turning up like the Sabathia-Beckett race in 2007, where that giant innings gap became decisive.

 

I'm not arguing that Sale should win, although I do think it is close.

 

If it's about performance level:

 

1. Sale

2. Snell

3. Bauer

 

If it's about giving your team many more innings of top quality pitching:

1. Verlander

2. Kluber

3. Cole

 

Nobody is on both lists.

1.

[sk7326]

I'm not arguing that Sale should win, although I do think it is close.

 

If it's about performance level:

 

1. Sale

2. Snell

3. Bauer

 

If it's about giving your team many more innings of top quality pitching:

1. Verlander

2. Kluber

3. Cole

 

Nobody is on both lists.

1.

 

It IS very close - I agree there (and I should have put more people on the list now that I am looking at bWAR and diving a bit)

 

A pretend ballot since we're here

 

Cy Young

 

1. Verlander - Numbers with Kluber are close, but Verlander was much better against the other playoff contenders (5-2, 3.07 ERA vs 4-3, 3.84 ERA)

2. Sale - He's been pitch to pitch the best guy in the league

3. Snell - Snell is really close. But hey, I'm a Sox fan!

 

Rookie

 

1. Torres - Given a close race, I am inclined to go with younger players. And Torres has been at times spectacular

2. Ohtani - The pitching was disappointing, but the hitting was a genuine surprise.

3. Wendle - Has let the rookies in bWAR, but I do value age and style a bit here - and Wendle is just a bit short on those areas.

 

Manager

 

1. Alex Cora

2. Kevin Cash

3. Bob Melvin

 

Who the hell knows what "best manager" is. And also, with the job really transcending a year's performance (a manager establishes culture which pays off over a longer period of time). These three stand out - though Francona, Hinch are perfectly good choices too.

 

MVP (I think the writers do ten choices, but I'll do 5)

 

1. Betts (easy, the best player on the best team, narrative and numbers align nicely)

2. Trout (he is the utility - could have won 6 MVPs in a row)

3. Ramirez (given folks who are close in WAR, I tend to lean towards WAR built more from offense, due to it just being easier to measure)

4. Chapman (he has had the best defensive season in the league and clearly the hitting has been there too)

5. Martinez (I am not sure of the intangible effects, but I am not saying that is zero ... but he has a 6 win season entirely on offense, and his contribution has coincided with Boston's greatest need)

 

Bregman, Lindor are tough omissions

[notin]

 

Manager

 

1. Alex Cora

2. Kevin Cash

3. Bob Melvin

 

 

Any of these three easily deserve it.

[Kimmi]

could be just 1 as we play NY

 

Yup, 1 is the same as 2 for this series. I want to win at least 1 game. Anything else is just gravy.

 

The Yankees will be motivated for this series, no doubt. One, they don't want us clinching on their turf. Two, they are out for redemption after being swept at Fenway.

 

Cora's priority right now is the postseason. He's not going to go all out to win any game.

 

Could be a tough series.

[Kimmi]

Yup, 1 is the same as 2 for this series. I want to win at least 1 game. Anything else is just gravy.

 

The Yankees will be motivated for this series, no doubt. One, they don't want us clinching on their turf. Two, they are out for redemption after being swept at Fenway.

 

Cora's priority right now is the postseason. He's not going to go all out to win any game.

 

Could be a tough series.

 

Who am I kidding? LOL

 

The Yankees are going DOWN!

[fxkatt]

Yankee game tomorrow most likely rained out, so doubling up on Wed or Thurs.

 

Yeah One Win here in plenty. On the final days at Fenway, we can try to help out Oakland.

[kenmeister]

I'll play!

 

AL MVP - Mike Trout. He's a juggernaut on an otherwise mediocre team. But definitely the most valuable player in the league.

AL CY YOUNG - Edwin Diaz. Closers can win when they are this dominant. He'll probably have the 2nd most saves ever in a single season.

[fxkatt]

I'll play!

 

AL MVP - Mike Trout. He's a juggernaut on an otherwise mediocre team. But definitely the most valuable player in the league.

AL CY YOUNG - Edwin Diaz. Closers can win when they are this dominant. He'll probably have the 2nd most saves ever in a single season.

 

Betts MVP. Snell or possibly Diaz for Cy.

[moonslav59]

Betts MVP. Snell or possibly Diaz for Cy.

 

If Snell is in consideration, then so is Sale, and I'd go with Sale. They are both pretty close in IP.

 

Diaz who?

 

My vote for Cy Young would go to Sandy Leon.

[Nick]

Real Magic # is 4. With each win or Houston loss totaling 4, we'll have the home field advantage throughout.

[moonslav59]

It's all voodoo clown s***.

 

Our "magic number" was zero on August 5th.

[Bellhorn04]

It's all voodoo clown s***.

 

Our "magic number" was zero on August 5th.

 

Here is a question to test the validity of such statements.

 

Let's say that on August 6 you're in a bar and some Yankee fan starts chirping about how it's not over. You tell him it's over. He says 'Wanna bet?'

 

He says he will bet any amount you want, as long as you give him 2 to 1 odds - which is more than fair under the circumstances.

 

Let's assume that this guy is rich and trustworthy and all that - there is no fear of him welshing on the bet.

 

What is the most you would have bet?

 

You really have to try to answer the question honestly.

[Slasher9]

Here is a question to test the validity of such statements.

 

Let's say that on August 6 you're in a bar and some Yankee fan starts chirping about how it's not over. You tell him it's over. He says 'Wanna bet?'

 

He says he will bet any amount you want, as long as you give him 2 to 1 odds - which is more than fair under the circumstances.

 

Let's assume that this guy is rich and trustworthy and all that - there is no fear of him welshing on the bet.

 

What is the most you would have bet?

 

You really have to try to answer the question honestly.

thats a shoebox bet.

[moonslav59]

Here is a question to test the validity of such statements.

 

Let's say that on August 6 you're in a bar and some Yankee fan starts chirping about how it's not over. You tell him it's over. He says 'Wanna bet?'

 

He says he will bet any amount you want, as long as you give him 2 to 1 odds - which is more than fair under the circumstances.

 

Let's assume that this guy is rich and trustworthy and all that - there is no fear of him welshing on the bet.

 

What is the most you would have bet?

 

You really have to try to answer the question honestly.

 

I'd have given 20 to 1 odds and a hundred bucks. Honestly.

 

I'd have given 100 to 1 odds on 20 bucks.

 

I'm not a gambler, so that's a lot to me.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd have given 20 to 1 odds and a hundred bucks. Honestly.

 

I'd have given 100 to 1 odds on 20 bucks.

 

I'm not a gambler, so that's a lot to me.

 

Is a hundred dollars the most you would risk?

[moonslav59]

Is a hundred dollars the most you would risk?

 

I'm a penny-pinching, coupon-clipping miser.

 

$100 bucks is a lot, to me.

[sk7326]

I'll play!

 

AL MVP - Mike Trout. He's a juggernaut on an otherwise mediocre team. But definitely the most valuable player in the league.

AL CY YOUNG - Edwin Diaz. Closers can win when they are this dominant. He'll probably have the 2nd most saves ever in a single season.

 

For a closer to win the Cy Young - generally voters had to have made a mistake. No reliever provides as much value as a starter. That said, I am sympathetic to the idea that relief pitching should not be compared to starting - and effectiveness should be baselined separately.

 

Edwin Diaz has been magnificent. But Blake Treinen and Jose LeClerc have been roughly as good. More to the point, the starter crop has been good enough that I don't feel the need to go to the relief one.

[fxkatt]

If Snell is in consideration, then so is Sale, and I'd go with Sale. They are both pretty close in IP.

 

Diaz who?

 

My vote for Cy Young would go to Sandy Leon.

 

I wasn't aware of Snell's lack of innings. Doesn't he have nearly 20 wins--on that team?

 

Hey, I could vote for Sandy.

 

P.S. The game today is now a night game at 7 due to a drenched field. And Judge will not play. Go Eovaldi. Mow down your old team.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a penny-pinching, coupon-clipping miser.

 

$100 bucks is a lot, to me.

 

Well, you're admitting that it would have been a gamble.

[Slasher9]

there have been some odds defying comebacks in sports but it is very very rare.

I would have called both of these shoebox bets as well and lost....

after game 3 of 2004 ALCS

and this one:

[moonslav59]

I wasn't aware of Snell's lack of innings. Doesn't he have nearly 20 wins--on that team?

 

Hey, I could vote for Sandy.

 

P.S. The game today is now a night game at 7 due to a drenched field. And Judge will not play. Go Eovaldi. Mow down your old team.

 

Snell has 164: Sale has 150.

[moonslav59]

Well, you're admitting that it would have been a gamble.

 

I'm admitting I don't gamble.

 

I was 100% sure we had it on the night of 8/5/18.

[Slasher9]

verlander winning the Cy is a shoebox bet too.....

unless sale throws back to back CG's to end the season. and there is zero chance of that happening.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm admitting I don't gamble.

 

I was 100% sure we had it on the night of 8/5/18.

 

If it was 100%, it wasn't a gamble.

[moonslav59]

If it was 100%, it wasn't a gamble.

 

I don't gamble, so the question was not really relevant.

 

If my name was on 99 pieces of paper and yours was on one, I wouldn't bet on my name being chosen from a hat.

 

I was 100% sure, and that's all I can say.

[moonslav59]

I don't gamble, so the question was not really relevant.

 

If my name was on 99 pieces of paper and yours was on one, I wouldn't bet on my name being chosen from a hat.

 

I was 100% sure, and that's all I can say.

 

There were zero Yankee slips of paper in the hat.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't gamble, so the question was not really relevant.

 

If my name was on 99 pieces of paper and yours was on one, I wouldn't bet on my name being chosen from a hat.

 

I was 100% sure, and that's all I can say.

 

Maybe it's because you're not a gambler that you can be so sure about something like that.

 

When you gamble and put serious money behind such statements you can get burned at it.

[notin]

verlander winning the Cy is a shoebox bet too.....

unless sale throws back to back CG's to end the season. and there is zero chance of that happening.

 

10 years ago, he'd be a better candidate and the argument would be Verlander vs. Snell.

 

But apparently there is a cabal of voters who do consider the advanced metrics and those numbers do support Sale over Verlander.

 

However, with all voters, Verlander is certainly going to be a terrific candidate and, even if he doesn't win, won't miss out by much.

 

But sometimes these votes make up for past awards, such as last year when Sale lost to Kluber. It's always possible Sale gets a "makeup" award from the human voters, since he has never won one and has always been deserving...