Magic Number Watch

[sk7326]

10 years ago, he'd be a better candidate and the argument would be Verlander vs. Snell.

 

But apparently there is a cabal of voters who do consider the advanced metrics and those numbers do support Sale over Verlander.

 

However, with all voters, Verlander is certainly going to be a terrific candidate and, even if he doesn't win, won't miss out by much.

 

But sometimes these votes make up for past awards, such as last year when Sale lost to Kluber. It's always possible Sale gets a "makeup" award from the human voters, since he has never won one and has always been deserving...

 

Verlander is a perfectly good choice for Cy Young. Voters have gotten smarter over time - and have done a better job researching (includes using the advanced metrics). While WAR supports Sale over Verlander - the 50 IP advantage has tangible value outside of the WAR produced.

 

Sale is not a bad choice - and if he won it'd be great.

 

Last year Kluber was the best pitcher in the AL by a pretty significant margin. If anything the makeup call would be for Porcello winning the Cy over Kluber in 2016.

[moonslav59]

Maybe it's because you're not a gambler that you can be so sure about something like that.

 

When you gamble and put serious money behind such statements you can get burned at it.

 

I used to bet...mostly on the NFL. I think I won more than I lost, but one Sunday, my two friends and I lost 27 of 28 bets placed. One of my friends then bet all he owed on Steve Carlton & the Phillies to win his money back. He lost and had to work for the bookie for months.

 

I've never bet since then.

[notin]

Verlander is a perfectly good choice for Cy Young. Voters have gotten smarter over time - and have done a better job researching (includes using the advanced metrics). While WAR supports Sale over Verlander - the 50 IP advantage has tangible value outside of the WAR produced.

 

Sale is not a bad choice - and if he won it'd be great.

 

Last year Kluber was the best pitcher in the AL by a pretty significant margin. If anything the makeup call would be for Porcello winning the Cy over Kluber in 2016.

 

I would disagree Kluber was the best by a “wide margin” last year, especially since voting takes place before the postseason.

 

If anything, you pointed out a potential example of a “makeup vote”, with Kluber getting the nod in 2017 because many felt it was an injustice that he lost in 2016.

 

And while I agree there is value in those extra IP, the fact that Sale has still accrued more value in fewer IP should be a point in his favor. Should be...

[sk7326]

I would disagree Kluber was the best by a “wide margin” last year, especially since voting takes place before the postseason.

 

If anything, you pointed out a potential example of a “makeup vote”, with Kluber getting the nod in 2017 because many felt it was an injustice that he lost in 2016.

 

And while I agree there is value in those extra IP, the fact that Sale has still accrued more value in fewer IP should be a point in his favor. Should be...

 

Kluber was almost 2 wins better than any AL pitcher per bWAR, and neck and neck with Sale in fWAR. Usually for awards I look much harder at bWAR first (since it's built off of runs allowed instead of peripherals). Kluber was brilliant last season before the postseason. He also benefitted by not running out of gas like Sale did.

 

Here is the thing with the quantity/quality argument. WAR is an accumulated stat, but it can also be negative. So a stretch where you pitched like garbage would subtract from WAR. So - for a position player - a high WAR performance from a platoon player in absolute terms has to be looked at skeptically, since his usage was giving him the best chances to succeed. If he faced right-handers, it would likely have been worse. The performance over a smaller number of innings can also be a reflection of usage - keeping a guy away from positions where value can decrease (actually where negative value can be accumulated). It's not a simple numerator/denominator thing.

Edited September 18, 2018 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

Kluber deserved it last year.

 

ERA-

49 Kluber

63 Sale (not even close)

 

WHIP

0.87 Kluber

0.97 Sale

 

OPS Against

.603 Sale

.621 Kluber

 

SIERA

2.59 Sale

2.68 Kluber (very close)

 

 

[moonslav59]

This year...

 

ERA-

43 Sale (Better than Kluber last year)

49 Snell

66 Verlander (significantly behind)

 

WHIP

0.84 Sale

0.93 Verlander

0.98 Snell

 

SIERA

2.29 Sale

2.72 Verlander

3.35 Snell

 

OPS Against

.516 Sale (This number is like Sandy Leon x 9.)

.572 Snell

.619 Verlander (more than 100 points lower)

 

I get the IP is very important. I'm not saying Sale deserves it. It's close.

 

Tie goes to Sandy Leon for Cy Young due to what he's done with Sale & Price.

[sk7326]

This year...

 

ERA-

43 Sale (Better than Kluber last year)

49 Snell

66 Verlander (significantly behind)

 

WHIP

0.84 Sale

0.93 Verlander

0.98 Snell

 

SIERA

2.29 Sale

2.72 Verlander

3.35 Snell

 

OPS Against

.516 Sale (This number is like Sandy Leon x 9.)

.572 Snell

.619 Verlander (more than 100 points lower)

 

I get the IP is very important. I'm not saying Sale deserves it. It's close.

 

Tie goes to Sandy Leon for Cy Young due to what he's done with Sale & Price.

 

I think it's close. Sale wins on the rate stats - but that also acknowledges that he has had fewer opportunities to do both good and bad. There is at least some reason to think that more work would have lowered quality. (see 2017) Sale winning would not be a miscarriage of justice or anything. (same goes for Snell or Kluber)

[moonslav59]

I think it's close. Sale wins on the rate stats - but that also acknowledges that he has had fewer opportunities to do both good and bad. There is at least some reason to think that more work would have lowered quality. (see 2017) Sale winning would not be a miscarriage of justice or anything. (same goes for Snell or Kluber)

 

I wouldn't be upset if Verlander or Snell won, but I'd definitely take Sale over Snell.

 

Verlander's extra innings and GS'd are worth a lot.

 

His 52 more IP is 34% of Sale's total. He starter 7 more games than Sale.

 

One could think about it this way, What are Verlander's stats over his best 25 games and compare those to Sale's, if they are close, then look at his "extra 7 starts." What if his ERA is 4.50 in his worst 7 starts. Is that something in his favor?

 

Now, if it's 3.30, then that has enormous value.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Verlander's first 24 starts:

156 IP (close to Sale)

2.19 ERA

.581 OPS against

 

This is close to Sale, but it is still a little worse. Now, look at his "extra" 8 starts (his last 8):

 

45 IP (about what he has more than Sale)

4.34 ERA

.742 OPS against

 

While this has some value, it's not overpowering value.

[Slasher9]

Sale's history is to fall off a cliff late in the season (the cliff is real!). hence the "DL" stints this year to limit his innings.

verlander wins the Cy....easy.

[Slasher9]

and i'm fine with that.

parade > CY

[sk7326]

I wouldn't be upset if Verlander or Snell won, but I'd definitely take Sale over Snell.

 

Verlander's extra innings and GS'd are worth a lot.

 

His 52 more IP is 34% of Sale's total. He starter 7 more games than Sale.

 

One could think about it this way, What are Verlander's stats over his best 25 games and compare those to Sale's, if they are close, then look at his "extra 7 starts." What if his ERA is 4.50 in his worst 7 starts. Is that something in his favor?

 

Now, if it's 3.30, then that has enormous value.

 

Here's what I came up with:

 

Verlander's first 24 starts:

156 IP (close to Sale)

2.19 ERA

.581 OPS against

 

This is close to Sale, but it is still a little worse. Now, look at his "extra" 8 starts (his last 8):

 

45 IP (about what he has more than Sale)

4.34 ERA

.742 OPS against

 

While this has some value, it's not overpowering value.

 

When you take the ball, your odds of success AND failure are higher. Sale has not had the chance to repeat his September 2017 for instance. While the Red Sox greatly benefit from Sale's starts, the pitching staff did not get the same amount of benefit that the Astros got by just not having to find substitutes. Verlander's struggles lately have hurt his case.

[moonslav59]

Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

 

Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

 

9-3 Johnson

5-2 Velazquez

3-1 Wright

 

Total 17-6 (.739)

 

Of course how the team did when Sale didn't start doesn't matter, but it really didn't hurt the team to have to find starters to take his place.

 

(We are 5-4 in Eovaldi starts.)

[notin]

Kluber was almost 2 wins better than any AL pitcher per bWAR, and neck and neck with Sale in fWAR. Usually for awards I look much harder at bWAR first (since it's built off of runs allowed instead of peripherals). Kluber was brilliant last season before the postseason. He also benefitted by not running out of gas like Sale did.

 

Here is the thing with the quantity/quality argument. WAR is an accumulated stat, but it can also be negative. So a stretch where you pitched like garbage would subtract from WAR. So - for a position player - a high WAR performance from a platoon player in absolute terms has to be looked at skeptically, since his usage was giving him the best chances to succeed. If he faced right-handers, it would likely have been worse. The performance over a smaller number of innings can also be a reflection of usage - keeping a guy away from positions where value can decrease (actually where negative value can be accumulated). It's not a simple numerator/denominator thing.

 

1. Doesn't "runs allowed" involve input from the defense?

 

2. While WAT can go negative, there is a strong trend towards positive. Even the lowest negative players rarely reach -3.0 WAR...

[sk7326]

1. Doesn't "runs allowed" involve input from the defense?

 

2. While WAT can go negative, there is a strong trend towards positive. Even the lowest negative players rarely reach -3.0 WAR...

 

bWAR takes runs allowed and makes adjustments from there. (including defense and such)

fWAR starts with FIP and makes adjustments from there.

[moonslav59]

bWAR takes runs allowed and makes adjustments from there. (including defense and such)

fWAR starts with FIP and makes adjustments from there.

 

Which penalizes pitchers who pitch to contact with success and overvalues high K pitchers who let up more runs..

[sk7326]

Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

 

Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

 

9-3 Johnson

5-2 Velazquez

3-1 Wright

 

Total 17-6 (.739)

 

Of course how the team did when Sale didn't start doesn't matter, but it really didn't hurt the team to have to find starters to take his place.

 

(We are 5-4 in Eovaldi starts.)

 

As you point out, that the Red Sox have capable relievers is incidental. This is a close race and Sale winning would be great.

[Slasher9]

Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

 

Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

 

9-3 Johnson

5-2 Velazquez

3-1 Wright

 

Total 17-6 (.739)

 

i get that the days of W-L for cy young are long over. but the above highlights that Sale hasnt really been important to us this regular season. could be another reason a voter might lean verlander instead......

[Station 13]

Sale's absence has not really hurt the team.

 

Our 6th, 7th and 8th starters have helped us win many games. We're 17-8 in Sale starts (.680)

 

9-3 Johnson

5-2 Velazquez

3-1 Wright

 

Total 17-6 (.739)

 

Of course how the team did when Sale didn't start doesn't matter, but it really didn't hurt the team to have to find starters to take his place.

 

(We are 5-4 in Eovaldi starts.)

 

 

Sale and E-Rod has toss like 20 innings total in the last 2+ months, with Sale at around 8 innings. Bullpen become a disaster in the midst of it. It has definitely hurt the team.

[moonslav59]

Sale and E-Rod has toss like 20 innings total in the last 2+ months, with Sale at around 8 innings. Bullpen become a disaster in the midst of it. It has definitely hurt the team.

 

The pen was imploding before Sale & ERod went on the DL, and the addition of Eovaldi, who has gone as deep as ERod goes and middle/long relievers like Johnson, Velazquez and Wright have taken up the slack of lost starter innings.

 

I'm not saying the pen hasn't suffered, but we have won at a very high rate with Johnson, Velazquez and Wright starting in the place of Sale & ERod.

[notin]

bWAR takes runs allowed and makes adjustments from there. (including defense and such)

fWAR starts with FIP and makes adjustments from there.

 

But if that is your case, Sale has a significant lead in bWAR over Verlander this year. And he would have to be a massive disappointment in those 40 IP to narrow the gap.

 

The missing IP will certainly be a factor, but Sale is a better candidate than many realize...

[moonslav59]

But if that is your case, Sale has a significant lead in bWAR over Verlander this year. And he would have to be a massive disappointment in those 40 IP to narrow the gap.

 

The missing IP will certainly be a factor, but Sale is a better candidate than many realize...

 

It's kind of like the BA title, if someone has too few PAs, he can still win, if he'd still be in the lead after going oh for the differential between his PAs and the min number needed.

[sk7326]

It's kind of like the BA title, if someone has too few PAs, he can still win, if he'd still be in the lead after going oh for the differential between his PAs and the min number needed.

 

Right - and that is a pure rate stat with a minimum number of ABs. (502) The ERA title has a minimum number of innings (162, which Sale has not quite hit).

 

Now looking at the numbers, Sale's IP per start is not greatly lower than Verlander (6.0 vs 6.3). That amounts to about 10-11 innings over the season - again, not much. What really is more relevant is Sale being mostly a noncontributor for the last 2 months of the season. There was a ton of value created in the starts he did make - but that the team has benefitted from his success less frequently than Verlander and Kluber by a pretty wide margin DOES matter - enough to make this pretty close. Again, if Sale wins it is a perfectly acceptable and just result.

[notin]

i get that the days of W-L for cy young are long over. but the above highlights that Sale hasnt really been important to us this regular season. could be another reason a voter might lean verlander instead......

 

Well, how much of that is due to the criminally poor run support he received that the 7-8-9 starters did not?

[Slasher9]

Well, how much of that is due to the criminally poor run support he received that the 7-8-9 starters did not?

 

oh i get it. thats why i had my first sentence. my point was that Moons stats in that particular post only helped my ascertain that Verlander is the layup Cy winner.

[moonslav59]

Right - and that is a pure rate stat with a minimum number of ABs. (502) The ERA title has a minimum number of innings (162, which Sale has not quite hit).

 

Now looking at the numbers, Sale's IP per start is not greatly lower than Verlander (6.0 vs 6.3). That amounts to about 10-11 innings over the season - again, not much. What really is more relevant is Sale being mostly a noncontributor for the last 2 months of the season. There was a ton of value created in the starts he did make - but that the team has benefitted from his success less frequently than Verlander and Kluber by a pretty wide margin DOES matter - enough to make this pretty close. Again, if Sale wins it is a perfectly acceptable and just result.

 

Sale might reach 162 IP.

 

(BTW, it's 502 PAs not ABs.)

[sk7326]

Sale might reach 162 IP.

 

(BTW, it's 502 PAs not ABs.)

 

Of the four Red Sox in serious contention for postseason hardware I'd list Sale as the 2nd likeliest to actually win.

 

I'd list in probability

 

Betts

Sale

Cora

Martinez

[moonslav59]

Of the four Red Sox in serious contention for postseason hardware I'd list Sale as the 2nd likeliest to actually win.

 

I'd list in probability

 

Betts

Sale

Cora

Martinez

 

Looks about right.

 

I'd go with this...

 

Cy Young: Sandy Leon

 

MVP: Betts

 

Silver Slugger: JD

 

Gold Glove: JBJ (CF), Betts (RF) and maybe Leon at Catcher.

[BillyWilliams]

Looks about right.

 

I'd go with this...

 

Cy Young: Sandy Leon

 

MVP: Betts

 

Silver Slugger: JD

 

Gold Glove: JBJ (CF), Betts (RF) and maybe Leon at Catcher.

 

Has sandy leon pitched enough innings to earn the Cy Young? I don't believe he qualifies for the ERA title........

[moonslav59]

Has sandy leon pitched enough innings to earn the Cy Young? I don't believe he qualifies for the ERA title........

 

He'll be the first to win with 0 IP.

 

[BillyWilliams]

He'll be the first to win with 0 IP.

 

 

I guess it would be based on his CERA alone??!!