Magic Number Watch

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s make it religious instead and call it a Divine Number. Or do we go all scientific and call it an Atomic Number?

 

I'd go with Champagne Number.

[S5Dewey]

I'd go with Champagne Number.

 

I like that! From now on that's what it is.

[Kimmi]

How awesome would that be, given that at the start of the season the Yankees were deemed the kings of the world. Judge and Stanton? How could anybody beat them?

 

It would be awesome.

 

I thought the Yankees were the slight favorites going into the season, but I wasn't buying all that talk about how they would be unstoppable or even that they were a clear favorite. I figured it would be a dog fight all season, possibly going down to the last series, with the Sox having as good a chance as the Yankees to win the division.

 

I honestly never imagined that we would have a 10.5 game lead at any point in the season. Life is good.

[Kimmi]

I'd go with Champagne Number.

 

Yeah, I like that one too.

[Kimmi]

In case anyone missed it, Tito's Tribe are the first team to officially clinch a division title.

 

Congrats to them.

[notin]

In case anyone missed it, Tito's Tribe are the first team to officially clinch a division title.

 

Congrats to them.

 

Wow. Their Champagne Number has officially reached zero...

[sk7326]

It would be awesome.

 

I thought the Yankees were the slight favorites going into the season, but I wasn't buying all that talk about how they would be unstoppable or even that they were a clear favorite. I figured it would be a dog fight all season, possibly going down to the last series, with the Sox having as good a chance as the Yankees to win the division.

 

I honestly never imagined that we would have a 10.5 game lead at any point in the season. Life is good.

 

Coming into the season, people really slept on the Red Sox. I mean look at last year. Pedroia and Price had big injury issues. The offense never replaced Ortiz. None of the kids made a leap. 3rd base was a giant vortex of suck for most of the season. There was a strong negative vibe, and it feels like a bad season. They also won 93 games and their 2nd straight AL East. I mean even BEFORE adding JD Martinez, there was a lot of reason to think this team was going to get better without doing much of anything. Of course we DID add Martinez.

[Kimmi]

[Kimmi]

Coming into the season, people really slept on the Red Sox. I mean look at last year. Pedroia and Price had big injury issues. The offense never replaced Ortiz. None of the kids made a leap. 3rd base was a giant vortex of suck for most of the season. There was a strong negative vibe, and it feels like a bad season. They also won 93 games and their 2nd straight AL East. I mean even BEFORE adding JD Martinez, there was a lot of reason to think this team was going to get better without doing much of anything. Of course we DID add Martinez.

 

I completely agree.

[mvp 78]

Coming into the season, people really slept on the Red Sox. I mean look at last year. Pedroia and Price had big injury issues. The offense never replaced Ortiz. None of the kids made a leap. 3rd base was a giant vortex of suck for most of the season. There was a strong negative vibe, and it feels like a bad season. They also won 93 games and their 2nd straight AL East. I mean even BEFORE adding JD Martinez and Cora, there was a lot of reason to think this team was going to get better without doing much of anything. Of course we DID add Martinez and Cora.

 

ftfy

[Station 13]

 

could be just 1 as we play NY

[S5Dewey]

could be just 1 as we play NY

 

It'll either be 2 or Champagne after the game.

[Station 13]

It'll either be 2 or Champagne after the game.

 

lol that's what I meant. We could consider it 1 as we head into NY.

[iortiz]

Stars are aligning and we could see the best Red Sox team in history:

 

Best record in baseball

3 ALE division in a row

106+ Wins

MVP winner

CY winner

WS

[sk7326]

Stars are aligning and we could see the best Red Sox team in history:

 

Best record in baseball

3 ALE division in a row

106+ Wins

MVP winner

CY winner

WS

 

There won't be a Cy winner - Sale simply has not pitched enough.

[moonslav59]

Stars are aligning and we could see the best Red Sox team in history:

 

Best record in baseball

3 ALE division in a row

106+ Wins

MVP winner

CY winner

WS

 

...and a slight chance at a triple crown or runner-up MVP.

[moonslav59]

There won't be a Cy winner - Sale simply has not pitched enough.

 

You are probably right, but even the WAR number that is highly influenced by innings pitched has Sale ahead of Verlander and others....

 

6.2 Sale (150 IP)

6.0 Verlander (202 IP) & Bauer (166 IP)

5.7 G Cole (187)

5.1 Severino (179)

4.8 Kluber (195)

4.7 Carrasco (176)

4.2 Clevinger (188)

3.9 Snell (164)

 

ERA-

43 Sale

49 Snell

50 Bauer

66 Kluber & Verlander

69 Clevinger

71 Cole

77 Price

 

 

[sk7326]

You are probably right, but even the WAR number that is highly influenced by innings pitched has Sale ahead of Verlander and others....

 

6.2 Sale (150 IP)

6.0 Verlander (202 IP) & Bauer (166 IP)

5.7 G Cole (187)

5.1 Severino (179)

4.8 Kluber (195)

4.7 Carrasco (176)

4.2 Clevinger (188)

3.9 Snell (164)

 

ERA-

43 Sale

49 Snell

50 Bauer

66 Kluber & Verlander

69 Clevinger

71 Cole

77 Price

 

 

 

Sale has been the best pitcher in the AL by a mile when he has pitched. The WAR numbers CLEARLY show that. However, there is significant value in bulk which WAR does some disservice to - it's an inning a middle reliever doesn't pitch - which Sale is now way behind in.

 

Verlander is my pick. Sale winning would be awesome, and there is a solid case for him. But Verlander's IP puts him over the top for me.

[moonslav59]

Sale has been the best pitcher in the AL by a mile when he has pitched. The WAR numbers CLEARLY show that. However, there is significant value in bulk which WAR does some disservice to - it's an inning a middle reliever doesn't pitch - which Sale is now way behind in.

 

Verlander is my pick. Sale winning would be awesome, and there is a solid case for him. But Verlander's IP puts him over the top for me.

 

I actually think WAR gives too much cred to innings and not quality, although I know 40 more innings has a lot of value.

[sk7326]

I actually think WAR gives too much cred to innings and not quality, although I know 40 more innings has a lot of value.

 

I think that is fair to a point. But again, each inning a good starter pitches is an inning an inferior pitcher is not - and this is especially acute when a starter keeps turning the game over in the 5th or 6th inning. I know the game is more bullpen-centric than ever, but it means having a real workhorse more valuable (at least in the regular season). WAR does a good job with combining quality and quantity - but I think the quantity has some value outside of what WAR captures. And 40 innings is a lot.

[Slasher9]

i'm not sure about champagne number for division title.

do we do the whole champagne and goggles thing for division title?

i'd really just prefer they just hug and chug a couple of beers and save the real celebrating for October.

[iortiz]

There won't be a Cy winner - Sale simply has not pitched enough.

 

Is there minimum of IP to be considered? I still hear his name in the mix.

[iortiz]

...and a slight chance at a triple crown or runner-up MVP.

 

yeah, if JD makes the triple crown, he will win the MVP as well, I guess.

[sk7326]

Is there minimum of IP to be considered? I still hear his name in the mix.

 

It should be in the mix - he has been amazing. But right now he is 30+ innings behind the other starters. So some of the inherent value of a #1 starter (allow the manager to not have to burn bullpen staff once every five games) has not been there. Every inning Sale pitches is an inning an inferior player doesn't.

[iortiz]

Sale has been the best pitcher in the AL by a mile when he has pitched. The WAR numbers CLEARLY show that. However, there is significant value in bulk which WAR does some disservice to - it's an inning a middle reliever doesn't pitch - which Sale is now way behind in.

 

Verlander is my pick. Sale winning would be awesome, and there is a solid case for him. But Verlander's IP puts him over the top for me.

 

Hopefully most of voters see this.

[moonslav59]

It's not 30-50 IP less due to being yanked early and taxing middle RP'ers.

 

It was the DL stints that mostly limited his IP, thereby taxing our 6th and 7th starters.

[FredLynn]

Magic number=2. One win in the Bronx and the Sox can celebrate on the Yankees home turf.

As Jackie Gleason said, "How sweet it is"!

[notin]

Sale has been the best pitcher in the AL by a mile when he has pitched. The WAR numbers CLEARLY show that. However, there is significant value in bulk which WAR does some disservice to - it's an inning a middle reliever doesn't pitch - which Sale is now way behind in.

 

Verlander is my pick. Sale winning would be awesome, and there is a solid case for him. But Verlander's IP puts him over the top for me.

 

Both fWAR and bWAR still have Sale for the AL leader. If his IP becomes an issue, Verlander (2nd in fWAR) and Blake Snell (2nd in bWAR) both do become legitimate candidates...

[notin]

I actually think WAR gives too much cred to innings and not quality, although I know 40 more innings has a lot of value.

 

To me, the bottom line is - if you're worth more fWAR or bWAR with fewer IP, that should be an argument in your favor. After all, if a player hit 10 more home runs in 30 fewer at-bats, you don't hold it against him...

[iortiz]

To me, the bottom line is - if you're worth more fWAR or bWAR with fewer IP, that should be an argument in your favor. After all, if a player hit 10 more home runs in 30 fewer at-bats, you don't hold it against him...

 

I see it the same way. If WAR considers IPs as an important metric and you are still winning with 40 IP fewer, there's no question you are the best pitcher —which the later is what I have understood voters assess.

 

It's going to be interesting.

Edited September 17, 2018 by iortiz