Rafael Devers struggles/triumphs and the future

[Slasher9]

I usually hate the "spotlight" argument.

 

The spotlight is a real thing. Even more than just playoffs. Some players can’t handle playing daily in an environment like Boston or NY but will thrive in oh let’s say Milwaukee....

Spotlight, the cliff, and clutch are the Trifecta of Reality (ToR)

[Slasher9]

I know he never failed a test, but there were whispers surrounding Bagwell. Who knows. Certainly, the possibility of a player using steroids changes our perception of things. Most notably, Dan Duquette was probably right when he said Clemens was in the twilight of his career. Duquette was highly criticized for making that statement until we learned, later on, about Clemens' PED usage. Likewise, if Bagwell used the juice, maybe the Red Sox didn't trade away such a great player after all. We don't have the evidence that Bagwell used PEDs but he played in the steroids era, fit the profile, and may have used them.

 

Bagwell 100% was a steroid guy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers is going to get a longer leash, but I wonder if his struggles continue if the Sox would send him down next month and deal for a guy like Moustakas, who would provide a steadier presence to a lineup that has become increasingly top heavy

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I remember the Anderson for Bagwell trade, a prominent vet said he was one of the tougher relievers he had to face and recommended the move. I remember at the time thinking sure, why not? We see these trades all the time. Of course we had no idea Bagwell would turn into Bagwell and I remain bitter.

[notin]

I know he never failed a test, but there were whispers surrounding Bagwell. Who knows. Certainly, the possibility of a player using steroids changes our perception of things. Most notably, Dan Duquette was probably right when he said Clemens was in the twilight of his career. Duquette was highly criticized for making that statement until we learned, later on, about Clemens' PED usage. Likewise, if Bagwell used the juice, maybe the Red Sox didn't trade away such a great player after all. We don't have the evidence that Bagwell used PEDs but he played in the steroids era, fit the profile, and may have used them.

 

 

The buzz on Bagwell didn't start until almost 20 years after that trade. I'm sure the Sox had a few steroid users between that deal and the start of the buzz...

[Maxbialystock]

When is it time to think about denoting Devers?

 

The Bradley trade thread was started a month ago. Devers had been as bad or worse since that time. At some point, should the Sox think about maybe trading for an infielder like Jed Lowrie or Logan Forsythe or David Freeze and demoting Devers?

 

Bradley is a completely different case--a lot older and a lot more struggles in the past than Devers. We have every reason to doubt JBJ. Devers is 21 and looked pretty good with the Sox last year.

[OH FOY]

Remember him all the way to High School, saw him at Double AA too, he was not a long and wiry guy, he was always built like a Fire Plug. Short and stocky. On Bagwell. Always a good hitter.

[notin]

Devers is going to get a longer leash, but I wonder if his struggles continue if the Sox would send him down next month and deal for a guy like Moustakas, who would provide a steadier presence to a lineup that has become increasingly top heavy

 

Moustakas would put the Sox over the payroll limits. Someone cheaper like Freese or Forsythe fits their budget better.

 

An interesting thought that might work is Bradley for Moustakas. But 2+ years of Bradley for a rental 3b might be a deal Dombrowski doesn't like to make...

[notin]

Bradley is a completely different case--a lot older and a lot more struggles in the past than Devers. We have every reason to doubt JBJ. Devers is 21 and looked pretty good with the Sox last year.

 

And Devers looks pretty weak this year.

 

While demoting him might not be the best thing for Devers, playing him everyday might not be the best thing for the Sox. Bradley contributes defensively, making his struggles at the plate a little more tolerable. If the goal is to win a World Series this year, is Devers with his offensive struggles and defensive limitations really the best option at third for the rest of thr season?

[Bellhorn04]

Spotlight, the cliff, and clutch are the Trifecta of Reality (ToR)

 

Very well played, Slasher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moustakas would put the Sox over the payroll limits. Someone cheaper like Freese or Forsythe fits their budget better.

 

An interesting thought that might work is Bradley for Moustakas. But 2+ years of Bradley for a rental 3b might be a deal Dombrowski doesn't like to make...

 

Moustakas is cheaper than Freese. He is on a 1 yr $4 mil deal. The prorated portion would be around $1.7 mil if dealt at the deadline

[Bellhorn04]

And Devers looks pretty weak this year.

 

While demoting him might not be the best thing for Devers, playing him everyday might not be the best thing for the Sox. Bradley contributes defensively, making his struggles at the plate a little more tolerable. If the goal is to win a World Series this year, is Devers with his offensive struggles and defensive limitations really the best option at third for the rest of thr season?

 

Have to give him some more time yet, I think. If he turns it around it would be a major shot in the arm. Also I seem to be hearing more positive comments about his defense.

 

As always I let Cora and DD figure this stuff out for me...

[notin]

Moustakas is cheaper than Freese. He is on a 1 yr $4 mil deal. The prorated portion would be around $1.7 mil if dealt at the deadline

 

Moustakas is already in to his plate appearances incentive bonuses and has a $1mill buyout as opposed to Freese, whose base salary is $4.25mill with a $500k buyout.

 

Moustakas is more expensive, but it's a lot closer than I realized. The only advantage to Freese is the comparable dirt cheap asking price..

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox would likely have to part with a player in the minor league system that they’d rather no jettison, but if Devers doesn’t come back to his 2017 production, the bottom of your order is especially barren. Nunez, Devers, Bradley, Vasquez/Leon is abhorrent currently. Once crunch time comes, teams will pitch around JDM and the bottom of the order will squander opportunity after opportunity

[OH FOY]

The Sox would likely have to part with a player in the minor league system that they’d rather no jettison, but if Devers doesn’t come back to his 2017 production, the bottom of your order is especially barren. Nunez, Devers, Bradley, Vasquez/Leon is abhorrent currently. Once crunch time comes, teams will pitch around JDM and the bottom of the order will squander opportunity after opportunity

 

Absolutely, this is going to be a problem. That's why you want Betts up as many times as possible in a game.

Lets see up to this point.

RISP

JBJ .150

Vazquez .179

Nunez .239

Devers .203

Leon .263

Edited June 10, 2018 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Notice I didn’t include Holt, who is expect to be replaced by Betts once he’s healthy. You can only go so far on Betts, Bogey, JDM, Moreland and Beni. You’ll need someone else at the bottom to hit. The Sox are giving a free inning per turn of the order to every team they play

[notin]

Notice I didn’t include Holt, who is expect to be replaced by Betts once he’s healthy. You can only go so far on Betts, Bogey, JDM, Moreland and Beni. You’ll need someone else at the bottom to hit. The Sox are giving a free inning per turn of the order to every team they play

 

Disagree. I'm sure i can find a few World Series champions with weak bottoms of the order.

 

The Sox are a pitching-first team right now...

[Station 13]

Disagree. I'm sure i can find a few World Series champions with weak bottoms of the order.

 

The Sox are a pitching-first team right now...

 

This team has been shut down in two straight post season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly, it gets far more concerning when you’re facing Verlander, Morton, Cole and Keuchel and they can effectively pitch around JD for the whole series

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Bradley is a completely different case--a lot older and a lot more struggles in the past than Devers. We have every reason to doubt JBJ. Devers is 21 and looked pretty good with the Sox last year.

 

This.

[moonslav59]

This team has been shut down in two straight post season.

 

This team is not those teams.

 

We added JD and have players returning from injury.

 

We have addition by subtraction with players like Pablito, HRam, Rutledge, A Hill, Young, Buch, Hanigan and other.

[jacksonianmarch]

Didn’t HanRam hit .667 against Houston in the ALDS?

[notin]

This team has been shut down in two straight post season.

 

What's your point?

 

This team has also made the last two post-seasons and only one other American League team can make that claim.

 

Post-seasons can be heavily dependant on who gets hot, something any Major Leaguer is capable of doing...

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s not actually true. The postseason is typically dominated by good pitching and if 4 guys in your lineup are auto outs, then good pitching will dominate your lineup

[moonslav59]

That’s not actually true. The postseason is typically dominated by good pitching and if 4 guys in your lineup are auto outs, then good pitching will dominate your lineup

 

Have you looked at the line-ups of recent WS winners and losers?

 

Most have had 2-3 slots below .700.

 

Even the 2017 Dodgers saw their 7-10 players by PAs all below .740 with one at .678. The Astros saw their 7th highest PA player bat .666.

 

2016: (#PA ranking that season)

Cubs

#5 .631

#8 .684

Guardians:

#6 .693

#9 .527

#10 .591

#11 .695

#12 .579

#13 .602 (all over 150 PAs)

 

Before 2016, we saw a lot of futility at numerous batting slots.

2015:

KCR:

#2 .614 (Yes, their second most PA player, Escobar, hit .614!)

#6 .706

#7 .552

#9 .640

#12 .691(225 PAs)

NYM:

#4 .703

#5 .647

#6 .699

#7 .688

#9 .576

#11 .607 (206 PAs)

If this isn't proof, look at the 2014 KCR...

 

2014: NOBODY hit over .783!

#2 .694

#3 .692

#4 .702

#5 .632

#6 .710

#9 .632 (500 PAs)

#10 .651 (290 PAs)

7 of their top 10 PA players were under .710!

 

Imagine if the Sox had a line-up like this one! Our fans go nutty with just 2-3 guys under .710.

 

The winning team, the SFG, saw 4 of their top 9 PA plaayers under .713 with one under .600.

 

Teams often win with multiple "black holes", and I'm still not convinced Vaz/Leon, Devers and JBJ will be black holes all season long.

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

Have you looked at the line-ups of recent WS winners and losers?

 

Most have had 2-3 slots below .700.

 

Even the 2017 Dodgers saw their 7-10 players by PAs all below .740 with one at .678. The Astros saw their 7th highest PA player bat .666.

 

2016: (#PA ranking that season)

Cubs

#5 .631

#8 .684

Guardians:

#6 .693

#9 .527

#10 .591

#11 .695

#12 .579

#13 .602 (all over 150 PAs)

 

Before 2016, we saw a lot of futility at numerous batting slots.

2015:

KCR:

#2 .614 (Yes, their second most PA player, Escobar, hit .614!)

#6 .706

#7 .552

#9 .640

#12 .691(225 PAs)

NYM:

#4 .703

#5 .647

#6 .699

#7 .688

#9 .576

#11 .607 (206 PAs)

If this isn't proof, look at the 2014 KCR...

 

2014: NOBODY hit over .783!

#2 .694

#3 .692

#4 .702

#5 .632

#6 .710

#9 .632 (500 PAs)

#10 .651 (290 PAs)

7 of their top 10 PA players were under .710!

 

Imagine if the Sox had a line-up like this one! Our fans go nutty with just 2-3 guys under .710.

 

The winning team, the SFG, saw 4 of their top 9 PA plaayers under .713 with one under .600.

 

Teams often win with multiple "black holes", and I'm still not convinced Vaz/Leon, Devers and JBJ will be black holes all season long.

 

 

 

 

I think that slugging can get you into the playoffs, but its pitching, defense, and timely hitting that win championships. As long as the Sox SP stay healthy there is a reasonable chance that if they get into the playoffs we could compete for a ring this year.

[moonslav59]

I think that slugging can get you into the playoffs, but its pitching, defense, and timely hitting that win championships. As long as the Sox SP stay healthy there is a reasonable chance that if they get into the playoffs we could compete for a ring this year.

 

Certainly hitting, pitching and fielding all contribute to a team's chances at getting into the playoffs and then winning it all, but there is no clear path to winning. Teams have won with just about no hitting. The Royals went to the WS with nobody over .783 and a blah starting rotation in 2014.

 

I do agree that pitching seems like the most needed aspect of winning in the playoffs, and our staff looks pretty good by the numbers and even better on paper, if you judge players by their last 2-3 years.

 

Yes, we need Price and others to be healthy for the playoffs. I'm also hoping we find a way to rest Sale more often, so he can be stronger in October.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, we aren't talking about 8 and 9, we are talking right now about 6-9. When Betts comes back, you are looking at a lineup of

 

1. Betts RF

2. Benintendi LF

3. Martinez DH

4. Moreland 1B

5. Bogaerts SS

6. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Nunez 2B

9. Vaz or Leon C

 

If Pedey cannot come back his usual self (which is looking more likely by the day), then you are looking at a black hole in your 6-9 spots. Add to that the fact that Moreland is playing way over his head and there isn't much room to go up for Beni, Betts or JDM and likely a continued current approach of Bogaerts, then your top 5 is likely going to decrease at least a touch going forward. Your top 5 is maxed and likely looking at slightly less productivity over the next 100 games. Currently, your 6-9 spot has given you this:

 

#6- .234/.310/.414

#7- .235/.292/.332

#8- .204/.265/.317

#9- .236/.300/.349

 

That's abysmal, but place in the order changes with the pitchers faced. The better idea is to look at the positions

As C- .589- 13th in AL

As 2B- .626- 10th in AL

As 3b- .662- 14th in AL

 

If it weren't for the fact that Beni has hit like an MVP when he plays CF (1.104OPS vs .827OP as LF), the position would be a graveyard as well as JBJ (if he qualified) would be the 10th worst offensive player by OPS in all of baseball. When JBJ plays, you are adding a .603OPS to the positions noted above.

 

I get that seasons past have seen teams with lesser offensive profiles win the title. But looking at those teams...

 

2017 HOU- Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Correia and Jose Altuve were .900+ in OPS. Bregman, Springer, Reddick, Gurriel, and Marisnick were .800+. McCann was .759 at a premium position. That's 9 guys. Their backups by the postseason were a well past his prime Beltran (who didn't play much in the postseason) and Aoki who's game is to get on base and steal some bases, not hit for power

 

2016 CHC- Rizzo and Bryant were .900+. Zobrist, Fowler, and Contreras (who ended up catching the lions share of playoff games) were .800+. Baez, Russell, and Soler were .730+, which isn't great, but they did pop 47HR between them in what amounted to 2 full time positions. The only regular come the postseason who remained in the lineup and was abysmal (sub .700OPS) was Heyward.

 

2015 KC- Entirely different type of roster construction. They had above average speed throughout the lineup which Boston doesn't have beyond 2 players (Beni and Betts). They stole some bases, but also took the extra base better than anyone. They played defense better than anyone. They had a bullpen that could come into a game with 5 innings to go and shut teams down. But looking at their lineup... They had 6 guys post OPS+ of 119 or better (Zobrist, Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain and Morales). Escobar had no business batting 2nd, I agree there, but he did chip in with 17 stolen bases. Their catcher didn't walk at all, but did pop 21HRs in Perez. Their RF spot was a mess until they decided to put Dyson out there who stole 26 bases in half time. While they had their warts offensively, they had more depth in their lineup. Guys who weren't OPS'ing high could either hit for power or steal some bases. You don't have that with Nunez, Leon, or JBJ right now. Devers hitting over 20HRs might be enough of a saving grace to justify his spot

 

2014 SF- Every single guy in their lineup was OPS+ of 104 or higher. They weren't filled with amazing hitters aside from Posey, but they were consistent throughout. They also had the best pitcher I have ever seen in a postseason win them 3 games in the world series and only need the rest of the team to figure out one win

[moonslav59]

Slav, we aren't talking about 8 and 9, we are talking right now about 6-9. When Betts comes back, you are looking at a lineup of

 

1. Betts RF

2. Benintendi LF

3. Martinez DH

4. Moreland 1B

5. Bogaerts SS

6. Devers 3B

7. JBJ CF

8. Nunez 2B

9. Vaz or Leon C

 

If Pedey cannot come back his usual self (which is looking more likely by the day), then you are looking at a black hole in your 6-9 spots. Add to that the fact that Moreland is playing way over his head and there isn't much room to go up for Beni, Betts or JDM and likely a continued current approach of Bogaerts, then your top 5 is likely going to decrease at least a touch going forward. Your top 5 is maxed and likely looking at slightly less productivity over the next 100 games. Currently, your 6-9 spot has given you this:

 

#6- .234/.310/.414

#7- .235/.292/.332

#8- .204/.265/.317

#9- .236/.300/.349

 

That's abysmal, but place in the order changes with the pitchers faced. The better idea is to look at the positions

As C- .589- 13th in AL

As 2B- .626- 10th in AL

As 3b- .662- 14th in AL

 

If it weren't for the fact that Beni has hit like an MVP when he plays CF (1.104OPS vs .827OP as LF), the position would be a graveyard as well as JBJ (if he qualified) would be the 10th worst offensive player by OPS in all of baseball. When JBJ plays, you are adding a .603OPS to the positions noted above.

 

I get that seasons past have seen teams with lesser offensive profiles win the title. But looking at those teams...

 

2017 HOU- Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Correia and Jose Altuve were .900+ in OPS. Bregman, Springer, Reddick, Gurriel, and Marisnick were .800+. McCann was .759 at a premium position. That's 9 guys. Their backups by the postseason were a well past his prime Beltran (who didn't play much in the postseason) and Aoki who's game is to get on base and steal some bases, not hit for power

 

2016 CHC- Rizzo and Bryant were .900+. Zobrist, Fowler, and Contreras (who ended up catching the lions share of playoff games) were .800+. Baez, Russell, and Soler were .730+, which isn't great, but they did pop 47HR between them in what amounted to 2 full time positions. The only regular come the postseason who remained in the lineup and was abysmal (sub .700OPS) was Heyward.

 

2015 KC- Entirely different type of roster construction. They had above average speed throughout the lineup which Boston doesn't have beyond 2 players (Beni and Betts). They stole some bases, but also took the extra base better than anyone. They played defense better than anyone. They had a bullpen that could come into a game with 5 innings to go and shut teams down. But looking at their lineup... They had 6 guys post OPS+ of 119 or better (Zobrist, Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain and Morales). Escobar had no business batting 2nd, I agree there, but he did chip in with 17 stolen bases. Their catcher didn't walk at all, but did pop 21HRs in Perez. Their RF spot was a mess until they decided to put Dyson out there who stole 26 bases in half time. While they had their warts offensively, they had more depth in their lineup. Guys who weren't OPS'ing high could either hit for power or steal some bases. You don't have that with Nunez, Leon, or JBJ right now. Devers hitting over 20HRs might be enough of a saving grace to justify his spot

 

2014 SF- Every single guy in their lineup was OPS+ of 104 or higher. They weren't filled with amazing hitters aside from Posey, but they were consistent throughout. They also had the best pitcher I have ever seen in a postseason win them 3 games in the world series and only need the rest of the team to figure out one win

 

1st of all, I do not believe our 6-9 hitters will all be under .700 or .710 by season's end.

 

Everyone talks about Moreland coming back to earth, but refuse to believe those under performing playerss will come back to earth (norm) as well.

 

The fact remains, many teams have won in the last 4-5 years with several black holes.

 

The Royals won without hitting or starting pitching. Yes, we don't have the speed or defense they had, but our pen is pretty good and our hitters and SP'ers blow them away.

 

We can win with 3 black holes, but I firmly believe we don't have 3-4 black holes just because a 2 month sample size says so.

 

Several of the "black holes" have an OPS over .800 the last 4 weeks. Their career numbers scream thaat they are not sub .700 hitters, but you and others feel that two month sample sizes dictate who someone is forever.

 

With all due respect, this thinking is....Lunacy.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you are looking at things with rosy glasses, but you we both have the tincture of time to see how things go. If the sox do address the lineup, they will do it in late July, so we have a month and a half to see where things shake out.

 

The guys in question are JBJ, the catcher duo, Nunez, and Devers.

 

JBJ has a history of streaks, clearly, but he has shown no evidence that he will snap out of it. Also, he has proven to be able to hit like s*** for a whole season during his earlier years. There is a chance he gets his act together, but there is also a good chance that he never recovers to the point of being a useful offensive player

 

I have no faith in Leon and Vasquez. Neither can hit well. Vaz got a nice contract out of a unicorn season for him. They will continue to be a black hole

 

Nunez doesn't look right. He isn't a great hitter at baseline aside from high BABIP seasons the last 2 years. I wonder if he is injured. Holt will sub in for him, but Holt has proven to be great in short samples but terrible when relied upon heavily

 

Devers, who knows. He's an uber talented hitter who has a huge hole in his swing and has shown no ability to work on it

 

There is no guarantee your guys rebound. We shall see over the next 6 weeks if they do